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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK and US manufacturing sectors shrink as new orders fall and prices rise – as it happened

Post Office Nigel Railton United States United Kingdom Henry Staunton Kemi Badenoch Nationwide Robert Gardner the Post Office
Hansom Cement factory works' chimney , as seen from the River Ribble.
Hansom Cement factory works' chimney, as seen from the River Ribble. Photograph: Joel Goodman/The Guardian

Closing post

That’s all for today. Our US colleagues will be covering the Federal Reserve decision in a couple of hours…

Here’s today’s main stories:

“Sell in May and go away” is a well-known City motto.

After a choppy, and rather quiet day, the London stock market has closed slightly in the red.

The FTSE 100 has ended the session down 22 points at 8121 points. That takes it away from the alltime high of 8199.95 points struck yesterday morning.

Trading was subdued due to Europe being closed for Labour Day.

Ocado was the top faller, down 3%, tracking losses in US teck stocks.

GSK was among the top risers, up 1.67%, after lifting its profit forecast (see earlier post).

Stocks on Wall Street are mixed today, after today’s PMI report showed US manufacturing shrinking.

The S&P 500 index of US stocks has lost 0.25%, dipping by 12 points to 5,022.8 points.

The Dow Jones industrial average, though, has nudged up by 0.2%.

US manufacturing contracted in April as March rebound fades

America’s factories have mirrored their UK counterparts, by shrinking last month.

Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in April, the latest survey from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) shows. That reverses the expansion recorded in March, which followed a 16-month slump.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2 percent in April, down 1.1 percentage points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March – and below the 50-point mark showing stagnation.

Firms reported a drop in new orders last month.

There are also signs that inflation pressures are building.

The Prices Index component of the index jumped to 60.9 percent, up from 55.8 percent in March, driven by a rise in costs for commodity prices such as crude oil, aluminum, steel and plastic.

The survey shows that US manufacturing is “struggling for momentum”, says Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

Brown told clients:

The fall in the ISM manufacturing index back below the theoretical 50.0 no-change level in April suggests that the nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector may already have gone into reverse.

While the further rise in the prices paid index to a 22-month high looks concerning, that largely reflects the rise in oil prices at the start of the month, which has since been fully reversed.

US job openings held steady in March

US job openings were little changed in March compared with February, new data shows, suggesting demand for workers is stabilizing at an elevated level.

There were 8.5 million job openings on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That’s slightly lower than a month earlier, when there were 8.8m vacancies.

The number of hires “changed little”, according to the latest JOLTS report, at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2m.

Around 3.3 million workers quit their jobs, down from 3.5 million in February, while while 1.5 million were laid off or discharged, down from 1.68 million a month earlier.

Environmental activists have disrupted the start of Unilever’s annual general meeting in London today, in a protest over plastic pollution.

They are urging Unilever CEO Hein Schumacher to take action on their plastic pollution problem, particularly at its personal care brand Dove.

Greenpeace UK members used a confetti cannon to fire a shower of black paper Doves raining over the Unilever board. One protestor told the executives that they were “chief plastic polluters”, and that a letter calling on Unilever and its cosmetics division Dove to ditch single-use plastic had 140,000 signatories.

Greenpeace are calling on Unilever to stop sachet sales now, and phase out single-use plastic within 10 years.

Here’s a video clip from the AGM:

Nina Schrank, head of plastics at Greenpeace UK said:

“From palm oil to plastic pollution, Unilever can’t hide from the Real Harm they’re causing. Whilst products like Dove help Unilever rake in billions, the real cost is paid by communities far from today’s AGM. But civil society and impacted communities are here today to tell them this has to end - it’s time to change.

This is not the time to backpedal. Schumacher needs to be reducing plastic waste, not his waste targets. They must stop selling plastic sachets now, commit to phasing out single-use plastic within a decade and advocate for this same level of ambition at UN Global Plastics Treaty negotiations.”

Updated

Barclays cutting hundreds of underperforming investment bankers

Bosses at Barclays are swinging the job cutting axe, Reuters reports (and on Labour Day too!).

