Early evening summary
Boris Johnson had a 10-day break in February 2020 during which he appeared to receive no messages from his team at No 10 about coronavirus, the Covid inquiry heard today. The claim was made by Hugo Keith KC, counsel for the inquiry, and it was not denied by Martin Reynolds, Johnson’s principal private secretary at the time. (See 12.43pm.) Reynolds was giving evidence for most of the day and, although he seemed reluctant to criticise Johnson strongly, he did not say anything that countered the claim that Johnson was unduly complacent about the risk of Covid in January, February and early March 2020. Reynolds suggested that Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s former chief adviser, who is giving evidence tomorrow, was to blame for some of the dysfunctionality in No 10. (See 11.33am.) Reynolds also said he could not remember why he turned on the disappearing function for messages in a No 10 WhatsApp group shortly before the Covid inquiry was announced (see 11.08am) and, after being pressed repeatedly by Keith, he eventually admitted No 10 did not have a proper plan for Covid in place by early March 2020 (see 12.55pm). During the hearing private WhatsApp messages not previously published were disclosed confirming that Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, was driven to despair by Johnson’s dithering. (See 2.15pm and 3.05pm.) Imran Shafi, a more junior private secretary working for Johnson at the time, also gave evidence, and he said No 10 should have spent every day in February working on a detailed Covid plan. (See 3.58pm.) The inquiry heard that in March, shortly before the full lockdown was announced, in a meeting between Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the then chancellor, one of the participants asked what was the point of having an economy-destorying lockdown “for people who will die anyway soon”. Asked who had used the phrase, Shafi said he was not sure, but thought it had been Johnson. (See 4.35pm.)
Braveman describes pro-Palestinian demonstrations as 'hate marches'
Suella Braverman, the home secretary, has said that she views the pro-Palestinian demonstrations that have taken place in London since the Israel-Hamas war started as “hate marches”. She used the phrase in an interview with ITV News.
'To my mind there is only one way to describe those marches: they are hate marches'@SuellaBraverman labels the huge pro-Palestinian rallies which have taken place in London as 'hate marches' pic.twitter.com/08QfGmZ8L5
— ITV News Politics (@ITVNewsPolitics) October 30, 2023
Tory MP Paul Bristow sacked as government parliamentary aide for calling for ceasefire in Gaza
deTory MP Paul Bristow has been sacked from his government job after breaking ranks to publicly urge Rishi Sunak to push for a “permanent ceasefire” in Gaza, PA Media reports. PA says:
Bristow, a parliamentary private secretatary at the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, had written to the prime minister saying it would save lives.
He has said that Palestinian civilians are facing a “collective punishment” as a result of Israel’s siege and airstrikes campaign in the wake of Hamas’s bloodshed.
Downing Street said that the MP for Peterborough has been asked to leave his job as a parliamentary private secretary for breaking rank.
A No 10 spokesperson said: “Paul Bristow has been asked to leave his post in government following comments that were not consistent with the principles of collective responsibility.”
Much has been made of the splits in Labour over Sir Keir Starmer’s position on the conflict between Israel and Gaza but the sacking is evidence of Tory divisions too.
Bristow’s letter, dated Thursday, appears to have been deleted from his website but remains on Facebook.
He wrote that he was “deeply [moved] by the heart-breaking and devastating humanitarian crisis” unfolding in Gaza, having spoken with constituents and meeting with the Peterborough Joint Mosques Council.
The MP said he welcomed Sunak calling for what he has termed “specific pauses” in the fighting to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, home to more than two million people.
But Bristow added: “A permanent ceasefire would save lives and allow for a continued column of humanitarian aid [to] reach the people who need it the most.”
Updated
Anna Morris, counsel for the Covid Bereaved Families for Justice, asks about a note in Shafi’s notebook saying:
Trade off -> short sharp peak good [for the] economy
long peak good for health system
Shafi says he cannot remember who said that. He was just summarising a view expressed in a meeting.
Morris puts it to him that this suggests a binary choice, and that in fact what was good for health might be good for the economy too.
Shafi says that increasingly people did think like that.
And that’s the end of today’s session.
Chris Whitty referred to 'Eat out to help out' as 'Eat out to help out the virus', inquiry told
Hugo Keith KC said that at one point in his notebook Imran Shafi referred to the “Eat out to help out” scheme as “Eat out to help out the virus”.
This was the Treasury scheme subsidising meals out in August 2020. Rishi Sunak launched the scheme to boost the hospitality industry, but subsequent evidence showed that it encouraged the spread of the virus.
Keith asked if it was Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, who used the term. Shafi confirmed that was correct.
Updated
Heather Hallett, the chair, calls a short break. She says they will definitely finish today by 5.10pm.
'Why are we destroying economy for people who will die anyway soon?' - how Johnson is said to have argued against lockdown
Keith says Johnson held meetings or talks with Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, on 19 and 20 March. He shows Shafi an extract from his notebook with an account of one of these meetings. It says:
“We’re killing the patient to tackle the tumour”
Large ppl [numbers of people] who will die – why are we destroying economy for people who will die anyway soon
Keith asks who said those words.
Shafi says he is not sure, but he thinks it was Johnson.
Note from meeting between Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak in March 2020
— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) October 30, 2023
“We are killing the patient to tackle the tumour”
Next line: Why are we destroying the economy for people who are going to die anyway?
https://t.co/eJ5ttQJFWx pic.twitter.com/VGax1GUjxd
Updated
Keith asks Shafi to confirm that Boris Johnson actively resisted ordering a lockdown.
