Britain has unveiled a unilateral plan to drastically overhaul post-Brexit trade rules in Northern Ireland, sparking deep concern from both the European Union and United States on how the move could impact the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended 30 years of sectarian violence.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss set out steps to break a deadlock with the EU on the so-called Northern Ireland protocol, lining up a new law to unilaterally ease the movement of goods if talks with Brussels fail.
The move further inflamed relations with the EU – including the Republic of Ireland – which said the path chosen by London was of great concern.
The EU, in its defence of the Northern Ireland Protocol and the integrity of its vast single market, vowed reprisals if Britain pushed ahead with its plans.
The protocol was agreed as part of Britain's Brexit divorce with the EU, recognising Northern Ireland's status as a fragile, post-conflict territory that shares the UK's new land border with the EU.
Its requirement for checks on goods arriving from England, Scotland and Wales has infuriated pro-UK unionists in Northern Ireland who claim the protocol undermines their place within the UK, and are refusing to join a new power-sharing government in Belfast following elections earlier this month.
The UK would pull out of Ulster if it could
Damaged trust in UK
With both the EU and UK at loggerheads over the re-writing of the post-Brexit deal, one would be forgiven for thinking Brussels and London are on the verge of a trade war.
Eamon Mallie, award-winning specialist on Northern Irish politics and the Troubles, says there is always hope.
"It seems extraordinary that having achieved the Good Friday Agreement between the British and Irish governments, and how difficult that was to achieve, we have this [spat] which does not involve life and death situations," he told RFI.
"The workings of the [Good Friday] agreement, were very much tied to people's lives, because people were dying in Northern Ireland for many, many years. So it shouldn't be an imponderable problem – but it seems to be imponderable – particularly if people start talking about unilateral action."
The question remains how the UK's rewriting of an international agreement will impact bilateral relations with individual states, with whom the post-Brexit UK has been seeking to do business.
Across the board, it would appear that any trust in the Johnson administration has been completely eroded.
"That is the interpretation," says Mallie. "Because it was an internationally binding agreement. And there's a perception now worldwide and Nancy Pelosi's intervention is very significant, because Boris Johnson sold this pup that there will be fabulous trade deals all over the world."
The Good Friday Accords are the bedrock of peace in Northern Ireland and a beacon of hope for the world. Ensuring there is no physical border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland is necessary for upholding this landmark agreement, which transformed Northern Ireland.
— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) May 19, 2022
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You don't want to mess with the US
On Thursday, the US speaker of the House Pelosi unequivocally stressed that "if the United Kingdom chooses to undermine the Good Friday Accords, Congress cannot and will not support a bilateral free trade agreement with the United Kingdom".
Mallie told RFI that her words should be taken extremely seriously by the Johnson administration.
"Nancy Pelosi has put down a marker ... the second most powerful politician in America," he says. "And she said there would be no trade deals with America if you act unilaterally and try to skip up on what was agreed between you and the European Commission.
"We're in dangerous territory here, but I don't see it without hope. I don't think it's hopeless. I think that there's a lot of common sense within Europe."
That bilateral trade stick has already been waved at London by the Biden administration and it was essentially ignored by Johnson’s government. Will her words have any effect on the British government’s approach to finding a compromise?
"That unilateralism, by [Liz] Truss is what is exacerbating the American administration, and we can't afford to pussyfoot or mess around with America.
"We need inward investment here and the Americans know the advantage of locating in Northern Ireland, because they have the facility of [accessing] Britain and Europe through the Republic of Ireland. So there are big advantages," he underlines.
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A trade war on two fronts
US President Joe Biden, with his strong Irish-American identity, will come down hard on any unilateral moves that undermine the Good Friday Agreement.
"Boris Johnson signed an internationally binding agreement, and this is not going down well with [US politicians] who keep a very tight eye on Northern Ireland," Mallie says.
"Johnson must know that he's running into a serious cul-de-sac if he cannot build a relationship with Europe to guarantee a proper trade agreement. If he imperils an American trade agreement and imperils a European trade agreement – those are the two biggest blocs which are which are important to Britain – and here he is picking a fight with both.
"Russia isn't going to do Britain any favours, so he needs Europe and he needs America. And he's picked fights with both of them.
"And he's violated and internationally binding agreement, which he signed."
Meanwhile, the European Union has given no hint of compromise, after warning that any UK violation of the Brexit pact could see it hit back with weighty tariffs.
For his part Johnson, has said a trade war is unlikely... and the UK can ill-afford one, at a time when Britons are grappling with the worst inflationary crisis in a generation.
Full Interview - The Northern Ireland Protocol Débacle - Eamonn Mallie
Eamon Mallie is an award-winning specialist on Northern Irish politics and the Troubles