The bank is cutting a “a few hundred roles” in a round of redundancies aimed at tackling “underperformers” and reinvesting in new talent.

Barclays said in February it was planning to cut costs by £2bn.

Staff impacted by the job cuts are said to be based in the bank’s global markets, investment banking and research division.

A Barclays spokesperson has described the cuts as ‘difficult, but necessary’, saying:

“As previously reported, we regularly review our talent pool to ensure that we can invest in talent and deliver for clients.

“This is difficult, but necessary, to ensure we position ourselves for long-term success as we execute against our strategy.”

US private sector adds more jobs than expected

UK job creation remained strong last month, new data shows, despite the burden of higher interest rates.

Payroll operator ADP has reported that private company payrolls increased by 192,000 in April, more than the 175,000 which economists expected.

“Hiring was broad-based in April,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP, adding:

“Only the information sector – telecommunications, media, and information technology – showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021.”

Services firms raised their payrolls by 145,000, while manufacturers took on 47,000 workers.

Pay rose by 5%, down from 5.1%.

Pay growth for job-changers fell from 10.1% in March to 9.3%, but remains higher than it was at the beginning of the year, ADP adds.

J&J proposes $6.5bn settlement to resolve talcum powder lawsuits

Johnson & Johnson is proposing a $6.5bn settlement to conclude tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that its baby powder and other talc products contain asbestos and cause ovarian cancer.

J&J says the proposal would resolve 99.75% of the pending talc lawsuits, and bring its total payout to $11bn.

Erik Haas, worldwide vice president of litigation at Johnson & Johnson, says:

“The Plan is the culmination of our consensual resolution strategy that we announced last October.

Since then, the Company has worked with counsel representing the overwhelming majority of talc claimants to bring this litigation to a close, which we expect to do through this plan.”

Under the plan, J&J’s subsidiary, LLT Management, would file a consensual “prepackaged” Chapter 11 bankruptcy, if 75% of claimants vote in favor of the Plan.

J&J says the offer, which would be paid over 25 years, is “a far better recovery than the claimants stand to recover at trial”.

Last year, a US judge rejected a proposal under which J&J would have paid $8.9bn to settle lawsuits, premised on a bankruptcy court order that would have stopped future lawsuits from being filed against the company.

Mulberry, the luxury British brand best known for its leather handbags that can cost more than £1,600 each, has reported a 4% decline in annual sales, becoming the latest high-end company to warn of a slowdown in spending among the richest shoppers.

In a trading update, Thierry Andretta, the chief executive, said:

“While we achieved positive revenue growth in the first half, Mulberry has not been immune to the broader downturn in luxury spending experienced in recent months, particularly in the UK and Asia. This decline was partially offset by positive trading in the US, where we have benefited from increased brand awareness.

“Looking ahead, the trading environment in the UK and China remains challenging and we do not expect this to change in the short-term. We are therefore managing the business prudently, focusing on executing our strategy and vision to become a global sustainable luxury brand.”

Tusk: Poles will be wealthier than the British by 2029

Today is the 20th anniversary of Poland joining the European Union.

And Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister (and former president of the European Council) has said that EU membership has been good for Poles – and that within five years, they’ll be wealthier than their counterparts in Britain.

Tusk posted on X today:

As we celebrate 20 years in the EU, a fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that income per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025. And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be wealthier than the British. It’s better to be in the EU!

Last year, Labour leader Keir Starmer warned that Britian was on a trajectory that will soon see it overtaken by Poland, citing World Bank data.

The BBC reported at the time:

It [Labour] said UK GDP per capita grew at an average annual rate of 0.5% in real terms between 2010 and 2021, while Poland’s grew 3.6%, (based on World Bank data).

If those trends continued, by 2030 people in the UK would each be £500 ($600) poorer than Poland’s population, Labour said, and by 2040 would have fallen behind Hungary and Romania.

Britain is still adjusting to Brexit; yesterday, food importers warned that newly introduced checks could increase their costs by up to 60%, pushing up prices for customers and driving some shops out of business.