Shafi says Johnson did not want a lockdown.
Q: He thought the stay-at-home order on 16 March would suffice?
Shafi says that was the advice Johnson was getting. But it assumed the 16 March advice would be properly followed. It became clear that that was not the case.
Johnson was worried about the negative impact of a lockdown, Shafi says.
Updated
Keith says a government paper from 9 March 2020 showed that the NHS would be overwhelmed by Covid cases on current projections.
Q; Was any more information needed to justify raising the alarm?
No, says Shafi.
Q: But did the government pull the alarm cord?
No, says Shafi.
He says that, as a relatively junior official, it was difficult for him to challenge government strategy.
Updated
Johnson argued in late February biggest danger from Covid was risk of overreaction, inquiry told
Keith says Shafi kept contemporaneous notes. At the hearing he shows a page from the notebook, dated 28 February. In a note of what the PM said, Shafi wrote “biggest damage done by overreaction”.
Keith is now showing a note that was shown to Boris Johnson, dated 28 February, saying Covid was “increasingly likely to become a global pandemic”. It also said that based on existing assumptions for a severe flu pandemic, up to 520,000 people could die in a reasonable worst case scenario.
Q: In the light of this warning, how reasonable was it to stress the need not to over-react (Boris Johnson’s earlier view – see 2.49pm)?
Shafi says that approach looked a lot less valid by 28 February.
Keith says in late February Shafi wrote an email saying he wanted to expose the PM to the decisions he might have to take.
Q: At that point, had the government taken insufficient precautions?
Shafi says he did not know that at that point. He did not know how much work had been done elsewhere. It was when they asked about the planning, and found how little work had been done, that they realised there was a problem.
Keith asks about the period in mid-February when Johnson was not getting emails or notes about Covid. See 12.43pm.
Shafi says Johnson was on leave for some of this period.
Q: Do you accept that the lack of communication with the PM at this point was unfortunate?
Shafi says he does not know what conversations Johnson was having with other people at this point.
With hindsight, they should have spent every day in February preparing for Covid, he says.
UPDATE: Keith said:
Do you accept that, given that this was a crisis or we were on the edge of a crisis concerning a fatal viral pandemic, that the lack of communication with the prime minister for those 10 days, a bare month before the lockdown, was in hindsight rather unfortunate?
And Shafi replied:
I don’t know what conversations he had with other people, I think that’s something you’d need to ask him. I think, in hindsight, I think it’s unfortunate that we didn’t spend every day in February focused on all the detailed operational plans.
Updated
'Alarm bells should have been ringing' about Covid by late February, inquiry told
Keith asks about a Cobra meeting on 26 February. At this meeting, Prof Sir Jonathan Van-Tam said sustained person-to-person transmission was happening in Italy, from which many people travelled to the UK.
At that meeting 800,000 excess deaths was the reasonable worst-case scenario.
Keith says by this point (26 February) all the dots were joined up. It should have been clear it was coming to the UK.
Shafi says at that point there was still some uncertainty about whether the pandemic would hit the UK. But he says “the alarm bells should have been ringing”.
Keith makes it clear that he is not blaming Shafi for the delay. He is saying Shafi personally was pressing for action.
It was another two and a half weeks from 26 February before Johnson ordered people to stay at home (on 16 March) and three and a half weeks before the full lockdown was ordered (on 23 March).
Updated
The hearing has resumed.
Imran Shafi, Boris Johnson’s private secretary for public services, says that if No 10 had felt that suppression was a viable strategy at the start, more emphasis might have been put on test and trace.
Hugo Keith KC says test and trace is not necessary for flu, because people show symptoms, making it unnecessary. But with Covid it is necessary, because some people are asymptomatic.
Shafi says it would not have been possible to scale up test-and-trace capacity in time.
In the hearing Keith is asking Shafi about the strategy for dealing with Covid in February and early March 2020, before it started to peak.
Q: Why was all the focus on delaying the peak, and not on stopping the virus getting into the UK?
Shafi says he thinks that at that point there was not sufficient awareness of how much it would overwhelm the NHS.
They have now stopped for a break until 3.30pm.
Simon Case said Johnson was making government 'impossible' during Covid because he 'changes direction every day'
The New Statesman’s Rachel Wearmouth has posted on X a screengrab of some of the WhatsApp messages from Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, sent to Dominic Cummings, the PM’s then chief adviser, in autumn 2020. These were shown at the hearing a little earlier. (See 2.15pm.) Case says that at that point Johnson just wanted to let Covid rip. Case said Johnson was making government “impossible” because he “changes strategic direction every day”.
A WhatsApps between Cabinet Secretary Simon Case & Boris Johnson's ex-adviser Dominic Cummings, & other messages between Case and former comms chief Lee Cain
— Rachel Wearmouth (@REWearmouth) October 30, 2023
Suggests govt was in chaos during Covid pic.twitter.com/mpJhEvICy5
This is the complaint also made by Cummings, and it explains why Cummings calls Johnson the “trolley” – because he veers all over the place.
