Ukraine is preparing to mount a counteroffensive in the face of intensifying Russian bombardment as it fights Moscow’s invasion – but the West is in danger of running out of the ammunition and heavy weaponry components Kyiv will need.
At a meeting of Western defence chiefs in Brussels, as the anniversary of the invasion approaches, the head of Nato – Jens Stoltenberg – said: “We see no signs that President [Vladimir] Putin is preparing for peace ... What we see is the opposite, he is preparing for more war, for new offensives and new attacks.” He added that it is “clear that we are in a race of logistics” and that this would require a “huge effort by allies to actually be able to get in the ammunition, the fuel, the spare parts” that he said are needed in what has become “a grinding war of attrition”.
Although the supply of advanced warplanes to Ukraine has become a widely publicised topic of debate, it is “not the most urgent issue now, but it is an ongoing discussion”, Mr Stoltenberg said. “The urgent need now is to deliver what has already been promised. The armoured infantry fighting vehicles, and other battle tanks that have been pledged: we see that allies are stepping up. We need the training, we need the equipment, we need the ammunition,” he added.
The alliance plans to increase targets for stockpiling ammunition, as Kyiv is burning through shells much faster than the West can produce them, leaving stocks badly depleted. Kyiv is said to be using thousands of shells each day defending its lines. “Ukraine has urgent requirements to help it meet this crucial moment in the course of the war,” the US secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin, said at the meeting in Brussels. The German defence minister Boris Pistorius called for production capacity to be ramped up, saying that Berlin had signed contracts with arms maker Rheinmetall to restart production of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft guns it has delivered to Kyiv.
Russian forces have been bombarding frontline Ukrainian troops as well as towns in the eastern region of Donetsk, concentrating much of their artillery fire on the city of Bakhmut. Donetsk and Luhansk together make up the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, which Moscow is seeking to control. “There is not a single square metre in Bakhmut that is safe or that is not in range of enemy fire or drones,” regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko told Ukraine’s national broadcaster. Ukraine’s military said that its forces had repelled attacks in five areas in Luhansk and six in Donetsk, including around Bakhmut, over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces are also said to have blown up a bridge near Bakhmut.
Capturing Bakhmut would provide a stepping stone for Russia to advance on two bigger cities in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Slovyansk – and give Moscow new momentum. White House spokesperson John Kirby said in Washington that Russian forces had made incremental progress in their assault on Bahkmut but it remained unclear whether the city would fall.
Mr Austin said he expects Ukrainian forces to conduct a counteroffensive of their own in the spring, and that Kyiv’s allies are working to ensure they have the armour and firepower to make it effective. “We believe that there’ll be a window of opportunity for them to exercise initiative,” Mr Austin said. “The Kremlin is still betting it can wait us out, but one year on we are as united as ever. That shared resolve will help sustain Ukraine’s momentum in the crucial weeks ahead.”
The head of the Wagner group of mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said Russian forces would not be able to capture Bakhmut in the near future. In a post on Telegram, the Putin ally said Ukraine was reinforcing with up to 500 new fighters a day. The Wagner Group has spearheaded the Russian assault on Bakhmut. “Bakhmut will not be taken tomorrow, because there is heavy resistance. The meat grinder is working,” he said. “The heaviest battles are taking place to the north [of Bakhmut]. There are no grounds for encircling the enemy in the northern areas.”
The UK’s Ministry of Defence said early on Tuesday that Wagner mercenaries had made small gains in the northern outskirts of Bakhmut in the past three days, but an advance to the south seemed to have made little progress. “Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect,” it said.
Speaking in Brussels, the top US general, Mark Milley, said Russia had already lost in the eyes of the world.
“Russia is now a global pariah, and the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience. In short, Russia has lost: they’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically,” said General Milley, who is chair of the US joint chiefs of staff.
Mr Stoltenberg said that Nato allies are giving unprecedent support to Kyiv, and reiterated that the Western alliance will support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.
