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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow (now) and Helen Sullivan (earlier)

Sunak cites ‘confidential’ inquiry as he refuses to answer questions over aide and election date bet – as it happened

​​Rishi Sunak Sir Keir Starmer United Kingdom Jessica Elgot Kevin Craig Pippa Crerar The Metropolitan Police
Rishi Sunak speaks during Q&A event as part of a visit to Denby pottery factory in Derbyshire on 27 June
PM again declines to say whether he told Craig Williams in advance about his decision to hold the election in July Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

3m people watched Sunak v Starmer, but twice as many watched Georgia v Portugal, figures reveal

British television viewers preferred Georgia v Portugal over Sunak v Starmer last night, with the final televised leaders’ debate losing a ratings battle to live Euro 2024 football.

BBC One’s final head to head between the two main candidates to be prime minister peaked at 3m viewers, with audiences possibly suffering from election ennui.

ITV’s offer of a more competitive contest featuring an unexpected victory for the underdog attracted a peak of 6.4m viewers, as Georgia celebrated a historic victory.

Televised debates have continued to shape this election, even though their live audiences have been around 60% lower than when they were first introduced at the 2010 election.

Many millions of people will see and hear clips from the debates on news bulletins, even though they didn’t watch the live programmes.

Farage says he is 'dismayed' by 'reprehensible' comments by some of his campaign team in Clacton

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has condemned statements made by some of his campaign team in Claction as “reprehensible”. In a statement released ahead of publication of a story by Channel 4 News, he did not reveal what the offending words were. But he said:

I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.

The appalling sentiments expressed by some in these exchanges bear no relation to my own views, those of the vast majority of our supporters or Reform UK policy. Some of the language used was reprehensible.

Reform UK is a party for everybody who believes in Britain. I am proud that our supporters, candidates and national campaign team come from all backgrounds and identities.

I would be interested to know whether Channel 4 is subjecting the grassroots volunteers of all the political parties to similar subterfuges, or whether Reform UK has been singled out for special attention.

Here is Archie Bland’s Election Edition briefing on today’s events.

A reader asks:

Do we have any indication of how the electorate feel about the trans rights anti-woke nonsense of the Tories? Any polling on the issue?

I’m sure this is one of those areas where, depending on how you frame the question, you can get the polling to say whatever you want. I have not had time to research this properly. But More in Common do a lot of research on attitudes to cultural issues, like this one, and their work is always blanced and insightful. Here are three points made by their director, Luke Tryl, that are worth noting.

1) There is evidence suggesting people think politicians talk too much about trans rights, not too little.

As well as asking people their top election issues we asked people this week if politicians were talking too much or too little about those issues. Interestingly debates about transgender people were the only issue where more said it was talked about too much than too little.

The worry about an over focus on trans also emerged in @BurnsConleth debate focus group in Basildon - not that people thought there weren’t important issues involved to get right, but the relative airtime compared to other issues during the campaign/debate.

2) Labour allegedly “not knowing what a woman is” does not seem to be a big reason for people not switching to the party.

Social issues don’t seem to be motivating votes/be high on lists of concerns, the charge ‘Labour doesn’t know what a woman is’ ranked near the bottom of people’s hesitations about voting Labour - concerns about not doing a better job on cost of living were at the top.

3) Allowing gender self-ID was the most unpopular of a series of policies polled by More in Common – and it was unpopular even with Labour and Green voters.

Updated

Farage says he treated 2nd and 3rd Covid lockdowns 'with total contempt', implying he ignored rules

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, attracted a big audience in Sunderland where he gave a speech announcing that the businessman and former Tory donor Sir John Hall is backing his party. (See 1.01pm.)

Here are some of the other lines from what was a relatively long and wide-ranging speech. Farage has been delivering inflammatory, provocative oratory to rightwing audiences for at least a decade, and much of what he said will have not have sounded surprising to anyone familiar with his record. But perhaps there was more of a Trump flavour to it than in the past, evident in his hubris (he boasted about having a better understanding of foreign policy than anyone in government), in his contempt for the Conservative party (in the past he wanted to influence them; now he wants to replace them) and in his lockdown-scepticism.

  • Farage implied that he broke lockdown rules during the pandemic. He said that he treated the second and third lockdowns “with total contempt” and described those lockdowns as perhaps the worst misake made by a British government in peacetime. He said:

The Tories say we’re in economic trouble because of the pandemic. But hang on – you didn’t need to lock us down for a second and a third time. You didn’t need to take away our freedoms in a way that weren’t even done during world war two, and all of it done with Labour support.

I actually believe the long-term economic and psychological damage from lockdowns two and three perhaps represents the biggest mistake any British government, supported by the opposition, has ever made in peacetime.

I don’t know about the Downing Street parties, I treated those last two lockdowns, I must be honest, with total contempt. And I’m sorry – I just thought government’s gone way, way too far.

