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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

FTSE 100 jumps 1.75% after Japan calms rate rise fears – as it happened

United States United Kingdom Shinichi Uchida Japan BOJ Halifax (Organization)
The City of London financial district.
The City of London financial district. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

European markets recover as BoJ calms markets

European markets have also rebounded today.

Germany’s DAX has closed nearly 1.5% higher, while France’s CAC gained 1.9%.

Wall Street is holding its earlier gains too, where the S&P 500 is around 1% higher at midday in New York.

Bank of Japan deputy governor Shinichi Uchida’s speech overnight – saying the BoJ would not hike rates when markets are unstable – has given a proverbial “green light” to carry traders to resume shorting the yen and buying higher-yielding currencies and assets, says Matthew Weller, global head of research at FOREX.com and City Index.

He adds:

Not surprisingly, traders have reined in their expectations for BOJ tightening this year, and are now pricing in only an outside chance of any additional interest rate increases from the central bank this year.

That’s probably all from us today. Goodnight! GW

Today’s rally, and the small gains yesterday, mean the FTSE 100 has almost recovered its losses from Monday (when it fell 2%).

But as this graph shows, shares also slid last Friday after a weak US jobs report.

So far this month, the index is down around 2.3%.

FTSE 100 jumpst 1.75%

Newsflash: Britain’s stock market has posted its best day in over four months.

Share have rallied in the UK as global markets have recovered some of their recent losses, thanks to reassuring comments from the Bank of Japan overnight.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 index has just closed 140 points higher at 8,167 points, up 1.75% today. That’s its biggest percentage gain since 21 March.

Financial stocks led the London rally, followed by energy firms – as the oil price recovered – and industrial stocks.

The pledge from BoJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida that the central bank will not hike interest rates when markets are unstable calmed worries of another rise in borrowing costs, which had sent the yen soaring and destabilised markets.

Fears that a US recession is close are also fading.

As analysts at TS Lombard put it:

The economic data aren’t bad enough to support the magnitude of the sell-off.

Bensons for Beds buys 19 former Carpetright shops

Bensons for Beds has swooped on Carpetright following its collapse, by snapping up 19 of its stores.

The bed specialist said it hopes to start trading from the first former Carpetright shop “within the next few months”.

Nick Collard, Bensons chief executive, said:

“Increasing the number of Bensons stores remains a key growth priority and we are excited about this opportunity to take on 19 store units.

“Today’s announcement supports our overall plan to expand our current 162-strong store estate to over 200 over the next few years.”

has snapped up 19 Carpetright stores after the collapse of the carpet retailer.

Carpetright collapsed last month, with the loss of around 1,500 jobs, after being hit by weak consumer spending, lower home sales and a cyber-attack.

Speaking of oil…..US crude stocks fell last week while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, new data from the Energy Information Administration shows.

The EIA reports that crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels to 429.3 million barrels in the week to 2 August; analysts had expected a smaller fall, of 700,000 barrels.

Oil prices are continuing to rise, with Brent crude now up 2% at $78 per barrel.

Oil prices are receiving support from growing concerns about supply shortages and disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reports Rania Gule, senior market analyst at XS.com.

Gule adds:

Particularly, Hamas announced yesterday the appointment of Yahya Sinwar as its new leader in Gaza following the assassination of former political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh.

There are fears of a potential escalation in the region, as Iran and its allies have vowed to retaliate against Israel and the United States for Haniyeh’s death. This might provide some short-term fundamental support for oil prices.

The broader picture is that most global stock markets are still up for the year.

The UK’s FTSE 100 has gained 5% since the start of January, while the US S&P 500 is up over 11% for 2024.

US Big Tech stocks rally

Technology stocks are among the risers on Wall Street, as markets continue to stabilise.

Salesforce.com (+3%), Amazon.com (+2.5%), Apple (+2.27%) and Microsoft (+2.2%) are among the top risers on the Dow Jones industrial average.