UPDATE: In this message Case says:
I am at the end of my tether. He changes strategic direction every day (Monday we were all about fear of virus returning as per Europe, March etc – today we’re in ‘let it rip’ mode cos (sic) the UK is pathetic, needs a cold shower etc.) He cannot lead and we cannot support him in leading with this approach. The team captain cannot change the call on the big plays every day. The team can’t deliver anything under these circumstances. A weak team (as we have got – Hancock, Williamson, Dido, No10/CO, Perm Secs), definitely cannot succeed in these circs (sic). IT HAS TO STOP! Decide and set direction – deliver – explain. Gov’t isn’t actually that hard but this guy is really making it impossible.
Updated
Johnson did not think Covid was 'big deal' in early February 2020, inquiry told
Q: Would you agree there was a high degree of dysfunctionality in dealing with the PM?
Yes, says Shafi.
Q: When Covid starting to become a global concern, did Johnson suggest it was not a big deal?
Shafi replies:
I don’t think he thought it was a big deal at that time.
Shafi says Johnson had a briefing with the chief medical officer on 4 February. He repeatedly stressed afterwards the need to avoid over-reaction.
Updated
Imran Shafi, Johnson’s private secretary for public services, is now giving evidence.
Keith says WhatsApp messages between Shafi and Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, were only given to the inquiry last week.
He quotes from Case saying in these exchanges that the exchange of information with the PM was not working well. Case described the system as “a bit of a farce”.
Shafi says this was a reference to how questions were being addressed to private secretaries.
Q: What did you feel about the way so much communication was via WhatsApp?
Shafi says, with lots of people working from home, using WhatsApp made sense.
But he says people who were not involved in policy were getting involved in these WhatsApp discussions.
He says there are long-term lessons to be learned about the use of WhatsApp.
Updated
Reynolds says he is 'deeply sorry' for organising lockdown-busting BYOB drinks do in No 10 garden for staff
Keith asks about the “bring your own booze” event in the No 10 garden in May 2020 that Reynolds organised for No 10 staff. He puts it to him that this was deeply damaging to trust in government.
Reynolds says he is “deeply sorry” for his part in those events and says he would like to apologise unreservedly for what happened. He was “totally wrong” to invite people to the event, he says.
I would first like to say how deeply sorry I am for my part in those events and for the email message, which went out that day.
And I would like to apologise unreservedly to all the families of all those who suffered during Covid for all the distress caused.
But he says news of the event only came out 15 months later, and so that limited the damage to trust in government.
It actually broke into the news about 15 months later. So while I totally accept … I was totally wrong in the way I sent the email around and for the event, I think the impact on public confidence – although obviously now in terms of public confidence, more generally it did have a serious impact – in terms of the pandemic at that time it was less, it had less impact.
Keith says there was another event in June.
Reynolds apologises for that too.
Updated
Vallance complained No 10 aides tried to 'strong-arm' him into doing press conference at time of Barnard Castle row
Keith is now asking about Dominic Cummings’ breach, or alleged breach, of lockdown rules and the Barnard Castle affair.
He shows an exchange of messages between Reynolds and Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary at the time. On 24 May Sedwill said: “People are genuinely angry. This isn’t just a bubble story.”
Keith also shows an extract from Sir Patrick Vallance’s diary from 25 May. Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said Reynolds strong-armed him and Prof Chris Whitty into appearing at the press conference that day. They did not want to appear that day because the questions about Cummings were bound to be political.
Reynolds says he did not think he was “strong-arming” Vallance and Whitty. He says they were capable of saying no to him.
UPDATE: In one extract from his diary for 25 May 2020 shown to the hearing, Sir Patrick Vallance said:
CW [Chris Whitty] and I very reluctant to do the press conference. It is highly political and will be focussed on DC [Cummings]. PM seems very bullish and wants to have everything released sooner and more extremely than we would. Wants to divert from the DC fiasco (caught have gone to Durham – clearly against the rules). All very worrying. Cabinet all upbeat and ‘breezy confidence’ – incredibly alarming. ‘Al fresco shopping all like a wonderful Middle East souk’… It was another rambling opening to cabinet. Quite extraordinary. Did say not there yet on on outside hospitality.
And in another extract from his diary for 25 May 2020 shown at the hearing, Vallance said:
Chris and I not at all keen to do the press conference. All highly political and dwarfed by DC. We tried to get out of it by suggesting that it was not the right day to announce new measures, and that this will undermine our credibility. No luck – Simon Case had a go but to no avail…We both went in but then spoke to Stuart G who spoke to PM. We interrupted listening to DC’s rambling and car crash conference to speak to PM. He got immediately that this was too political for us and that it put us in an awkward position. The apparatchiks tried to strong arm us (Lee, James and even Martin his PPS). DC came back from his press conference and said “you two shouldn’t be involved” – we got out! Yvonne Doyle did it – just did study and then all over to PM.
Updated
Because the hearing with Martin Reynolds has overrun, the session with Lee Cain has been postponed until tomorrow, the BBC’s Hugh Pym reports.
COVID inquiry questioning of Martin Reynolds continuing - former principal private secretary to Boris Johnson - so Lee Cain postponed till tomorrow.
— Hugh Pym (@BBCHughPym) October 30, 2023
Updated
Internal report revealed 'dysfunctionality, lack of discipline, chaos, and misogyny' in Covid decision making, inquiry told
Keith says Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary at the time, wrote a report in May 2020 proposing a different structure to deal with Covid. He says the report described “dysfunctionality, lack of discipline, chaos, and a significant degree of misogyny” in how meetings were run and decisions were taking place.
