Residents of Belgorod, a Russian border city, are living in constant fear following a recent Ukrainian missile attack that resulted in numerous casualties and damage. The attack, which occurred during the New Year's holiday weekend, left dozens of people dead and injured. This incident is just one example of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine that is increasingly encroaching on Russian territory.
In addition to the attack on Belgorod, there have been other strikes on critical infrastructure within Russia. A fuel export terminal in the Baltic Sea region was rocked by an explosion caused by a Ukrainian drone, forcing the suspension of operations for several days. Another drone attack struck one of Russia's largest refineries in the Black Sea port of Tuapse, igniting a fire. Furthermore, there have been attacks on a gunpowder factory and military facilities in various regions of Russia.
These attacks pose a significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin's efforts to maintain an impression of normalcy within the country. As he ramps up his campaign ahead of the presidential election in March, Putin had hoped to reassure Russians that the war with Ukraine had minimal impact on their daily lives. However, the increasingly frequent Ukrainian attacks have shattered this illusion, bringing the conflict directly onto Russian soil.
Experts point to Ukraine's increased capacity to strike back at Russia as the reason for these attacks on critical infrastructure. Michael Kofman, a military expert with the Carnegie Endowment, highlights the heightened Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets, including cities like Belgorod and military bases in Crimea.
The impact of these attacks on the Russian population is profound. Thousands of Russians have signed petitions in support of Boris Nadezhdin, a liberal politician whose main campaign issue is ending the war. The wives of soldiers involved in the partial mobilization in 2022 have also called for their discharge. Despite strict bans on protests, hundreds of people in Bashkortostan province rallied and clashed with the police to protest the jailing of a local activist. These incidents highlight the growing discontent and frustration among the Russian populace.
The December 30 attack on Belgorod was particularly shocking, leaving residents traumatized. The barrage of missiles struck the city during a holiday weekend when people were out shopping, ice skating, and celebrating New Year's festivities. The attack resulted in the death of 25 people, including five children, and over 100 injuries. Witnesses described disturbing scenes of horrific injuries, pools of blood staining sidewalks, and shattered baby carriages.
The aftermath of the attack has left a lasting impact on the city. Nearly 600 apartments and numerous private homes were damaged, with shrapnel puncturing over 500 cars. Concrete blocks and sandbags have been deployed to reinforce bus stops, and residents flinch at any loud noises, afraid to venture outside. Schools in Belgorod and bordering areas have switched to online classes until mid-February to ensure the safety of students.
This is not the first time Belgorod has been affected by the war. Early in the conflict, the city experienced drone strikes and other attacks. In April 2023, a bomb accidentally released by a Russian warplane exploded in a street, causing significant damage and injuring two people. The recent attack on Belgorod has further escalated tensions and placed the city at the forefront of the conflict once again.
President Putin condemned the attack on Belgorod, expressing anger and labeling it an act of desperation by Ukraine. He accused Ukraine of using barbaric methods and striking peaceful settlements with indiscriminate weapons, emphasizing that Russia only targets military objectives. However, despite the Kremlin's claims, there is ample evidence to suggest that civilian casualties have been incurred in places like Kyiv, Mariupol, and Kharkiv.
Ukrainian officials rarely comment on strikes inside Russia, but they assert their right to use all means necessary to counter Russia's aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has highlighted the extensive use of missiles and drones by Russia since the war began, with a particular emphasis on attacks on civilian targets. Zelenskyy vowed that those who bring destruction to Ukraine will eventually face similar consequences.
Russian hawks view the attack on Belgorod as a turning point, advocating for an escalation of the conflict and broad mobilization. They argue for capturing more Ukrainian territory to secure border regions and restructuring the state and society accordingly. The challenges of detecting Ukrainian rocket launchers near the border emphasize the need for improved surveillance.
As winter freezes the front lines of the conflict, Ukraine's long-range strike capability through missile and drone attacks inside Russia is stretching Moscow's security assets. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War suggests that continued Ukrainian strikes in deep rear areas of Russia may increase pressure on Russian air defenses.
If this is indeed Ukraine's strategy, it mirrors Russia's tactics from a year ago when they targeted Ukraine's power grid, hoping for a protracted repair process. However, Ukraine managed to quickly make necessary fixes and obtain spare parts, thwarting Russia's plans. Now, Russia is faced with finding a coping strategy to deal with the ongoing attacks on its infrastructure.
Energy analysts warn that the damage caused by Ukrainian attacks, though not extensive, can have significant consequences for Russian refineries. Components such as pipelines, compressors, valves, and control units, which are difficult to replace due to sanctions, can be damaged by the attacks. This raises concerns over the long-term impact on Russia's oil refineries if such attacks continue.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of abating, with both sides escalating their tactics. While President Putin seeks to maintain a sense of normalcy, the increasingly frequent Ukrainian attacks are exposing the reality of the war to the Russian population. The attacks on Belgorod and other regions within Russia not only cause devastation but also challenge the Kremlin's tight grip on the political scene. As the conflict intensifies, the toll on civilians and infrastructure continues to mount, leaving lasting scars on both countries involved.
