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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Eurozone unemployment hits joint record low; UK election could prompt bond turmoil – as it happened

Hays (Organization) United Kingdom United States Alaska Airlines Boeing
The European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany.
The European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. Photograph: Frank Rumpenhorst/EPA

Closing post

Time for a recap….

Unemployment in the eurozone has fallen back to a record low of 6.4% in November, despite signs that Europe’s economy is struggling.

BlackRock has warned there could be a bond market revolt if UK political parties promise much greater spending or unfunded tax cuts in a bid to win this year’s election.

Hays, the global recruitment consultants, has reported a slowdown in demand at the end of last year, knocking its fees by 15% in December.

The fast fashion company Boohoo is considering closing a factory that it set up in Leicester as a model for its efforts to improve the treatment of workers making its clothing.

The struggling online retailer is consulting with up to 100 workers at the site just two years after it was opened to great fanfare with the intention of using it for “supplier learning and development”, creating 170 jobs.

At least some of those roles are understood to be linked to manufacturing. Staff working on quality assurance and ethical compliance that are also based there are expected to be moved to another site in Leicester, in the change, which was first reported by Drapers trade journal.

A spokesperson for Boohoo Group, which owns the Debenhams, Pretty Little Thing, Oasis and Burton brands as well as its main label, said: “We opened Thurmaston Lane in January 2022 to support [Boohoo] in several ways, including manufacturing, printing and training.

More here:

In the pharmaceuticals firm, GSK is acquiring asthma drug maker Aiolos Bio in a deal worth up to $1.4bn.

The move will help GSK expand its respiratory diseases portfolio.

Founded in 2023, Aiolos is focused on developing therapies for respiratory and inflammatory conditions. It is currently developing ‘AIO-001’, a treatment for asthma which is ready to enter mid-stage clinical trials.

Bond trading giant PIMCO has published its latest economic outlook for the next six to 12 months today.

PIMCO warns that the economic resilience of 2023 will give way to stagnation in 2024, and that recession risks are elevated – even though central banks are trying to achieve a soft landing.

They warn that central banks could cut rates more aggressively than the markets expect, and point out that the UK and Europe are more interest-rate-sensitive than the US, and are also vulnerable to weak growth in China.

Here are the key points:

  • After major economies showed surprising resilience in 2023, we anticipate a downshift toward stagnation or mild contraction in 2024. The standout strength of the U.S. is likely to fade over our six- to 12-month cyclical horizon.

  • After a rally across many financial markets in late 2023, riskier assets appear priced for an economic soft landing and may be underestimating both upside and downside risks.

  • With attractive valuations and yields still near 15-year highs, fixed income markets can offer an array of opportunities with the potential to weather multiple macroeconomic scenarios.

  • In credit markets, we continue to favor U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities and other high quality assets backed by collateral, which offer both attractive yields and downside resiliency.

  • We expect to be broadly neutral on duration after the most recent bond-market rally, which has brought global yields back in line with our expected ranges, and amid the shifting balance of inflation and growth risks.

Updated

Dow Jones in red as Boeing falls again

Stocks are losing ground on Wall Street in early trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average has shed 269 points, or 0.7%, down to 37,413 points.

Boeing is the top faller, down 1.8%, as the crisis at the aeroplane-maker continues.

Overnight, both Alaska Airlines and United reported they had found loose parts on multiple Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft, following the mid-air blowout of a door plug on one flight last Friday.

27 of the 30 stocks on the Dow are in the red, as investors continue to fret that interest rates may not be cut as quickly as hoped.

Fiona Cincotta, senior financial market analyst at City Index, explains:

Attention remains on inflation data, which is due later this week and will offer further clues about the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates.

Federal Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, a voting member this year, said he sees the first cut in the third quarter and leans towards keeping rates high while inflation is above 2%. His hawkish comments have weighed on stocks and boosted the US dollar.