Updated
Cabinet secretary Simon Case described Johnson's approach as 'Trump-Bolsonaro-level mad and dangerous', inquiry told
The Covid inquiry has resumed for the afternoon.
Hugo Keith KC starts by asking about WhatsApp messages showing that Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, said in July 2020 that Boris Johnson was advocating an approach that would be “Trump-Bolsonaro-level mad and dangerous”. At the time Johnson was pressing to lift lockdown restrictions quickly.
Martin Reynolds says, as he argued before lunch, that Johnson blew hot and cold.
Keith quotes from further exchanges, when in October 2020 Case said Johnson’s behaviour was making the UK look like “a terrible, tragic joke”.
And he quotes from messages not previously seen in which Johnson is described as “not exactly a consistent interlocutor” and “weak and indecisive”.
Updated
More than 60 Just Stop Oil protesters have been arrested after the activist group carried out a demonstration in Westminster this morning, PA Media reports. PA says:
Demonstrators laid down and sat on the floor of every corner of Parliament Square after marching around the central London road in orange hi-vis jackets.
Many of the protesters were then placed into handcuffs by police after refusing to move off the floor.
The Metropolitan police posted on social media: “Officers have arrested 62 Just Stop Oil activists who were in the road in Parliament Square.”
They added that officers had arrived “within four minutes of receiving the initial report”.
The police force said the arrests were made under section seven of the Public Order Act.
Officers can make arrests under section seven if a protester “disproportionately interferes with road transport infrastructure”. The Metropolitan police said its officers would take into account “a person’s right to protest” before making an arrest.
Updated
At the No 10 lobby briefing this morning, in response to the evidence heard at the Covid inquiry, the PM’s spokesperson was asked if ministers and officials were still allowed to use the disappearing function on WhatsApp. The spokesperson replied:
There are rules set out for this already that were updated in the guidance from March that says the use of disappearing messages is permitted as civil servants and ministerial private offices are required to record and log official decisions and views for the record, where it is relevant and appropriate.
Updated
Reynolds confirms Johnson 'blew hot and cold' as he dithered over whether to announce lockdown
Keith puts it to Reynolds again that Johnson kept changing his mind. He says sometimes he wanted to be like the mayor in the films Jaws, keeping the beaches open while there was a shark danger (ie, opposing lockdown), and sometimes he took the opposite view.
Reynolds says “it’s fair to say that the prime minister did, as it were, blow hot and cold”. But he says these were very difficult issues.
The hearing has now stopped for lunch. Keith tells the chair he will need a bit more time after 2pm to finish questioning Reynolds. They are running late. Imran Shafi, Johnson’s private secretary for public services, was due to have given evidence before lunch, and Lee Cain, Johnson’s director of communications, had been due to start at 2pm.
Reynolds says he does not know why Johnson held private meeting with Lord Lebedev as Covid crisis erupting
Keith says on Friday 13 March Dominic Cummings and others held a meeting where they expressed alarm about what might happen. Reynolds says he was there for part of it.
Keith says that the following week, before the full lockdown was announced, Johnson oscillated between backing a lockdown and not backing one, according to some accounts.
Keith says Johnson held a meeting with Lord Lebedev, the Evening Standard owner, that week. He asks what it was about.
Reynolds says he was not there. He says political advisers attended, and he says he would not normally ask what was discussed at a political meeting.
Q: Did you ask him why he was holding the meeting when he had more urgent matters to deal with?
Reynolds says he cannot recall if he said that or not. But ultimately it was for the PM to decide, he says.
UPDATE: At the hearing Keith presented extracts from Johnson’s diary. They showed that on Wednesday 18 March Johnson had a call with Lebedev lasting 25 minutes (from 7.42pm to 8.07pm). And the next day they had a meeting lasting 41 minutes (from 5.56pm to 6.37pm). Ben Gascoigne, Johnson’s deputy chief secretary, and Lee Cain, the director of communications, also attended.
The meeting was almost certainly about Lebedev’s peerage. Johnson nominated Lebedev for a seat in the Lords, but initially the House of Lords Appointments Commission, which vets appointments, raised concerns about the proposal. Lebedev’s father is a former KGB agent.
Updated
Reynolds accepts No 10 did not have proper plan in place to deal with Covid pandemic in early March 2020
Keith asks Reynolds to confirm that in early March No 10 did not have plans to deal with a Covid pandemic.
Reynolds says he is not expert enough to say what plans were there, but structures were in place.
Q: But there was no proper plan in place?
After being pressed on this forcefully, Reynolds accepts this.
UPDATE: Here is how the key exchange went.
Keith asked:
The reality at the beginning of March after four or five weeks of warnings was it became apparent that there was no plan in the form of the NHS or the GHSE for dealing with a coronavirus pandemic, yes or no?
Reynolds replied:
I think the plan wasn’t sophisticated enough to deal with the crisis it was facing, I don’t think I can answer whether there was no plan.
Keith continued:
There was no plan for coronavirus, was there, Mr Reynolds? You know there wasn’t.
You know as a matter of strategy there had never been any debate about coronavirus – the United Kingdom’s strategy was based expressly on a pandemic influenza. Do you agree there was no plan for coronavirus?
Reynolds replied:
I’m not sufficiently expert to say whether the plans which were pre-existing were replicable for the nature of the crisis … and to what extent.
Keith went on:
In Number 10, there was an appreciation at the beginning of March that there were no plans to bring together activities of the other government departments, yes or no?
