The UK population is set to soar by nearly 5 million over the course of a decade, almost entirely because of net migration, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The population is projected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, up from 67.6 million in mid-2022, piling more pressure on the government to curb the number of people coming to the UK.
The figures also project that the number of over-85s will double to 3.3 million over the next two decades, with campaigners warning that the social care sector is “nowhere near ready” for the demands such an increase will put on the system.
It comes amid ongoing concern about the public finances, with further spending cuts expected to be on the way as rises in borrowing costs threaten chancellor Rachel Reeves’s economic plans.
Responding to the projected population growth, the Tories called for a binding legal cap on the number of visas issued each year, with shadow home secretary Chris Philp saying that the “shocking and unacceptable projection can and must be stopped from materialising”.
While Downing Street rejected Mr Philp’s call to bring in a legally binding cap, a spokesperson said the projections “underline the need to act to bring down net migration substantially”.
“The prime minister doesn’t think that setting an arbitrary cap [as] previous governments have done is the way forward,” the spokesperson said. “That’s why we’re putting in place the policies that will actually deliver that.”
The ONS expects the difference between the numbers of people arriving and leaving the country to total 4.9 million between 2022 and 2032. The estimates mean that the overall UK population is projected to rise by 7.3 per cent, compared with an increase of 6.1 per cent over the previous decade.
The data, published on Tuesday, assumes that the level of net migration will average 340,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage piled into the backlash, warning: “The population explosion is damaging the quality of life for everyone. Both Labour and the Tories are equally guilty.”
ONS projections estimate that by mid-2047, the number of those aged over 85 will have nearly doubled to 3.3 million, representing 4.3 per cent of the total UK population. This is an increase from 1.7 million in mid-2022, which amounted to 2.5 per cent of the population.
The figures add renewed urgency to the government’s plans to reform social care, after ministers admitted that major reforms – which will form part of their plans for a National Care Service – will not be delivered until 2028.
Ramzi Suleiman, policy and public affairs manager at the Carers Trust, said the sector is “already creaking at the seams”.
“There is huge unmet need, with less than half of older people with care needs getting the help they should,” he told The Independent. “Meanwhile, unpaid carers are having to fill the gaps by looking after family and friends at home.”
Alison Bennett, care spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, warned that the government’s “dither and delay on social care will only make matters worse”.
“These figures show in stark relief that the longer they ignore the crisis, the more social care costs will crush council budgets and lead to unnecessary suffering for individuals,” she said.
Green Party MP Ellie Chowns called for the government to “properly fund” social care, warning that older populations have been “left out in the cold by successive governments who have refused to get to grips with the social care crisis we face”.
She also hit back at those demanding a cap on net migration, warning that the care sector would “collapse tomorrow if it wasn’t for those moving to this country and providing the care our loved ones rely on”.
England’s overall population is projected to grow more quickly than that of the other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8 per cent compared with 5.9 per cent for Wales. In Scotland, the population will increase by 4.4 per cent over the same period, and it will grow by 2.1 per cent in Northern Ireland.
The ONS also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, during which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2 per cent.
James Robards, ONS head of population and household projections, said: “The UK population is projected to grow by almost 5 million over the next decade. The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero.
“These projections are based on current and past trends, and aren’t forecasts about what may or may not happen in the future.
“Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Costs of care are set to double in the next 20 years, and this will demand long-term action.
“The Casey commission will work to build a national consensus around a new National Care Service that is fair, affordable and able to meet the needs of older and disabled people into the 21st century.
“The first report is due in 2026 and the government is delivering urgent improvements to adult social care now, promoting better use of care technologies and professionalising the social care workforce.”
