Closing summary
Falling petrol prices pushed Britain’s inflation rate back below 10% in August in the first easing of upward pressure on the cost of living in almost a year.
The consumer prices index – the government’s preferred measure of inflation – dipped from 10.1% in July to 9.9% last month, with cheaper motoring costs more than offsetting the impact of dearer food.
Despite the better-than-expected figure, the Bank of England is still expected to raise interest rates by 0.5 points when its monetary policy committee meets next week.
Our analysis:
The EU expects to raise €140bn from windfall taxes on energy company profits to “cushion the blow” of the energy crisis, report Jennifer Rankin in Brussels and Alex Lawson in London.
The emergency levy will be placed on oil, gas and coal firms alongside a separate measure to cap revenues from renewable electricity generators at less than half of current market prices.
Our other main stories today:
Looks like the government has responded – it will confirm further details of a support scheme for businesses struggling with energy bills next week, with a promise to backdate that help in October if it faces delays.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said that the government “will confirm further details of the business support scheme next week”. Businesses have in recent days expressed concern about having to wait longer than households for help on soaring energy costs. The spokesman said:
We will confirm further details of the business support scheme next week.
The scheme will support businesses with their October energy bills and that includes through backdating if necessary.
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Take care! – JK
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Our acting deputy Money editor Zoe Wood has spoken to a family about the impact rising living costs are having on them.
“Winter is our big fear at the moment because we don’t know exactly how it’s going to shake out. All we know is we’re basically going to be skint,” says Dan Collins.
Collins and his partner, Lucy Woolhead, welcomed identical twins Scarlett and Beatrix in February and their short lives have been in step with the cost of living crisis. While official figures published on Wednesday showed runaway inflation dipped below 10% last month, as lower petrol and diesel prices offset dearer food, Sarah Coles of the analysts Hargreaves Lansdown said this was just a “pause for breath”.
Coles said motoring costs were more of a concern for those on higher incomes, and low earners remained under pressure. “Those on the lowest incomes, who are suffering the most as a result of rising prices, are still facing impossible energy bills and horrible hikes in the cost of food,” she said.
Here is our analysis on the UK inflation figures: Bank of England will not take foot off throttle despite drop in inflation.
Headline inflation dipped below 10%, to 9.9%, as petrol prices fell, but food prices picked up further, as did the core inflation rate which strips out energy and food.
My colleague Phillip Inman, economics editor of the Observer, writes:
The drop in inflation from 10.1% in July to 9.9% last month is not going to trouble the Bank of England’s policymakers when they meet next week to set interest rates. Its monetary policy committee (MPC) is on a mission to increase the cost of borrowing to bring down inflation to 2%. Prices growth that sticks at almost 10% is still too high. One month’s figures are not a trend.
The nine MPC members will also ponder several other developments at home and abroad that can be considered reasons to increase interest rates.
Top of the list will be the government’s £150bn energy subsidy scheme, which will benefit millions of people who, many have argued, don’t need to be cushioned from the gas price shock.
Better-off households are more likely to spend the money on imported items that are in short supply, thereby forcing retailers to increase their prices further. Higher interest rates will feed through to monthly mortgage bills and persuade them to rein in their spending. At least that’s the theory.
Wages are another subject of concern for the Bank’s rate-setters. In July, wages growth increased to 5.2% from 4.7% in June. These figures may be well short of the inflation rate and reveal the worst squeeze on living standards in two generations, but they still worry the MPC, which fears higher wages will trigger higher prices in years to come when other business costs have calmed down.
US stock futures edge up after producer price data
After yesterday’s inflation shock from the US which triggered a stock market sell-off around the world, the latest producer price data appear to have calmed nerves a bit.
Producer prices dipped 0.1% in August from July, and rose 8.7% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core producer prices, which strip out volatile food, energy and trade services, rose 0.2% last month from July and by 5.6% year-on-year.