Reynolds responded:
We had the existing structures and they were inadequate for what we were dealing with …
Keith interrupted:
Did you have plans to deal with the crisis which had broken upon the United Kingdom government in the first week in March?”
And Reynolds replied:
As I say, there is a standard set of protocols, which is Cabinet Office protocols for dealing with crisis – where I agree with you is they were inadequate to deal with the nature of the crisis we were confronted with.
Updated
Johnson wanted to avoid 'sense of panic', says Reynolds, when asked if it was true PM viewed Covid as no big deal
Keith asks Reynolds if Johnson ever said that Covid was not a big deal, that it would be like swine flu, and that the biggest danger was talking the economy into a slump.
(Many accounts, including from people like Dominic Cummings, say this is exactly what Johnson thought at this point.)
Reynolds says he cannot remember that. But he does think Johnson thought that “if we reacted in certain ways, we could generate a sense of panic and concern that could be counterproductive”.
Reynolds says he cannot recall why Johnson received no Covid updates for 10 days as global crisis worsening
Keith says there was a 10-day period, between 14 February 2020 and 24 February, when Johnson was getting no messages about Covid.
Reynolds says he cannot recall why.
Q: Was it half-term?
Reynolds says Keith may know more than him.
Q: Did you ask why the PM was not being kept in the loop?
Reynolds says he probably should have kept him informed.
Keith goes on:
Before the end of half-term SPI-M [the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling – an expert committee] had confirmed sustained transmission, Sage had noted the Public Health England could only cope with five Coronavirus cases per week. And of course, the United Kingdom became aware of lockdowns in 10 municipalities in Italy.
Keith asks how Reynolds reacted.
Reynolds says he was very concerned. He asked how the UK might respond in similar circumstances.
Q: “Did you say we have a major problem now, we’ve got to get in touch with the prime minister, we must raise the issue of whether or not there are urgent steps we’re required to take straight away?”
Reynolds says he did not.
Keith quotes from a message sent on 27 February saying the PM needed a briefing on Covid.
Q: Why had you not already asked him to step up action on Covid?
Reynolds says the PM would have been getting information from other people.
Q: Did the PM think this was a big deal?
Yes, says Reynolds. He says the PM offered to do more whenever he was asked about this.
Updated
Keith shows another email, from 8 February 2020.
Q: At this point, did you think enough attention was being paid to the risks to the UK?
Reynolds says he was copied into all messages going to the PM at this point.
He says his response depended on whether he was confident that the other private secretaries sending these emails were on top of the issue.
In this case, Imran Shafi, the PM’s private secretary for public services, was in charge. Reynolds suggests that he was confident that, if Shafi thought more needed to be done, he would have said so.
Q: What could have been more important than a fatal viral pandemic?
Reynolds says his job was to ensure Johnson was getting a good service from the other private secretaries. With the benefit of hindsight, he should have focused more on this. But he says he was managing a process where other experts were doing the detailed work.
Keith says cabinet discussed Covid on 14 February. And on 25 February Shafi said he wanted to expose the PM to decisions he might have to take. He says this email exchange talked about the risk of a pandemic.
Q: When you saw this, why did you not start considering what practical steps might be taken to stop the virus?
Reynolds says he would have taken reassurance from the fact that work was under way. The PM was briefed the following day. But he was not second guessing the experts, he says.
Updated
Keith shows an email sent by Reynolds on 31 January 2020 discussing this.
Reynolds says he was aware of the issue. But he says he was not giving strong advice.
Keith shows minutes from the meeting. At the meeting someone said there was a 10% risk of the reasonable worst case scenario happening.
Reynolds says he cannot recall this.
Keith shows an email telling the PM about the outcome of the meeting.
And he shows a separate email, dated 30 January, giving the PM an update. It focuses on the evacuation of UK nationals from China.
Reynolds says this note was from the foreign affairs private secretary. That is why the focus was on China.
Q: Did you not feel it was you job to educate yourself on the issues and take part in this debate?
Reynolds says it was not self-evident to him that having the health secretary chair the meeting was wrong.
Keith says he was not saying it was wrong for Hancock to chair the meeting. He asks why Reynolds was not getting more information himself.
Reynolds says, looking at the email exchange, he cannot tell what questions he was asking.
The hearing is resuming.
Hugo Keith KC, the counsel for the inquiry, starts by referring to a message on 23 January 2020 saying two people were admitted to hospital with Covid in January. A Cobra meeting was proposed. But Boris Johnson did not chair it.
Q: Can you remember why Johnson did not chair it?
No, says Martin Reynolds, Johnson’s principal private secretary at the time.
Reynolds says he may have just asked if Johnson was happy for Matt Hancock, the health secretary, to chair it.
Q: There was a risk a viral pandemic was reaching the UK. You discussed having a Cobra meeting with the PM. Did you know how serious the problem was outside the UK?
Reynolds says he was aware of some elements of this. But the Cabinet Office would normally give a steer as to what was needed, he says.
He says in circumstances like this he may have talked to the political advisers.
But he says it is not unusual for another cabinet minister to chair Cobra in a situation like this.
He says, on this occasion, he thinks he was just passing on the suggestion for Hancock to chair the meeting.
Q: Did you consider all the risks?
Reynolds says there were other people in government tracking these issues.
Updated
Reynolds says the Cabinet Office machine was not properly prepared to deal with the crisis it was about to face as the pandemic was striking.