Updated

World economy facing "weakest half-decade of growth in 30 years"

Newsflash: the World Bank has warned that the global economy is set to slow for a third successive year in 2024 and is now on course for its weakest half-decade of growth since the early 1990s.

The Washington-based organisation said poor countries were being especially hard hit by a series of setbacks since the arrival of the Covid pandemic and there was a risk that the 2020s would be a “wasted” decade.

The Bank’s half-yearly global economic prospects (GEP) – which concentrates primarily on the performance of developing and low-income countries – found an uneven picture in the recovery period since much of the world was shut down in 2020.

Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, said by the end of 2024 all developed economies would have higher income per head than before the pandemic, as against two-thirds of low income countries and less than half of fragile or conflict countries.

“Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” Gill said, adding:

“Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries – especially the poorest – stuck in a trap: with paralysing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people.

That would obstruct progress on many global priorities.”

More here.

Updated

UK bond sale sees record demand

There’s no immediate sign that bond vigilantes are shunning the UK, though.

In fact, a British government bond auction today has attracted the strongest demand since April 2020.

The sale of £2.25bn of UK 20-year bonds attracted bids for 3.62 times the volume of gilts on offer. Reuters says makes this the most over-subscribed auction since a sale of 20-year gilts early in the pandemic, when investors were very keen to buy safe assets.

High demand is good news for the government, as it can choose the most attractive bids on offer.

The 2043 gilt sold at an average yield of 4.391%.

Updated

Macron, Zelenskiy, Herzog, Qiang, Milei and von der Leyen to attend Davos, but no Sunak?

The list of top global leaders attending Davos next week for the World Economic Forum has just been released.

France’s Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and Ireland’s Leo Varadkar will be rubbing shoulders at the ski resort with China’s premier Li Qiang, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Argentina’s new leader Javier Milei.

However, Rishi Sunak is not on the list, suggesting the UK PM could be planning to swerve Davos again (as he did last year too).

The theme of this year’s Davos is “Rebuilding Trust”, but the event will be overshadowed by conflict in the Middle East, as well as in Ukraine.

Several Middle Eastern leaders will attend, including Israel’s president Isaac Herzog, Qatar’s PM Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Jordan’s PM Bisher Hani Al Khasawneh, Iraq’s Mohammed Shyaa Al Sudani and Lebanon’s Najib Mikati.

The US delegation will include Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State; Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser, plus representatives from the Senate and House of Representatives.

WEF say that more than 60 heads of state and government are expected, including:

Li Qiang, Premier of the People’s Republic of China; Emmanuel Macron, President of France; Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission; Javier Milei, President of Argentina; Han Duck-soo, Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea; Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain; Viola Amherd, President of the Swiss Confederation 2024 and Federal Councillor of Defence, Civil Protection and Sports; Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine; Alexander De Croo, Prime Minister of Belgium; Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego, President of Colombia; Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece; Mohammed Shyaa Al Sudani, Prime Minister of Iraq; Leo Varadkar, Taoiseach of Ireland; Bisher Hani Al Khasawneh, Prime Minister of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan; William Samoei Ruto, President of Kenya; Najib Mikati, President of the Council of Ministers of Lebanon; Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai, Prime Minister of Mongolia; Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands; Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President of Nigeria; Andrzej Duda, President of Poland; Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Qatar; Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia; Tharman Shanmugaratnam, President of Singapore; Ranil Wickremesinghe, President of Sri Lanka; Isaac Herzog, President of the State of Israel; Srettha Thavisin, Prime Minister of Thailand; Pham Minh Chinh, Prime Minister of Vietnam.

Sky News: Chancellor holds talks with City chiefs

Jeremy Hunt had reportedly held talks with some of the City’s top business leaders this morning, in a bid to inject fresh momentum into London’s stock market, and encourage more firms to float here.

According to Sky News, the chief executives of asset managers Abrdn and Schroders and their counterpart at HSBC Holdings were among those scheduled to attend a breakfast summit with the chancellor.

