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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Samantha Lock (now); Maanvi Singh , Gloria Oladipo, Léonie Chao-Fong, Sam Jones and Tom Bryant (earlier)

Scepticism persists over Russia’s claims it has withdrawn troops – as it happened

Thanks for following our live coverage of the Ukraine crisis as uncertainty continues to persist in the eastern European region.

We will be closing this blog but you can follow all the latest developments on our new feed here.

Updated

Estonia says battle groups are moving ahead in a likely attack to occupy “key terrain,” contradicting Moscow’s insistence of a pullback, Reuters is reporting.

Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian foreign intelligence service, said he is aware of around 10 battle groups of troops moving toward the Ukrainian border, where it estimates about 170,000 soldiers are already deployed.

The attack would include missile bombardment and the occupation of “key terrain,” he added.

If Russia is successful in Ukraine, it would encourage it to increase pressure on the Baltics in the coming years.

The threat of war has become the main policy tool for Putin.

Britain has also said it will double the size of its force in Estonia and send tanks and armoured fighting vehicles to the small Baltic republic bordering Russia as part of the Nato deployment.

Britain’s defence intelligence chief has also made a series of rare public comments, adding to the west’s scepticism that Russia has withdrawn troops.

Lieutenant general Sir Jim Hockenhull said more Russian armoured vehicles, helicopters and a field hospital have been spotted.

We have not seen evidence that Russia has withdrawn forces from Ukraine’s borders. Contrary to their claims, Russia continues to build up military capabilities near Ukraine.

This includes sightings of additional armoured vehicles, helicopters and a field hospital moving towards Ukraine’s borders. Russia has the military mass in place to conduct an invasion of Ukraine.”

Venezuela’s president has pledged a “powerful military cooperation” with Russia following discussions between officials, the Associated Press reports.

Nicolas Maduro told reporters during a news conference on Wednesday:

We have reviewed the powerful military cooperation, and we have ratified the path of a powerful military cooperation between Russia and Venezuela for the defence of peace, of sovereignty, the defence of territorial integrity.

We are going to increase all the preparation, training and cooperation plans with a military power in the world such as Russia.”

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro greeting Russian president Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscowin 2019.
Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro greeting Russian president Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow in 2019. Photograph: Reuters

Last month, Russia’s chief negotiator in talks with the US on tensions over Ukraine said he would “neither confirm nor exclude” the possibility of Russia sending military assets to Cuba and Venezuela if the US and its allies don’t curtail their military activities on Russia’s doorstep. The US dismissed the comments from deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov as bluster.

Russia is a major political ally of Venezuela, which has become increasingly isolated under economic sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union.

“We have walked the 21st century together, the people, the government of Russia and Venezuela and ... we have built the map of cooperation to continue walking together, united,” Maduro said.

US accuses Russia of deploying thousands more troops to Ukraine border

The United States has dismissed reports that Russia is in fact withdrawing troops from Ukraine’s border, instead accusing Moscow of sending more soldiers as fears of an invasion grow.

Multiple reports are now coming in that appear to contradict Putin’s earlier claims of a “partial” drawdown of Russian forces, including from Crimea, after the completion of military drills in the region.

A senior US administration official spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, saying the west detected that Russia had increased its force near Ukraine by 7,000 troops, with some arriving as recently as Wednesday, and that there had been a marked increase in false claims by Russians that the Kremlin might use as pretext for an invasion.

We continue to receive indications they could launch a false pretext at any moment to justify an invasion.”

The official said those claims included reports of unmarked graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian forces, statements that the US and Ukraine are developing biological or chemical weapons, and claims that the west is funnelling in guerrillas to kill Ukrainians, the Associated Press reports.

The official said they were not authorised to speak publicly about sensitive operations and could not provide underlying evidence for the assertions.

A satellite image released by Maxar Technologies shows a close-up of recent road construction and a new Ponton bridge over the Pripyat river, Belarus, on 15 February.
A satellite image released by Maxar Technologies shows a close-up of recent road construction and a new Ponton bridge over the Pripyat river, Belarus, on 15 February. Photograph: Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

As mentioned in the last post, US vice president Kamala Harris will also be at the Munich security conference later this week.

Her schedule includes meetings with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and Olaf Scholz among others, senior administration officials told Reuters.

She is expected to arrive at the conference on Friday and will also meet Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, and the bipartisan US congressional delegations.

British foreign secretary Liz Truss will visit Ukraine and several European countries later this week, her office said on Thursday, as she continues diplomatic efforts to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The UK’s top diplomat will meet her Ukrainian and Polish counterparts during visits to both nations, although details of when the trip would happen have not yet been released.

Truss will hold talks with Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba and will then deliver a speech in Kyiv where she will warn Russia it faces economic pain and global isolation if it invades Ukraine.

Extracts of her speech have been released by her office:

I urge Russia to take the path of diplomacy.

We are ready to talk ... But we are very clear – if they decide to continue down the path of aggression, there will be massive consequences bringing Russia severe economic costs and pariah status.”

Truss will also attend the Munich security conference on Saturday where foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) most developed nations are set to hold talks on the crisis.

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who this week met Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, is expected to address the G7 conference, which US vice president Kamala Harris and secretary of state Antony Blinken are also due to attend.

The talks will be themed around nations respecting the sovereignty of others.

Hello it’s Samantha Lock with you as my colleagues in the US sign off.

Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison has just finished talks with UK counterpart Boris Johnson, with the British leader pledging a £25m (A$47m) security package as part of a defence agreement between the two nations.

The two leaders met virtually on Thursday morning, issuing a joint statement where they emphasised Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, amid Russian troops amassing on the border.

The statement said:

They agreed the need for de-escalation and underscored that any further Russian incursion in Ukraine would be a massive strategic mistake and have stark humanitarian cost.

The leaders reiterated their commitment to support a rules-based international order free from coercion, where the sovereign rights of all nations are respected.”

As part of the discussions, Johnson pledged £25m from the UK in order to strengthen resilience in the Indo-Pacific region in areas such as maritime security, state threats and cyberspace.

Updated

Catch up

Here’s a recap of recent developments, from Guardian reporters based around the globe:

  • Vladimir Putin said a “partial” drawdown of Russian forces was under way near the Ukrainian border, including from Crimea, after the completion of military drills there. The Russian defence ministry shared a video purportedly showing columns of military equipment and forces leaving the area that borders Ukraine. But multiple reports say that Russian troops at Ukrainian borders have actually increased by about 7,000, according to US officials.
  • Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said Russia is continuing to send troops to what is now the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the cold war. He said Nato was “prepared for the worst” while holding out hope that Putin had a sincere desire to find a diplomatic way through the crisis.
  • Stoltenberg also announced that the Nato alliance was considering deploying further battle groups in eastern and central Europe. They would complement those established in 2014 in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States.
  • The British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said the UK was doubling the number of personnel in Estonia and sending additional equipment, including tanks and armoured fighting vehicles. Four additional UK Typhoon jets landed in Cyprus on Wednesday in order to patrol the skies of eastern Europe.
  • Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, toured the country to mark a newly declared National Unity Day. This, as cyber-attacks on the Ukrainian defence ministry stretched into a second day. Ukrainians were asked to fly the national flag and sing the national anthem.
  • The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, warned Russia that EU sanctions “can bite very hard” as she urged the Kremlin not to choose war. In a speech to the European parliament in Strasbourg, she said EU institutions and member states were working on a “robust and comprehensive package of potential sanctions” in cooperation with the US, UK and Canada.
  • Russian pundits lined up for their chance to dunk on the western media as 16 February – the day when some briefings had forecast Russia would invade Ukraine – came and passed without incident. The Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova wrote a “request to the mass disinformation outlets of the USA and Britain … announce the schedule of our ‘invasions’ for the coming year. I’d like to plan my vacation”.
  • British authorities are worried that the current threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine may attract far-right extremists from the UK, who could travel to the country seeking weapons training and military experience. Counter-terrorism police were positioned at the departure gates of at least one main British airport this week, where they quizzed travellers flying to Ukraine about their identity and reasons for travel.
  • The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, will be attending the Munich security conference in Germany on Friday to discuss Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, confirmed the State Department. A statement from the state department spokesperson, Ned Price, said Blinken will attend the four-day conference, discussing efforts to get Russia to de-escalate and ways to strengthen European security.
  • The US state department has claimed Russia was attempting to create a “pretext” for invading Ukraine with unsupported claims of “genocide” and mass graves in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Russian media published articles and photographs this week of purported secret mass graves in the region and on Tuesday, Putin claimed that Kyiv was committing “genocide” there. State department spokesman Ned Price claimed that Moscow was making the claims as an excuse for invading Ukraine

Follow along for more updates from Samantha Lock.

