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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK politics: Labour’s Khan has 22-point lead over Tory rival in London mayoral race, poll suggests – as it happened

John Swinney Sadiq Khan London Kate Forbes United Kingdom European Union SNP Lucy Frazer Chris Bryant Luke Tryl
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan visiting a foundation in Brixton last week.
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan visiting a foundation in Brixton last week. Photograph: Nicola Tree

We are closing this blog now, thanks for following today’s developments. You can read all our UK politics coverage here.

Afternoon summary

  • Sadiq Khan is on course to win the London mayoral election with a 22-point lead, a poll suggests. (See 4.53pm.)

  • John Swinney and Kate Forbes have both confirmed that they are seriously considering standing for the SNP leadership, but without yet committing themselves to being candidates. Swinney remains the clear favourite, but Forbes has denied claims she is coming under pressure not to stand so that Swinney can take the post as a unity candidate. (See 3.56pm.) Swinney has the support of senior figures in the party including Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, health secretary Neil Gray and education secretary Jenny Gilruth.

Updated

Number of asylum seekers needing help for homelessness has quadrupled year on year, figures show

The number of asylum seekers needing help for homelessness in England after having been in supported accommodation has more than quadrupled in a year, PA Media reports. PA says:

Official figures published today showed the number owed what is known as a relief duty to be 4,150 as of the end of December 2023 – almost five times the 900 figure from the same point a year before.

The Local Government Association (LGA), which represents local councils, said the government’s plans to continue to close asylum hotels meant people were having to turn to councils for support instead.

Statistics on homelessness, published by the Department of Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, showed that the figure had more than doubled between the third and fourth quarters of last year.

There were 1,870 households in the period from July to September who were owed a relief duty from local authorities for help as they faced homelessness.

This rose to 4,150 for the period October to December.

A spokesperson for the LGA said a “better system for supporting asylum seekers to find permanent homes” was needed.

Updated

Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, seems to have voted with Labour by mistake in a division on the digital markets, competition and consumers bill. Labour’s Chris Bryant says she was backing a Labour move to crack down on ticket touts. She was the only Tory voting with Labour on this. The Conservatives voted against.

Brilliant, @lucyfrazermp just walked through the division lobby with Labour to support action on ticket touts against her whip. #SurelySomeMistake

The division list shows that Frazer also voted with the Conservatives. MPs can vote aye and no in a division. Normally they do this as a means of recording an abstention, but if Frazer voted the wrong way by mistake, she may have headed for the other lobby to compensate.

A reader asks:

The table you should show from More in Common is where has the 2019 conservative voters have gone. Not many to Labour, most to reform but a huge chunk, more than other parties to don’t know. Are they going to just sit at home or what?

Luckily, More in Common has a chart for that too. This is from its briefing for journalists ahead of the local elections. It suggests that, although don’t knows lean to the Tories a bit more than to Labour, mostly they probably won’t vote at all.

Watchdog tells Home Office not to ignore court ruling protecting EU citizens with post-Brexit right to stay in UK

A statutory body set up to guarantee EU citizens rights after Brexit has sharply criticised the Home Office for not fully implementing a ruling by the high court in 2022 designed to protect millions of people whose jobs and homes could be put at risk.

The court ruled that the Home Office was wrong to force people who had been in the country for fewer than five years before Brexit, with pre-settled status under the EU-UK withdrawal agreement, to apply again for full settled status once their current status expired.

The court ruled this was “wrong in law” and now the Independent Monitoring Authority says the Home Office is still not implementing the rule, but merely giving someone with pre-settled status an automatic extension of two years.

The IMA said the Home Office move “does not go for enough” and it is concerned that EU citizens with pre-settled status visible on their documents could risk their job or home.

In a statement Miranda Biddle, the IMA’s chief executive said:

It is crucial that in implementing the judgment the uncertainties being faced in relation to citizens’ ability to live, work and raise their families in the UK are addressed and concluded.

Labour's Sadiq Khan has 22-point lead over Tories' Susan Hall in London mayoral contest, poll suggests

Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London who is running for this third term in office on Thursday, has been arguing that he is at risk of losing to his Conservative opponent, the low-profile rightwinger Susan Hall. Last week he claimed the contest would be “a close two-horse race”. There are good reasons why he’s saying this; if voters think their candidate is going to win, they are less likely to turn out, and since 2021 the government has changed electoral rules in two ways (requiring photo ID for voting, and making the mayoral election a first past the post contest, not a supplementary vote one) that may disadvantage Labour. But that does not mean Khan is right.