  • He claimed that he had a better record on foreign policy than recent prime ministers. Defending his recent claims about how the expansion of Nato and the EU provoked Russia to invade Ukraine, he said he was right. “All I did, alone, was to predict what would happen. That is not a sin.” He said when the Iraq war took place, unlike the Conservative and Labour parties, he was asking what the exit strategy was. And he said he was right about David Cameron’s attack against Libya being “madness”. He said that conflict helped to create Islamic State. “We are absolutely idiotic when it comes to these things,” he said, claiming the war also led to the small boats problem. He went on:

I would put myself up, on foreign policy, against any of these people. I have got the track record of being right.

  • He said the election date betting scandal illustrated the “arrogance and entitlement” of the Conservative party. He said:

We’re up against the Conservative party – or should I perhaps, more accurately, describe them as an international betting consortium. It gets worse every day, doesn’t it. Story after story. Now we learn about a Conservative MP who allegedly has put £8,000 on his Labour opponent in his own seat to win. I mean, would you bet against your own team at football. If you were caught, you’d be kicked out of the club and quite right too. More and more of them are being dragged in and it shows you their sense of arrogance and entitlement.

  • He defended his decision to use the word “invasion” to describe the number of people arriving in small boats. He said:

As for the small boats, well, it was me going out into the English Channel repeatedly in the spring of 2020 filming, explaining that unless we got a grip on this, that it would be a huge problem.

And I dared to use a word, a word so repulsive that it must never be repeated in polite society. A word so awful that I’m to be a pariah for the rest of my life.

I dared to say that I feared there would be an invasion of small boats across the English Channel. Well now – 4,000 boats and 128,000 people later – if it’s not an invasion, what the hell is it?

Badenoch claims Labour's plans to monitor ethnic pay disparities like 'apartheid South Africa' and 'morally repellent'

Kemi Badenoch has explicitly compared Labour plans to introduce monitoring over ethnic pay disparities to apartheid South Africa, saying the policy would be “used to work out what people of different ethnicities should be paid”.

In a typically combative speech, speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce conference in London, the business secretary also likened the plans to policies used by the repressive regimes in China and Myanmar.

Badenoch was not seemingly being accurate in saying Labour’s plan would set out rates of pay for people of different ethnicities. The policy extends existing protections about pay on gender grounds to ethnicity and introduces reporting on disability and ethnicity pay gaps for large employers.

It does not say pay should be based on ethnicity. The idea of an ethnicity pay gap reporting was also proposed by Theresa May in 2018.

In her speech, Badenoch claimed that Labour would be going further than this with an explicitly “political” agenda. She did not cite any evidence for the claim.

There would be, she said, “a law that will be used to work out what people of different ethnicities should be paid, and they will be checking on you”.

She went on:

Labour’s proposals divide the country into black/white, rich/poor, old/young, because they see people as target groups not as individuals, and they see you as greedy exploiters not wealth creators.

I think classifying your workforce by race and having this influence their salaries is morally repellent. It’s what they did in apartheid South Africa and what they do now in China and Myanmar. We should not be going anywhere near this stuff.

Badenoch is a vocal opponent of policies based on structural inequalities, an idea she has dismissed repeatedly.

Rishi Sunak has suggested that just 150,000 voters could be enough to stop the Conservatives losing by a landslide.

As the Telegraph reports, Sunak made the comment in an interview with GB News being broadcast tonight. Asked about the Conservative party’s dire opinion poll ratings, Sunak said:

I’d say to everyone watching ‘those polls aren’t destiny’. People watching can make the difference …

There’s other research that just shows it’s something like 150,000 voters in key places will make the difference.

Those are the people that will be watching, right? If you’re watching this show right now, you can make the difference.

Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and Ed Davey have all been doing pottery-related campaign events today.

Reform UK drops candidate revealed to have been BNP member

A Reform UK general election candidate has been dropped after it emerged that he had been on a list of members of the British National party (BNP), Ben Quinn reports.

Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, will stand for next Tory leader if he remains an MP after the election, HuffPost UK reports.

In his story, Kevin Schofield says Baker dropped hints about standing in a speech last month. Baker also told the website:

It’s a fact my colleagues sent for me four times to provide leadership through crisis to success: before and after the referendum, in Covid and in relation to the cost of Net Zero. I’m widely expected to lose my seat. We will see.

Baker is seeking re-election in Wycombe, where he had a majority of just 4,214 in 2019. According to the latest YouGov MRP poll, Labour is on course to win the seat easily, beating Baker by 42% to 22%.

Baker spent the first few days of the election campaign on holiday in Greece.

Sunak refuses to say if he told Craig Williams in advance about election date, saying it would be wrong to 'compromise' inquiry

Rishi Sunak has declined to say whether he told Craig Williams, his parliamentary aide, in advance about his decision to hold the general election in July.

Williams placed a bet on July three days before the surprise announcement. He has now been disowned by the Tories as a candidate, and is being investigated by the Gambling Commission. He says he made an error of judgment, but he claims he did not commit an offence.

During a visit to Derbyshire, asked repeatedly if he told Williams in advance about the election date, Sunak said he could not answer because he might compromise the inquiry.