Russian forces at Ukrainian borders have increased by about 7,000, per a US official who spoke with CNN.

The news, which the Guardian has not independently confirmed, comes amid Russian claims that Moscow is pulling back troops.

From CNN:

A senior US administration official said the increase renders Russia’s assertion of withdrawal “false,” and warned President Vladimir Putin’s public openness to diplomacy was a guise. “Every indication we have now is they mean only to publicly offer to talk, and make claims about de-escalation, while privately mobilizing for war,” the official said.

The new estimates would place the number of Russia forces north of the 150,000 figure President Joe Biden cited in a televised address earlier this week. Western leaders had already greeted Russia’s claims of withdrawal with skepticism. On Tuesday, Biden said during a speech in the East Room that a withdrawal of Russian troops would be “good”, but that he had yet to see any evidence that such a pullback was under way.

“Our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position,” Biden said. “And the fact remains right now Russia has more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine and Belarus and along Ukraine’s border.”

Updated

France’s foreign minister said that Russia and Europe need to negotiate a way to coexist, and it’s up to Putin to set the tone of their relationship.

In an interview with the Financial Times, foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that Putin “can choose to make Russia a destabilizing power ... which could mean a permanent strategy of tension over the long term, or he can choose to become the actor, the partner, in a new security and stability order in Europe”.

“It’s his choice. It is indeed him who has to decide,” he said.

Updated

The US state department has claimed Russia was attempting to create a “pretext” for invading Ukraine with unsupported claims of “genocide” and mass graves in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

Russian media published articles and photographs this week of purported secret mass graves in the region and on Tuesday, Putin claimed that Kyiv was committing “genocide” there.

State department spokesman Ned Price claimed that Moscow was making the claims as an excuse for invading Ukraine. “There is no basis of truth to any of these allegations,” Price said.

Fiona Hill, a former senior director for European and Russian affairs in the national security council, and co-author of a Putin biography, contrasted the current approach to the western response to past Russian operations, such as the attacks in Britain on the defectors Alexander Litvinenko and Sergei Skripal.

“We never really kind of revealed what we knew about what they were up to, and then they were able, as a result, to take advantage of all the grey zones and the uncertainty and spin their own narratives,” Hill said.

Going public also serves a domestic political purpose, especially for a US administration that has been widely criticized for failing to predict the collapse of the Afghan government and Taliban takeover last year. If there is a Russian attack, no one will be able to say the Biden White House was taken unawares.

Read more:

Updated

In other news, satellite images taken over the last two days show that a bridge is being constructed over a river in Belarus that is located less than 4 miles from Ukraine’s border, reports CNN.

The construction is being monitored by military officials in case the infrastructure could support a Russia invasion.

With 16 February being discussed as an important date when it comes to a potential Ukraine invasion, here’s analysis from Politico’s Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey about why 20 February is a critical date for many experts monitoring Russia’s military actions:

The Feb. 16 focus was understandable: Media reports, including here in NatSec Daily, noted how President Joe Biden told Western leaders about intelligence assessing that Russia might launch its invasion then. Importantly, though, top Biden aides never said publicly that Feb. 16 was the certain invasion day — only that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troop buildup meant an attack could come “at any time” and possibly before the Olympics wrap up.

European officials, meanwhile, downplayed the notion of an assault on Feb. 16. “We didn’t see a definitive plan with that timing,” a senior European official told us recently. Some speculated that tonight’s full moon might be a hint, allowing invading ground forces better visibility at night.

But analysts told us that the obsession with Feb. 16 — that is, today — distracted attention from actual key dates.

“After Feb. 20 was always the more important time frame,” said Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia’s military at the CNA think tank. “We’re looking to see what Russian forces do then.”

That’s when the largest military exercise since the Cold War is scheduled to end, after which leaders in Moscow and Minsk promised Putin’s troops would head home.

“Not a single Russian serviceman, not a single piece of equipment will remain in Belarus after the completion of exercises with Russia,” Belarussian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei told reporters today, even as Western officials openly fear they’ll remain permanently. And after their meeting last week, officials in Paris said Putin promised French President Emmanuel Macron that Russia would definitely withdraw its forces from Belarus — though the Kremlin denied any guarantees were made.

Read the full article here.

Updated

In other news, 10 US Senate Republicans have sent a letter to Blinken requesting more info on current plans to evacuate US citizens from Ukraine, calling current safety plans for Americans “wholly inadequate”.

The letter comes after confirmation from the state department that they will not be able to evacuate American citizens in Ukraine if there is a Russian invasion.

Updated

The UK defense intelligence chief Jim Hockenhull said today that he has “not seen evidence” of a drawdown in Russian troops and has actually seen a buildup near the Ukraine border.

“Russia has the military mass in place to conduct an invasion of Ukraine,” said Hockenhull.

On the topic of countering a Russian possible invasion, here is the Guardian’s Julian Borger and Dan Sabbagh on how the US and UK are going public with a surprising amount of intelligence to counter any surprise element from Putin:

The US and the UK have sought to fend off a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine in part by going public with an unusual amount of intelligence, hoping to rob Vladimir Putin of the element of surprise.

There have been regular briefings in Washington and London – sometimes from national security officials who do not often talk to the press – going into detail about potential Russian military tactics, regime change plots, and “false flag” operations Moscow is allegedly planning to provide a pretext for invasion.

Derek Chollet, the state department counselor, said on Wednesday that the US and its allies wanted to warn of Russia possibly carrying out such operations in Ukraine “in order to hinder their ability to do so”.

“We are trying to be as forthcoming as possible, to say that’s their play and what could be coming,” Chollet said.

In doing so, the US and UK are trying to beat Russia at what has largely been Moscow’s game in recent years – or at least to provide better opposition.

“I think it’s the west getting a little more savvy on using intelligence in an actionable way,” John Sipher, a veteran of the CIA’s clandestine service, said. “It’s what we used to call – when the Russians did it – information warfare, and it’s something we’ve never got very good at.

Read the full article here.

The European parliament approved a €1.2bn loan to Ukraine for external financial needs in 2022, reported the Irish Times.

The European Parliament has approved a €1.2 billion macro-financial loan to help Ukraine cover its external financing needs in 2022.

MEPs backed the resolution under the urgency procedure on Monday to fast-track the European Commission’s new package, which was proposed by the European Commission in January amid looming fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine...

It will be paid out in two instalments.

Half of the €1.2 billion loan can be disbursed immediately to foster stability in Ukraine, if certain preconditions are met.

The loan serves as “swift support in a situation of acute crisis and to strengthen the resilience of the country”, the proposal states.

