People's lives are at risk as a heatwave grips most of England and Wales this week, the Met Office has warned. And experts claim that there could be "hundreds or thousands of excess deaths from the heat in the next few days".
It comes after UK Health Security Agency issued a 'national emergency' heat health alert. Forecasters say there is an 80 per cent chance of the UK's record temperature being broken, and a 50 per cent chance of it hitting 40C (104F) somewhere in the country.
The Met Office urged people to take care of vulnerable friends and family as it issued its first red warning ever for Monday and Tuesday, covering an area from London up to Manchester, and up to the Vale of York. An amber warning for heat covers much of England and Wales from Sunday until Tuesday.
Most of England and Wales is expected to have temperatures in the mid-thirties on Tuesday, when the heatwave will peak after starting to cllimb over the weekend. The UK’s record temperature of 38.7C (101.7F) was set in Cambridge in 2019.
The UK Health Security Agency has increased its heat health warning from level three to level four – a “national emergency”. Level four is reached “when a heatwave is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system… At this level, illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups,” it said.
Met Office spokesman Grahame Madge said: “If people have vulnerable relatives or neighbours, now is the time to make sure they’re putting suitable measures in place to be able to cope with the heat because if the forecast is as we think it will be in the red warning area, then people’s lives are at risk. This is a very serious situation.”
Prof Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, told The Guardian: “Assuming the weather forecasts are roughly correct, it’s very likely that there will be hundreds or thousands of excess deaths from the heat in the next few days."
Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, told The Guardian: “We could see 1,500 to 2,000 deaths just from this one period of heat.”
A Government spokesman said railway speed restrictions may be needed on “some parts of the network next week to manage the hot weather and to avoid any potential damage”.
Jake Kelly, of Network Rail, warned that journeys will take “significantly longer and delays are likely as speed restrictions are introduced to keep passengers and railway staff safe”.
Train operators have warned passengers to avoid travelling on Monday and Tuesday unless their journey is “absolutely necessary”.
Some southern schools are also considering closing on these days – and the NEU teaching union issued a statement saying it would support headteachers taking this decision.
Downing Street said that the Cobra emergency planning committee met on Thursday, and discussions with sectors including the NHS will “continue to work closely with all of those sectors over today, through the weekend and into early next week”.
Meanwhile, motorists have been advised to try to make their journeys outside of the hottest periods of the day, particularly if they have older cars.
North Wales Police said a paddleboarder died after getting into difficulty in the water off Conwy Morfa beach on Thursday evening.
Officers were called at 10.14pm and attended alongside the coastguard, RNLI and ambulance service, with two casualties taken to hospital in Bangor, where one of them, a 24-year-old woman, died.
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