Updated

Stocks are pushing higher in London too – where the FTSE 100 index is now up 1.6% at 8155 points.

Airbnb shares drop 14%

Airbnb is not invited to the rally, though.

Shares in Airbnb have slumped by 14%, after it reported signs of slowing demand from U.S. customers, and missed analyst expectations for its second-quarter earnings last night.

Wall Street opens higher

Ding, ding goes the opening bell on the New York stock exchange…

…and up, up go stocks!

The Dow Jones industrial average, which contains 30 large US companies, is up 0.6% at 39,231 points, a rise of 233 points.

The broader S&P 500 index has gained more than 1%…. and the tech-focused Nasdaq has jumped by 1.5%.

US investors are clearly cheered by the news that the Bank of Japan is wary of further interest rate rises in the current climate.

After some recent volatility, the pound is a little calmer today.

Sterling is up 0.2% against the US dollar at $1.2712, having hit a five-week low of $1.267 yesterday.

It’s also gained almost 2% against the yen, at ¥186.92 to the pound.

With 30 minutes to go until trading begins, Wall Street is heading for a rally….

Demand from Americans for for new home loans, and for remortgaging deals, surged last week after borrowing costs dropped.

Total mortgage application volume rose 6.9% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

Analyst: Markets are stabilising

Risk appetite has improved a little further today, thanks largely to the lack of any “major bearish news”, reports Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com

With the economic calendar also being light, investors are making a more sober assessment of the events over the past week or so and are realising that there may have been a bit of an overreaction to the Bank of Japan’s larger than expected policy tightening last week that triggered all the volatility as investors were forced to unwind carrying trades.

That’s not to say we are completely out of the woods just yet. But there’s at least some stabilisation in the markets, which should allow some markets to re-align with the fundamentals.

Walt Disney earnings beat market estimates, but profit slips at parks

Walt Disney has beaten Wall Street expectations in its latest financial results, despite a decline in earnings from its theme parks.

Disney reported a rise in revenues in the last quarter to $23.2bn, up from $22.3bn a year earlier.

This helped the company return to profit, with pre-tax income of $3.1bn, up from a $100m loss in Q2 2023.

Operating profits at its Entertainment unit more than doubled. That was partly due to the success of animated Pixar film “Inside Out 2”, which Disney says grossed more than $1.5bn globally, making it the most successful animated film ever.

But incomes from Disney’s Experiences arm, including theme parks, fell 3%.

Shares in Disney are 0.3% higher in pre-market trading.

Garry White, chief investment commentator at Charles Stanley, says:

“Walt Disney’s third-quarter results beat market expectations and management raised earnings guidance for the full-year. Its combined streaming service was profitable – and this profitability is expected to improve in the current quarter following price rises. Disney’s studio business performed well, with Inside out 2 and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes both being high grossing films.

These are not ‘Mickey Mouse’ numbers, but markets are currently jittery and are focusing on the negative. Although the statement was upbeat, news from the Magic Kingdom was not so magical. A slowdown at its iconic theme parks following a surge following the Covid-19 pandemic likely to continue for the next few quarters, with income expected to decline year on year in the fourth quarter.

Updated

Lunchtime catch-up

Time for a quick catch-up on the markets.

Shares have rallied on Asia-Pacific bourses, and across Europe, after a senior Bank of Japan policymaker tried to calm fears of further interest rates rises.

Japan’s Nikkei continued its recovery from its slump on Monday, gaining 1.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained almost 1.4% and South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.15%.

In Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 index is now up 90 points, or 1.13%, adding to earlier gains as traders anticipate a rally on Wall Street.

Germany’s DAX is 1.25% higher and France’s CAC has jumped by 1.6%.

Shares picked up after Bank of Japan’s deputy governor Shinichi Uchida indicated the BoJ would not hike interest rates when markets are unstable.