However, there is still rather a large cap in GDP per capita between the UK and Poland, although it is narrowing, according to this chart on the World Bank’s site today:

Updated

Over on Wall Street, Yum Brands – the company behind Pizza Hut, KFC and Taco Bell – has reported a drop in profits and like-for-like sales, highlighting the squeeze on consumers.

Yum Brands missed expectations by reporting a 3% drop in same-store sales in the first quarter of this year, with GAAP operating profit declining by 1%.

David Gibbs, CEO, said:

“Despite a difficult operating environment, we delivered 6% Core Operating Profit growth demonstrating the resilience of our business model.

As expected, same-store sales were pressured this quarter, but we are encouraged by strong 2-year same-store sales growth and positive momentum exiting the quarter.”

For the first time, more than half of Yum’s sales were digital, with almost $8bn of sales made electronically.

The fact that UK manufacturers are hiking prices (see 10.21am) should not necessarily delay an interest rate cut, argues Professor Costas Milas of the Management School at the University of Liverpool.

He tells us:

What escaped attention is fresh Divisia money data. Divisia money, as a measure of liquidity, is a powerful predictor of future inflation.

The latest data suggests that Divisia money contracted by 6.2% per annum in 2024Q1. Admittedly, the annual contraction has just started reversing faster than before. This should not be a problem for inflation since Divisia money growth is still in deep negative territory.

In my view, inflation is likely to drop well below the 2% target before divisia money growth turns positive.

Photos: It's International Workers’ Day

Activists have taken to the streets in cities across Asia and Europe today to mark International Workers’ Day.

As is traditional, the first day of May is Labour Day – a time to call for improved rights for workers, and to protest over issues such as rising prices and government labour policies.

And in Istanbul, protesters have clashed with riot police

Updated

Flutter shareholders back listing move from London to US

Newsflash: One of the London stock market’s major blue-chip members is shifting its primary listing across the Atlantic.

Sharesholders in Flutter have backed a proposal to move the primary listing of its shares from London to New York today, at its annual general meeting in Dublin.

The move comes after the world’s largest online betting company added a secondary listing in the United States.

The resolution to move to a primary U.S. listing was backed by 98% of shareholders, according to proxy votes tallied up at the company’s annual general meeting, Reuters reports. Flutter said in March that it expects the primary listing to become effective on May 31.

Flutter’s brands include Paddy Power, Betfair and PokerStars, as well as American gambling site FanDuel.

In January, it described the New York stock exchange as its “natural home”, with the stateside online sports betting boom meaning the US betting market is now Flutter’s largest by revenue.

Updated

Amid the furore over executive pay, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry – criticised as “excessive” by governance experts – GSK chief executive Emma Walmsley said today:

“Personally, I think I’m very well paid and I’m certainly not going to comment on the level of my own remuneration. That’s the responsibility of the board and they obviously set pay against published targets.

“The much more important thing for me to work on and comment on is how we make sure that GSK, the culture of our company, the prospects of our company, the career development opportunities at our company, are really as attractive and as globally competitive as they possibly can be. So that we can recruit and develop and retain the very, very best people and honestly, I am feeling really good about that, as I look at the ongoing strengthening of the leadership teams across the organisation.”

Walmsley’s pay package jumped by 50% to £12.7m last year, mainly because of a higher share bonus payout reflecting the British drugmaker’s improved performance.

Her counterpart at AstraZeneca, Pascal Soriot, was paid nearly £17m last year and is in line for a maximum of £18.7m this year, depending on the company’s performance. His pay package was approved recently despite a sizeable shareholder rebellion.

Geopolitical instability hurt UK factories last month, reports Caroline Litchfield, partner and head of manufacturing and supply chain sector at Brabners:

“Hopes of a recovery in the UK’s manufacturing sector will need to be put on ice for now, as March’s lift in activity proved an anomaly.

“Indeed, supply-side barriers including delays to raw material deliveries and high input cost rumble on.

“And while domestic demand has picked up, geopolitical instability has fractured supply chains globally – most notably with disruptions in the Red Sea causing congestion at Mediterranean ports – to restrict international orders.”