Sky says:

City sources said the objective of the meeting was to review existing initiatives aimed at boosting the competitiveness of UK equity capital markets following the Mansion House reforms unveiled last year by Mr Hunt.

Among the measures he announced last summer was a move to liberalise the rules governing the spectrum of assets in which pension funds can invest.

The London Stock Exchange has been hit by a number of prominent multinationals, including gaming group Flutter Entertainment, building materials company CRH and TUI, the tour operator, either cancelling their UK listings or drawing up plans to.

Updated

BlackRock warns of UK bond selloff risk in election year

There is a risk of a UK bond selloff this year, if political parties pledge giveaways in the run-up to the next general election, asset management giant BlackRock has warned.

Vivek Paul, BlackRock’s UK chief investment strategist, told Bloomberg that UK bonds could come under pressure if voters are promised looser fiscal policy – such as lower taxes.

Paul said:

“As inflation falls in the UK and we get closer to the general election date, major UK political parties may be more tempted to promise looser fiscal policy — the more this occurs, the greater the likelihood of the return of the bond vigilantes.”

“In the lead-up to this year’s UK election, we’re watching the fiscal policy stance.”

The Conservative party appear keen to fight the next election on the issue of tax; last weekend, Rishi Sunak said he wants to cut taxes for working people further this year, possibly cutting welfare payments to fund it.

Tax cuts could also be ‘funded’ by cutting investment, although that would be a short-sighted strategy.

Alternatively, lower taxes could lead to higher borrowing to cover the gap between the government’s income and spending.

Increased borrowing needs could push down bond prices, increasing the yield (or interest rate) on the debt, as investors demand a higher rate of return for buying UK debt.

The UK got a taste of this in September 2022, when the markets balked at the unfunded tax cuts in the mini-budget, sending bond yields soaring.

As BlackRock’s Paul points out:

“The shadow of the autumn 2022 UK gilt crisis still hangs over the pre-election debate so far.”

BlackRock is currently staying neutral on the UK’s government bonds, Bloomberg adds. More here.

Updated

Microsoft-OpenAI partnership could face EU merger investigation

Elsewhere in Europe, the European Commission could potentially launch a full-blown investigation into Microsoft’s $13bn investment in artificial intelligence developer OpenAI.

The EC says it is looking into some of the agreements that have been concluded between large digital market players and generative AI developers and providers, to examine the impact of these partnerships on market dynamics.

And Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI is in its sights.

The EC says:

Finally, the European Commission is checking whether Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI might be reviewable under the EU Merger Regulation.

That investment was brought into the spotlight after the turmoil at OpenAI late last year, when founder Sam Altman was dramatically fired, and then reinstated a few days later after staff threatened to revolt.

Following the upheaval, Microsoft now has a non-voting observer seat on a newly assembled OpenAI board.

UK regulators are also concerned. Last month, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) began reviewing if the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership had resulted in “an acquisition of control”.

The EU says today it has launched two calls for contributions on competition in virtual worlds and generative artificial intelligence (‘AI’) and sent requests for information to several large digital players.

The calls for contributions on virtual worlds and generative AI are available here.

Updated

A significant increase in eurozone unemployment looks very unlikely over the coming quarters, says ING, given that employment expectations are rising again.

Peter Vanden Houte, ING’s chief economist for the eurozone, points out that the eurozone’s labour market remains historically tight.

Following this morning’s drop in eurozone unemployment to a joint record low, Vanden Houte explains:

Although the eurozone has been going through a soft patch with year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter, and likely also in the fourth quarter, close to zero, this has not had any impact on the unemployment rate, which has fallen over the year. There have been several explanations for this.

The economic weakness has been predominantly in the manufacturing sector, while the more labour-intensive services sector has fared better. On top of that, there has been a preference for shorter work hours, negatively affecting productivity growth per employee and exacerbating the demographically-induced tightness in the labour market.

