US President Joe Biden says it is "unlikely" a missile that killed two people in a Polish village near the border with Ukraine was fired from Russia.
This blog has now closed, look back at how the day unfolded:
Key events
Live updates
By Dannielle Maguire
Let's recap on what we know
It's time to close the blog.
But before I go, let me catch you up on the key points from today's events:
- A missile struck Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. The blast killed two people
- It's believed the missile was Russian-made but it remains unclear who was behind the blast. Investigations are still underway
- The outcome of the investigation is important because, according to NATO rules, an attack against Poland is considered an attack on the entire alliance
- The Associated Press quoted three anonymous US officials who said early evidence suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to take out an incoming Russian missile
- Leaders from NATO and G7 countries had an emergency meeting about the missile strike while they were in Bali for the G20 summit
- Poland is expected to request consultations with NATO countries under Article 4 of the treaty, but experts say the response from NATO will depend on the outcome of the investigation
By Dannielle Maguire
Polish security council to meet again in four hours
Poland's national security council said on Wednesday it will meet again at 1100 GMT — that's about four hours from now.
"The BBN is currently analysing the arrangements made so far with commanders, service chiefs and allies," BBN head Jacek Siewiera said in a post on Twitter.
By Dannielle Maguire
Is Australia part of NATO?
No.
Remember, NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
But while Australia is geographically distanced from that part of the world, it's got close ties with NATO as an organisation.
Australia is one of six countries granted NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner status.
And we've got a history of supporting NATO — think Australia's involvement in action in Afghanistan and Iraq.
These are the 30 countries that make up NATO:
- Albania
- Belgium
- Bulgaria
- Canada
- Croatia
- Czechia
- Denmark
- Estonia
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hungary
- Iceland
- Italy
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Montenegro
- Netherlands
- North Macedonia
- Norway
- Poland
- Portugal
- Romania
- Slovakia
- Slovenia
- Spain
- Türkiye
- United Kingdom
- United States
By Dannielle Maguire
Turkish President believes Russia had nothing to do with Polish blast
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he respected Russia's statement that its missiles hadn't hit Polish territory.
"Russia saying this has nothing to do with them and [US President Joe] Biden saying these missiles are not Russian-made show that this has nothing to do with Russia," he said.
Erdogan said he would will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin when he returned to Türkiye.
By Dannielle Maguire
EU offers support to Poland
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, says discussed the Poland missile strike with NATO and G7 leaders in Bali.
"We offer our full support to Poland and assistance with the ongoing investigation," she said.
"We will remain in close contact with out partners on the next steps."
By Bridget Judd
What's Article 5? And has it been triggered before?
Article 5 is the cornerstone of the founding treaty of NATO, which was created in 1949.
The charter stipulates that "the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all."
Since Ukraine is not part of NATO, Russia's invasion in February did not trigger Article 5, though the United States and other member states rushed to provide military and diplomatic assistance to Kyiv.
Article 5 has been activated once before – on behalf of the United States, in response to the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington.
By Dannielle Maguire
Can missiles just go rogue?
Annika Burgess from the ABC's Asia Pacific Newsroom unpacked that question.
Here's a few snippets from her article:
Marcus Hellyer, a senior analyst at the Australia Strategic Policy Institute, said if a missile was to go off course, it was either unstable, struck by another missile, or just malfunctioning.
Matthew Sussex, senior fellow at the Centre for Defence Studies, said guidance systems for Russian missiles had been notoriously bad since the war started.
"They call them precision guidance systems but only about 70 per cent would be accurate," Professor Sussex said.
Read the full story:
By Bridget Judd
NATO unlikely to trigger Article Five, security expert says
Max Bergmann, the Europe director of security think-tank CSIS, says it's highly unlikely NATO will trigger Article Five, which would bring the entire alliance to Poland's defence.
"I doubt this will trigger Article Five and that NATO will uniformly agree to sort of go ahead to launch an attack against Russia," he says.
"I don't think that will happen. I don't think this is going to precipitate World War Three."
By Bridget Judd
What's happening at the G20 summit?
As we heard earlier, leaders from key nations attending the G20 summit in Bali have condemned the latest barrage of missile attacks Russia has carried out on Ukraine.
Indonesia Correspondent Anne Barker has more.
Anne: Members of NATO and G7 nations who are in Bali have held an emergency meeting to discuss the blast that killed two people in Poland. US President Joe Biden says early signs suggest that missile wasn't from Russia. But they've offered support to investigate who fired it and from where.
And leaders at the meeting produced a statement condemning a much larger attack on Ukraine overnight. Ukraine says 90 missiles were fired. The leaders issued a statement sending condolences to all victims, and vowing to hold Russia accountable for the brazen attacks.