Ukraine’s external financing has dried up due to Russia’s military threat and the worsening economic situation in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Read the full article here.

During a press conference today, Price also said that Russia’s ongoing claims that they are de-escalating their military presence around Ukraine is false, but that diplomacy remains possible.

“To be very, very clear, we have not seen that,” said Price in regards to Russia’s claims of military de-escalation.

Price also said that Russian officials are spreading disinformation to provide pretext for a possible invasion, including statements about military provocations made by Ukraine or the US as well as human rights violations in Ukraine.

“People must treat any and all of these claims with the appropriate and healthy skepticism,” said Price, adding that all claims made by Russian state media should be viewed with doubt unless vetted by independent media.

“Russia relies on confusion. Russia relies on obfuscation. Russia relies on misinformation and disinformation to cover its tracks,” said Price. “We should all expect that and we should all be ready for that.”

Updated

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, will be attending the Munich security conference in Germany on Friday to discuss Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, confirmed the State Department.

A statement from the state department spokesperson, Ned Price, said Blinken will attend the four-day conference, discussing efforts to get Russia to de-escalate and ways to strengthen European security.

Blinken will also be meeting with counterparts about other global issues.

Updated

Summary

That’s all from me, Léonie Chao-Fong in London, for today. I’m handing over to my colleague Gloria Oladipo but before I do, here are the key events so far:

Updated

Russia is continuing to send troops to what is now the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the cold war, contradicting Moscow’s claims of a drawdown on Ukraine’s border, Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said.

Despite suggestions from Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, that a “partial” withdrawal was in effect, Stoltenberg said Russian military capability was only increasing in number and strength.

In a warning shot to the Kremlin, Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, announced that the military alliance was considering deploying further battle groups in eastern and central Europe.

They would complement those established in 2014 in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States. The French government has offered to lead a force in Romania.

During a break in talks between Nato defence ministers in Brussels, Stoltenberg said:

We will have advice from the military commanders within weeks and we will make a decision after that.

What we see today is that Russia maintains a massive invasion force ready to attack with high end capabilities from Crimea to Belarus. This is the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the cold war.

An attack could come “at any time” by Russia, the White House said. In a briefing, press secretary Jen Psaki said

There’s what Russia says, and there’s what Russia does, and we’re watching very closely what steps they’re taking but they remain amassed in a threatening way.

US officials are not yet able to attribute who was responsible for a cyber attack against Ukraine.

She said any Russian attack on Ukraine could be preceded by a “false flag” operation and misinformation.

The UK will scrap the so-called “golden visa” scheme next week in a bid to halt the flow of Russian “dirty money” into the UK, the Times reports.

The home secretary, Priti Patel, has decided to close the route because of “long-standing concerns” over abuse of the scheme by criminal groups and the super-rich from several countries, the paper writes.

Under the scheme, launched in 2008, applicants provide a minimum investment of £2m in exchange for the right to live in Britain. They can later apply for full citizenship and a passport.

The decision comes amid increased scrutiny of Britain’s visa rules and how tier 1 investor visas granted to the super-rich from several countries, including Russia, China and Kazakhstan, may be connected to “dirty money”.

Britain has faced criticism over claims it has failed to properly monitor the billions of pounds of Russian money which has flowed into London over the past two decades.

Patel has now decided to scrap the scheme altogether and is understood to have brought forward a decision on the visas due to increased scrutiny in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine, the Times writes.

Updated

Hundreds of US paratroopers landed at a Polish airport near the Ukrainian border as part of a deployment of several thousand to bolster NATO’s eastern flank amid tensions with Russia, Agence France-Presse reports.

Soldiers were seen disembarking from two Boeing C-17 military transport planes and boarding buses at Rzeszow Airport, located around 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

Armoured cars, military trucks, containers and dozens more soldiers were seen at a makeshift camp set up opposite the airport terminal.

“We don’t know yet,” a sergeant manning a checkpoint into the camp, who declined to be named, told AFP when asked how long they might stay.

The US has said it is planning to temporarily deploy around 4,700 additional soldiers to EU and NATO member Poland, bringing the US military presence in the country to around 10,000 troops on rotation.

US soldiers disembark from a C-17 Globemaster cargo plane on the tarmac of Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport, south eastern Poland
US soldiers disembark from a C-17 Globemaster cargo plane on the tarmac of Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport, south eastern Poland Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images
Dozens of US paratroopers landed at Rzeszow Airport in Poland
Dozens of US paratroopers landed at Rzeszow Airport in Poland Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images
US Air Force CH-47 Chinook helicopters seen landing at the airport in Jasionka near Rzeszow
US Air Force CH-47 Chinook helicopters seen landing at the airport in Jasionka near Rzeszow Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images

Ukraine’s candidate for the Eurovision song contest, Alina Pash, has withdrawn from the process following claims that she made a trip to Crimea, an area where Russia seized control in 2014.

Ukraine’s national broadcaster had already put her confirmation as the country’s act on hold while an investigation was being carried out into a 2015 trip she made to Crimea.

Under Ukrainian law, it is illegal to travel to Crimea via Russia. Pash had provided official documentation showing that she did not enter Crimea via Russia, but that is currently under scrutiny.

In an Instagram post, Pash, 28, wrote:

I am a Ukrainian citizen. I follow Ukrainian law and try to bring Ukraine’s traditions and values into the world.

What this story has come to is not at all what I tried to convey with my song.

She added:

I don’t want to be in this dirty story anymore. With a heavy heart I withdraw my candidacy as the representative of Ukraine in the Eurovision song contest.

I am really sorry.

Updated

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky declares 'we will defend ourselves'

At an address in the eastern port city of Mariupol, President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed that his country would fight back against any invasion.

Wearing a military-style olive green coat during a speech to mark what he had declared Ukraine’s “Day of Unity”, Zelensky said:

We are not afraid of forecasts, we are not afraid of anyone, of any enemies. We will defend ourselves.

He went on to say:

We have a wonderful, strong armed forces. We have excellent diplomats, volunteer forces and national resistance forces throughout Ukraine.

The strength to protect us. Protect your land. Enough force to not succumb to any provocations.

UK to double number of British troops in Estonia as part of Nato mission

Britain will double the size of the British force in Estonia as part of a Nato deployment and will send equipment, including tanks and armoured fighting vehicles, to the country amid fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In a statement, the UK’s defence minister, Ben Wallace, said:

Alongside our Nato allies, we are deploying troops and assets on land, sea and air to bolster European defences in response to the build-up of Russian military forces on the border of Ukraine.

Nato and our allies have been clear that an invasion of Ukraine will be met with severe consequences.

Updated

This is also from Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, who said he was “grateful” to the UK for its support.

His remarks were in response to a tweet by the UK’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, who said the UK “remains unwavering in our support for the hard-won peace, freedom and democratic progress that has been made since Ukraine’s independence”.

From Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, a day after Russia failed to attend a meeting of members of the OSCE, the world’s largest security body, to explain its military build-up near the Ukraine border:

Updated

The latest Ukrainian intelligence report shows no evidence of Russia pulling back its forces from near Ukraine’s borders, the defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told Reuters.

He said Ukraine will only believe Russia is serious about defusing the current crisis if it withdraws its troops, military hardware and weapons, including forces deployed in Belarus for drills.

Reznikov said:

All the troops that they brought up … must return to their permanent deployment points. Then it will be clear that they have cancelled their aggressive plans

Withdrawal of people is not enough – weapons and equipment must also leave

According to the Ukrainian military, about 140,000 combined Russian military and pro-Russian separatist forces are currently massed near Ukraine, including 125,000 ground troops. There are 9,000 Russian troops in Belarus alone, he said.

