As President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's first five-year term expired nearly a year ago, the U.S. and Russia are in agreement that Ukrainians must decide on the head of state through elections. Russia has made it clear that it will not sign a peace agreement until Ukraine commits to holding elections. The U.S. has proposed a three-stage plan involving a ceasefire, followed by Ukrainian elections, and then finalizing a peace deal.
Zelenskyy's term was set to end last May, with elections initially planned for April 2024. However, due to martial law restrictions, elections cannot be held until six months after its conclusion as per the Ukrainian constitution. Zelenskyy's popularity has declined significantly since the war began, raising concerns about his future if peace is achieved and elections are triggered.
Various U.S. officials have expressed the need for Ukraine to hold elections, with some suggesting a timeline possibly by the end of the year post a peace agreement. However, Zelenskyy has pushed back against such statements, emphasizing the importance of understanding Ukraine's circumstances before making decisions.
Experts have highlighted the complexities surrounding post-war elections, with concerns that holding elections prematurely could benefit Russia by sowing chaos. Former President Petro Poroshenko and other political figures have differing views on the timing of elections, with uncertainties looming over Zelenskyy's potential re-election campaign.
Public opinion polls indicate fluctuations in Zelenskyy's approval ratings, with factors like the terms of the ceasefire and public perception playing crucial roles in his electoral prospects. The possibility of elections before 2026 seems unlikely, given the need for adequate preparations and the ongoing conflict.
Analysts predict a challenging electoral landscape for Zelenskyy, with potential contenders like General Valerii Zaluzhnyi emerging as key opponents. Despite concerns about Russian interference, pro-Western candidates are expected to dominate the election scene, with Zelenskyy facing both internal and external challenges in his bid for re-election.
The political environment in Ukraine remains complex, with debates over election timing, candidates' credentials, and the influence of external actors shaping the country's future political landscape.
