Over the course of more than 1,000 days of war, Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued repeated warnings to Ukraine's Western allies regarding potential dire consequences, including nuclear threats, if they provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons to defend itself.
Recent developments have seen escalating tensions, with the Biden administration granting Kyiv permission to use longer-range American weapons against Russian targets. In response, Putin updated Russia's nuclear doctrine and launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile towards Ukraine, signaling a clear threat to Ukraine's supporters.
Despite the heightened threats, analysts suggest that this pattern of threats and responses has become familiar. Each time Ukraine requests military aid, there is a deliberation among Western allies about potential escalation and Russian reactions. However, when aid is eventually granted, the catastrophic outcomes predicted by Putin do not materialize.
Experts point to the Kremlin's successful strategy of framing the conflict on its terms, forcing the West to react based on Russian premises. This strategy aims to create confusion and self-deterrence among Western powers, ultimately benefiting Russia's agenda.
The recent policy changes allowing Ukraine to use long-range strike systems against Russia have been viewed as a leveling of capabilities, rather than an escalation as framed by the Kremlin. Ukraine's actions, including the use of drones and Western weapons, remain within the laws of armed conflict.
While threats from Russia have intensified following recent developments, analysts believe that the likelihood of significant intervention or a shift in global attitudes towards the conflict remains low. The ongoing dynamics between Russia, Ukraine, and Western allies continue to shape the narrative of the conflict.