This was not just a crisis for one department, or some departments. It was a whole-of-government crisis, he says. And he says the Cabinet Office was not prepared for that.
The inquiry is now taking a break until noon.
Keith says Helen MacNamara, the former deputy cabinet secretary, has said in her witness statement that the PM was not getting proper advice because the wrong people were in the room. Do you agree?
Reynolds says at times that was the case.
Reynolds says Cabinet Office failed to get on top of Covid crisis
Keith puts it to Reynolds that the Cabinet Office was incapable of responding well to the crisis.
Reynolds says the Cabinet Office faced “organisational challenges”. But the main problem is that it did not have the capacity to move from the planning phase to the operational phase of response, he says.
Q: That means it failed to do what it was required to do, doesn’t it?
Reynolds says plans were not in place at a departmental level. He agrees that at the Cabinet Office sufficient plans were not in place.
Q: Other departments failed in other ways. But the Cabinet Office is there to operate the crisis machinery. It failed to get on top of this problem, didn’t it?
Reynolds replies: “Correct.”
Updated
No 10 distracted as pandemic started by Cummings-related tensions, including 'shitlist' of staff facing sack, inquiry hears
Q: To what extent was the problem Boris Johnson’s lack of experience? And to what extent was there a structural problem in No 10?
Reynolds says there was a big change after the election. Before the election, the focus was on Brexit. After the election, and after Brexit happened, there was a “turning of the page”. There was a sense the government had a five- or 10-year programme ahead. He recalls going to a meeting in Chequers where decisions were being taken for the long term.
He says in No 10 they were getting used to a “slightly divergent politics”, because Boris Johnson’s priorities and Dominic Cummings’ were not the same.
There was also an “unease” with some of the messaging and actions taking place.
This was when Cummings was talking about bringing in “weirdos and misfits” to work in No 10.
And there was unease in the civil service about the “shitlist” of people whose jobs were thought to be at risk.
There was, I think, quite a bit of unease in the civil service around, and excuse my language, the so-called shitlist of people who were thought to be risks in what was perceived to be a potentially more muscular approach to the civil service.
This all meant among senior people a lot of energy and attention was focused elsewhere.
Q: Was the tension with Cummings a problem in January and February 2020?
Reynolds says in many ways Cummings was the most empowered chief of staff he had seen in No 10. But the PM did not work exclusively on the basis of advice from Cummings. He liked “a multiplicity of different arguments and advice” from which he could choose. He say Ed Lister, another adviser, was also very important at that time.
Reynolds says Cummings was not always pursuing the same policy as the PM. HS2 was a good example. (Cummings wanted to scrap it, but Johnson was in favour.)
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Reynolds says 'with benefit of hindsight' he accepts No 10 not doing enough to prepare for Covid in February 2020
Q: Dominic Cummings says in February and March 2020 there was an optimism bias in place, and an assumption that Covid would be like swine flu.
Reynolds says Boris Johnson is instinctively optimistic. And he also thinks that, as a leader, it is his job to show confidence.
In terms of the prime minister’s perspective, I think he is instinctively optimistic, but I also think that he instinctively believes that as a leader it’s important to project confidence and ability to deal with things.
But he says the view that preparations were in place was one shared across the top of government.
Q: But the key word is bias. Cummings is suggesting this optimism was not justified by the facts.
Reynolds says that is something for the inquiry to decide.
Q: As Johnson’s PPS, you must have a view as to whether that was right.
Reynolds says a note from February 2020 implied “the system was gripping the challenge in the appropriate way”.
Two or three weeks later the government was planning fundamental changes, he says.
He goes on:
With the benefit of hindsight, it does appear that we should have been far more vigorously testing our arrangements for what was coming, and that would arguably have made a big difference when the crisis hit.
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Q: Dominic Cummings says you were too deferential to Boris Johnson?
Reynolds says he gave Johnson very clear advice when he felt it was appropriate.
I think on a number of occasions, where I felt it was necessary and I needed to step in, I gave the prime minster very clear advice when I disagreed with him, but those were on issues where I felt it was my role as the principal private secretary to step in and give that advice.
He says he can cite some examples.
Q: But those occasions were in relation to organisational arrangements?
Reynolds confirms that.
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Reynolds cannot recall why disappearing function activated for No 10 WhatsApp messages before Covid inquiry announced
Keith says in April 2021, shortly before the PM announced a public inquiry, Reynolds turned on the disappearing messages function on this WhatsApp group. He asks why.
Reynolds says he cannot say. He can only speculate. He says he kept all his relevant WhatsApp messages. He says it might have been because he was worried about someone screenshoting his messages and leaking them.
He claims the WhatsApp messages were based on paperwork that was available elsewhere, and so it should be available to the inquiry, he says.
UPDATE: Asked why he had turned the function on, Reynolds said:
I can guess or I can speculate, but I cannot recall exactly why I did so.
This WhatsApp group was very different from any other WhatsApp group on my phone, in that it was essentially funnelling information into the prime minister and out, and all of that was recorded separately in hard copy or in email form – including the prime minister’s comments.
So, that flow of information of updating him on developments was recorded properly on our systems.
I can speculate as to why I might have done it. As I said at the start, I have kept all my other WhatsApps for the relevant period and handed them over, so I don’t believe it was intended to prevent the inquiry from having sight of this.