When it was put to him that he would not prejudice the inquiry by answering the question, he replied:

No, it’s absolutely not right when there are ongoing independent investigations that those are compromised in any way shape or form … They are rightly confidential and it’s important that they stay that way.

Sunak also said he was “not aware” of any Tory candidates or party officials being investigated beyond those already in the public domain.

Starmer declines to deny report saying Labour HQ has scaled back campaigning in Clacton

As Aletha Adu reports, Labour activists have been told to scale back their campaigning in Clacton, where the Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is trying to get elected, because party HQ regards it as an unwinnable seat for the party.

Keir Starmer did no deny the story when asked about it today. He said Labour was still fighting in the constituency – but he did not deny that party HQ decided where activists were most needed. He said:

The chief of operations tells people where we most want them to go and fight, but we have got to fight in Clacton, of course we have.

We have got an excellent candidate there, he actually works for me, he is fantastic, so I’m very supportive of him and the campaign that he is running, and he is doing something incredible in Clacton which is being that positive candidate in difficult circumstances.

Starmer says he did not mean to insult Bangladeshi community with comment saying more removals needed

Yesterday Sabina Akhtar, deputy leader of Tower Hamlets’ Labour group, resigned from the party over what she described as comments from Keir Starmer that were offensive to the Bangladeshi community.

She was referring to Starmer talking about how Labour would remove people not entitled to be in the UK. At the Q&A with Sun TV on Monday, Starmer said it was important to return people if they arrived in the UK irregularly and did not qualify for asylum. He then cited Bangladeshis as examples of the people he had in mind, saying:

At the moment people coming from countries like Bangladesh are not being removed because they’re not being processed.

Starmer was making a point about the government’s decision to stop processing asylum claims from people who have arrived in the UK in small boats – an issue that also came up in last night’s TV debate. (See 2.03pm.)

But the comment to Sun TV alarmed Labour members of the Bangladeshi community. Apsana Begum, who is seeking re-electing in Poplar and Limehouse, posted a message on X saying she would “never stand by and let migrant communities be scapegoated”. And Rushanara Ali, who is seeking re-election in Bethnal Green and Stepney, said she had been in touch with Starmer’s office to discuss the “considerable concern and upset” his comment caused.

Today Starmer says he did not intend to cause offence. He said Bangladeshis had made a massive contribution to the UK and “that’s why there’s always been a longstanding and strong relationship between Labour and the Bangladeshi community here”. He went on:

It’s why my first trip as a Labour MP was to Bangladesh, where I saw for myself the strength of the country, the hospitality and warmth of the country. I’ve got many Bangladeshi constituents in my own constituency who I’ve been working with for many years, and I want to build on that in government.

The reference in the debate the other day was an example of a country that is considered safe as far as asylum is concerned, and one of the countries that’s actually got a returns agreement with us, and that is actually a good thing where both we and Bangladesh can be proud of … I certainly wasn’t intending to cause any concern or offence to any Bangladeshi community here.

Starmer dismisses Sunak's claim Labour's returns agreement policy would mean negotiating 'with the Ayatollahs'

Keir Starmer has dismissed Rishi Sunak’s claim in the BBC debate last night that he would “sit down with the Ayatollahs” to get a migrant returns agreement with Iran.

Sunak was arguing that if was unrealistic for Labour saying that it could deal with people who don’t qualify for asylum by saying they would negotiate returns agreements allowing them to be deported, because that would involve dealing with countries like Iran, Syria and Afghanistan.

Speaking to reporters today, Starmer said that Sunak had no answer himself as to what would happen to people in this cohort. He explained:

Even if the Rwanda scheme is up and running with a few hundred flights every year, it will take literally hundreds of years to remove people to Rwanda.

Starmer also said that the Tory policy of not even processing asylum applications from these people made no sense. And he said Labour would of course not be returning people to countries like Afghanistan. He said:

Of course there will be countries, Afghanistan is an example, where you can’t return people. They’re not going to be returned to Afghanistan. But what we can’t do is stay with this absurd situation where there’s just a growing and growing number.

In practice, Labour’s plan to process asylum claims from people who have arrived in the UK by small boats recently (and who the Tories are banning from claiming asylum) would probably lead to most of the arrivals from Iran, Syrian and Afghanistan being granted asylum. But this was not an argument that Starmer wanted to make in the debate last night, which led to him being on the back foot when questioned by Sunak.

John Swinney complains of 'conspiracy of silence' over funding for public services at last FMQs before election

The last FMQs before the Scottish parliament’s summer recess – and the final outing for Douglas Ross as Scottish Conservative leader – was little more than an opportunity for the parties to rehearse their election campaign lines, despite the focus supposedly being on Holyrood matters.

Ross – who was immediately told off by the presiding officer for describing SNP members as “clapping seals” – said that independence was “the only thing that mattered” to John Swinney, and that voters had other priorities; Ross referred to new figures showing delayed discharge is at a record high.

Swinney blamed 14 years of austerity, and said that the Institute for Fiscal Studies had highlighted a “conspiracy of silence” about the funding of public services.

