Russia has claimed to have captured another key Ukrainian town as it looks to consolidate gains ahead of potential peace talks pushed by Donald Trump.
After months of heavy fighting, Russian forces claimed control of the town of Velyka Novosilka in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk on Monday. The town is small, with a prewar population of only 5,000, but it has served as a key assembly area for offensive and defensive Ukrainian operations in the wider area, says Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian war tracker. It is also a key route linking towns further east to the rest of unoccupied Ukraine.
It is the second significant town in Donetsk to fall to the Russians this month after Moscow claimed control of Kurakhove roughly 20 miles to the northeast.
The city of Toretsk, further north, has also been almost completely occupied. Its fall appears inevitable, according to Ukrainian security think tank the Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS).
Near the northernmost tip of Russia’s attack in Ukraine, Moscow’s troops have also made advances through the town of Dvorichina in the Kharkiv region. It is just north of the city of Kupyansk.
“The situation on the frontline remains complicated,” the Ukrainian general staff wrote in its latest update. “The opponent, using their advantage in live force, is attacking our positions.”
Russian forces have been steadily advancing in eastern Ukraine for months in an attack that has centred on the city of Pokrovsk, a linchpin of the wider Donetsk region’s defence. Ukraine’s general staff said there had been 85 Russian attacks on Monday in that direction.
Taking advantage of a Ukrainian shortage in manpower, Russian forces have advanced around 30 miles from the city of Avdiivka, which they took last February, towards the outskirts of Pokrovsk. A wider attack has engulfed Kurakhove to the south, Velyka Novosilka further south and Toretsk and Chasiv Yar to the north.
It has proved costly in terms of personnel: Western estimates suggest the Russian military is suffering more than 1,000 casualties a day. The total number of wounded and killed could top 1 million before the end of 2025.
The advances are nonetheless concerning for Ukraine. Whatever Russia seizes before any negotiations take place might end up more permanently in Moscow’s control if the frontline is frozen.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky replaced the commander of the eastern front over the weekend in a bid to strengthen defences in the Donetsk region.
The capture of Velyka Novosilka is emblematic of the wider problem facing Ukraine, namely a shortage of personnel and weapons. But Ukraine’s 110th brigade, which has been fighting in the town, described the Russian takeover as mainly a “flag-raising” exercise.
The Mokri Yaly river circling the northern outskirts of the town “created problems” for the 110th as it tried to resupply its troops; now that they have withdrawn behind the waterway, it has “become an obstacle to the enemy’s advance”.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, says the capture of Velyka Novosilka may prove more political than strategic.
“Russia is likely trying to leverage the claimed seizure of Velyka Novosilka to influence Western perceptions of the situation on the battlefield in Donetsk Oblast, to advance narratives that Russian battlefield gains are inevitable and that Ukrainian positions are rapidly deteriorating,” they wrote in their latest update.
The same might not be true for Toretsk. CDS writes that the capture of Toretsk “will be used to advance further west” along a highway that runs towards the city of Kramatorsk, one of the Donetsk region’s largest.
The Ukraine catch up
The latest from our Ukraine live blog as of 1pm GMT on 28/01/2025
- Trump’s freeze on US aid to Ukraine has severely impacted humanitarian projects, including those supporting veterans, removing landmines, and providing healthcare.
- North Korean troops, fighting alongside Russian forces, have partially withdrawn from the frontlines in the Kursk region after suffering heavy losses, according to a Ukrainian commander. They may be regrouping or awaiting reinforcements.
- Zelensky defended Ukraine’s mobilization, stating that disbanding troops would leave them vulnerable to Russian aggression.
- Russia launched an overnight drone attack on Ukraine, injuring eight people and damaging residential buildings and businesses in several cities. Ukraine’s air force claims to have shot down 65 drones.
- A Ukrainian commander reports North Korean troops have withdrawn from the Kursk region frontline after heavy losses, possibly to regroup or await reinforcements.
- Follow latest updates.
Meanwhile, the think tank writes, Russia will likely intensify efforts to take Chasiv Yar and, ultimately, concentrate an attack on Pokrosvk. According to the Ukrainian military, it remains Russia’s main objective, despite previous months of Moscow’s troops focusing on areas surrounding the city. It is, however, heavily fortified.
Viktor Trehubov, a Ukrainian Eastern Forces spokesperson, said around 7,000 people are believed to remain inside Pokrovsk, which had around 60,000 residents before the invasion. Its loss would be much more concerning for Ukraine.
Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst tracking the war in Ukraine for The Black Bird Group, based in Finland, says that a serious encirclement will take a long time and battles inside the city are unlikely to occur soon, since Ukraine’s extensive fortifications continue to slow the advancing Russian troops.
But Russian attacks along the western flanks of Pokrovsk could develop into a problem for Kyiv’s forces. It is there that Russia has had the most success, moving to within a few miles of the city. It is there, also, that Ukraine’s fortifications are weakest.