According to the latest poll from YouGov, he isn’t. It’s not close at all. Khan is on course to win by a margin of more than 20 points, the poll suggests.

In his write-up for YouGov, Matthew Smith says Khan is on course to win handsomely even though almost half of Londoners think he is doing a bad job. Smith says:

While Sadiq Khan’s victory looks assured, he is nevertheless unpopular overall, with 46% having an unfavourable view of the mayor versus 38% a favourable one. Londoners are divided on his record to date, with 41% saying he has done a good job and 45% saying he has done a bad job.

John Swinney suggests plight of SNP, worse than in 2023, is leading him to revise his view he's too old to be leader

John Swinney, who is the favourite to be next SNP leader, has also been talking to the media at Holyrood today.

In terms of what he said about standing in the contest, he did not go much beyond what he said yesterday. He said that he was giving the question a great deal of thought, that he was considering what was best for his family, his party and his country, and that he was being urged to stand by people in the party.

But he did sound like someone who has already crafted an argument as to why he should be leader. When it was put to him that only last year he was saying the SNP needed a fresh face as leader (when he decided not to run in the contest to succeed Nicola Strugeon), Swinney replied:

Well, events change, don’t they? Nothing ever remains the same.

What’s changed is that my party finds itself in a very different and more difficult situation than it found itself in 12 months ago.

And I would not be doing a service to the many, many, many people who have contacted me asking me to stand up if I don’t think about this properly.

It wouldn’t be it wouldn’t be my style to ignore the representations that made to me. I’m someone who listens, who listens and addresses the points that are put to me, and that’s exactly what I’m doing just now.

The reporters who were listening told Swinney that it sounded as if he were running.

Updated

More in Common released some polling yesterday showing the Conservative party at just 24%, the lowest level it’s been for a year. It has Labour on 43%.

Forbes rejects claims she is being encouraged by SNP figures not to stand for leadership

Kate Forbes has also recorded a clip for broadcasters repeating the message that she gave the Daily Record – that she is considering standing for the party leadership, and that she has a groundswell of support amongst party members. (See 2.19pm.) This is from Kathryn Samson from Channel 4 News.

In the clip Forbes starts by saying she is “definitely weighing things up” (ie, deciding whether or not to run), and there is a pronounced emphasis on “definitely”.

Asked if she is coming under pressure not to run (from SNP figures who want John Swinney installed as a unity candidate), Forbes replies:

Not at all, no, I think, quite the contrary.

I’m very conscious that across the country, and in branches across Scotland, there are clearly people who have supported me last time and that would support me again.

Kevin Schofield from Huffpost UK claims that Forbes was telling people yesterday that she would not stand if John Swinney decides to put his name forward (which he has not done yet). Schofield thinks there has been a change of heart.

Kate Forbes was telling people yesterday that she would not go up against John Swinney in an SNP leadership contest.

This sounds like she may possibly have had a change of heart.

Record 145,800 children living in temporary accommodation, up 15% year on year, figures show

The number of children living in temporary accommodation has reached another record high, while people needing help for homelessness due to no-fault evictions has also reached a new peak, PA Media reports. PA says:

A major housing charity warned that a generation of young people are having their lives “blighted by homelessness”, while campaigners have repeated calls for long-promised rental reforms going through parliament to be strengthened in the face of a “spiralling crisis”.

There were 145,800 children in temporary accommodation as of the end of December last year, up by a fifth on 20 years ago when records for this measure began.

The figure is up 15% from 126,340 on the same period in 2022, the figures published by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) showed.

On December 31 last year, there were a total of 112,660 households in temporary accommodation in England, of which 71,280 were households with children.

The number of overall households in temporary accommodation rose by 12% from 100,510 at the same time in 2022, while the number of households with children increased by 15% from 61,980.

The total number of children living in temporary accommodation was 145,800 as of December 31, a rise of 15% from 126,340 on the same period in 2022.

A total of 317,430 households were assessed as being owed a prevention or relief duty in 2023, a rise of almost 9% on the previous year.

A prevention duty places a duty on housing authorities to work with people who are threatened with homelessness within 56 days to help prevent them from becoming homelessness, while a relief duty requires housing authorities to help people who are homeless to secure accommodation.