Uchida told businss leaders tht the volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets means “it is necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being”.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at fintech and financial services provider Trade Nation says Uchida’s comments dampened fears that the BOJ would rush to raise rates further, after last week’s bigger-than-expected hike which preceded the recent stock market rout.

Morrison adds:

The speech has helped to soften the yen and give back some of last month’s outsized gains. That should take some pressure off those still exposed to the yen carry-trade, of which there are still significant numbers.

The US Dollar Index is firmer this morning, thanks mainly to the weaker yen, and also a pick-up in US bond yields. European stock indices were all stronger in early trade. Tensions have eased to some extent, and bargain hunters are out there looking for beaten down equities. But as with every earth-moving event, it’s sensible to prepare for aftershocks.

Wall Street is set to open higher today.

In the futures market, the S&P 500 index is on track for a 1.2% rise, with the tech-focused Nasdaq 1.4% higher.

The oil price is also recovering today, with Brent crude up 1.5% at $77,64 per barrel.

That lifts it away from Monday’s low of $75/barrel, the weakest since the start of January.

The rally in markets today could show that investors have been snapping up bargains, after the sharp fall in stock prices.

Pruksa Iamthongthong, deputy head of APAC equities at abrdn, reckons the recent “indiscriminate selling in Asia” has created opportunities, especially in the tech sector.

Iamthongthong tells clients:

The tech sector has borne the brunt of the sell-off in Asia, owing to spillover nervousness over the elevated valuations of AI-related stocks in the US.
The US tech sector has been due a correction, given that the Magnificent 7 had been bought up significantly on promise of huge payoffs from AI. While AI commercialisation remains unclear, their share prices will be more exposed to shifts in sentiment.

In contrast, fundamentals for Asian techs stocks are sounder. Investors are overlooking non-AI earnings streams which are in an upcycle, notably memory.

Valuations for Asian tech stocks are also “far more palatable” compared to their US peers, Iamthongthong adds:

The MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index Information Technology Index is trading at a 12M forward PE of 15x, versus around 24x for Nasdaq and 26x for the S&P 500 Info Tech Index.

The FTSE 250 index, which contains medium-sized companies, is also recovering today.

The FTSE 250 – seen as a better barometer of the UK economy than the FTSE 100 – is up 0.9% today, adding to a 0.65% rise yesterday.

That follows a 2.95% drop on Friday, and another 2.8% on Monday, as markets were hit by the unravelling of the ‘yen carry trade’, and fears of a US recession.

London’s stock market (still up almost 1%) has “taken succour” from a continued recovery in Asian and US stocks overnight, says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Mould explains:

“Although with warnings that the unwinding of carry trades – seeing people borrow at low cost in one currency to achieve higher returns from investments in another – are still to fully play out, there remains an air of tension around financial markets.

“Helping to provide at least a measure of calm was the Bank of Japan. Deputy governor Shinichi Uchida signalled there was no plan to increase interest rates further ‘for the time being’ after the yen surged on the second Japanese rate hike in 17 years last week.

Updated

"Harami" pattern suggests Nikkei selloff is over

Technical analysts reckon the slump in Japanese stocks is over, for now at least.

They’ve spotted that Tuesday’s trading in Toyko formed a pattern called a “harami” – where the daily highs and lows were within the previous day’s levels. That indicates the bottom of the selloff has been reached.

On a daily trading chart, a bullish harami forms a candlestick whose body is located within the range of the previous day’s stick (showing how high and low the market traded each day).

Bloomberg says the harami suggests investor sentiment has shifted from one that’s dominated by pessimism to one that’s a tug-of-war between bears and bulls, adding:

When a bullish harami sign appeared on March 16, 2011 following the plunge after the tsunami and Fukushima nuclear meltdown, the Nikkei climbed 10% over the next month and a half.

Updated

WPP sells stake in FGS Global to KKR

Major advertising group WPP has agreed to sell its majority stake in strategic financial PR company FGS Global for £604m.

The deal will see WPP offload its 50% stake to current minority shareholder KKR, the US-based private equity firm, which will now own 80% of the company when the deal is completed.