In comparison, Reznikov said Ukraine has around 35,000 troops in its eastern Donbass region, where Kyiv has been battling a Russian-backed separatist insurgency since 2014.

Updated

The threat of war in Ukraine has not led to a rush of relatives of British citizens to apply for visas to come to the UK, even though UK officials now think the threat is greater than at any point.

The UK urged all British citizens to leave Ukraine immediately last Friday, saying there was an imminent threat of invasion. But the number of close relatives of British citizens applying for visas to come to the UK, a proxy for the scale of any exodus, has not risen substantially in recent days.

The UK is nevertheless setting up a second visa and passport processing point for those trying to leave Ukraine at Lviv, 70km from the Polish border. There is still no plan to close the embassy in Kyiv, which is being staffed by the ambassador, Melinda Simmons, and a core team.

It is thought there are between 3,000 and 5,000 British nationals in Ukraine, but the embassy in Kyiv has no means of knowing how many have responded to the UK warning to leave the country, either by plane or overland. British diplomats expect a core of this group will not leave, since they are either married to Ukrainians or have longterm business interests in the country.

The number of dependents of British citizens applying for visas is running at about 100 a day, not noticeably up on the normal figures. The UK has waived application fees for family members of British citizens returning from Ukraine, as well as the English language test.

Separately, about 350 Ukrainians are applying for visa applicants. There is a backlog of more than 2,000 applicants. Ukrainians have access to visa-free travel in the EU so if there was a humanitarian crisis, tens of thousands could leave.

There is no UK plan to lift its visa restrictions on Ukrainians.

British officials insist it would be a huge catastrophe if Putin invaded, since the Ukrainian army is determined to resist, and if the invasion does not happen, Putin can still pull a series of other levers over future months.

They claim the crisis has worsened since 2014, since Putin now has unrestricted access to Ukraine through a hostile Belarus border and the Black Sea.

Updated

Derek Chollet, a senior adviser to the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, told reporters on a conference call that the US was not “able to verify any de-escalatory steps” taken by Russia since the Kremlin announced troops were being sent back to their bases on Tuesday.

Chollet said:

We see the opposite, forces continue to flow in and around Ukraine.

“Our assessment remains that an attack could come any day,” Chollet added, although he said that the US view remained that President Vladimir Putin had made no final decision to invade Ukraine.

In the briefing, Chollet said:

There is still the opportunity for diplomacy to prevail.

But he insisted there could be no concessions on a core Putin demand to block Nato membership for Ukraine, and that there was no difference between the US and Germany on the issue.

He said Blinken had spoken to his German, French and British counterparts on Tuesday and that:

There is no change in our common position. Russia is not going to get a veto over anybody’s future when it comes to Nato.

Updated

Nato defence ministers have issued a statement on the crisis on Ukraine’s border at the end of a first day of talks in Brussels.

It says:

We are gravely concerned by the very large scale, unprovoked and unjustified Russian military build-up in and around Ukraine and in Belarus.

We urge Russia, in the strongest possible terms, to choose the path of diplomacy, and to immediately reverse its build-up and withdraw its forces from Ukraine in accordance with its international obligations and commitments.

The statement goes on describe Russia’s actions as a posing “a serious threat to Euro-Atlantic security”.

As a consequence and to ensure the defence of all Allies, we are deploying additional land forces in the eastern part of the Alliance, as well as additional maritime and air assets, as announced by Allies, and have increased the readiness of our forces.

Our measures are and remain preventive, proportionate and non-escalatory. We are prepared to further strengthen our defensive and deterrent posture to respond to all contingencies.

Any further Russian aggression against Ukraine will have “massive consequences” and carry a “high price”.

The statement concludes:

We have repeatedly offered, and continue to offer, further dialogue through the NATO-Russia Council, and stand ready to engage. We strongly encourage Russia to reciprocate and to choose diplomacy and de-escalation.

Updated

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, speaking in Brussels, has gone on to describe Russia’s contesting of the fundamental principles of European security as “the new normal”, in defence of the alliance’s plans for further troops in central and eastern Europe.

He said Russia had sought to amass “the biggest concentration of combat forces since the end of the cold war” to “intimidate other countries in Europe” into accepting their demand that Nato rule out future member status for Ukraine.

Updated

Nato defence ministers have decided to develop options for strengthening Nato’s defences, Stoltenberg tells reporters.

Nato will look into establishing new battle groups in central and south-east regions within the alliance with a focus on Romania and the Black Sea region, with military commanders reporting back in weeks about the details.

Stoltenberg said:

Ministers decided to develop options to further strengthen Nato’s deterrence and defence, including to consider establishing new Nato battlegroups in central and eastern and south-eastern Europe.

Updated

Nato considering new battlegroups to bolster eastern flank

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, is holding a press conference at the military alliance’s headquarters following talks with defence ministers.

He has told reporters that Nato is considering further battle groups to complement the four in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, led by the UK, Canada, Germany and the US.

Stoltenberg said the French government had offered to lead a battlegroup in Romania, adding:

We will have advice from the military commanders within weeks and we will make a decision after that.

The development risks antagonising Moscow but it will also be seen as a warning to the Kremlin that the aggression of recent months will be rewarded with a further Nato presence in central and eastern Europe.

Updated

Stoltenberg says Russia's military buildup around Ukraine is 'biggest concentration of forces in Europe since Cold War'

Stoltenberg describes Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine as “the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the Cold War.”

He said Nato allies have agreed that further Russian aggression against Ukraine would have a “high cost”.

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Stoltenberg says Nato remains “prepared for dialogue”, adding:

Nato will not compromise on core principles – the right of each nation to choose its own path and our right to defend our allies.

Nato is not a threat to Russia.

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Nato secretary general sees 'no sign of de-escalation on the ground' and warns Russia it's not to late to step back

The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, says ministers “do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground” from Russia.

He says Nato allies have welcomed all diplomatic efforts, and there are signs from Moscow that diplomacy could continue.

“But so far we do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground. No withdrawals of troops or equipment.

“It is not too late for Russia to step back from the brink of war,” he added.

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Nato defence ministers attending talks in Brussels today gathering for a “family photo”:

NATO Defence Ministers meeting in Brussels
NATO Defence Ministers meeting in Brussels
Defence ministers from the NATO alliance pose for a family photo in Brussels. Photograph: Johanna Geron/Reuters

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Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg to give press conference on Ukraine

The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, is due to give a press conference shortly after a day of meetings with the defence ministers from all member countries.

The ministers will meet again tomorrow for a full day of talks.

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The 27 heads of state and government of the EU member states are to hold a meeting ahead of a summit with EU leaders on Thursday to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine crisis, a spokesman for the European council president, Charles Michel, has announced.

Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 leading economies would discuss the Ukraine crisis this week but it was unclear whether they would issue a joint statement with a political signal or simply exchange views, a German government official said on Wednesday.

Indonesia hosts a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs on Thursday and Friday.

On Monday, the finance ministers of the G7 group of large western economies warned Russia of “massive” economic consequences if it chose to invade Ukraine, to whose economy they also promised swift and decisive support.

It is not known whether the larger G20 group, which includes China and Russia itself, will issue a similarly harsh warning to Moscow.

(Via Reuters)

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As you see, Bolsonaro was afforded a rather more intimate table arrangement than Macron and Scholz, both of whom were seated at the other end of a vast – and vastly more meme-friendly – table.

RUSSIA-BRAZIL-POLITICS-DIPLOMACYRussian President Vladimir Putin (2ndLR) meets with Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro (2ndL) at the Kremlin, in Moscow, on February 16, 2022. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin (second-right) meets with Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro (second-left), at the Kremlin in Moscow on Wednesday. Photograph: Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images

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After meeting France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz over recent days, Putin is now pressing the flesh with Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro in Moscow.