Last year, 25,910 people were assessed as needing help for homelessness due to having had a section 21 notice served on them – otherwise known as a no-fault eviction.

This is the highest number in the six years for which statistics are published on this measure in the data tables, and has led campaigners who have long pushed for a ban on such evictions to describe the government’s approach as “maddening”.

Commenting on the figures, Polly Neate, chief executive of Shelter, the housing charity, said:

The government cannot stand idly by while a generation of children have their lives blighted by homelessness.

Decades of failure to build enough genuinely affordable social homes has left families struggling to cobble together extortionate sums every month to keep a roof over their heads. Those who can’t afford private rents are being thrown into homelessness and then left for months and even years in damaging temporary accommodation because there is nowhere else.

With a general election approaching, it’s time for all politicians to show voters they are serious about ending the housing emergency. To dramatically reduce homelessness, we need every party to commit to building 90,000 social homes a year for ten years, and an overhaul of the renters (reform) bill so that it delivers genuine safety and security for private renters.

Starmer says Labour would scrap Tory 'shoplifter's charter' sentencing rules he claims are driving up crime

Keir Starmer has said that Labour would scrap Tory sentencing rules that he claims amount to a “shoplifter’s charter”.

He is making the pledge in a speech to a conference held by Usdaw, the union representing shopworkers.

Labour says Home Office figures show that almost 250,000 shoplifting cases were closed last year without a prosecution. It says that means shoplifters ‘got away scot-free’.

In extracts from the speech released in advance, Starmer says shoplifting is at “epidemic” levels and that it is wrong to dismiss it as petty crime.

Today I am putting shoplifters on notice. You might get away with this under a weak Tory government.

But if Labour takes power, we won’t stand by while crime takes over our streets ….

We’ll put 13,000 extra neighbourhood police on the beat, tackling crime on your streets.

We’ll scrap the shoplifter’s charter – the £200 rule that stops the police investigating theft in your workplace.

And we will legislate to make sure assaulting and abusing shopworkers is a standalone criminal offence.

Labour says it is entitled to accuse the government of introducing a shoplifter’s charter because the Antisocial Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act 2014 said that shoplifting offences involving goods worth less than £200 had to be tried as ‘summary only’ offences. That meant defendants could plead guilty by post, avoid a court appearance, and get away with a small fine, Labour says.

It says this rule led to the police deprioritising these offences.

In a briefing note, Labour says, by removing the £200 limit set by the 2014 Act, it will “make it easier to prioritise repeat and organised shoplifting whatever the level of any individual theft so it can be properly dealt with – while ensuring that non-court sanctions including pleading guilty by post are reserved for first-time offenders, rather than serious repeat criminals”.

Updated

Kate Forbes says she has 'groundswell of support' from SNP members who want her to stand for leader

Kate Forbes, who was runner-up in the SNP leadership contest last year, dodged questions from reporters about her intentions when she went past them in the lobby at the Scottish parliament a few minutes ago. Kathryn Samson from Channel 4 News has a clip.

But Forbes has spoken to the Daily Record. She told that that, while she was still considering whether or not to stand, she did think there was “a groundswell of support” for her amongst members.

I am obviously still weighing up all my options. I know there is a groundswell of support for me amongst the members. That was quite clear in the last contest, which I know you followed very closely.

Clearly I’ll be taking that into account and also trying to evaluate what is best for the country, for the party and for my family.

Asked when she would decide, she said it was “still early days”.

John Swinney, the former deputy first minister, is seen as the current favourite. He has not said he will stand, but many senior figures in the party are urging him to do so.

Aged 60, Swinney is an SNP veteran who led the party 20 years ago for a brief spell and who has served in the Scottish parliament since it was established in 1999. He served as Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, and as seen as the continuity/establishment candidate. He is also firmly on the centre left.

Forbes is 34. A former finance secretary, she is socially and economically more conservative. She was first elected to the Scottish parliament in 2016.

Updated

MSPs to debate Labour's no confidence motion in Scottish government tomorrow

The Scottish parliament has confirmed that Labour’s motion of no confidence in the Scottish government will be debated by MSPs tomorrow. But, even though the SNP does not have a majority, the Labour motion is not expected to pass. It does not have the support of the two pro-independence opposition parties, the Scottish Greens and Alba.