Mark Read, chief executive of WPP, said the sale represented an excellent outcome for WPP after building it to become a world-leading communications company.

He added:

“This also provides WPP with greater financial and management flexibility as we continue to grow our core business including Burson and Ogilvy Public Relations which give our clients access to world-class public relations services.”

WPP’s share price has dropped by 1.6% today off the back of the news.

FGS was formed through a merger between London-based Finsbury, Frankfurt-based Hering Schuppener and Washington DC-based Glover Park Group. It now has nearly 30 offices and 1,600 clients around the world.

The agreement of the deal comes after the Financial Times reported in June that WPP had rejected a previous bid by KKR to buy FGS, with the offer being dismissed for being too low.

Maersk: Red Sea crisis hurting global supply chains

The Red Sea crisis is leading to “continued pressure on global supply chains”, shipping giant Maersk told investors today.

Maersk has grown its EBIT profit margin to 7.5% in the second quarter of this year, up from 1.4% in the first quarter.

Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, says:

“Market demand has been strong, and as we have all seen, the situation in the Red Sea remains entrenched, which leads to continued pressure on global supply chains.

These conditions are now expected to continue for the remainder of the year.”

Last week, Maersk upgraded its financial guidance for this year – citing the prolonging of the crisis in the Red Sea and a continued robust market demand.

That crisis has forced container ships to be rerouted around southern Africa to avoid the Suez canal, forcing up shipping rates.

Maersk also reported today that the global economy maintained solid growth momentum in Q2, with mild recoveries in Western Europe and emerging markets, and strong growth in the US.

It added:

US goods demand grew 2% y/y in Q2, an acceleration from Q1. A healthy, albeit cooling labour market, and wage gains are expected to continue to support US consumers. Declining consumer confidence and savings, however, are clouds at the horizon.

Updated

The stock market recovery in London is gathering pace.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 share index has now clambered back over the 8,100-point mark, for the first time since it tumbled below it on Monday morning.

That’s a gain of 73 points, or 0.9%, so far today.

Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk has missed sales expectations this morning, despite strong demand for its popular weight loss drugs.

Novo Nordisk grew its sales by 25% in the first half of this year, to 133.4bn Danish crowns (£15.4bn), with profits up 19% to 57.8bn Danish crowns.

But in the second quarter, operating profit rose 8% at constant exchange rates to 25.9bn Danish crowns, below the 27.3bn forecast by analysts in a LSEG poll, Reuters reports.

Novo Nordisk raised its sales growth forecast for 2022 to between 22% and 28% in local currencies, compared to the previously guided range for 19% to 27% growth.

Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, president and CEO, says:

“We are pleased with the sales growth in the first half of 2024, which has enabled us to raise the outlook for the full year.

The growth is driven by the increased demand for our GLP-1-based diabetes and obesity treatments, and we continue to reach more patients with our innovative treatments.”

But…. Novo Nordisk has also lowered its expectations for operating profit growth, to 20-28%, down from 22-30% forecast in May.

That downgrade is partly due to a 5.7bn Danish crown impairment charge on its ocedurenone drug, for chronic kidney disease, which failed to pass trials this year.

Shares in Novo Nordisk’s share price have dropped by 6.5% in early trading.

Sheena Berry, healthcare analyst at Quilter Cheviot, says:

“The story of the last 18 months for Novo Nordisk has been the success of its key drugs, Ozempic, which is approved for type 2 diabetes, and Wegovy, the group’s obesity drug.

However, both actually missed expectations, with Wegovy in particular struggling due to rebate adjustments. This has weighed on the share price.

Updated

Most stocks are up in London, where the FTSE 100 risers are led by NatWest bank (+2.3%)

European stock markets have joined the rally.

In London, the FTSE 100 share index has gained 43 points or 0.5% to 8068 points.