RUSSIA-BRAZIL-POLITICS-DIPLOMACYRussian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro during a meeting at the Kremlin, in Moscow, on February 16, 2022. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
RUSSIA-BRAZIL-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro during a meeting at the Kremlin, in Moscow, on February 16, 2022. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images) Photograph: Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images

Flights from London to Kyiv were operating normally on Wednesday, despite claims by the US administration and others that a Russian invasion might take place in the early hours of the morning.

Ryanair flight RK3677 took off at 7.30am as scheduled from London Stansted airport and landed at Kyiv Borispol airport at 12.35 local time. The plane was half full and most passengers were Ukrainians returning home from the UK.

“We were rota-ed as normal,” one Ryanair steward said, adding: “Ukraine has covered the additional insurance cost.”

Kyiv’s international airport was quieter than usual, with few travellers to be seen.
The government of president Volodymyr Zelensky has allocated $592m (£437m) to guarantee the continuation of flights to and from the country as the crisis with Moscow continues.

Earlier this week the Dutch carrier KLM cancelled flights to Ukraine after the Netherlands government issued a travel warning. Germany’s Lufthansa is considering suspending air traffic.

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The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has surprised many Germans after appearing to stand up to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, during their tense press conference in Moscow yesterday.

German commentators on Wednesday described their new leader as being typically pursed-lipped but surprisingly combative in his approach to Putin, after weeks in which he has faced criticism for showing a lack of leadership over the security crisis and of being too mild-mannered towards Moscow.

Scholz, appearing to relish the subtle swipes swapped between the two of them, at one point even caused the Russian leader to raise his eyebrows when taking a dig at how Putin is able to choose how long he stays in power.

Poking fun at Putin’s fear of Nato’s eastern enlargement, Scholz said it was not likely to happen during either man’s time in office.

“There is the somewhat peculiar situation that it is not even on the agenda. Everyone knows that very well,” Scholz said.

“It is not an issue that we are likely to encounter again in our offices as long as we hold them. I don’t know how long the president plans to stay in office,” he said, gesturing towards Putin. “I’ve got a feeling it could be a while but not forever.”

Putin reacted by raising his eyebrows and smiling.

The leftwing daily TAZ commented that while no one had expected Scholz and Putin to “kiss farewell” to each other, “Putin did not throw his guest out of the Kremlin and remains prepared for further dialogue. In this regard, the chancellor’s visit was quite an orderly affair. Scholz reacted to all the jibes and little malignities of his host with the necessary countenance and also made it clear that an invasion of Ukraine would have wide-reaching consequences.”

It added that Scholz had even managed to utter the words “Nord Stream” – having avoided doing so until now, much to the annoyance of his western allies.

The Düsseldorf-based Rheinische Post said Scholz’s visit had been a “strong performance”, in which he “did not avoid any topics of conflict, choosing clear words on the conviction of the Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny and the banning of the human rights organisation Memorial”.

But Spiegel said that no one – not even Scholz’s biggest fans – had expected him to effect any major movement in the crisis. It also noted that the circumstances around their meeting – the discussion at either end of a six-metre-long table and the Kremlin’s insistence on every one of Germany’s 50-strong delegation carrying out three PCR tests in the four days ahead of the visit, followed by one by Russian authorities on arrival – “showed how fragile the situation is”.

The historian and journalist Katja Hoyer tweeted that the trip to Moscow “showcased a more assertive Scholz”, while Wolfgang Ischinger, chairperson of the Munich Security Conference said that Scholz should be congratulated and could “return home having not been humiliated by Putin”.

Some commentators have drawn parallels between Scholz and his predecessor, Angela Merkel. She often, particularly at the start of her chancellorship, appeared invisible at home but was able to win considerable domestic support after rising to the challenge on the international stage.

Much was made in Germany of the fact that Scholz put his foot down and refused to allow Russian doctors to administer his PCR test on arrival in Moscow. Instead, a doctor from the German embassy was sent on to his plane after landing to carry it out and Scholz remained on board for 40 minutes while waiting for the result from the mobile testing laboratory, which had been brought on to the plane, to come through.

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European Commission warns Russia that EU sanctions will 'bite very hard'

The head of the European Commission has warned Russia that EU sanctions “can bite very hard” as she urged the Kremlin not to choose war.

In a speech to the European parliament in Strasbourg, Ursula von der Leyen said EU institutions and member states were working on a “robust and comprehensive package of potential sanctions” in cooperation with the US, UK and Canada. These sanctions would hit Russian access to hi-tech components, she said, making it harder for Russia to diversify its economy away from oil and gas.

Von der Leyen said:

We are not just talking about freezing assets and banning travel for Russian individuals. Russia’s strategic interest is to diversify its one-sided economy and to close its current gaps. But for this, they need technologies in which we have a global leadership. High-tech components for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us. Our sanctions can bite very hard, and the Kremlin knows this well.

Speaking at the same debate, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, said any aggression against Ukraine from Russia must lead to a “severe” cost and massive consequences. He acknowledged the EU would also pay a price, saying Europeans would also face “heavy” consequences, but had to be ready to assume this responsibility.

Sanctions would have to be agreed unanimously by all EU member states and there are already concerns that some countries, such as Hungary, will thwart adoption of the toughest measures. In 2014 the EU agreed on wide-ranking economic sanctions against Russia in response to its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, but only after the downing of the MH17 passenger plane that killed 298 people.

MEPs are expected later on Wednesday to approve a €1.2m assistance package for Ukraine, recently proposed by von der Leyen.

Nato accuses Russia of increasing numbers of troops on Ukraine border despite claims of de-escalation

Nato has accused Russia of sending more troops to a massive military build-up around Ukraine, even as Moscow said that it was withdrawing forces and was open to diplomacy.

At the start of two days of talks among Nato defence ministers, its secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg appeared unconvinced that the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine had lessened, and voiced guarded hopes for diplomacy, Reuters reports.

“We have not seen any withdrawal of Russian forces. And of course, that contradicts the message of diplomatic efforts,” Soltenberg said. “What we see is that they have increased the number of troops and more troops are on their way. So, so far, no de-escalation.”

The Russian defence ministry has published video that it says shows tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery units leaving the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

However Stoltenberg cautioned that Russians have frequently repositioned military equipment and troops during the build-up. “Movement of forces, of battle tanks, doesn’t confirm a real withdrawal,” he said.

Nato will consider new steps to deter Russia on its eastern flank, including a likely pledge to send more troops and equipment to Nato members in eastern Europe, following a series of announcements over the past six weeks in response to the Russian threat in Ukraine’s north, east and south. Diplomats said that could involve 4,000 new troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.

Ministers will also consider the alliance’s nuclear deterrents, although discussions are highly confidential. Russia has amassed a large stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons.

“The escalation of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border is increasing and significant, and implores us as an alliance to continue to work together,” Canada’s defence minister Anita Anand said as she arrived for the meeting.

An invasion of Ukraine by Russia would “shake the foundations of the international order and have severe consequences”, the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, and his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, have agreed in a call.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: “The leaders discussed the deeply concerning situation on the border of Ukraine and the prime minister thanked prime minister Kishida for his offer to divert Japanese energy supplies to Europe.

“Both agreed that the international community needed to stand united against an invasion of an independent country and said they would not tolerate Russia’s aggression.

“An invasion would shake the foundations of international order and have severe consequences, they agreed.”

For more on the UK political political reaction to the crisis in Ukraine, please follow our dedicated UK politics live blog

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The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has criticised the vote by Russia’s lower house of parliament asking Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, calling it illegal.