Welsh Tories table motion in Senedd challenging Labour government in Cardiff to accept Cass review recommendations

When Hilary Cass published her review of gender identity services for children, saying medical evidence did not generally justify giving puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to children, she said the “toxity of the debate” around trans children was exceptional, and she said she would like to see the issue discussed in a less polarised way.

But that has not stopped her report becoming a political football. The UK government responded to it with a ministerial statement treating it as a landmark victory in a culture war. In Scotland the Cass report arguably contributed to the downfall of Humza Yousaf, because it was the Rainbow Greens who launched the process to end the SNP/Scottish Greens pact, and they were partly motivated by the SNP government’s stance on puberty blockers.

And in Wales the Welsh Conservatives have now announced that they are using Cass to attack the Welsh Labour government. Even though they say NHS England’s decision to stop giving puberty blockers to children will mean there is no pathway for Welsh under-18s to get them, they have tabled a motion for debate in the Senedd challenging the Welsh government to say it will accept the Cass recommendations.

Laura Anne Jones, social justice spokesperson for the Welsh Tories in the Senedd, said:

The landmark Cass review is hugely significant for Wales. Regretfully, despite the weight of the findings, we are still yet to see a Labour minister come to the Senedd and give a statement in response.

In the Senedd tomorrow, I look forward to bringing forward a Welsh Conservative debate on the Cass review, and will call on the Labour government to adopt the recommendations of the Cass review.

The Welsh government has said it is reviewing the conclusions of the Cass report. As Nation Cymru reports, a spokesperson said:

The Cass review aims to ensure children and young people who are questioning their gender identity or experiencing gender dysphoria, and require support from the NHS, receive a high standard of care that meets their needs and is safe, holistic and effective.

We are committed to improving the gender identity development pathway and the support available for young people in Wales, in line with the commitments in our LGBTQ+ plan.

We will consider the review’s findings and continue to be driven by the evidence to support the needs of young people who are questioning their gender.

Tories 'crazy' to allow members to elect leader when party is in government, says 1922 Committee chair Graham Brady

The Conservative MP who is in charge of leadership contests in the party has said that it’s “crazy” to allow members to choose who wins when the party is in government.

As the Daily Telegraph reveals, Sir Graham Brady, chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, made the comment in a speech at Durham University last week.

Brady explained that, under the system set up by William Hague when he was party leader in 1998, MPs vote until they have whittled down the list of leadership candidates to the final two, and then party members elect on of those two candidates as leader. Previously the leader was just elected by MPS.

Brady went on:

I’m the first chairman of the ‘22 who has had to operate it while we’ve been in government … And so my view is that that was a mistake to introduce that rule.

I think it’s fine to have the party members voting on the leader when you’re in opposition. But in a parliamentary system where essentially you could only remain prime minister if you enjoyed the confidence of your party in parliament, it seems to me crazy that we now have different mechanisms … The Conservative members of parliament can get rid of the leader by voting no confidence, but then the leader is supplied by the party members.

Brady said that he would like to change the rules so that, when the Tories are in government, just MPs choose the leader. But he said this would “never happen” because the rule change would have to be approved by a two-thirds majority, and party members would never back it.

The Telegraph has posted a recording of Brady making this argument on X.

Updated

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar launches withering attack on John Swinney, favourite to be next first minister

The Scottish Tories may be withdrawing their no confidence motion in Humza Yousaf, but Scottish Labour is not withdrawing its no confidence motion in the Scottish government as a whole, its leader, Anas Sarwar, has told LBC. This is from LBC’s Alan Zyncinksi.

NEW: The @ScottishLabour leader @AnasSarwar tells me they won’t be withdrawing their motion of no confidence in the Scottish Government. Also asked him what he makes of next potential @theSNP leaders John Swinney and Kate Forbes… “None of these people represent change”

Sarwar also said that he did not think either Kate Forbes or John Swinney, who are seen as the two favourites to replace Yousaf, would be able to deliver change.

Under Forbes, there would be “more chaos’, because some SNP colleagues would not support her, Sarwar said.

And, turning to Swinney, who is seen as the frontrunner, Sarwar said:

You have a man who’s been at the heart of the SNP government for the last 17 years, at the heart of SNP leadership for the last 14 years, he was the architect of the Bute House agreement, and we’ve seen the chaos that’s come from it, he was the worst education secretary in the history of the Scottish parliament, and he was the finance secretary that has broken local government finance, and you can see the consequences we’ve had from local community organisations and local communities in general right across the country.

