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Crikey
National
Oleksandr Kozkukhar

Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive

Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the east of the country as Moscow builds up its troops there after suffering setbacks near the capital Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says.

Russia’s invasion of its neighbour, now in its fifth week, has driven about a quarter of Ukrainians from their homes and brought Russian-Western tensions to their worst point since the Cold War.

Tough resistance by Ukrainian forces has prevented Russia capturing any major city, including Kyiv, where a Russian armed column was held back for weeks. 

At peace talks this week in Istanbul, Russia said it would curtail operations near Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv to build trust.

But Ukraine and its Western allies, including the United States, dismissed Russia’s pledge as a ploy to stem its losses and prepare for other attacks. 

Russia says its forces are regrouping to focus on “liberating” the breakaway eastern Donbas region.

In a video address early on Thursday, Zelenskiy referred to Russian troop movements away from Kyiv and Chernihiv and said that was not a withdrawal but rather “the consequence of our defenders’ work”.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine was seeing “a build-up of Russian forces for new strikes on the Donbas and we are preparing for that.”

Moscow has cultivated close ties with pro-Russian separatists controlling swathes of the Donbas region, which encompasses two self-proclaimed “people’s republics” that Russia says it is helping to free from Ukrainian control.

The leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, said on Wednesday that offensive operations were intensifying.

“We are well aware that the longer it takes us to liberate our territory, those settlements that are now under control of Ukraine, the more victims and destruction there will be,” he said.

Donetsk includes the besieged port city of Mariupol, which has seen some of the war’s heaviest fighting and bombardment and where about 170,000 people are trapped with scarce food and water.

Russian forces had taken half of the strategic port city, an adviser to Zelenskiy said on Wednesday. 

Russia’s defence ministry said it was prepared to observe a ceasefire in Mariupol on Thursday. 

Kyiv has accused Russia of not fully respecting earlier such commitments. 

Russia says it is carrying out a “special operation” to disarm and “denazify” its neighbour. Western countries say Moscow’s invasion was entirely unprovoked.

The fate of Donbas, which Russia demands Ukraine cede to the separatists, was a topic of discussion at peace talks held on Tuesday at an Istanbul palace. 

A senior Ukrainian negotiator said the talks would resume online on Friday.

Ukraine has sought a ceasefire without compromising on territory or sovereignty, though it has proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees. 

Russia opposes Ukraine joining the US-led NATO military alliance, and has cited its potential membership as a reason for the invasion.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia as punishment for its invasion have largely isolated its economy, but Moscow is still the biggest supplier of oil and gas to Europe.

Seeking to exert its leverage, Russia demanded oil and gas payments be made in roubles, raising fears of energy shortages in Europe. Germany has warned of a possible emergency if Russia cuts supplies.

But a US official said global restrictions on exports to Russia had shut down a car maker, halted work on tanks and cut off a Russian computer maker’s access to circuits used in communications equipment.

“Necessity brought together this unprecedented collaboration on export controls and other measures that are having a meaningful impact on Putin’s war,” said Thea Kendler of the US Commerce Department.

Russia says the West has effectively declared economic war on Russia and so it will now turn eastwards, away from Europe to build a partnership with China.

The head of Britain’s GCHQ spy service said there were risks to both Russia and China in being too closely aligned.

“Some of their interests conflict; Russia could be squeezed out of the equation,” Jeremy Fleming said in a speech in Canberra.

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