Enactment of the resolution would undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty, violate international law, call into question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy and “necessitate a swift and firm response from the United States in full coordination with our Allies and partners”, Blinken said in a statement.

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Russian threat to Ukraine still critical, senior western official says, with attack possible with 'little warning'

Russian military exercises are at their peak stage and the risk of Russian aggression against Ukraine will remain high for the rest of February, a senior western intelligence official has told the Reuters news agency.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, Reuters reports that the official said western intelligence had established that the greatest period of risk of conflict or an unintended military incident was now. “I expect things to be really confusing and ambiguous for the next couple of weeks,” the official said.

Russia claimed more of its forces surrounding Ukraine were withdrawing on Wednesday, after it announced the end to some military exercises on Tuesday.

“We are at a peak period where the exercises that the Russians had announced are in their active phases,” the official said, adding that Russia would probably fire ballistic missiles eastwards from Belarus as part of its drills over the next few months.

“There are no credible signs at this point that there will be any kind of military de-escalation,” the official said.

Russia could now attack Ukraine “with essentially no, or little-to-no, warning”, the official said.

Western intelligence also pointed to Russia’s ability to maintain the current forces in place for several more months if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, so wished, the official said.

Russia has repeatedly said it has no plans to invade Ukraine and that it is carrying out military drills on its territory.

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The Kremlin and senior officials have mocked western media for running with 16 February as the “invasion date” when Russia may attack Ukraine.

“I’d like to ask if US and British sources of disinformation ... could publish the schedule of our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my holidays,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on social media.

Western intelligence had warned that Moscow could choose Wednesday to escalate an ongoing separatist conflict in Ukraine, after building up a force estimated at more than 100,000 troops near the borders.

They said, however, that the date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort. Some media, citing intelligence reports, specified Russian attacks could begin early on Wednesday morning.

“The night passed as usual. We slept peacefully. In the morning we started the day calmly and professionally,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

(Via AFP)

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Reuters reports that Lithuania’s central bank is warning the country’s banks of potential powercuts and cyberattacks.

It comes shortly after the Kremlin denied any involvement in Tuesday’s cyberattacks, which hit websites at Ukraine’s defence ministry and armed forces as well as two state banks.

Lithuania’s central bank has told the country’s banks to prepare for power cuts and cyberattacks as Russia’s standoff with Ukraine risks spilling over into a military conflict, according to a document and two sources familiar with the matter.

Russia has amassed over 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders, prompting fears of an invasion.

Losing electricity and internet access are among “extreme but possible” scenarios that Lithuania’s central bank told finance companies to be ready for in a letter sent to them last week and seen by Reuters.

Lithuania, as well as Baltic neighbours Latvia and Estonia, shares a common power grid with Russia run from Moscow.

“Increased geopolitical tension in the region leads to increased threats of cyber-attacks, including attacks on critical information infrastructure,” the central bank warned in the letter.

The letter did not name any possible hackers.

Despite Moscow’s assurances that it is scaling back its troop buildup, Poland is planning for a possible influx of refugees from Ukraine in case of a Russian invasion, according to the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki.

Speaking as Nato said the number of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders was continuing to grow, Morawiecki said infrastructure for refugees would be set up near its eastern border with Ukraine, but some might be moved elsewhere later.

In the next few days I will be convening a team ... which will deal with issues of logistics, facilities, transport, infrastructure,” Morawiecki told reporters.

“We must be prepared for the worst,” he said, adding that the team would also be tasked with securing access for refugees to health care and education. “We are helping the Ukrainians to mitigate the consequences of a Russian attack.”

(Via Reuters)

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More in this piece from Daniel Boffey on Jens Stoltenberg’s remarks earlier that Russia is increasing, rather then decreasing, its military presence on the border with Ukraine

Russia is building up its military forces on Ukraine’s border with more troops on their way, Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said, contradicting Moscow’s claims of a drawdown.

Despite suggestions from the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday that a “partial” withdrawal was in effect, Stoltenberg warned that Russian military capability was only increasing in number and strength.

The former Norwegian prime minister said Nato needed to be “prepared for the worst” while holding out hope that the signalling from Putin in recent days was evidence of a sincere desire to find a diplomatic way through the crisis.

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The configuration of Russia’s armed forces in the west of the country will return to normal in three to four weeks, TASS news agency has cited Russia’s ambassador to Ireland as saying. (Via Reuters)

Russia promises to retaliate should Britain impose sanctions against Moscow

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has said Russia would retaliate should Britain impose new sanctions against Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.

Britain threatened on Tuesday to block Russian companies from raising capital in London and to expose property and company ownership if Russia invades Ukraine, a move Moscow has repeatedly denied planning.

(Via Reuters)

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AFP has more on the Kremlin denying it had anything to do with Tuesday’s cyberattack on Ukraine, which hit websites at the country’s defence ministry and armed forces as well as two state banks.

Kyiv had suggested the attack came from Russia as fears persist that Moscow is planning to invade its Western-backed neighbour Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters:

“We do not know anything. As expected, Ukraine continues blaming Russia for everything. Russia has nothing to do with any DDOS attacks.

The affected sites included the Oschadbank state savings bank and Privat - two of the country’s largest financial institutions.

Both resumed service later on Tuesday but the military sites remained inaccessible hours after the initial reports of the attack emerged.

Ukraine’s communications watchdog pointed the finger at Moscow.

“It cannot be excluded that the aggressor is resorting to dirty tricks,” the watchdog said in reference to Russia.

Tuesday’s cyberattack came one month after another strike briefly took down key government websites.

Nato responded within hours of the January attack by announcing a cyber warfare cooperation deal with Kyiv. The European Union also said it was mobilising “all its resources” to help Ukraine at the time.

Kyiv said the damage in January had been limited and held back on apportioning blame.

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The European Union has urged Russia to take “concrete” steps to ease tensions around Ukraine, AFP reports.

The European Council president, Charles Michel, told EU lawmakers:

Russia has signalled that it may be open to diplomacy and we urge Russia to take concrete and tangible steps towards de-escalation because this is the condition for sincere political dialogue. We cannot eternally attempt diplomacy on one side, while the other side is amassing troops.

Updated

Reuters just reporting that the Kremlin is saying it had nothing to do with last night’s DDOS cyberattacks on Ukraine. The Kremlin also says that recognising the breakaway east Ukraine regions would not be in line with the Minsk peace agreements.

Updated

Russia has announced new troop withdrawals from Crimea as the country continues a “partial” drawdown announced by Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

But the majority of those troops would return to permanent bases that are just dozens of kilometres from Ukraine, meaning they could be redeployed quickly in case of an escalation or an attack.

The new troop movements were announced by the Russian ministry of defence, which said that units from the southern military district had “completed their participation in tactical games at ranges on the Crimean peninsula and are heading to their bases by train.”

Military vehicles including tanks and self-propelled artillery had been loaded on to trains and sent across a bridge from Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, to the country’s mainland, the ministry said.

Izvestia, a Russian newspaper with good sources in the defence ministry, reported that the units returning to their bases were the 3rd, 42nd, and 150th motorised rifle divisions.

Video released by the defence ministry’s Zvezda television channel reportedly showed elements of the 42nd motorised rifle division crossing the Crimean bridge.

But as analysts noted, two of the divisions are stationed very close to Ukraine. The 3rd motorised rifle division has permanent bases to the northeast of Ukraine while the 150th motorised rifle division is garrisoned near Rostov-on-Don, just to Ukraine’s southeast.

Should the units indeed return to their permanent bases, only the 42nd motorised rifle division would be taking a longer trip back to Chechnya.