It could, for example, have been because I was worried of someone screenshotting or using some of the exchanges and leaking them.
And here is a WhatsApp message shown to the inquiry referring to the disappearing function being activated. Adam Bienkov from Byline Times has posted a screenshot on X,
Two weeks before Boris Johnson announced the Covid Inquiry, his Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds turned on the disappearing messages function on his WhatsApp group with the Prime Minister and senior officials.
— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) October 30, 2023
Reynolds claims he "cannot recall" why he did so. pic.twitter.com/T5axWPmZbl
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Keith is now asking Reynolds about a WhatsApp group called “PM Updates”.
He says this group was important. He suggests it contains messages that were not available elsewhere.
Reynolds does not accept this. He says he was cut and pasting emails, and then sending them via WhatsApp. He says Boris Johnson liked to receive information in this way.
Keith shows some examples from this WhatsApp exchange. He suggests this material would not have been available in another form.
Reynolds refers to some of the items, and says they were cut and pasted from emails.
Q: But not all of them?
Reynolds says he would have to check.
Keith suggests all this material is directly relevant to how Covid was dealt with.
Reynolds accepts that.
Boris Johnson did not realise during pandemic his WhatsApp messages might later become public, Covid inquiry hears
Keith shows a WhatsApp message from Simon Case, the cabinet secretary. It is date 20 December 2021 and in it Case says:
PM is mad if he doesn’t think his WhatsApps will become public via Covid inquiry – but he was clearly not in the mood for that discussion tonight! We’ll have that battle in the new year.
The exchange shown on screen at the hearing also includes Reynolds’ reply. Reynolds said he agreed.
Asked what the battle was about, Reynolds told Keith he could not remember. But he said he thought Johnson had not realised his WhatsApp messages would become important during the Covid inquiry.
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Reynolds claims 'vast majority' of No 10 Covid WhatsApp messages were 'ephemeral', and not key to decision making
Hugo Keith KC is questioning Martin Reynolds.
He asks what the policy was for retaining emails in No 10.
Reynolds says “non-ephemeral emails” were retained.
But, because of the way the IT system works, he says he thinks he only saw emails he had sent.
Q: Dominic Cummings says in the spring of 2020 he asked No 10 to ensure emails were retained for a lessons learnt exercise.
Reynolds says he does not remember that. But he thinks emails were being retained.
Q: Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, says in March 2021 a policy was developed for retaining WhatsApp messages. Do you remember that?
Reynolds says he cannot remember the substance of that. But he thinks the policy was the same as for other material.
He says the use of WhatsApp increased a lot during this period.
But the “vast majority” of these WhatsApp exchanges were ephemeral, he says. They were they sort of exchange that might have taken place in a corridor.
Q: You are not suggesting these WhatsApp messages were irrelevant.
No, says Reynolds. He says they are relevant to the inquiry. But not necessarily to the decision-making process.
Heather Hallett asks why he says that.
Reynolds says the messages are relevant to the inquiry. But, in the decision-making process, ephemeral things are said outside the main meetings, he says.
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Heather Hallett, the chair, is opening the inquiry.
She says decisions about what evidence gets published is up to her.
(There have been complaints that only extracts from certain documents, like WhatsApp conversations and diaries, are being published.)
She says high-profile witnesses will start giving evidence in the coming days.
But she says she is asking those witnesses to respect her decisions about when material she be published, and not to disclose material early.
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Boris Johnson's former principal private secretary Martin Reynolds to give evidence to Covid inquiry
This week the Covid inquiry will, for the first time, take evidence from people who were among Boris Johnson’s inner circle during the coronavirus pandemic, and first up is Martin Reynolds. Reynolds was Johnson’s principal private secretary when Johnson was foreign secretary and Johnson clearly rated him, because he invited him to peform the same role for him in No 10. As Johnson’s PPS, he was the top civil servant advising him day by day, and hour by hour.
Reynolds is best known to the public as the person who sent out the invitations to a “party” in the No 10 garden during lockdown that was one of the most notorious Partygate events. The controversy contributed to Reynolds’ decision to resign his job in 2022.
The hearing is about to start.
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The Institute for Government report says one reason why public services in Britain are so poor is underinvestment. It says:
The UK has long invested less in its public services than other wealthy nations. Taking health as an example, since 1970 there have only been two years in which the UK did not spend below (often much below) the OECD average; today the NHS has half as many CT scanners per head of population as the OECD average. But even by these low standards, the decade before the pandemic saw particularly deep cuts to the capital spending of the departments overseeing the services covered in this report. The worst hit was the Ministry of Justice, where annual capital spending averaged less than half the real-terms spending in 2007/08.
Decades of underinvestment in capital has had a serious impact on the productivity of public services. Teachers, nurses, doctors and social workers find it much harder to do their jobs in crumbling and cramped buildings, when using old computers running out-of-date software or lacking the latest equipment. At times they cannot do their jobs at all: St Mary’s hospital, one of four major trauma hospitals in London, reports that it is often unable to use its outpatient department because it is frequently flooded with sewage. Across hospitals, schools, criminal courts, prisons and the road network the maintenance backlog now totals £37bn.
This chart highlights the extent of this problem.