The monthly change was below estimates while the year-on-year change was in line with analysts’ forecasts, and the core readings were slightly hotter than estimates.
US stock futures have edged higher, by 0.3% for the S&P 500 and nearly 0.2% for the Dow Jones, pointing to a positive open on Wall Street.
Germany’s local utilities face insolvencies amid soaring energy prices and a potential rise in customer defaults, the head of the industry group VKU told Reuters.
VKU’s managing director Ingbert Liebing said the group was in talks with the German government in Berlin about measures to make more financing available.
Local utilities are relevant for the entire energy system.
We want to avoid insolvencies. I must warn that if individual companies are allowed to go bust, then it could become more difficult to finance the activities of all.
More than 1,500 such companies, municipal utilities called Stadtwerke, distribute two-thirds of all gas in Germany, and many. also provide a mix of power, water, waste disposal, broadband and public transport services.
Big energy players like Uniper or the VNG parent EnBW have access to a €100bn fund by state bank KfW, while the smaller firms cannot tap into it, Liebing noted.
We have made suggestions as to how this [KfW] programme can be improved so that municipal utilities can make better use of it.
Global oil demand to stall in Q4 – IEA
Global demand for oil is set to grind to a halt between October and December as the economic slowdown deepens, but is expected to bounce back next year, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil report today.
This assumes that China' will ease its Covid lockdowns, while growth in air travel should boost demand for jet fuel from airlines.
The Paris-based think tank said:
Global oil demand remains under pressure from the faltering Chinese economy and an ongoing slowdown in OECD economies.
Non-OECD countries will cover three quarters of 2023’s gains if China reopens as expected.
The IEA cut its forecast for demand growth this year by 110,000 barrels per day to 2m bpd, while sticking to its 2023 growth forecast of 2.1m bpd.
In the eurozone, industrial production was much weaker than expected in July, according to figures from the EU’s statistics office Eurostat.
Production fell by 2.3% from the month before, following a. 1.1% increase in June. This was because of a sharp decline, of 4.2%, in the output of capital goods that are used to make finished products – buildings, machinery, equipment and tools – and reflect business investment.
This suggests businesses have sharply cut back investment in equipment and machinery, and doesn’t bode well for the economic outlook.
Jamie Durham, economist at PwC UK, explained:
This data shows that there was still plenty of momentum in the market in July, despite the weakening economic outlook, with average prices up £6,000 between June and July. However, there have been some signs of a slowdown over the last couple of months in more timely data. Mortgage approvals have now dropped below historical averages and agents are reporting fewer new buyer enquiries.
Looking forward, we do expect price growth to slow over the coming months as households look again at what they can afford and whether now is the time to buy. At this point, however, we are not expecting a significant decline in prices because while demand is likely to soften there is still a shortage of properties on the market.
Last week’s appointment of a new Prime Minister and the announcement of the £2,500 energy price cap is likely to improve consumer confidence and ease the pressure on households, which may mean the housing market performs better than would otherwise have been the case.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at the property firm Knight Frank, said:
The large jump in house prices recorded in July tells us more about how a stamp duty holiday can alter the course of the housing market than where prices are headed next.
The new government’s energy support package combined with record low unemployment will help oil the wheels of the property market but rising mortgage rates will ultimately curb the double-digit price growth seen over the last two years although we don’t expect prices to fall. The government is effectively in pre-election mode and further tax cuts will benefit the housing market in the short-term. The risk is that fiscal largesse today means rates will eventually need to rise faster.
UK house price growth at 19-year high due to tax effect
More stats from the UK’s statistics office: UK average house prices increased by 15.5% in the year to July to a record £292,000, adding nearly £40,000 to the average home over the last year. This is the highest annual rate the country has seen since May 2003, and compares with 7.8% in June.
This jump in inflation was caused by a base effect from the falls in prices seen this time last year, as a result of changes in the stamp duty holiday. Last year, prices were lower in July because buyers rushed to complete purchases before the stamp duty holiday started to taper off at the end of June 2021.