That adds to Tuesday’s small gains, after the Footsie hit its lowest level since April on Monday.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index also jumped 0.5% at the open, with France’s CAC 0.3% higher, Germany’s DAX up 0.4% and Spain’s IBEX 0.6% highe.

Michael Brown, market analyst at Pepperstone, says risk appetite continues to steady, as market jitters are soothed by overnight comments from BoJ deputy governor Uchida that policymakers shan’t raise rates when markets appear “unstable”.

Brown added:

While such a comment doesn’t sound the ‘all clear’ for participants to load back up on the carry trade, the significant risk-on reaction to the remarks evidences how markets continue to chase a more dovish policy response from G10 central banks, even if OIS-implied pricing for over 100bp of Fed cuts this year continues to look over-the-top.

UK growth faster than thought.... in 2022

Historic news: Britain’s economy grew more strongly than previously thought in 2022.

UK GDP grew by 4.8% in 2022, up from a previous estimate of 4.3%, new data from the Office for National Statistics shows.

The ONS says:

Growth in the transport, professional and business support services industries is revised up in 2022 and contributes to the overall upward revision to volume GDP growth; this is partially offset by downward revisions to growth in the manufacturing and healthcare industries.

Updated

Asia=Pacific markets rally after BoJ 'blinks'

Asia-Pacific stock markets are a reassuring sea of green today, after Bank of Japan’s deputy governor Shinichi Uchida played down fears of further interest rate rises (see opening post).

Japan’s Nikkei’s 225 index has closed 1.2% higher today, up 414 points at 35,089, while the broader Topix index has gained 2.2%.

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi index is up 2.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has gained 1.37% so far today.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is up a modest 0.25%.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, explains that the prospect of more stable markets in Japan has boosted equity prices broadly.

Rodda says:

The Bank of Japan has effectively blinked.

The turmoil in Japanese markets has shaken the central bank’s confidence that it can tighten much further without damaging not only its own markets and economy but also the rest of the world’s.

BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida said the central bank wouldn’t cut rates in times of market instability, all but boxing itself into a corner where any bias towards hiking interest rates would be self limiting by the subsequent volatility that would likely ignite.

The Japanese Yen dropped on the comments, adding fuel to the Nikkei’s recovery and supporting risk appetite across the globe.

Ofwat to appoint independent monitor for Thames Water

UK regulator Ofwat has declared it intends to appoint an independent monitor for troubled supplier Thames Water.

This monitor will supervise the company’s turnaround plan and report back to the regulator on Thames’ progress.

The monitor would have access to the company’s financial information, and the appointment comes after Thames Water’s credit rating was downgraded twice by ratings agencies Moody’s and S&P in July – which meant the company had breached its licence.

David Black, chief executive of Ofwat, said:

“We are clear that Thames Water needs to remedy its licence breach, turnaround its operational performance and secure backing from investors to restore its loss of investment grade credit rating.

These enforceable commitments will include our putting an independent Monitor into the business, to report back to us on what is happening to drive meaningful change in performance, and to ensure appropriate expertise is added to their Board.

We will continue to monitor progress very closely and will not hesitate to take any further action if necessary.”

House prices rise: What the experts say

Estate agents report that rising confidence, and lower mortgage rates, helped house prices rise last month.

Matt Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons, says:

“Despite uncertainty about what the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates cuts was going to be on 1 August, July’s property market still saw an increase in buyer activity.

This buyer confidence was not only boosted by the General Election results but also by lenders introducing more attractive mortgage products with sub-4% rates.”

Here’s Sam Mitchell, CEO of Purplebricks:

“The growing confidence we’ve seen take hold of the housing market in recent weeks has been supercharged by the Bank of England’s interest rate cut. With lenders already slashing mortgage rates in response to last week’s decision, buyers are beginning to move ahead with purchasing decisions they have been putting off for months.

However, the rental market is still a complete mess and there is a significant way to go before the outlook can be said to be as positive for prospective homeowners. The focus for the coming months must be lowering the barriers to homeownership for first-time-buyers, which will only be achieved by Labour pushing forward with its plans to ‘get Britain building’.”

Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, cautions that cheaper mortgages could lead to higher house prices:

“With an unexpectedly busy start to August in our offices, the long-awaited cut in interest rates and removal of any election uncertainty has clearly gone down very well with prospective buyers and sellers.

“The hot, sunny weather, combined with buyers who may have delayed their plans now wanting to get on with their moves this year, is boosting activity and enquiries. People have long been talking about the prospect of rate cuts and now the first of these is a reality, we are hopeful this activity will continue into the autumn.

“However, buyers need to be careful what they wish for as cheaper mortgages will almost certainly mean higher asking prices. If we see a flurry of new applicants coming back to the market, encouraged by cheaper mortgage rates, then these higher prices are likely to be achieved.”

Financial experts have been surprised by the size of the jump in UK house prices last month.

Economists had expected a rise of 0.2% or 0.3% – not the 0.8% increase reported by Halifax this morning.

The regional house price picture

Halifax’s report shows that Northern Ireland recorded the strongest annual house price growth in the UK last month.

Northern Ireland house prices rose by 5.8% on an annual basis in July, the highest increase since February 2023, to an average of £195,681.

In Wales, house prices grew 3.4%, while in Scotland they gained 2.1% over the last year.

But at the other end of the table, Eastern England was the only region or nation to record a fall across the UK – down 0.4%.

House prices in the North West of England grew by 4.1%, while in London they gained 1.2%.

UK house prices rise in July

UK house prices have jumped faster than expected, prompting a forecast they will keep rising through 2024.

New data from lender Halifax, just released, shows that house prices increased by 0.8% in July, following three relatively flat months.

That has lifted the average house price to £291,268, up from £289,042 in June.

Over the last year, prices have risen by 2.3%, Halifax reports, the fastest annual growth rate since January 2024.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, predicts prices will trend higher through the year, helped by last week’s cut in UK interest rates:

“Last week’s Bank of England’s Base Rate cut, which follows recent reductions in mortgage rates, is encouraging for those looking to remortgage, purchase a first home or move along the housing ladder. However, affordability constraints and the lack of available properties continue to pose challenges for prospective homeowners.

Against the backdrop of lower mortgage rates and potential further Base Rate reductions, we anticipate house prices to continue a modest upward trend throughout the remainder of this year.”

Introduction: BOJ deputy governor plays down chance of near-term rate hike

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The jitters that have gripped the financial markets for days are easing this morning, after one of Japan’s top central bankers tried to calm fears of further interest rate rises.

BoJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida has said the BoJ should leave interest rates at current levels, having surprisingly raised them last week – a hike that helped to trigger days of market turmoil.

Uchida told business leaders in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate:

“As we’re seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets, it’s necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being.”

Uchida added that the recent strengthening of the yen will also affect the BOJ’s policy decision-making – a stronger currency reduces upward pressure on import prices, meaning less need to tighten policy more.

The yen surged after last week’s rate rise, dealing a painful blow to investors who were engaged in the yen carry trade – borrowing cheaply in Japan to buy assets elsewhere.

But it has fallen by 2% today, dropping to ¥147/$ from ¥144/$ yesterday.

The unwinding of the carry trade triggered margin calls, leading to the wave of selling we’ve seen since last Wednesday.

JP Morgan analyst Arindam Sandilya warned yesterday that this process was probably only half over, as Japan had looked likely to continue raising rates.

So Uchida’s comments have had a reassuring impact; Japan’s Nikkei has jumped by 2,2%, up 759 points in late trading at 35,434 points, adding Tuesday’s 10% jump (which followed a 12.4% plunge on Monday).

European markets are set to rally too, by around 1%.

The agenda

  • 7am BST: German trade balance for June

  • 7am BST: Halifax house price index for July

  • Noon BST: US weekly mortgage application data

  • 3.30pm BST: EIA oil stocks data

Updated

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