Foreign care worker visa applications down 25%

The number of foreign care workers applying for a visa to come to the UK fell by a quarter in six months, PA Media reports. PA says:

Health and care visa applications covering 153,500 people were made from October 2023 to March 2024, comprising 40,800 main applicants and 112,700 dependants, provisional Home Office data shows.

This is down 25% from 205,800 people in the six months from April to September 2023, comprising 88,800 main applicants and 117,000 dependants, according to PA news agency analysis of the figures.

The data, published on Tuesday, also show the number of people per month included in health and care visa applications appears to have peaked in August 2023, at 41,600 (18,300 main applicants and 23,300 dependants).

Since then, the total has been on a broad downwards trend and has fallen every month in a row since November 2023.

The figures cover the period prior to a raft of restrictions being introduced by the government in a bid to cut the number of people legally arriving in Britain.

More changes to immigration rules were gradually introduced from last month, with a ban on foreign care workers bringing their families with them to the UK, and a requirement for care providers to register with the Care Quality Commission if they are sponsoring migrants coming into force on March 11.

The Home Office has also announced that the number of dependants accompanying people with student visas was down 80% in January to March 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This reflects the fact that the government has now banned most international students from getting visas allowing them bring their dependants with them.

Scottish Tories withdraw no confidence motion into Humza Yousaf, saying his resignation means 'it's job done'

The Scottish Conservatives are withdrawing the motion of no confidence in Humza Yousaf that they tabled last week. They say there is no need to put it a vote because Yousaf is standing down as first minister.

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservatives’ leader, said:

I’m delighted that the Scottish Conservative motion of no confidence in Humza Yousaf achieved its purpose by forcing him to resign.

While, on a personal level, I wish him well for the future, he was a disaster as first Minister and it’s in Scotland’s interests that he goes.

The next goal for my party is to see off this feuding, failing SNP government and switch the focus away from their independence obsession and on to the public’s real priorities – such as growing the economy and improving Scotland’s ailing public services.

As it’s job done in terms of Humza Yousaf, there’s no longer any need for us to press ahead with a debate on our no-confidence motion.

Starmer defends Rayner and urges broadcasters to ask Sunak to disclose his advice about his wife's non-dom tax savings

In his interview with ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Keir Starmer also defended Angela Rayner – and challenged broadcasters asking about her tax advice to question Rishi Sunak about his wife’s non-dom arrangments.

Starmer has repeatedly defended Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, who has been accused of dodging capital gains tax (CGT) she allegedly should have paid when, before she became an MP, she sold the council home she had previously brought. Rayner has said that she has had tax or legal advice saying she did not owe CGT. Starmer said his staff have seen this, but he has not personally.

When Richard Madeley, the presenter, said he could not understand why Starmer had not asked to see the advice himself, Starmer replied:

In the end the question we’re addressing here is where Angela Rayner was living 10 or 15 years ago and Angela has answered that question I don’t know how many times. The question at the end is quite a straightforward question, which is do you believe Angela Rayner about where she says she was living?

The answer to that question, for me, is yes. I don’t need the legal advice to tell me whether I believe Angela Rayner when she tells me where she was living.

Asked again if he was curious to read the legal advice, Starmer said he had given legal advice many times over the years, and legal advice was confidential.

When it was put to him that he did not want to review it in case it contained something problematic, he replied: “Not at all.” He went on:

If a member of my shadow cabinet tells me that they’re have to have an operation. I don’t ask to see the medical advice. I don’t ask for their medical notes.

When Madeley put it to Starmer that Rayner was under a police investigation, Starmer repeated his point about how he did not need to see legal advice to tell him to believe Rayner. Then he turned to the subject of Sunak’s finances.

I would also just gently say this. Rishi Sunak’s wife was a non-dom for many years. She has given it up now. I would be intrigued and curious to see the tax advice that Rishi Sunak and his family have had, because they have avoided I don’t know how many hundreds of thousands of pounds of tax … I would gently invite you, when Rishi Sunak is next on, to see whether you can get him to show you his tax advice.

When it was put to him that the Sunak’s were not under criminal investigation, Starmer did not challenge that, but he said they had avoided “a huge amount of tax”.