Here’s the ONS summary:
Average UK house prices increased by £6,000 between June and July this year, compared with a fall of £13,000 between the same months last year.
The average UK house price was £292,000 in July 2022, which is £39,000 higher than this time last year.
Average house prices increased over the year in England to £312,000 (16.4%), in Wales to £220,000 (17.6%), in Scotland to £193,000 (9.9%) and in Northern Ireland to £169,000 (9.6%).
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Last night, Center Parcs backtracked after facing accusations of “ruining people’s holidays”by announcing it would close its UK sites for 24 hours from Monday morning to mark the Queen’s funeral.
Earlier on Tuesday the holiday company had announced that guests at its five UK parks would have to leave by 10am on Monday, even if they are in the middle of their stay, and will not be able to return until the same time on Tuesday morning…
The decision meant that any guests who were in the middle of their holiday on Monday would have to spend the night elsewhere, or otherwise go home early. Center Parcs told holidaymakers on social media that while they would have to vacate the park overnight, they could leave their belongings in their accommodation.
However, on Tuesday evening, after an outcry on social media and widespread negative press reports, the company said that it had “reviewed our position regarding the very small number of guests who are not due to depart on Monday and we will be allowing them to stay on our villages rather than having to leave and return on Tuesday”.
As the Queen’s coffin makes its way through London today in a ceremonial procession ahead of her funeral on Monday, my colleague Joanna Partridge has looked at the royal family’s finances. You can catch up on the latest on the death of the Queen here:
Jo writes:
King Charles III will inherit his mother’s considerable wealth alongside assets belonging to the crown. One of the richest people in the world, Queen Elizabeth II inherited much of her fortune but is credited with having made some astute investments during her long life and reign.
The sovereign and the wider royal family have three main sources of income, the crown estate, the Duchy of Lancaster and Duchy of Cornwall, much of it derived from centuries-long ownership of land and property across the country, including in central London, and even the seabed around swathes of the British Isles, amounting to assets with a combined value of more than £17bn…
The crown estate passed from the Queen to Charles without the requirement to pay inheritance tax, the standard rate of which is 40%, charged on the part of an estate above a certain threshold, to a maximum of £500,000 for each individual.
British businesses have been warned by government officials that they will have to wait longer than households for financial support with their energy bills amid delays in launching the £150bn scheme, The Financial Times reported.
Company bosses are increasingly worried about the prospect of delays to the arrival of support because fixed energy contracts come to an end in October for hundreds of thousands of firms.
Business leaders have been told by government officials in recent meetings that the support scheme for companies may not be ready until November, the FT said, although it cited officials who hope the package could still be activated next month.
Wind and solar farms and nuclear power stations in the EU would face a cap of €180 per megawatt hour on the revenues they receive for generating electricity, with governments recouping any extra cash and distributing it to hard-hit consumers, according to the draft Commission paper.
This would cap generators’ revenues at less than half of current market prices. Germany’s front-year electricity price hit a record of more than €1,000 per megawatt hour lat month, and is trading at just below €500 today.
Fossil fuel firms – oil, gas and coal companies – would be required to contribute 33% of their taxable surplus profits from the fiscal year 2022, according to the draft paper.
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Aside from the temporary emergency measures to contain the energy crisis, the European Commission president talked about longer-term measures.
Another important topic is on the agenda. Today our gas market has changed dramatically: from pipeline gas mainly to increasing amounts of LNG.
But the benchmark used in the gas market – the TTF – has not adapted.
This is why the Commission will work on establishing a more representative benchmark.
At the same time we also know that energy companies are facing severe problems with liquidity in electricity futures markets, risking the functioning of our energy system.
We will work with market regulators to ease these problems by amending the rules on collateral - and by taking measures to limit intra-day price volatility.