By Bridget Judd
Missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile, US officials say
The Associated Press reports that three US officials say preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter publicly.
That assessment and US President Joe Biden’s comments at the G20 summit contradict information earlier from a senior US intelligence official who told the AP that Russian missiles crossed into Poland.
By Bridget Judd
Chancellor of Germany express condolences to the people of Poland
Olaf Scholz says he's spoken with Poland's President Andrzej Duda and expressed his condolences to him and the citizens of Poland.
He says it is a terrible incident, adding that it necessary to clarify how it came about.
By Bridget Judd
Russia has been a major focus of the G20 summit
As we heard a little earlier, the G20 summit in Bali was disrupted by an emergency meeting to discuss reports of a missile landing in Polish territory near Ukraine.
But outside of that, Russia has proven to be a major focus.
- Most G20 members condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to draft joint declaration.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on G20 leaders, including US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, to adopt a 10-point peace formula.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who headed the Russian delegation to the summit in the absence of President Vladimir Putin, condemned "politicisation" of the meeting.
- French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed it was urgent to de-escalate the conflict in Ukraine and reaffirmed their position on preventing the use of nuclear arms there.
By Bridget Judd
What sort of response could we expect from NATO?
Max Bergmann, the Europe director of security think-tank CSIS, says NATO will likely send more weapons to Ukraine while investigations continue.
"I do think this will lead to more support for Ukraine and increased willingness to perhaps provide Ukraine with certain weaponry that the West has not yet provided and to further increase support for Ukraine in this conflict."
By Bridget Judd
US secretary of state speaks to Ukraine counterpart on Poland blasts
Antony Blinken has spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, about assessments of the blasts in Poland, the state department says.
He pledged to remain closely coordinated and affirmed the United States would "continue to work closely with allies and partners to provide Ukraine what it needs to defend itself".
By Shiloh Payne
Missiles also struck Ukraine on Tuesday
Waves of Russian airstrikes rocked Ukraine on Tuesday, with authorities immediately announcing emergency blackouts after attacks energy and other facilities knocked out power.
By Bridget Judd
After the news broke, there was a 'flurry' of phone calls from world leaders
The ABC's Matthew Doran is at the G20 summit in Bali, and has been covering some of the reaction from world leaders to today's news.
Matthew: We know that shortly after this news broke, there was a flurry of phone calls from world leaders trying to get in touch with the Polish government to express their condolences, first of all, for the people that died as a result of this incident and also expressing their support for investigations that will now have to be underway to figure out exactly what happened there.
By Bridget Judd
Japan 'deeply concerned' over Poland blast, Kishida tells G7, NATO meet
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told today's emergency meeting of leaders, held in Bali on the sidelines of a G20 summit, that Japan is "very concerned" and watching developments closely.
"Developments in Ukraine affect the core of international order and are inseparable from security affairs in the Indo-Pacific region," Mr Kishida said.
"At a time like now, we would like to strengthen co-ordination and co-operation with G7 and NATO allies," he was quoted as saying at the meeting.
By Bridget Judd
Just joining the blog? Here's what you need to know
As you can imagine, quite a bit has happened today in response to reports that a Russian missile hit a village in eastern Poland.
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Two people died in the explosion near the border with Ukraine.
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The Associated Press cited two sources, including a senior US intelligence official, as saying the blast in Przewodow was due to a Russian missile crossing into Poland.
- But US President Joe Biden says early information suggests it may not have been caused by a missile fired from Russia.
- It comes after global leaders gathered for an emergency meeting at the G20 meeting in Bali.
By Bridget Judd
Anthony Albanese sends condolences to Poland after two people killed in explosion
Anthony Albanese is speaking from the G20 summit in Bali.
He says Russia's overnight attacks on Ukraine are "deeply concerning".
"Russia's reckless and dangerous use of force promote danger for the entire region and we have seen that and I send my condolences to Poland on the loss of life.
"As [the] Secretary General and President Biden have said, we need to have a full investigation as to how this has occurred... and we should consider what as an international community is an appropriate response."
By Bridget Judd
EU condemns 'barbaric' missile attacks on Ukraine
The leaders of Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States released a joint statement after meeting on the margins of the G20 summit.
The statement said members discussed the explosion in Poland and offers their full support for the investigation.
"We agree to remain in close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds," the statement said.
It also reaffirmed its support of Ukraine in the face of "ongoing Russian aggression".
"We condemn the barbaric missile attacks that Russia perpetrated on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure on Tuesday.