UK manufacturers hike prices - could rate cut be delayed?

The Bank of England may be concerned that today’s PMI report shows that manufacturers lifted their selling prices last month.

Output charge inflation hit an 11-month high, as factores passed on their rising costs to customers.

James Brougham, senior economist at Make UK, says:

“This is a reminder that growth prospects for manufacturers teeter on a knife’s edge.

More ominously there are indications that businesses are hiking their prices again at the fastest rate in over a year, outpacing any decision to soften the base rate from the Bank of England and highlighting that inflation can occur despite tightening monetary policy. The sector seems to be returning to the situation it found itself in only a year ago with low demand, high inflation and no clear route back to prosperity.

If supply-side inflation continues, it’s almost certain the Bank will delay any decision to lower rates, or even return to raising them in the extreme.”

Boudewijn Driedonks, partner at McKinsey & Company, is also concerned that price pressures are increasing:

The UK’s manufacturing sector experienced a modest pullback in April, breaking the trend of recovery and slipping back into contraction. Growth was hampered by lower output levels linked to weaker market conditions overall, which is also showing in a weaker labour market. The drop down to 49.1 is still only slightly below the magic 50 mark. The next few months will tell us if this flatlining is a true reversal of the recent recovery trend or not.

“Zooming out to the wider economy, we are seeing a story of two halves. The service sector remains strong, and April saw service sector firms accelerate growth to the strongest level for 11 months. This month’s PMI again emphasises that manufacturing is the weak link in the economy. There are also signs of possible price pressures building for the future - wage bills are growing, and input prices are increasing.

Dave Atkinson, SME & Mid Corporates head of manufacturing at Lloyds Bank, says:

“Manufacturers’ output falling back into contraction after a month of growth in March suggests the economic headwinds that have been affecting the sector this year are still bearing down on firms.

“Despite this fall, there is still cause for optimism. Inflation is slowly falling, which should help to boost demand and consumer confidence this year, and firms are benefitting from deepening their relationships with UK suppliers to minimise the impact of any future global supply chain shocks.

“Manufacturers have seen how global events can affect their output in recent years, so they’ll be keeping a close eye on further geopolitical tensions that could offset the sector’s positive outlook in the months ahead.”

UK manufacturing contracts as output and new orders drop and costs rise

Just in: UK manufacturing slipped back into contraction last month as output and new orders decline and cost pressures rise, the latest poll of factory purchasing managers has found.

Data provider S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.1 in April, down from March’s 20-month high of 50.3.

Any reading below 50 shows a contraction; this ‘final reading’ is slightly higher than the ‘flash’ of 48.7

The survey has found that uncertain market conditions and client destocking hit manufacturers, who also suffered supply-chain disruption due to the Red Sea crisis.

Worryingly, new orders fell, with manufacturers reporting weaker demand from both domestic and overseas customers. New export orders have now fallen for the last 27 successive months, with reports of weaker intakes from Germany, Ireland, Asia and the US.

Average purchasing costs rose for the fourth successive month in April, with factories reporting higher costs for energy, polymers, steel, textiles, timber and transportation.

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

The sector is still besieged by weak market confidence, client destocking and disruptions caused by the ongoing Red Sea crisis, all of which are contributing to reduced inflows of new work from domestic and overseas customers, with specific reports of difficulty securing new contract wins from Europe, the US and Asia.

This downturn is making manufacturers cautious, less keen to take on staff or to build up their stocks, says Dobson, adding:

The news on the prices front is also worrisome for those looking for a sustainable path back to target (consumer price) inflation, with cost pressures growing in industry and feeding through to higher selling prices at the factory gate.

Shares in Aston Martin are at the back of the pack on the London stock market this morning, after it reported widening losses.

The luxury carmaker made a pre-tax loss of £138.8m in the first quarter, 87% larger than the £74.2m it lost in the first three months of 2023.

Sales fell by a quarter, to 945 vehicles, which the optimistic-sounding chairman Lawrence Stroll attribues to the introduction of new models.