Ruslan Leviev, of the open source Conflict Intelligence Team, drafted a map of their permanent bases, noting that some of the troops were “being withdrawn in the direction of the border with Ukraine.”

At the same time, he noted, there were more reports of heavy weaponry like TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers, arriving to Kursk from the Volga river city of Samara.

The dubious troop movements associated with Putin’s “partial withdrawal” underline the scepticism expressed by western officials that Russia may not be preparing to reduce its pressure on Ukraine anytime soon.

Ahead of a meeting of Nato’s defence ministers in Brussels, the military alliance’s general secretary, Jens Stoltenberg, said that far from there being a withdrawal of significant Russian forces, the Kremlin was building up its forces on Ukraine’s border, with “more troops on the way”.

So far we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground. On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues the military build-up and we have not received a response to a written document or written proposals that we sent to Russia on the 26 January outlining the topics and items where Nato allies are ready to sit down and discuss with Russia to try to find a political path forward.

Stoltenberg said Russia would not decide whether Ukraine would be a Nato member but that the alliance saw purpose in further talks.

We will continue to convey a very clear message to Russia that we are ready to sit down and discuss with them, but at the same time we are prepared for the worst. And if Russia once again invades Ukraine, they will pay a high price and we will continue to expose Russian plans and actions so as to make it harder for them to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine.

Defence ministers for the 30 Nato member states will meet for two days.

Updated

The Canadian defence minister, Anita Anand, says while she hopes to see evidence of a Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine’s borders, the numbers are increasing.

Arriving at the meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels, Anand said:

The escalation of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border, including in Belarus, is increasingly significant. We look forward to seeing evidence of the withdrawal of troops on Russia’s part. But we need to prepare for any eventuality with that significant escalation of Russian troops that we have seen over the last week

(Via Reuters)

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More on the cyber-attack, via the Globe and Mail’s senior international correspondent Mark MacKinnon

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My colleague Shaun Walker, currently in Kyiv, says this thread from the analyst Mark Galeotti is well worth a read.

Today has been declared a national unity day by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, with the order that at 10am Ukrainians should wave the national flags and sing the national anthem.

In Kyiv, employees gathered outside government institutions to do so, but there was little public enthusiasm for the move. On Maidan, the large square that was the heart of the 2014 revolution, a small group of people sang the anthem, but were outnumbered by journalists.

Kyiv has not felt like a city about to suffer invasion in recent days but nonetheless the constant warnings of invasion have taken a toll.

The leading Ukrainian journalist Kristina Berdynskykh summed up the mood of many in a Twitter post:

These emotional swings and psychological pressure are very tiring. Today everyone breathed a sigh of relief that we weren’t attacked. Tomorrow there’ll be information they’re moving stuff closer to the border again and it will all start again. But people will get used to this too and will just stop reading the news.

Updated

Speaking in the European parliament, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has told MEPs that the Kremlin needs to show on the ground that it is withdrawing from the Ukrainian border.

She said:

I think diplomacy has not yet spoken its last words and we saw signs of hope yesterday but now deeds have to follow those spoken words.

Von der Leyen, a former German defence minister, said Russia was threatening Ukraine because it was today a free, independent and sovereign state.

The ideas of spheres of influence are ghosts of the last century. This crisis is about Ukraine but it is also about much, much more. It is about what it means to be an independent free nation in the 21st century.

On the Kremlin’s apparent announcement of a withdrawal of troops and hardware from the Ukrainian border, and the vote in the Duma in support of recognition of Russian-controlled separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk, Von der Leyen said:

I truly hope that the Kremlin will decide not to unleash further violence in Europe but yesterday russia was certainly sending conflicting signals.

Von der Leyen said she was concerned that Russia was weaponising gas supplies to Europe, and that the Kremlin’s reputation as a reliable supplier had been damaged.

She said:

We are hoping for the best but we are prepared for the worst. We now have two distinct futures ahead of us: in one the Kremlin decides to wage war against Ukraine with massive human costs, something we thought we had left behind after the tragedies of the 20th century. Moscow’s relations with us would be severely damaged, tough sanctions would kick in with dire consequences on the Russian economy and its prospects of modernisation.

But another future is possible. A future in which Russia and Europe cooperate on shared interests. A future where free countries work together in peace. A future of prosperity built on the fundamental principles enshrined in the UN charter and the European security architecture since the Helsinki final act.

This is my aspiration and I am sure the Russian people share this aspiration too. It is now up to the Kremlin to decide but whatever path they decide to take we will stand our ground. Europe will be united on the side of Ukraine, united on the side of peace and on the side of Europe’s people. Long live Europe.

Updated

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European commission, issues a “crystal clear” call to Russia ...

A little on how talk of the supposed Russian withdrawal is going down in Australia, courtesy of Australian Associated Press.

Reports of a Russian pullback from Ukraine were “unconvincing and unconfirmed”, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says.

Morrison told parliament on Wednesday cyber attacks on Ukraine ran counter to reports that Russia was about to engage in a pullback.

He said:

Russia must unconditionally withdraw. If Russia attacks Ukraine, it will be met with overwhelming international condemnation. The world will not forget that Russia chose needless death and destruction.

Earlier, a senior foreign affairs official said Australia remained cautiously optimistic about reports of Russian troops withdrawing from the Ukrainian border.

But foreign affairs department deputy secretary Katrina Cooper told a Senate committee there was deep concern about the situation.

Cooper said:

We’re hearing suggestions that a diplomatic off-ramp is still possible. There’s grounds for very cautious optimism in terms of what we’ve seen overnight. It’s an encouraging sign we are hearing [but] those reports are coming out of Russia - we do need to drill down a little bit into that.

The Kyiv mayor, Vitali Klitschko, has said that he hopes for a “last-minute” diplomatic solution between Russia and Ukraine.

The former heavyweight champion of the world told LBC radio that he hoped that Russia would not invade his country on Wednesday.

It is the first time in the history of Ukraine that so many Russian soldiers stayed at the border. The risk [of] aggression towards Ukraine is pretty big.

We prepare for any scenario. We do not know how the situation will develop but we hope that the invasion does not happen, and that at the last minute we have a diplomatic solution.

(Via PA)

Updated

Good morning. Sam Jones here taking over from my colleague Samantha Lock. Looking ahead, Nato defence ministers are meeting in Brussels today amid reports that the Russian forces that have been encircling Ukraine are withdrawing. Such suggestions, however, are being met with considerable scepticism so far. We’re expecting comments from the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, in just under an hour.

Russian military announces troops are leaving Crimea

The Russian military has announced the return of units of the Southern Military District from exercises in Crimea.

Ukraine’s Interfax news agency reports the Russian defence ministry released a statement on Wednesday, saying troops had already crossed the Crimean bridge.

Units of the Southern Military District (AFD), which have completed participation in tactical exercises at the Crimean peninsula, are marching to permanent locations by rail.

Military echelons will deliver military equipment and servicemen to the permanent deployment points of military units.

Defense ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov added:

Units of the Southern and Western military districts, which have completed the task, have already started loading on rail and road transport and will start moving to their military garrisons today. Some units will march on their own as part of military columns.

A number of combat training measures, including exercises, have been carried out in accordance with the plan. As the combat training measures are completed, troops will, as always, march in a combined manner to permanent deployment points.”

UK defence secretary sceptical of Russia's claim of withdrawal of troops

Britain’s defence secretary has said Russia should be judged by its actions when it comes to de-escalating tension at the Ukraine border, adding he has not seen evidence of a withdrawal of troops.

Speaking in Brussels ahead of a meeting of Nato defence ministers, Ben Wallace told Sky News on Wednesday morning:

We’ll take Russia at its word, but we will judge them on their actions.

