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ABC News
National
Andrew McGarry

Ukraine's Kalush Orchestra are the hot favourites for this year's Eurovision Song Contest — what happens if they win?

Kalush Orchestra are Ukraine's entry for this year's Eurovision Song Contest, and they are favourites to win with their song, Stefania. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)

It's that time of the year again, when performers, fans and pundits gather for the longest-running international televised music competition: the Eurovision Song Contest. 

To be held in Turin, 40 countries will be represented.

However, the one that everyone will be watching will be Ukraine.

While the war continues to rage less than 2,000km away, the folk-rap band Kalush Orchestra will be performing on the Eurovision stage.

The group originally finished second in the Ukrainian national final on February 12 behind Alina Pash.

However, Pash came under investigation over a previous visit to Russian-controlled Crimea in 2015 — it is illegal under Ukrainian law to travel to Crimea via any other country, including Russia.

Pash had provided authorities with information on how she entered the region but, after the investigation, announced she was withdrawing from Eurovision and a decision was taken to send the runners-up instead.

Within two weeks of the national final, Russia invaded Ukraine and the conflict is still going on.

Almost immediately after the invasion, Ukraine announced that men between the ages of 18 and 60 were not allowed to leave the country, in anticipation that they may be called to fight.

Kalush Orchestra brought Ukrainian flags but chose less colourful outfits for their official entry to Eurovision at the contest's opening ceremony this week. (Reuters: Yara Nardi)

The all-male Kalush Orchestra had to receive special permission to leave Ukraine to compete in Eurovision.

Instead of filming their "postcard" video for the contest at home — as is traditional — they had to do it using a green screen in Israel while performing at one of the pre-Eurovision concerts.

Their song, Stefania, will be sung in Ukrainian, but the translated lyrics include the line: "I'll always find my way home, even if all roads are destroyed." 

The format of the contest gives Ukraine a big chance of winning. The winner is decided by voting, with half the vote coming from the public — the televote — and the other half from music and entertainment industry juries.

Given the focus on events in Ukraine, it is expected that Kalush Orchestra will receive a huge vote from the public.

All 40 countries vote, with each country producing a maximum 12 points for the most popular down to 1 point for the 10th most popular.

Since countries cannot vote for themselves, the maximum they can receive from the televote is 39 times 12, or 468 votes. Another maximum 468 votes are available from the juries.

From the time the contest has moved to a double set of votes in 2016, with only one exception, the winning score has been between 498 and 534.

If Ukraine sweeps the board with broad public support, then Kalush Orchestra will potentially come close to wrapping up victory before the jury scores come in.  

What happens if Ukraine can't host?

The Eurovision tradition is that the winning country hosts the following year.

If Ukraine is successful on May 15 (AEST), it is unlikely the country would be in a position to host, given the issues of finances, security and available infrastructure following the current conflict.

Should the winning country be unable for financial or other reasons, the hosting duties normally go to one of the bigger European nations.

The last time the winning country did not host was Israel, in 1980, after victories in 1979 and 1980. The 1980 contest was held in the Netherlands.

Eurovision organisers, the European Broadcasting Union, have not commented on what might happened next year if Ukraine wins.

However, these days it's expected that hosting duties would fall to one of the "Big Five" countries: United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, who automatically qualify for each year's final.

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