GMB: Workers at Amazon's new Birmingham warehouse to strike

Back in the UK, the GMB union has announced that workers at Amazon’s new flagship warehouse in Birmingham have voted to join industrial action, just weeks after opening.

Workers at the Birmingham fulfillment centre will strike on Thursday 25 January, which is the anniversary of the first ever official strike action at a UK Amazon warehouse.

Amazon’s new £500m Birmingham fulfilment centre opened its doors at the end of 2023.

Amazon faced nearly 30 days of strike action in the last twelve months, the GMB says, with workers at its Coventry warehouse holding several days of industrial action in the last year.

However, it’s not clear that the Birmingham strike will involve many staff.

A source close to Amazon told Retail Week last month that “of the 2,000-plus employees at Sutton Coldfield, 34 are members and 19 have voted for strike action”.

The GMB are urging Amazon to recognise the union and end poverty pay.

Rachel Fagan, GMB Organiser, says:

“The industrial chaos Amazon faces isn’t going to disappear; it’s growing every day.

“We’re just weeks into the new year, but are already seeing the strike action spread to new Amazon workplaces.

Here’s Kamil Kovar, economist at Moody’s Analytics, on today’s eurozone jobless data:

Despite the drop in unemployment in November, the eurozone still has a youth unemployment problem.

There were 2.321 million young people (under the age of 25) unemployed across the euro area in November.

That follows a drop of 54,000 compared with October, which brought the eurozone unemployment rate down to 14.5% in November, from 14.8% a month before.

Compared with November 2022, youth unemployment actualy increased by 49,000 in the euro area.

Today’s eurozone unemployment data underscore why the European Central Bank has no plans to start cutting interest rates any time soon, says Bloomberg, adding:

Even amid the mild downturn, employers are struggling find staff, pushing wages higher and creating upside risks for inflation.

Eurozone unemployment dips to joint record low

Unemployment in the eurozone has fallen unexpectedly to a joint record low, suggesting Europe’s jobs market remains strong despite the weak growth in the region.

The jobless rate in the eurozone dipped to 6.4% last November, new data from Eurostat shows, down from 6.5% in October, matching the record low set in June.

A year earlier, the unemployment rate was 6.7%.

Economists had expected the eurozone unemployment rate to remain unchanged in November, after the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter of last year.

During November, eurozone unemployment dropped by around 99,000 in the eurozone, to 10.97m.

In the wider European Union, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.9% in November 2023, from 6% in October.

Falling unemployment should help workers find jobs and negotiate pay rises, which may deter the European Central Bank from considering cuts to interest rates soon (especially as inflation rose in December, to 2.9%).

German industrial output weaker than expected in November

Germany’s economy has taken another hit, with industrial production unexpectedly falling in November, the sixth monthly decline in a row.

German industrial output fell by 0.7% month-on-month in November, the federal statistics office says, extending the ongoing downturn at German factories.

The production of capital goods decreased by 0.7%, while the production of intermediate goods fell by 0.5% and consumer goods output fell by 0.1%, statistics body Destatis says.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, fears there is very little reason for near-term optimism.

The order book deflation of the last two years leaves clear marks as well as ongoing energy and policy uncertainty. With a soft or hard landing of the US economy and still very little positive growth momentum in China, external demand for German industrial production is likely to remain weak. The only upside could come from a turning of the inventory cycle. However, even though there are some very tentative signs of inventory reduction, it would still take until late spring before we could see a significant impact on actual production.

Brzeski also fears that December is likely to bring more negative surprises, with the first signs of economic fallout from the government’s fiscal woes, disruptions in the Suez Canal and reportedly weak Christmas sales.

He adds:

All of this points to another small contraction in the fourth quarter, pushing the German economy into the first – admittedly very minor – technical recession since 2020.