Stroll says:

“2024 is a year of immense product transformation at Aston Martin, with the introduction of four new models to the market before the end of the year. Our first quarter performance reflects this expected period of transition, as we ceased production and delivery of our outgoing core models ahead of the ramp up in production of the new Vantage, upgraded DBX707 and our upcoming V12 flagship sports car which we’ve confirmed today.

As part of our ongoing programme of ultra-exclusive models, we will deliver a new Special in the fourth quarter of the year.

Aston Martin has dropped to the bottom of the FTSE 250 leaderboard, down 7.6% at 137p.

High street retailer Next has reported better-than-expected first quarter sales, but cautioned that this probably won’t continue….

Next (no stranger to beating City forecasts) told shareholders that its full price sales in the last 13 weeks are up 5.7% versus last year, ahead of its guidance of 5% for the quarter.

But, Next cautions that sales in the second quarter of the year will be weaker than the first quarter, because in 2023 it benefitted from particularly warm weather from late May through to the end of June.

So, Next is sticking to its sales and profit guidance, with profit before tax forecast still to rise 4.6% to £960m.

Neil Shah, director of research at Edison Group, says Next’s sales performance is strong, adding:

The expectation of rising wages in the UK freeing up consumer spending on fashion bodes well for NEXT, whose performance is a closely watched indicator of consumer demand in the UK.

The reaffirmation of profit guidance underscores management’s confidence in sustaining momentum throughout the fiscal year.

Updated

UK house prices drop: what the experts say

Property experts have been digesting Nationwide’s data showing a 0.4% drop in house prices last month.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, agrees that rising mortgage costs are to blame:

“The house price growth seen in the first two months of this year is going into reverse as higher mortgage rates take their toll on demand. Borrowing costs have risen as a strong labour market means the prospect of a rate cut has become more remote.

There are added financial pressures in the system as a wave of owners roll off sub-2% mortgages agreed in early 2022.

We believe demand and house price growth will pick up later this year as a rate cut moves onto the horizon.”

Emma Fildes, property agent at Brickweaver, says the backtracking from lenders who have recently raised mortgage rates has hit the confidence of buyers:

Matt Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons, reports that the usual spring pick-up in activity came later this year (as did spring itself! Brrrrr).

Thompson says:

“The uplift in market activity typically associated with spring was slightly delayed this year but became more evident over the course of April. Compared to March, we saw an increase in the number of London house hunters which also led to sellers feeling more confident about putting their property up for sale.

Still, demand continued to outweigh supply in April which gave the majority of sellers the upper hand during price negotiations.”

And, of course, this house price data are volatile. And Peter Arnold, EY UK’s chief economist, argues we shouldn’t read too much into April’s drop:

The lenders’ house price series can be volatile from month-to-month, particularly in times when transaction levels are relatively low, making it harder to mix-adjust the data.

Just as the apparent strength in January/February looked out-of-keeping with fundamentals, the latest data is unlikely to mark the start of a renewed fall in property prices.

GSK hikes profit forecast thanks to vaccine demand

GSK has raised its 2024 profit forecast, with strong demand for its RSV and shingles vaccines.

Britain’s second-biggest drugmaker said it now expects a rise of 8% to 10% in annual adjusted earnings per share, up from the 6%-9% growth it had previously forecast. It expects its sales this year to rise in the upper end of its 5% to 7% forecast range.

Last year GSK launched its vaccine Arexvy for RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), an infection with cold-like symptoms that can lead to hospitalisation and death in elderly people, and uptake has been strong.

More than a fifth of adults in the US have received an RSV vaccine, either from GSK or Pfizer.

Under chief executive Emma Walmsley, the drugmaker has focused on vaccines and infectious diseases, cancer drugs and long-acting HIV therapies.

The company reported a 6% rise in sales to £7.4bn in the first three months of the year, better than the City had expected, and a profit before tax of £1.4bn, down from £1.9bn. Its core earnings per share of 43.1p came in above analysts’ expectations. Sales of the Shingrix jab for shingles climbed 18% to £900m.