Labour leader Anas Sarwar also attacked the Scottish government for NHS failings – waiting times in particular – while Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton went on GP waiting times and cuts of mental health funding.

Swinney told Sarwar he wanted an “honest conversation” about the financial support required for the NHS – and Sarwar said he looked forward to having just that on the SNP’s health record ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections.

New polling out this morning suggests the gap between Labour and the SNP has narrowed but that, because of the concentration of Labour support in the central belt, the nationalists should still expect heavy losses.

As PA Media reports, a Savanta poll has Labour and the SNP both on 34% – but with analysis suggesting this could lead to Labour winning 28 seats (up from 1 in 2019), and the SNP just 18 (down from 48 at the last election).

And a Survation poll has Labour on 37%, with the SNP on 31%. That would give Labour 31 MPs and the SNP 17, modelling suggests.

Starmer dismisses Tory 'surrender' ad attacking Labour as 'desperate stuff'

Keir Starmer has dismissed the Tory election ad saying people should not “surrender” to Labour, and depicting a family with their hands up, as “really desperate stuff”. (See 11.17am.) Speaking to reporters today, he went on:

And I’m surprised by it. I think it underlines the difference between the two campaigns.

Now, they’re running a very negative campaign, nothing about the future of the country. I’m very happy to be the candidate going into the final week because putting forward a positive case for the change that country needs.

Former Newcastle United owner and former Tory donor John Hall says he's backing Reform UK

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has announced that the businessman and former Newcastle United owner Sir John Hall is backing his party.

In the past Hall has given more than £500,000 to the Conservative party. But today he told ITV Tyne Tees that the party no longer represented his views. He said:

I’m a disillusioned Conservative. I just feel in these latter years they’ve let me down.

Hall said he liked Reform UK because they would “fight for my English rights and customs”. He said he would not be joining the party, but he would be donating to it.

Speaking in a rally in County Durham, Farage said that Hall had been an “amazing success story” and that he was backing Reform UK after decades of supporting the Tories.

Before the rally started, Farage posted this on X to illustrate the size of the crowd.

'We're not pitching new Netflix series' - Labour defends running predictable campaign

Labour’s shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said the party wants to run a government, not a Netflix series, as he defended the party’s decision to run a relatively surprise-free election campaign.

Reynolds said Labour’s offer of stability and predictable policy would be valuable for businesses, in a speech today to industry leaders at the British Chambers of Commerce.

Labour has retained a formidable poll lead over the Conservatives, but has also rowed back on some of its more ambitious proposals -notably on green investment. That has led to some activists complaining the party has not been radical enough.

Unlike the Conservatives, Labour has also largely avoided making surprise policy announcements. Mostly it has focused on promoting policies agreed and announced well before the campaign started.

This has prompted some political pundits to describe the campaign as boring.

But Reynolds said:

I’m told by some commentators, they don’t think Labour’s campaign is exciting enough. Look, my friends, we’re not pitching you a new Netflix series, you know, we’re not putting on politics as entertainment.

We want a return to serious government, to effective policy, and to politics of public service, not as pantomime.

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, is speaking at a rally in Durham. There is a live feed here.

Starmer says election date betting scandal shows why UK needs 'reset for politics'

Last night the Metropolitan police said that, although the Gambling Commission was investigating most of the suspect election date bets, it was involved in cases where the offending could go beyond the Gambling Act to include offences such as misconduct in public office. The Met has also said seven of its officers are now being investigated.

This morning Keir Starmer said this showed why Rishi Sunak should have acted earlier. He said:

This latest development highlights 1) how serious this is, 2) that the prime minister should have acted swiftly at the beginning and showed leadership rather than being bullied into taking action, and 3) the wider choice that is now there at the election between carrying on with this sort of behaviour – we’ve seen far too much of this sort of bending the rules – we’ve got to stop that, turn the page and usher in a reset for politics and for our country.

Updated

Rishi Sunak is speaking at an election event in Derbyshire, and he is restating is claim that a vote for Labour would be a “blank cheque” because Keir Starmer is not saying what he would do in government. He says Starmer has “no answers” on immigration, and Labour won’t match the Tory pledge to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. He says Labour “will whack up your taxes”.

The Economist has published a leader endorsing Labour – for the first time since 2005. A magazine that calls itself a newspaper, there is a similar contradiction in the fact that it is committed to free-market liberal economics, and globalisation, and it is backing Keir Starmer even though he is not over-keen on either of those. But the election is a choice, it says. It explains:

You would never know it from a low-wattage campaign but after 14 years of Conservative rule, Britain is on the threshold of a Labour victory so sweeping that it may break records. No party fully subscribes to the ideas that The Economist holds dear. The economic consensus in Britain has shifted away from liberal values – free trade, individual choice and limits to state intervention. But elections are about the best available choice and that is clear. If we had a vote on July 4th, we, too, would pick Labour, because it has the greatest chance of tackling the biggest problem that Britain faces: a chronic and debilitating lack of economic growth.