Hays has been hit by a recruitment slowdown in both the UK and globally, says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

And that is a concerning economic signal, Mould explains, after this morning’s warning that profits will be below expectations.

“Recruitment stocks are often a good harbinger for the wider economy as companies are keen to hire when they’re feeling confident and tend to freeze recruitment when times are more uncertain.

“In this sense a profit warning from Hays has wider significance. The speed of the deterioration in its outlook will be cause for particular concern.

“The company’s problems look particularly acute in the UK – but with fees as a whole down 10% for the quarter and down an alarming 15% for December, this is a global issue too.

“Hays is cutting its own cloth accordingly and as a cyclical business it is used to dealing with fluctuating fortunes.

“The company may have to batten down the hatches for some time, but it will hope a pivot in interest rates and a reduction in inflationary pressures will eventually lead to an improvement in business confidence and help drive a recovery in hiring activity.

“While this is out of the company’s control, levers it can pull include expanding its ‘enterprise client’ business which sees firms outsource their temporary and permanent white-collar recruitment to Hays. This could help increase the predictability of earnings.”

B&M doesn't expect material impact from Suez Canal disruption

B&M says it doesn’t expect any material impact from disruption to shipments through the Suez Canal, despite attacks by Houthi militants forcing some shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea.

Alex Russo, the boss of the discount goods chain, told Reuters:

“I don’t expect any material impact for us.

The supply chain for us has sufficient in-built flexibilities so I don’t expect any impact coming into our business.”

Last week, retail chain Next warned that difficulties in the Red Sea could delay deliveries and hit sales in the year ahead.

City AM say it is “a worrying sign of the health of the UK economy” that recruitment giant Hays has been forced to lower its expectations after a difficult December.

Updated

Discount retailer B&M has reported a rise in UK revenues in the run-up to Christmas period.

B&M’s UK like-for-like revenues rose by 3.7% in the 13 weeks from 24 September to 23 December, rather slower than in France where they grew by 11.3%, while its Heron Foods business grew by 11.7%.

Alex Russo, chief executive, said,

“The performance across the Golden Quarter has been pleasing, with strong operational execution across the three businesses.

Our strategy remains unchanged - we are an everyday low-price discounter with a laser-focus in keeping excellence in retail standards and our costs the lowest.

This allows us to provide our products at the best price to all customers – many of whom continue to face significant cost-of-living pressures.

B&M has also announced a special dividend of 20p per share for investors. But despite this sweetener, its shares have dropped 0.6% this morning.

Emma Carr, retail partner at law firm Gowling WLG, says:

Despite a slowing in midway-year growth for this discount retailer, its last minute rebound in sales can doubtless be attributed to a rush in last-minute festive sales requirements where the retailer was able to step in and rapidly meet these needs.

Of course, capitalising on this as we move into the New Year period will be key for the retailer, as it looks to utilise its traditionally well-focused supply chain capabilities to deliver against the fortunes of other more mainstream supermarket competitors.

Hays shares slide after hiring slowdown warning

Shares in Hays are down 12% in early trading in London, after it warned that the fall in fees will hits its profits.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, says:

“Hays has issued a profit warning – it expects first half pre-exceptional operating profit of about £60 million, missing analysts’ expectations, sending shares sharply lower. In its second quarter trading statement it also said quarterly fees fell by 10%, hurt by weakness in December. But the recruiter said it is too early to tell whether this reflects a more sustained market slowdown.

Shares in Hays plunged as much as 19% at one stage this morning and are still down by over 12%. Hiring of permanent staff tends to ebb and flow with the economic cycle. The sluggish global growth backdrop combined with tighter monetary policy has dampened business appetite to pile on additional fixed staffing costs. And while temporary workers typically pick up the slack, Hays said it didn’t see the ‘normal seasonal step-up in worker volumes’ dealing a double blow to the recruitment firm.

Today’s slide reverses much of the rebound in the stock seen since the lows in October. Over a 12-month period shares are down by over a fifth.”