Nigel Railton: from the Crewe station’s signal box to the Post Office

Nigel Railton has an impressive roster of experience to turn to, as he slides into the chairman’s seat at the Post Office, on an interim basis at least.

He’s currently the chair of Argentex, the currency management services business, after stepping down from Camelot after 24 years.

In 2018, he told The Times that as a boy in Crewe, there were three options after leaving school – working for Rolls-Royce, joining the railways or going on the dole. Railton took the second option, working as a “box lad” in the Crewe signal box at the age of 16.

Railton explained:

My job entailed booking a train. When a train left the station, you had to write it down in the book so that you could monitor the timeliness of the trains. I had to phone the station announcer and tell them the train was coming. Plus I had to make the tea and clean the signal box. That gives you a decent grounding in life.

He went on to become a railway accountant, followed by jobs at Black & Decker and Daewoo, before he joining Camelot.

Railton said the most important event of his working life was “moving from my home town of Crewe to Watford to study to be an accountant.

As well as running Argentex, he is also a trustee of the Social Mobility Foundation, which works to help young people who face structural barriers in education and work because of their socioeconomic background.

Nigel Railton named as Post Office interim chair

Nigel Railton, the former boss of National Lottery operator Camelot, has been named as the interim chairman of the Post Office.

Railton will succeed Henry Staunton, who was fired from his role in January, after barely a year in the job.

The Department for Business and Trade says Railton has “a wealth of experience in transforming organisations” – which he’ll need, as the inquiry into the Horizon scandal continues.

Railton will lead the Board of Directors and be invited to give Ministers his views on the future direction of the Post Office. But has he’s been named as ‘interim chair’, he may not be planning to do the job on a long-term basis.

Business secretary Kemi Badenoch says:

Nigel has the necessary experience to lead an organisation as large and complex as the Post Office and I’m confident he will work well with the leadership team to implement the change that is required in the organisation.

The Government is committed to delivering justice for the postmasters, but also fulfil our duties to Post Office staff. I want to thank Nigel for stepping up to public service at a time of need, and I know he can help fix the issues of the past whilst transforming the company for the future.

In February, Badenoch told the House of Commons that Staunton was being investigated over bullying allegations ahead of his dismissal; a week later, Staunton hit back, saying the victim of a “smear campaign”,

Updated

Introduction: UK house prices dip again

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK house prices dipped again in April, as rising borrowing costs made it harder for buyers to afford a mortgage.

Lender Nationwide has reported that prices fell by 0.4%, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, in April – following the 0.2% month-on-month drop in March.

That pulled the annual rate of house price growth down to 0.6% in April, from 1.6% the previous month, with the average house now costing £261,962.

Economists had expected a small monthly rise, of 0.2%.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said:

“The slowdown likely reflects ongoing affordability pressures, with longer term interest rates rising in recent months, reversing the steep fall seen around the turn of the year. House prices are now around 4% below the all-time highs recorded in the summer of 2022, after taking account of seasonal effects.

At the start of this year, mortgage lenders were engaged in a price war as they slashed rates to attract buyers. But the market has changed, as City investors have reduced their forecasts for interest rate cuts this year.

With just two Bank of England cuts now expected in 2024, several lenders have recently raised rates – adding to pressure on homebuyers and those looking to remortgage.

Recent research carried out for Nationwide found that the biggest factors holding potential buyers back are that house prices, and mortgage costs, are simply too high.

Gardner adds:

Coupled with this, 84% of prospective first-time buyers said that the cost of living has affected their plans to buy, for example through having less money each month to save for a deposit.

Around two thirds (67%) of respondents currently have between £0 and £10,000 saved towards a deposit. With a 10% deposit on a typical first-time buyer property currently around £22,000, it is not surprising to find that c.60% of prospective buyers have yet to save more than a quarter of their target deposit.

The agenda

  • 7am BST: Nationwide house price index for April

  • 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI for April

  • 3pm BST: US JOLTS survey of job vacancies

  • 7pm BST: US Federal Reserve sets interest rates

Updated

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