Despite the war, Ukraine’s farms are expected to produce around 30 million tons of wheat, corn and other food commodities this year. Traders and farmers, with the support of the Ukrainian government and neighboring nations, are seeking alternative routes to export those grains to stave off global food shortages and relieve soaring prices.
The endeavor, however, is far from straightforward. The new routes are longer, often backlogged and more expensive. The challenge is complicated by stretched infrastructure and continued Russian attacks on bridges and railways.
New routes
The Black Sea port of Constanta in neighboring Romania is one such option, but to get there grains must travel long distances by road or rail or be loaded onto barges on Ukrainian river ports and shipped down the Danube.
Constanta’s port is large, with a turnover of 27 million metric tons of grain each year, and sits close to the Ukrainian border. But starting this month, Ukrainian grain will have to compete for capacity with Romania’s own sizable grain harvests. Key infrastructure along the route, such as a rail bridge at Zatoka near the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, has been repeatedly targeted by Russian missile strikes.
Russia in recent days has said it would consider easing its naval blockade, allowing some grain shipments to resume, in return for sanctions being lifted. Ukrainian officials have expressed skepticism about the offer, while Western governments have said they wouldn’t lift sanctions. That likely leaves Ukraine continuing its search for new routes.
Railways
Poland and Lithuania have offered their ports for Ukrainian grain shipments, but the railway links between Ukraine and those nations’ Baltic ports are struggling to cope with the additional capacity. Ukraine, Russia, Lithuania and other former members of the Soviet Union use the Russian standard of railway gauge. Poland, Romania and most of the rest of Europe use a narrower gauge. To move grain across those borders, either the undercarriages of the railcars must be changed or the cargo shifted to new trains.
At the border between Ukraine and its neighbors, the specially designed machinery that transfers grain cargoes between the two railway gauges has become overloaded by a surge of new shipments, leading to long waiting times and a backlog of railcars.
This is a particular problem at Lithuania’s port of Klaipeda. The former Soviet state uses the same wider railway gauge as Ukraine. But lying between them is Russia-aligned Belarus, and railway services with Ukraine have been suspended due to the war. So shipments must be directed through Poland, necessitating that undercarriages be changed twice, first at Ukraine’s border with Poland and again when they enter Lithuania.
Food security
Ukraine’s struggle to export its produce isn’t just an issue for the country and its farmers. Before the war, the nation’s farms were crucial for feeding the world, and Ukraine ranked in the top 10 exporters of wheat, corn and barley, as well as the largest exporter of sunflower oil.
Much of this grain used to flow to the developing world. The Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports is helping to push food prices higher, adding to food shortages and prompting protests in poorer nations. Many developing nations came to rely on Ukraine’s cheap and plentiful supplies of grains and are now struggling to source new supplies from elsewhere. Soaring grain prices are also adding to inflation that is coursing through the global economy.
Harvests
Ukraine is struggling to export grain leftover from previous harvests. In the coming months, farmers will begin harvesting their latest crop, adding greatly to the quantities of agricultural commodities that need to find new routes out of the country.