Gambling Commission says it's making 'rapid progress' with election bets probe as Met confirms 7 officers being investigated

Seven officers have been identified as having placed bets on the timing of the general election, the Metropolitan police said today.

Britain biggest police force said it will continue to investigate a “small number” of wagers.

Andrew Rhodes, chief executive of the Gambling Commission, said:

We are focused on an investigation into confidential information being used to gain an unfair advantage when betting on the date of the general election.

Our enforcement team has made rapid progress so far and will continue to work closely with the Metropolitan police to draw this case to a just conclusion.

We understand the desire for information, however, to protect the integrity of the investigation and to ensure a fair and just outcome, we are unable to comment further at this time, including the name of any person who may be under suspicion.

Det Supt Katherine Goodwin, who is leading the Met investigation, said:

We have agreed a joint approach with the Gambling Commission, who are the appropriate authority to investigate the majority of these allegations.

There will, however, be a small number of cases where a broader criminal investigation by the police is required.

We will aim to provide updates at key points as our investigation progresses.

One officer, a PC attached to the Royalty and Specialist Protection Command, has been bailed after being arrested on Monday 17 June on suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office.

Updated

And this is from Chris Bryant, the Labour candidate and shadow minister, on the Conservative party’s “surrender” ad attack against Labour.

You didn’t stay for the D-Day commemoration. You didn’t turn up for the votes on Owen Paterson or Boris Johnson. You were beaten by Liz Truss. Half of your candidates have given up. And now you talk of surrender?

Metropolitan police says at least 7 officers now under investigation over election timing bets

The number of Metropolitan police officers under investigation over bets on the timing of the general election has risen to at least seven, the force has said.

On Tuesday the Met said six officers were being investigated – of whom one was the close protection officer who was arrested. The other five, who were not close protection officers, had not been arrested, but were being investigated by the Gambling Commission, it said.

Brendan Cox, whose wife, Jo, was murdered by a rightwing terrorist during the Brexit referendum, has condemned the Conservatives for their “Don’t surrender your families future to Labour” advert. (See 11.17am.)

Sunak criticised after escalating claim that voting Labour would amount to 'surrender'

According to the BBC transcript, Rishi Sunak used the word “surrender” 17 times during last night’s debate. Mostly it was in connection to borders and tax policy. Here are some examples.

I don’t think that people should surrender their family finances to the Labour party

Keir Starmer and the Labour party are not being straight with you. So do not surrender to their tax rises.

Do not surrender our welfare system to the Labour party and Keir Starmer.

If Labour win, the people smugglers are going to need a bigger boat. Don’t surrender our borders to the Labour party.

Do not surrender your local councils and our finances to them.

When pensioners are paying tax for the first time, that’s the change that is coming, so don’t surrender to that, because your families are going to pay the price.

Today, in an advert on social media, Sunak has returned to the theme.

The slogan “Don’t surrender your family’s future to Labour” could be seen as either sinister, or silly (or perhaps both). The picture in this advert presents Labour as an invading army, terrorising families at gunpoint. Presumably Rishi Sunak does not really think of the opposition like this, and so it is just a metaphor – exaggerated, for effect. But it seems intended to resonate with people of a certain generation whose mental furniture has not moved on much since 1945.

The slogan also recalls Boris Johnson’s decision to label the bill intended to rule out a no-deal Brexit as a “Surrender Act”, which was provocative because it demonised remain-voting MPs at a time when some of them were getting death threats.

Some political figures have condemned Sunak’s use of the slogan.

This is from Alastair Campbell, the podcaster and former Labour communications chief.

Another day another propaganda triumph for Sunak as the right wing papers unite to proclaim the latest attack line on Labour, NO SURRENDER (Ian Paisley Sr RIP!) As predicted on @RestIsPolitics - this was the line Sunak wanted to land. Anyone would think that Central Office dictated headlines ahead of the debate to save editors having to have judgement of their own. For a somewhat more balanced judgement if you missed our post-debate podcast live last night (which had more than double the viewers @TheSun had for their live YouTube leaders’ debate,) here it is https://youtube.com/live/ya1K0WSvOAk

This is from Andrew Fisher, who was head of policy for Jeremy Corbyn when he was Labour leader.

Sunak using deeply inflammatory language on migration: “surrender”, “soft touch of Europe”

France takes more refugees than us, as does Germany, Spain & Italy.

Maybe we should do more to stop creating refugees by bombing their countries & selling arms to dictators

And this is from the Lib Dem peer Sarah Ludford.

Sunak’s warning to voters not to ‘surrender’ to a Labour victory was shoddy, at least.
No doubt trying to echo Churchill.
But he said we would not surrender to the Nazis. Starmer, whatever one’s view of him, is not Hitler

Updated

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has seen her popularity rise notably during the election campaign, according to polling by JL Partners for the Rest is Politics podcast.

RISE OF REEVES: Rachel Reeves has now joined Keir Starmer as one of two positively rated politicians in the UK.

In the latest @restispolitics @JLPartnersPolls, she has moved from a net rating of minus 8 to plus 1. She is also the most popular Labour figure with 2019 Tories.