Updated

Here’s a full breakdown of Hays’ trading in the last quarter of 2023, showing the “clear slowdown” in global markets:

  • Germany: flat fees, or up 2% on a WDA basis. Temp & Contracting flat (up 2% WDA), with volumes down 1%, impacted by lower new sales YoY through the quarter. Perm fees flat YoY

  • UK & Ireland: fees down 17%, with Temp down 13% and Perm slowing through the quarter, down 21%

  • Australia & New Zealand: fees down 20%, with Temp down 16% and Perm slowing through the quarter, down 27%

  • Rest of World: fees down 11%. EMEA ex-Germany fees declined by 5%, with Asia down 11%. The Americas continued to be tough, down 25%

Updated

Introduction: Hays reports slowdown in hiring

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

December has been a cruel month for UK recruiters, and retailers.

Hays, the global recruitment consultants, has reported that its fees – earned by placing candidates into roles) – fell by 15% last month, as demand from companies looking to fill vacancies slowed.

This led to a 10% drop in earnings across the last quarter, and the slowdown means Hays expects to miss market expectations for profits in the first half of its financial year.

The company is now accelerating its cost reduction and efficiency programmes, and cut its consultant headcount by 5% in the October-December quarter.

In the UK & Ireland, Hays reports that fees fell 17% in the last quarter, including a 13% drop in income from temporary positions and a 21% drop in permanent fees.

The slowdown went further too, with Australia & New Zealand fees down 20%, Asia down 11%, and the Americas down 25%.

Dirk Hahn, Hays chief executive, says it is “too early to say” if December’s weakness shows a sustained market slowdown, or rather that some placements are simply being deferred.

But, Hahn warns, near-term market conditions are expected to remain challenging, citing increased uncertainties and reduced client and candidate confidence.

He told shareholders:

“Overall market conditions became increasingly challenging through the quarter, including a clear slowdown in most markets in December, notably in our Perm businesses as client and candidate decision-making slowed. Temp volumes remained broadly stable sequentially through the quarter, but declined YoY as we did not see our normal seasonal step-up in worker volumes.

As a result, we expect operating profit in our first half to be c.£60 million, despite our ongoing actions to reduce costs.

UK shoppers also cut back last month, leaving retailers suffering a disappointing festive period, new data this morning shows.

Total sales grew 1.7% in December, down from almost 7% growth a year earlier, the British Retail Consortium and consultancy KPMG have reported.

Their report shows there was a slight increase spending in the week leading up to Christmas as consumers scrambled to purchase last-minute gifts. But shoppers shunned clothing, jewellery and technology gifts, opting instead for beauty, health and personal care products, while toys and gaming also sold well.

And households remained cautious about making larger purchases in the post-Christmas sales.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, says:

“The festive period failed to make amends for a challenging year of sluggish retail sales growth.

“Weak consumer confidence continued to hold back spending.”

Also coming up today

Boeing is facing an escalating crisis after loose parts were discovered on some grounded 737 Max jets, days after an Alaska Airlines plane suffered a mid-air blowout on Friday.

Alaska Airlines indicated that its maintenance technicians had found issues when inspecting their 737 Max 9 fleet, saying:

“Initial reports from our technicians indicate some loose hardware was visible on some aircraft”.

The problems don’t end there either; United Airlines said yesterday it had found loose bolts and other “installation issues” on multiple 737 Max 9 aircraft.

Boeing’s shares fell 8% yesterday, as investors pondered the possible fallout from the accident.

The agenda

  • 7am GMT: German industrial production for November

  • 7.45am GMT: French trade balance for November

  • 10am GMT: Eurozone unemployment report for November

  • 10am GMT: Business and Trade Committee to quiz Asda co-owners TDR Capital

  • 1.30pm GMT: US trade deficit figures for November

  • 3pm GMT: RealClearMarkets/TIPP index of US Economic Optimism Index

Updated

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