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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Oliver Holmes

Ukraine ceasefire: what’s in the proposed deal – and what’s not

A ball of smoke or fire the weapon is fired
Members of a Ukrainian battalion fire a howitzer towards Russian troops on a frontline in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, on 7 March. Photograph: Reuters

Ukraine has said it is ready to accept a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the war with Russia.

Details of the deal – agreed after talks between senior US and Ukrainian officials in the Saudi city of Jeddah – have not been released in full but here is what is known about the terms:

A comprehensive, month-long ceasefire

The key part of a joint statement released after the Jeddah meeting was that Ukraine was willing to “enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire which can be extended”.

That goes further than a previous suggestion from Kyiv for an initial air and sea ceasefire, which left open the possibility of ground warfare to continue.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House on Tuesday after the talks, the US president, Donald Trump, said the deal was for “a total ceasefire”.

A resumption of US military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine

The talks were in large part focused on repairing a relationship between the US and Ukraine (rather than combatants Russia and Ukraine) after a disastrous Oval Office blow-up between Trump and Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

That fight led the White House to suspend military aid, including deliveries of ammunition, and to cut off vital intelligence sharing for Ukraine.

In that sense, the talks were a success for Kyiv. The joint statement said Washington “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine”. 

No security guarantees for Ukraine

However, Zelenskyy’s key demand was that the US would provide it with security guarantees – essentially a commitment to protect it if Russia were to renege on any ceasefire or peace deal.

The phrase “security guarantees” was absent from the joint statement, an omission noticed by world leaders. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, hailed the progress made in the Jeddah talks but cautioned that Kyiv needed “robust” security guarantees.

Zelenskyy said in a late-night video address that security guarantees would be agreed at a later time.

No critical minerals deal for Trump, yet...

Trump has exploited the Russian invasion of Ukraine to put pressure on Zelenskyy to sign a deal to give the US a 50% stake in revenues from the sale of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. The US president was furious that Zelenskyy had not already signed, which stoked tensions leading up to the Oval Office argument.

It was expected that the Jeddah talks might spur Zelenskyy to sign that deal as a concession to Washington, but it seems that the Ukrainian leader has managed to play for more time.

The statement said the two presidents “agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources”.

Prisoner swaps

According to the joint statement, the ceasefire will include the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children to Russia.

Ball now in ‘Russia’s court’

After the talks, Zelenskyy, in his televised statement, said Ukraine was committed to seeking peace but that it was “up to the United States to convince Russia to do the same”.

Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state who led the negotiations, said the ball was “now in Russia’s court”.

Vladimir Putin will now be forced to decide whether to conclude a temporary ceasefire or risk souring relations with the new Trump administration.

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