UK work visa applications likely to spike over next three months, say leading economists

Work visa applications are set to spike in the first three months of the year as employers race to fill them out before new wage rules come into force, economists predicted on Monday.

From April, people must be earning at least £29,000 to bring a family member or partner from abroad to the UK.

The Government said that most foreign workers will need to earn at least £38,700 to qualify for a UK skilled worker visa eventually, although there will be exceptions for sectors with a shortage of workers, such as healthcare.

The current minimum wage is £18,600.

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, predicted that net migration will likely only "slow modestly" in 2024, to about 500,000 from around 650,000 people in 2023.

"A resurgence in immigration over the past year or so has helped to drive a recovery in the workforce, attenuating the upward pressure on wages," she said.

"Net migration likely will drop back from the spring, following the tightening in Government policy, but a rush of activity before the deadline should spur a further increase in labour supply in the near term."

She added: "Prior to the recent policy changes, we had expected the flow of non-EU nationals arriving to work in the UK to edge down only marginally in 2024. "Many businesses likely will seek to bring in overseas staff before the rules and fees change, while many existing visa holders probably will now rush to bring over their dependants.

"Accordingly, net migration likely will slow only modestly in 2024, perhaps to about 500,000, from around 650,000 in 2023.

"That would still be high by past standards, and would support a further increase in the unemployment rate, if overall labour demand remains relatively flat."

A package of measures designed to lower net migration were unveiled last month, after figures showed it hit record levels last year.

Official estimate data shows net migration - the difference between the number of people coming to and leaving the UK - rose to 745,000 in 2022.

New rules for international students came into force at the beginning of the year.

Those starting courses from this month are not able to bring dependants to Britain unless they are on postgraduate research or Government-funded scholarship courses.

The number of student visas issued to dependants last year was 136,000 - an eight-fold increase from 2019, when it stood at 16,000.