And we will amend the temporary state aid framework in October to allow for the provision of state guarantees, while preserving a level playing field.
She also promised a “deep and comprehensive reform of the electricity market” to decouple it from gas, which currently determines the price of electricity.
After her speech and the parliamentary debate, Ursula von der Leyen will head to Ukraine. She is dressed in blue and yellow, which are both the EU’s and Ukraine’s flag colours.
EU chief proposes new energy crisis measures
The European Union will propose measures to cap revenues from low-cost electricity generators and force oil, gas and coal companies to share the profits they generate from surging energy prices, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said this morning.
In her annual state of the union speech to the European parliament in Strasbourg, she said:
EU Member States have already invested billions of euros to assist vulnerable households. But we know this will not be enough.
This is why we are proposing a cap on the revenues of companies that produce electricity at a low cost.
These companies are making revenues they never accounted for, they never even dreamt of.
In our social market economy, profits are good. But in these times it is wrong to receive extraordinary record profits benefitting from war and on the back of consumers. In these times, profits must be shared and channelled to those who need it the most.
Our proposal will raise more than €140bn for member states to cushion the blow directly.
And because we are in a fossil fuel crisis, the fossil fuel industry has a special duty, too. Major oil, gas and coal companies are also making huge profits. So they have to pay a fair share – they have to give a crisis contribution.
These are all emergency and temporary measures we are working on, including our discussions on price caps.
The Commission has backed away from a plan to cap Russian gas prices, though, as EU countries are divided over whether this would help or damage Europe’s efforts to secure energy supplies for the winter.
Our woman in Brussels, Jennifer Rankin, reported on a leaked draft paper and divisions among member states yesterday:
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George Dibb, head of the Centre for Economic Justice at the Institute for Public Policy Research, a UK thinktank, echoed those thoughts.
Many people will welcome CPI inflation easing slightly this month, falling from 10.1% to 9.9%, including the Bank of England who are deciding whether to raise interest rates next week. However, this headline figure has been pulled down by falling petrol prices, and it hides worrying news that the prices of food and clothing are continuing to accelerate upwards.
High inflation means high prices, and without intervention this will lead to more hardship, more poverty and more destitution. The government’s price cap on energy for households and businesses is a welcome step but it won’t instantly reduce the inflation in essentials such as food and clothing that we see today. This goes to show why the price cap policy alone is not enough. The most vulnerable households on the lowest incomes still require more support through the welfare system.
The Resolution Foundation, which focuses on living standards, said inflation weighed more heavily on poorer households.
The fall in CPI inflation from 10.1% to 9.9% was “entirely driven by falling transport costs”. But the think tank said the cost-of-living gap between high and low-income households has grown – with the poorest 10th of households experiencing an average inflation rate of 10.6%, compared to 9% for the richest.
Jack Leslie, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said:
High inflation continues to drive Britain’s cost-of-living crisis, but the outlook has brightened considerably over the past week.
The energy price guarantee should prevent a second winter surge in prices, while factory gate inflation is starting to ease.
However, high inflation is set to be with us for some time, particularly for low-income who continue to be hit hardest by high prices. Having delivered 2,200 worth of cost-of-living support for every household this year, the government will need to consider what support will be needed next year too.
James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, has looked at core inflation in more detail.
Headline inflation will rise a little further having eased back below 10% in August, and it’s likely to stay around 11% into early next year before falling back more dramatically. However, the Bank of England is watching wage growth more closely, as the hawks worry that worker shortages could lead to core inflation staying more persistently above target.
With the government due to cap the average household energy bill at £2,500, up from around £2,000 now, we expect a peak in the region of 11% in October. That’s compared to 16% in January which is what we’d forecasted before the support was announced.
We’d expect inflation to stay around there until early next year, before cooling more quickly as energy base effects kick-in. We think it could be more-or-less back to the Bank of England’s 2% target by the end of next year, crazy as that currently seems.