In an interview with Times Radio Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, insisted that Labour would protect single-sex spaces for women.

In the debate last night Rishi Sunak claimed Labour could not do this, because it is not backing his plan to amend the Equality Act to make it clear that, when the legislation refers to sex, it means biological sex. (See 7am.) There have been court rulings saying trans women can be included within the definition too, and the matter may have to be resolved by the supreme court. Keir Starmer argued that the legislation already protected women’s spaces.

Asked about this on Times Radio, Phillipson said:

I do believe in the importance of single-sex provision for women. So that, for example, when accessing women’s refuge provision, they’re confident that it’s a single sex space.

And a Labour government will make sure that we maintain that single sex exemption that already exists within the Equality Act. But to give clarity to service providers, we’ll make sure that they know that they can enforce single sex provision on the basis of biological sex.

Asked if that meant a trans woman would be allowed in a women’s refuge, Phillipson said:

It means that service providers are able to, under the Equality Act, maintain single sex provision for biological women. I do think alongside that we can deliver appropriate care and support for trans people, but that would be done on a different basis, maintaining single sex provision for biological women.

Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, has joined a picket line at St Thomas’ Hospital in Westminster to show his support for the junior doctors who are on strike.

The Economist has become the latest organisation to publish an MRP poll suggesting the Tories are on course for a near wipe-out. Its MRP, which it has carried out with WeThink, suggests Labour is on course to win 465 of the 632 seats in England, Scotland, Wales, the Tories are heading for 76 seats, the Lib Dems 52 seats, and the Greens and Reform UK thee each. This would give Labour a majority of 280.

This chart from the Economist’s report shows what the polling suggests has happened to the Conservative party’s 2019 vote.

But being scrupulous about data, the Economist does not accept this polling as the final word. It also has its own election prediction model, which incorporates the results of conventional polling, and other MRP polls. It too predicts a huge Labour majority, but not such a colossal one. “Its central estimate is that Labour will have 429 mps, the Conservatives 117, the Liberal Democrats 42 seats, the SNP 23 and Reform UK 2,” the Economist says.

Tory business minister Kevin Hollinrake bet on Conservatives winning election

Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has revealed that he put a bet on the Tories winning the general election. As Eleni Courea reports, Hollinrake told LBC the odds were 9:1 and, although he said people might think the bet was foolhardy, he argued: “Victory is always possible if you don’t stop fighting.”

Sadly for the Tories, there is no suggestion that Hollinrake was privy to any inside information that made this bet a wise choice.

Updated

More in Common poll suggests Starmer won BBC debate, by 56% to 44%

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Helen Sullivan.

As reported earlier, a YouGov snap poll, released almost immediately after last night’s BBC debate was over, said viewers felt it was a dead heat. Asked who did best, the result was 50/50.

But later in the evening More in Common released polling suggesting Starmer was seen as the winner, by 56% to 44%. These are from Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director.

Who won tonight’s debate? @Moreincommon_ snap poll finds 44% saying Rishi Sunak and 56% say Keir Starmer

But some good news for Rishi Sunak, people were slightly more likely to say that he did better than they expected than said the same about Keir Starmer.

Impossible to know how much is partisan lean and how much is objective judgement of performance, but one crude comparison with general public’s choice of preferred PM shows Sunak outperforming that on “won the debate” by 8 points and Starmer under by 8.

A similar pattern emerged after the ITV debate near the start of the campaign. The immediate YouGov poll had Sunak as the winner, but only just, by 51% to 49%. But a subsequent Savanta poll had Starmer as the winner by 44% to 39% (or 53% to 37%, if don’t knows are excluded).

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on X (Twitter). I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use X; I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

Shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson is on the Today show. Asked about funding for universities, she says:

”Our universities are a brilliant success story… We will have to stabilise the sector. We will make sure that once again our universities are treated as the engines of growth,” and that Labour will have a “different relationship with universities”.

It isn’t much of an answer.

“They want money,” says Nick Robinson, and Phillipson returns to the Tory record on universities.

With that vague response, I’m handing over to dean of this blog, Andrew Sparrow.

Labour and Lib Dem tactical voting plans will have big impact on Tory seats

According to MRP models, the Conservatives will win about 50 seats at next week’s election. Then again, some pollsters using the same method believe they are heading for closer to 200 seats. The same models show Labour heading for somewhere between 375 and more than 500 seats.

One reason for the huge variation in seat predictions is that people are preparing to vote tactically in historic numbers, encouraged by two opposition parties that have all but abandoned campaigning in each other’s target constituencies.

A poll by Ipsos on Wednesday showed that nearly one in five voters say they are planning to vote for a certain party not because they support it but because it is the one most likely to defeat the Conservatives where they are. That is more than any other general election campaign on record, when the numbers doing so tend to be between 10 and 12%.

Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos, said: “Tactical voting is set to be more widespread than normal, which is why the Conservatives are doing so badly in some seat projections. If you want to predict the scale of the Conservative defeat, you have to understand the impact of tactical voting.”