(Starmer was actually wrong about Sunak’s wife, Akshata Murty. After the revelation that she was a non-dom triggered a huge row in April 2022, Murty said in future she would pay UK tax on all her income. But, technically, she did not give up her non-dom status.)

Updated

Starmer backs government proposal to stop trans women being treated in female-only wards

Keir Starmer said his views on gender issues “start with biology” as he backed blocking trans women from female-only hospital wards and prisons in an interview with ITV’s Good Morning Britain, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Labour leader was speaking as the government proposed changes to England’s NHS constitution to give patients the right to request to be treated on single-sex wards, with transgender people placed in rooms on their own.

Starmer told the programme: “There’s a distinction between sex and gender. The Labour Party has championed women’s rights for a very long time.”

He has previously said that “99.9% of women” do not have a penis and in 2021 he said it was “not right” for Labour MP Rosie Duffield to state that “only women have a cervix”.

But asked about his response to Duffield’s argument, Starmer said: “Biologically, she of course is right about that.”

Asked if he would apologise to the Canterbury MP, Labour leader Starmer said: “I don’t want this to go back into this toxic place where everybody is divided.”

But he said: “Rosie Duffield and I get on very well, we discuss a number of issues. She’s a much-respected member of the parliamentary Labour party and I want to have a discussion with her and anybody else about how we go forward in a positive way.”

Asked how Labour would respond to transgender women who did not want to go on to male hospital wards, Starmer said: “We have to accommodate that situation as it arises, but treat everybody with respect and dignity … I do not accept this is an issue that cannot be resolved with respect and dignity.

“Where we need to make accommodations, we can make accommodations … As a country, we’re a pretty reasonable, tolerant bunch and most people know that there are a small number of individuals who do not identify with the gender that they were born into.

“Many of them suffer great distress and trauma. And for my part, I’m perfectly happy to say I would treat them, as I would treat anybody, with respect.”

Here is some comment on the YouGov polling from Tees Valley and the West Midlands. (see 9.30am) from pollsters and commentators.

From Damian Lyons Lowe from Survation, a polling company

According to (Conservative) MPs, the fate of Ben Houchen! and Andy Street on May 2 are key at the locals.

It is worth noting that Houchen’s 72.8% share of the vote in 2021 was the same % as the second safest Westminster Tory seat in the country - Rayleigh and Wickford.

I don’t think anyone is projecting 1 Conservative seat at the next GE. Any narrative that declares Tees Valley staying blue as a locals victory is not serious.

Furthermore, Houchen’s skin is only likely to be saved due the absence of a Reform candidate standing, Reform are standing in Rayleigh at the next election.

These are from the Beyond Topline psephology account on X

YouGov poll of Tees Valley suggests 65% of 2019 Tory voters sticking with Houchen - that includes don’t knows.

That would mean Houchen is keeping onboard 2x as many 2019 Tory voters as the Conservatives are nationally (where 33-35% are sticking with Cons with YouGov)

Oh and by the way, despite that, this poll *still* implies a 20 pt swing from Tory to Labour (a 7 pt winning margin, down from 46).

That’s also bigger than the national swing since May 2021 (about 15 pts in polls), consistent with the proportional swing we’ve been seeing.

That said, Houchen’s baseline was pretty extraordinary in the first place. His winning margin in 2021 was far beyond what you’d expect for the area and reflected his personal popularity.

Yeah, to use mayoral contests as yardsticks for the parties, you need to isolate the party brand from individuals, such that the candidates are essentially unknown ‘generic Labour’ vs ‘generic Tory’.

East Midlands and North Yorkshire are the only Mayorals that pass this test.

From James Kanagasooriam, the Tory pollster credited with coming up with the concept of the “red wall”

V.interesting numbers from @YouGov. Implying that Andy Street’s personal premium above the party has balloned from 6% in 2021 to 18% today. Houchen’s polling 51% in Teeside implies a similar personal vote vs 2021 of around c.30% above the party nationally

From Alastair Campbell, the podcaster and former Labour communications chief

Something almost sweet about the Tories trying to pretend these are the key votes on Thursday. Check out Kenneth Baker Westminster Wandsworth strategy back in the 90s. These spin operations only work if the media let them. Ps if Houchen holds on keeps the Teesworks corruption in lights for the general and drags them all into it cos making such a big deal of it. They’re just not very good at politics

From Luke Akehurst, a Labour activist and member of the party’s national executive committee

Suspect Houchen or Street winning would be as double edged for Tories as Ossie O’Brien winning the Darlington byelection was for Labour in 1983 - it consolidated Foot’s leadership and meant an unpopular leader carried on to lose the GE by a landslide rather than being ousted.