But what policymakers are more interested in is core inflation – or to put it more accurately, the more persistent parts of the inflation basket. Here the news is mixed. On a month-on-month price basis, the increases we saw in August do seem fairly broad-based. However, there are signs that ‘core goods’ inflation is easing off, linked perhaps to the rise in retailer inventory levels relative to sales. That’s a function of supply chains beginning to improve, and in some cases commodity prices having fallen, which is coinciding with reduced demand for goods.
European shares are falling again. The UK’s FTSE 100 index has lost nearly 40 points, or 0.5%, to 7,347 just after the opening bell, as the surprise fall in the inflation rate did little to alter expectations of a 75 basis point rate hike at next week’s Bank of England meeting.
The sell-off on Wall Street yesterday following evidence of stubbornly high prices in the US is also weighing on markets in Europe.
Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC are both down 0.5% while Spain’s Ibex is flat and Italy’s FTSE MiB has edged 0.2% lower.
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However, inflation worries remain. Core inflation (which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 6.3% last month from 6.2% in July, rather than easing like the headline rate.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said:
The easing in CPI inflation from 10.1% in July to 9.9% in August is a bit of a relief after yesterday’s US CPI shocker, but overall and core UK CPI inflation haven’t peaked yet. As such, the Bank of England will have to continue turning the screws.
…We’re more concerned by the continued upward momentum in services inflation, which rose from 5.7% to 5.9%. That’s why core CPI inflation stayed at a 30-year high of 6.3%. Services inflation is being driven by the tight labour market and strong wage growth, which has shown little sign of abating yet.
Overall, we think CPI inflation will peak around 11.0% just before the end of the year and that core inflation will continue to edge higher too. That means the Bank will have to continue raising interest rates, from 1.75% now to 3.00% if not higher.
UK inflation drop eases pressure on Bank of England
The unexpected slowdown in UK inflation eases the pressure on the Bank of England and means it doesn’t need the “strangle the economy” by raising interest rates all the way to 4%, as markets anticipate, one economist says.
“In one line: Sustaining, rather than increasing, the pressure on the monetary policy committee (MPC) to act,” says Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The headline rate of CPI inflation fell in August for the first time since last September and now looks set to drop sharply next year, thanks partly to the government’s energy price cap.
A sharp decline in motor fuel CPI inflation to 32.1% in August, from 43.7% in July, was the primary driver of the decline in the headline rate. This dominated a further rise in food CPI inflation to 13.1%, from 12.6%, which was linked to past sharp increases in producer and import prices.
Looking ahead, we think that the headline rate of CPI inflation will rise to almost 11% in October, driven by a 1.0pp increase in the contribution from electricity and natural gas prices. The latter will rise by only 27% month-to-month in October, far less than the 80% increase announced by Ofgem last month, following the new PM’s intervention last week.
But we’re increasingly confident that October’s rate of CPI inflation will prove to be the peak and that it will ease rapidly in 2023, perhaps even all the way back to the 2% target by the end of the year. Admittedly, some services prices—such as rents for tenants of social housing and mobile phone contract prices—rise every year with reference to last year’s headline rate of CPI inflation.
This relatively benign medium-term outlook for CPI inflation should convince the MPC that they do not need to strangle the economy by raising Bank Rate all the way to 4%, as markets currently anticipate.
Updated
Here’s our full story on inflation:
Larry Elliott and Richard Partington on our economics team have also looked at what the Queen’s death and funeral next week mean for the economy.
Britain’s fragile economy was already teetering on the edge of recession even before the death of Queen Elizabeth II last week. That prospect now looms a lot larger, as businesses cancel events amid the period of national mourning culminating in the bank holiday for the late monarch’s funeral.
Economists say high street shops closing their doors or operating reduced hours on Monday, alongside the loss of a full working day, will lead to a sharp fall in output at a time when Britain is struggling for growth momentum amid the cost of living crisis.