Kiran Stacey and Aletha Adu report:

Labour's Bridget Phillipson says she doesn't like language David Tennant used about Kemi Badenoch

Labour’s shadow education secretary said she did not support David Tennant’s comments after the actor told equalities minister Kemi Badenoch to “shut up” in a row over trans rights.

Bridget Phillipson told Times Radio:

I personally don’t like that kind of language that was used.

And I believe that where we discus these issues – and it is right that we can have an open discussion about them – that we do so in a way that is absolutely frank but respectful, tolerant, and in keeping with the best traditions within our country.

And I know that politicians, particularly female politicians, receive an awful lot of abuse sometimes and do frequently face that kind of language being used against them and I don’t think it advances a more tolerant and respectful discussion.”

Updated

Minister suggests timing of latest junior doctors' strike politically motivated

Business minister Kevin Hollinrake says the timing of the latest junior doctors’ strike is “interesting”.

Asked whether striking in the final week of an election campaign was “deliberately provocative”, Hollinrake told Sky News:

It’s interesting timing, it really is. There’s not been a strike for some time.

I don’t know, I’m not going to judge somebody’s motivation for a decision but it’s interesting timing and I regret the decision to strike because we know this doesn’t help waiting lists, which we want to bring down.”

Updated

Labour strives to reconnect with disengaged voters

Even during a general election campaign with projections of historic – even unprecedented – results, people cannot always be relied upon to give their full attention.

“We met a guy who said he was going to vote Labour but wouldn’t now because he had just heard that we were taxing condoms,” said Labour’s Karl Turner, who was first voted in as the MP for Hull East in 2010 and is standing for re-election this time.

“I said, ‘condoms?’ ‘Yeah,’ he said: ‘I just heard on that [pointing to the TV] that you are taxing condoms, and I’m not having it. You’re not getting my vote.’ It was Terence [Turner’s parliamentary assistant] here who worked it out.

“‘We’re taxing non-doms, not condoms,’ I said. ‘Oh,’ he said. ‘Like the prime minister’s wife? Ah.’ He calls out: ‘Margaret: they’re taxing non-doms, not condoms.’”

It was one vote saved for Labour in East Yorkshire – but as the general election moves from what observers have described as the “air war”, where messaging is all-important, to the “ground war”, where mobilising the voters to actually visit the ballot box is key, it is the significant tranche of voters who have entirely switched off that worries Turner.

Hull East was the only constituency at the last general election where under half (49.3%) of the electorate turned out to vote. Within Turner’s constituency is the ward of Marfleet, which has a strong claim to be the most politically disillusioned place in Britain. Turnout was 11.6% in the last local elections.

Disillusionment and distrust when it comes to politics and politicians is a UK-wide phenomenon, and is strong in Hull East.

Last night's debate: snap verdict

At the start of the election, the Tories said Rishi Sunak wanted to debate Keir Starmer every week for all six weeks. It was a daft proposal that was never going to be accepted, and at time it felt like a clumsy ploy to make Starmer looked scared when he said no. After tonight, you start to wonder whether there were people in CCHQ who genuinely felt that, with a campaign entirely focused on debates, Sunak might actually have turned things around a bit.

That is because, when the history of Labour’s election-winning campaign gets written up, the two head-to-head debates will stand out as Sunak’s best moments. Almost nothing else has gone right for him. But in the first debate he used a (fairly spurious) tax claim to keep Starmer on the defensive for the whole encounter, and tonight he was just as persistent and unrelenting. In some of the policy areas, like small boats and welfare, he was clearly winning the argument on points. And in terms of landing his message, he was probably more successful than Starmer too – even though, with the constant references to “surrender”, his message has become more alarmist and hysterical than when the election started.

And while technically the YouGov snap poll is a draw, the YouGov sample is weighted (not like the studio audience, which being 50/50 Labour/Tory, was in reality disproportionately Tory) and so if Sunak is drawing neck-and-neck with Starmer, in relative terms he is doing well. Debate snap polls often just reflect how the public feel about leaders generally, and on all those normal measures Sunak and his party are miles behind.

There are two caveats. While Sunak may have done well in terms of scoring debating points, he sounded increasingly like the sort of oddball that you would least want to be standing next to at a party. When he seemed nervous, or was facing challenge, his speaking rate starting speeding out and he began to get shouty and a bit monomaniac. Even if he had a point, it was not endearing.

And the other caveat, of course, is that it is too late for any of this to make any difference – which may be why there was a thread of desperation running through the Sunak performance.

If Sunak won on policy, Starmer won, very easily, on demeanour. He was more effective than he was in the first debate at pushing back at Sunak’s propagandist claims, and he delivered what was probably the best put-down of the night: Starmer said if Sunak listened to people around the country, he would not be so out of touch. He was not afraid to accuse Sunak of lying, but he managed to come over as less petty than his opponent, and more authoritative and likable.

Sunak may have won in that he outperformed expectations. But Starmer presented as the next prime minister, and all he needed was a draw anyway; in that sense it was a win for him too.