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Public services will continue to get worse if next government sticks to current post-2025 spending plans, IfG report says
In its report on the performance of public services (see 9.24am) the Institute for Government thinktank also says they will continue to get worse if the next government sticks to the current spending plans for 2025 onwards – as the Tories and Labour are both currently saying they plan to do. The IfG says:
When it was first announced, the 2021 spending review looked generous, with spending rising more quickly over the course of its three years than any other spending review since 2004. But unexpectedly high inflation has eroded the real-terms value of that settlement. While additional funding has been provided to some services, the tightness of these spending plans means that most will not be able to return to prepandemic performance levels by the end of this spending review period in March 2025.
The situation after the end of the current spending review is worse still. The government’s spending plans from April 2025 onwards – which Labour has also committed to – are incredibly tight, with just 1% annual real-terms increases pencilled in. But taking account of government commitments on foreign aid and defence, and funding that would be required to deliver the NHS long-term workforce plan, the settlements for unprotected areas of public spending will be much less, averaging -1.2% per year in real terms. If these spending plans were implemented, then it is likely that all services covered in this report, other than children’s social care, would be performing worse in 2027/28 than on the eve of the pandemic.
This is how the government has responded to the report from the Institute for Government saying most public services are in a much worse state than they were in 2010. (See 9.24am.) A spokesperson said:
We are committed to backing our frontline services. We have invested record levels of funding in the NHS, as well as a further £14.1bn to cut wait times, and school funding is up by over £3.9bn this year, reaching the highest level in real terms per pupil in history.
As we continue to spend record levels on our public services continues to rise, to avoid tax increases for working people we must accelerate reform so that frontline workers can focus on what they do best – teaching our children, treating us when we’re sick and keeping us safe.
Sunak to chair meeting of Cobra emergency committee amid fears Israel-Hamas war could increase terror threat in UK
Rishi Sunak will chair an emergency Cobra meeting amid fears that the conflict between Hamas and Israel could have increased the domestic terror threat in Britain, PA Media reports. PA says:
The prime minister will assemble police and national security officials and home secretary Suella Braverman in Downing Street on Monday morning, Whitehall sources said.
Education minister Robert Halfon stressed before the meeting that the government has to ensure British citizens are “safe and secure from the threat of terrorism”.
He declined to say whether the terror threat level might be raised, which stands at “substantial” in England, Wales and Scotland, meaning an attack is likely.
It has stood at that level since February last year when it was lowered from “severe”, meaning the threat is highly likely.
Most public services much worse now than when Tories took office in 2010, IfG thinktank report says
Good morning. Any plan Rishi Sunak has to win the next general election has to deal with the Conservative party’s record in office, which is something of a handicap. Today’s non-Israel-Gaza political news is likely to focus on the Covid inquiry hearing, which could shed fresh light on how dysfunctional No 10 was under Boris Johnson in the early days of the pandemic. But Covid is very far from being the worst indictment on the government’s record (not least because the vaccine rollout is widely regarded as a triumph). Today the Institute for Government thinktank has published its annual survey of how key public services are performing and, frankly, its conclusions are dire. It says almost all public services are worse than they were at the time of the last election, and most of them are much worse than they were when the Conservatives took office in 2010.
Here is the chart that sums it up.
Here is an extract from the report.
All the services covered in this report, with the sole exception of schools, were performing worse on the eve of the pandemic than a decade earlier. The situation was particularly dire in prisons, hospitals, general practice and adult social care. But they are performing even worse now. The situation is most severe in criminal courts and hospitals.
The crown court backlog is at a record high, reaching 64,709 cases in June 2023, compared to just 40,826 in March 2020. However, accounting for the greater complexity of cases in the backlog, which now includes a disproportionate number of jury trials, the ‘true backlog’ is now equivalent to 89,937 cases.
Hospitals are doing substantially worse on all major performance metrics. The elective waiting list continues to grow, reaching 7.8m in August 2023, up from 4.6m on the eve of the pandemic. And in 2022/23, little over half of those attending A&E were admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours (56.7%), compared with more than three-quarters in 2019/20 (75.4%). This also compares unfavourably with a longstanding target of 95%, and even to a new target, announced in December 2022, of 76%.
Performance is worse in some services despite substantial spending and staffing increases. In hospitals there were approximately 13% more doctors and nurses in March 2023 as compared with March 2020, yet many areas of activity have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Adult social care has also seen substantial spending increases in recent years, but these have largely been eaten up by higher costs to provide the same level of service, meaning that there has been little progress in reducing unmet and under-met need.
And here is Rachel Hall’s news report.
Parliament is in recess before the king’s speech next week, and so there is not much on the agenda. Here is what is coming up.
10.30am: Martin Reynolds, Boris Johnson’s principal private secretary during the pandemic, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry. Later Imran Shafi, Johnson’s private secretary for public services, gives evidence.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Morning: Rishi Sunak is due to chair a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee to discuss the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on the terrorist threat in the UK.
2pm: Lee Cain, Johnson’s director of communications during the first phase of the pandemic, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry.
Also today Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, and Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, are due to speak at the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship conference in London. Prominent rightwing US Republicans are also speaking, including Mike Johnson, the new speaker of the House of Representatives. This is how Josiah Mortimer from Byline Times characterises the gathering.
The hard right are gathering today in London for the “Alliance for Responsible Citizenship” conference. It’s a rogues gallery of Tory cranks and culture war-mongers, backed by the duo behind GB News. Includes Jordan Peterson and new US House Speaker Mike Johnson, Politico reports
— Josiah Mortimer (@josiahmortimer) October 30, 2023
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