From my colleague Jessica Elgot

If Houchen wins, it will be a bright spot for Rishi Sunak but frankly last time he won by 73% of the vote so any loss there would be extraordinary. But it might tell us something interesting about whether Tory vote in north east is a bit stickier than elsewhere of the 2019 wave.

From Dylan Difford, a supporter of the Make Votes Matter campaign

The probable outcome of the locals is that Labour’s PNS score is where it should be for their poll lead, Tories lose lots of councillors and a by-election, high levels of Lab-LD tactical voting. But because Houchen narrowly holds a 46pt majority, it’ll be a ‘mixed picture’.

The PNS is the projected national share – the figure produced by psephologists after the local elections showing what the share of the vote would have been if everyone in the country had voted in the same way as those people who did vote in the locals.

Updated

Home Office has lost contact with thousands of potential Rwanda deportees, data shows

Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, has said the Home Office is “used to” losing contact with asylum seekers, after official figures suggested thousands of people it hoped to deport to Rwanda had stopped reporting. Jessica Elgot has the story here.

Boost for Rishi Sunak before local elections as poll suggests Tories could win two key mayoral contests

Good morning. With just two days left before the local elections in England, which could see the Consevatives lose half their seats, according to at least one projection, Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak have both had bits of good news to celebrate in the last 24 hours.

For Starmer, the ongoing SNP meltdown is a big bonus. There are no elections in Scotland this week, but one of the big obstacles to Labour’s recovery at Westminster has been the SNP’s dominance in Scottish politics over the last decade, and that is withering. The SNP is now looking for a candidate to replace Humza Yousaf as first minister and the former deputy first miniser John Swinney seems to be favourite.

I will report any developments on that today.

But there was good news for Sunak last night too. Local election results have a direct impact locally (it can matter a lot who is running your council), but in terms of national politics what matters more is the presentional impact. It is almost impossible to imagine local election results that will look like a triumph for the Tories. But there is an important difference between an unmitigated disaster, and a bad night with a couple of “silver lining” consolation results, and a YouGov poll last night suggests Sunak might clinch two of these.

It suggests Ben Houchen, the Conservative Tees Valley mayor, is seven points ahead of Labour, and on course to win.

A poll two weeks ago by another firm had Houchen neck and neck with his Labour rival, Chris McEwan.

And the new YouGov polling suggests that Andy Street, the Tory West Midlands mayor, is just two points ahead of Labour, which statistically means it is too close to call.

Previous polls have had Labour’s Richard Parker ahead in the West Midlands (by 14 points, one suggested).

This matters because, if Sunak were to lose both the West Midlands and Tees Valley on Thursday, it is hard to see how that would not trigger utter turmoil in the parliamentary party, and a probable leadership challenge. But if the Tories can hold one or even both, Sunak will be able to argue that electoral defeat is not inevitable, and that a Tory leader with a record of delivery can win. Margaret Thatcher pulled off a similar trick in 1990, when Conservative HQ manage to spin mostly dire results in the local election as a win because the Tories held Wandsworth and Westminster.

Of course, holding the West Midlands and Tees Valley would not for a moment alter the fact that national polling implies the Tories are on course to lose the general election very badly. But it might avert a spring leadership crisis.

The Conservatives are also having some success at dictating the campaign agenda. Starmer was on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning. Labour is campaigning on the cost of living. But Starmer spent much of the first 10 minutes of the interview being asked about trans issues (he backed the government announcement today saying trans women should not be treated in female-only wards in England), and then spent the rest of the interview fielding questions about Angela Rayner. He was being defensive, and clearly wanted to talk about something else. I will post more on what he said soon.

Starmer has a further campaign announcement coming later today.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.

9.30am: The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities publishes homelessness figures for England.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

2pm: Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6, gives evidence to the Commons foreign affairs committee about counter-terrorism policy.

Afternoon: Starmer speaks at an Usdaw conference in Blackpool.

3pm: David Cameron, the foreign secretary, gives evidence to the Lords international relations and defence committee.

If you want to contact me, do use the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.

Updated

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