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September’s consumer prices index (out in mid-October) is important, as it will be used by the government as the basis for increases to benefits and pensions next April.
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“Miscellaneous goods and services” such as hairdressing, toiletries and cosmetics, jewellery, insurance, and financial services recorded a 4.6% rate, up from 4% in July and the highest since September 2005. The biggest price rises came from appliances and products for personal care.
Clothing and footwear prices rose by 7.6% in the year to August, up from 6.6% in July. Prices normally rise at this time of year as the autumn ranges enter the shops following the summer sales season, although the Covid pandemic affected the usual pattern in the last two years.
The increase was mainly driven by men’s and women’s clothing, where prices rose between July and August but fell between the same two months a year ago.
Food prices rise at fastest rate since 2008
Bringing some relief for drivers, the annual rate for motor fuels eased from 43.7% to 32.1% between July and August. This is mainly a result of petrol prices falling by 14.3 pence per litre between these months, compared with a 2p rise a year ago. Diesel prices also contributed to the change in the rate, falling by 11.3p per litre this year.
However, food and non-alcoholic drinks prices rose at an annual rate of 13.1% in August, up from 12.7% in July, marking the highest rate since August 2008. The largest upward effect came from milk, cheese and eggs.
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UK inflation eases to 9.9% but remains close to 40-year high – business live
Inflation in the UK eased slightly in August, falling to an annual rate of 9.9% from 10.1% in July, easing the pressure on households somewhat – but remained close to the highest rate in 40 years.
Inflation eased because of a monthly fall in petrol and diesel prices while food and clothing became more expensive. Economists had expected a further small rise to 10.2% in the headline rate.
Prices rose by 0.5% in August from July, according to the Office for National Statistics. It said:
Food and non-alcoholic beverages made the largest upward contribution to the monthly rates in August 2022, while falling prices for motor fuels resulted in a large offsetting downward contribution.
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Introduction: UK inflation forecast to remain in double digits
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.
It’s inflation day in the UK. Inflation is forecast to have ticked up to 10.2% in August, from 10.1% in July, marking a fresh 40-year high, as energy and food prices have jumped in recent months.
The core rate, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, is expected to have risen to 6.3% from 6.2%. The Office for National Statistics is due to release the figures at 7am BST.
It would be only the fifth time in 70 years that inflation has breached the 10% threshold, the other periods being 1951-52, 1973-77 and 1979-82.
The Bank of England has forecast that inflation will rise above 13% in coming months and trigger a long recession as families and businesses rein in their spending.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says:
Last week’s decision by the UK government to freeze energy bills at the April price cap level should limit the worst predictions for headline CPI [consumer prices index], however it won’t change the fact that inflation is likely to remain persistent for longer.
Stock markets in Europe, the US and Asia plunged after US inflation remained stubbornly high in August at 8.3% yesterday, down slightly from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June, the highest rate in four decades.
Despite the declining headline rate, the details of the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rising across a wide range of goods and services and triggered a sharp selloff on Wall Street, the worst since June 2020. In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed 1.17% lower while Germany’s Dax fell 1.6%.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both lost 2.7% overnight while the Australian market was down 2.4%.
This means that the US market is now anticipating that the US Federal Reserve will dish out another 75 basis point interest rate hike next week, and there’s even a chance of a 100 basis point hike.
Hewson says:
It’s certainly not a number that Fed officials are going to be happy with and will merely serve to reinforce Powell’s message that the Fed will keep at it on raising rates until there is clear evidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward path.
A 100bps move would send completely the wrong message, implying a knee-jerk response on the basis of a single month, and potentially spook the market even more than we saw yesterday.
It’s more certain than ever we get another 75bps next week, with the potential for two more 50bps moves in November and December, which would put the Fed funds rate at 4.25% by year end.
The Agenda
8am BST: European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen speech
9am BST: International Energy Agency oil market report
10am BST: Industrial production for July
1.30pm BST: US producer prices for August
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