Until we see a proper de-escalation, we should all be cautious about the direction of travel from the Kremlin.”

Wallace added that the latest intelligence shows that 60% of Russian land combat power remains on the Ukrainian border along with significant naval power at sea.

Ukraine is now “fairly surrounded” by Russian troops and “it’s a force that would overwhelm Ukraine should it be deployed”, the defence secretary warned.

Updated

Financial markets have been far less sceptical about the reports of Russian troops withdrawing. Stocks rose strongly in Asia Pacific in Wednesday’s session with the Nikkei in Tokyo soaring 2.2%, the Hang Seng up 1.32% and the Kospi in Seoul up 1.99%. China’s benchmark stocks were also up 0.57% and in Sydney the ASX rose 1.08%.

After falling sharply on the troop reports on Tuesday night, Brent crude oil added 20c to $93.48 a barrel.

A Nikkei indicator board in Tokyo on Wednesday.
A Nikkei indicator board in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photograph: Jiji Press/EPA

Gains look like being a bit thinner in Europe though ...

The Russian defence ministry has said troops in Crimea are returning to base after publishing a video showing Russian military equipment and forces leaving the region.

The ministry said the video showed a column of tanks and military vehicles leaving annexed Crimea across a railway bridge after drills, adding that some troops would also return to their permanent bases, Reuters reports.

Agence France-Presse also reported Russian state television showed images of military units crossing a bridge back to the mainland.

The announcement comes the day after Moscow originally claimed it would withdraw troops from Ukraine’s borders.

Updated

Viktor Muzhenko, Ukrainian army general and former chief of staff and commanding officer of the armed forces of Ukraine, is on message with the defence minister. He has issued a quick tweet on Russia’s pledge to withdraw troops from the region:

It will be possible to talk about de-escalation when the actual withdrawal of parts of the Eastern and Central Armed Forces #РФ [Russia] from #Україна [Ukraine] will begin.”

Ukraine’s defence minister has said the latest threat assessments are consistent with earlier views and do not contain anything unexpected, Reuters is reporting.

Oleksii Reznikov added that a virtual meeting with all Nato defence ministers will be scheduled for Thursday while a military attache of Belarus will attend the exercises in Ukraine.

Updated

Zelenskiy says Ukrainians united by "desire to live in peace"

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy gave a televised address on Wednesday morning local time, addressing Ukrainians, who, in his words are “united by a single desire – to live, to live in peace”.

Interfax news agency reports Zelenskiy as saying:

We have every right to all this, because we are at home, we are in Ukraine. And no one will love our home the way we love. And only together we can protect our home. Happy Reunion Day, yellow and blue!”

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who gave a televised address to Ukrainians on Wednesday morning.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who gave a televised address to Ukrainians on Wednesday morning. Photograph: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Updated

Russian pledge of troop withdrawals met with widespread scepticism

The Russian defence ministry’s trumpeted announcement that some of the forces that have been encircling Ukraine will “head for their garrisons” has been met with widespread scepticism.

A group of open source intelligence analysts who reply on public domain information, including satellite imagery and a large supply of on-the-ground videos to document troop movements – are unconvinced.

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, told reporters during a press conference at alliance headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday:

We have not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground ... We see the opposite.

No attack on Ukraine ‘in the coming month’ says Russian ambassador

Russia’s ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, has denied reports of any plans to attack Ukraine in the coming month, stating that wars in Europe “rarely start on Wednesday”.

When Chizhov was asked about a US intelligence report stating Moscow’s discussion on taking military action against Ukraine on 16 February, he told German newspaper Die Welt:

Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s envoy to the EU.
Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s envoy to the EU. Photograph: Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters

As far as Russia is concerned, I can assure you that there will be no attack this Wednesday.

There will be no escalation in the coming week either, or in the week after that, or in the coming month.

Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday.

When you are making such claims – very serious claims against Russia in particular – you must back them up with evidence. Otherwise, they are nothing but libel.

The diplomat called upon western nations to take Moscow’s security issues seriously.

If our partners listen to our concerns, the de-escalation process will follow quickly. It would be beneficial for all Europeans ... and for all other nations all over the world.

Updated

China may take advantage of Ukraine crisis, US general says

China may take advantage of the Ukraine crisis and do something “provocative” in Asia while western powers are focused on defusing tensions with Russia, a US general has warned.

General Kenneth Wilsbach, the head of US Pacific air forces, noted that China had aligned itself with Russia in the crisis, Agence France-Presse reports.

Wilsbach told reporters on the sidelines of the Singapore airshow on Wednesday:

From the standpoint of will China see what’s happening in Europe and... try to do something here in the Indo-Pacific - absolutely yes, that’s a concern.

I do have my concerns that they would want to take advantage.

It won’t be surprising if they tried something that may be provocative, and see how the international community reacts.”

Wilsbach said that when Beijing expressed support for Russia in the Ukraine standoff, he held talks with his staff and other “entities” in the region about its implications.

Based in Hawaii, Wilsbach’s command would play a central role if conflict erupts in the Pacific though he did not go into specifics about what China might do during the Ukraine crisis, saying only that there were “probably a number of options” for Beijing.

Hello, welcome to our live coverage of the Ukraine crisis, I’m Samantha Lock.

Ukraine will today celebrate a “day of unity” after US president Joe Biden said Russia remained “very much in a threatening position” despite reports that some of its troops had been withdrawn.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged citizens to celebrate in light of Washington’s warning that 16 February would be the day Russia would likely launch an assault on the country.

Ukraine has also vowed to resist the cyberattacks launched against the websites of the country’s defence ministry and armed forces as well as two banks, believing the activity to have Russian origins.

Here’s a quick rundown of the key developments over the past few hours:

  • US president Joe Biden warned that an invasion from Russia is “very much a possibility” but a diplomatic resolution was still possible. He also warned that despite reports from Russia that some of its troops were returning to home bases, analysis from the US has not verified that and that Russian troops continue to remain in a threatening position.
  • Two online Ukrainian banks, Oschadbank and Privatbank, are back in operation following a suspected cyberattack.
  • Nato defence ministers are to meet today in a bid to de-escalate and avert a war in Ukraine. Nato defence ministers including the UK’s secretary of state for defence Ben Wallace, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg and US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, will meet in Brussels.
  • Ukraine’s defense ministry and two banks were knocked offline on Tuesday. “It is not ruled out that the aggressor used tactics of little dirty tricks because its aggressive plans are not working out on a large scale,” the Ukrainian data security agency said.
  • The White House said it is aware of the cyberattacks and has offered its support though clarified it has nothing on attribution concerning the attacks, US press secretary Jen Psaki told a press briefing.
  • The attacks likely affected Ukraine’s military, energy, and other key systems according to recently declassified US intelligence, the Washington Post reports.
  • Boris Johnson said Russia was sending “mixed signals” over its intentions in Ukraine, despite the troop movement reports. “The intelligence we are seeing is not encouraging,” he said.
  • Russia’s refusal to participate in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) talks demonstrates its “contempt for the commitments it freely signed up to”, the UK foreign secretary Liz Truss said.
  • The US and European allies agreed that harsh sanctions against Russia would be the most effective way to deter Putin as Biden proposed to halt Nord Stream 2, a Russian natural gas pipeline to Europe if Russia further invades.
  • Oil prices fell as much as 4% and stocks were in positive territory in Asia Pacific on Wednesday morning on hopes of a de-escalation of the standoff. However, Biden also warned that sanctions against Russia could cause further oil spikes.
  • US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer and minority leader Mitch McConnell issued a joint statement saying they wanted to send “a bipartisan message of solidarity and resolve to the people of Ukraine” as negotiations over a sanctions package against Russia stall.

Updated

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