As trans rights appear to be becoming a growing issue in the election, it is worth looking back at this explainer by my colleague Archie Bland of the current government’s guidance for schools on youth transition.

In December last year, Bland writes:

The government finally published its long-delayed guidance for schools on youth transition. The document promises a clear set of principles for teachers and staff as they wrestle with the needs of children who are questioning their gender identity. According to the education secretary, Gillian Keegan, the guidance “puts the best interests of all children first”.

But while the guidance has been broadly welcomed by those who believe that it is currently too easy for young people to “socially transition” at school, there are others who disagree vehemently. They see the government’s approach as informed by an underlying hostility to trans people, and scepticism about whether they even exist. And although the guidance does not include an outright ban on allowing social transition (said to have been under consideration until it was found to be unlawful), it clearly creates new barriers for teenagers who want to talk to teachers about their gender without fear of being outed at home.

Central to criticisms of the government’s approach is a view that it takes a highly controversial set of positions about the best way to support children it calls “gender questioning”, and presents them as unimpeachable facts:

Updated

The Metropolitan police are to take an expanded role in investigating the criminal allegations triggered by the Westminster betting scandal, which is continuing to overshadow the election campaign.

Pippa Crerar and Vikram Dodd report:

Sources confirmed that talks between the Gambling Commission, which has been investigating multiple suspicious bets on the election date, and Scotland Yard have been continuing for days.

A formal announcement is expected as soon as Thursday but exact details are still to be hammered out, with the row around the scandal engulfing Rishi Sunak’s election campaign showing no sign of abating.

A Scotland Yard spokesperson said: “The Met is not taking over the investigation into bets on the timing of the general election.

“The Gambling Commission will continue to lead the investigation into cases where the alleged offending is limited to breaches of the Gambling Act only.

“Met detectives will lead on investigating a small number of cases to assess whether the alleged offending goes beyond Gambling Act offences to include others, such as misconduct in public office.”

Sunak returns to campaign trail today after two-day hiatus

Rishi Sunak is returning to the campaign trail on Thursday, PA reports, after a two-day hiatus for the Emperor and Empress of Japan’s state visit and preparations for the final head-to-head debate with Sir Keir Starmer.

With one week to go until polling day, the deepening gambling scandal is still likely to feature heavily when he faces the media during a tour of the East Midlands and Yorkshire.

He is expected to visit a factory in Derbyshire and hold an evening campaign event in Leeds.

Starmer accuses Sunak of using trans issues as ‘political football’

Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of using transgender issues “as a political football to divide people” during their head-to-head debate on Wednesday.

The pair clashed in response to a question about whether they would protect women’s rights to single-sex spaces, regardless of whether people have a gender recognition certificate.

The prime minister said he would “unequivocally” change the law “so that the old Equalities Act recognises that sex means biological sex”.

Starmer said he would protect women’s spaces but would not amend legislation in order to do so.

The Labour leader told the BBC debate at Nottingham Trent University that Sunak should read the current laws and argued the protections are there. “Don’t just use this as a political football to divide people,” he said.

Starmer added: “What I will also say is that I do recognise that there are a small number of people who are born into a gender that they don’t identify with, and I will treat them, as I treat all human beings, with dignity and respect.

“I’ll tell you why, because if you don’t, we end up with the prime minister of the United Kingdom standing in parliament making an anti-trans joke in front of the mother of a murdered trans teenager.”

Sunak replied: “That’s not what I did. I was pointing out that you’ve changed your mind on this question multiple times.”

Starmer was referencing Sunak being accused of mocking trans people in the Commons as the mother of the murdered trans teenager Brianna Ghey visited parliament in February:

Updated

If you’re catching up, here’s our five key takeaways from last night’s TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer:

(This post was previously an embargoed story, which has been removed due to breaking the embargo. It will be restored at the correct time)

Updated

Coming up today

Here is a more detailed schedule of what we can expect on the campaign trail today, via PA:

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer return to the campaign trail on Thursday after they clashed over the Westminster betting row in their final televised head-to-head debate ahead of the General Election.

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Mel Stride is on morning media round for the Conservatives, Shadow Secretary of State for Education Bridget Phillipson for Labour, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey for the Lib Dems.

9.30am Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate for Edinburgh West, Christine Jardine, is on the campaign trail in Edinburgh.

10.15am: Starmer is in the North West and west Midlands.

11.30am: Sunak is campaigning in the Midlands and Yorkshire with a staff Q&A at a pottery factory in Derbyshire.

12pm: Nigel Farage in the North East, before a Reform event with Richard Tice in the evening.

2.30pm Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar to visit a health charity in Kirkcaldy with local candidate Melanie Ward.

3:10pm SNP Leader John Swinney on campaign trail in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh with SNP candidate for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, Tommy Sheppard. Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross to visit business in East Lothian.

7pm: Starmer interviewed by Sky’s Sophy Ridge.

8.30pm: ITV interview with Starmer

9pm: Northern Ireland leaders take part in a BBC debate

Updated

This morning's front pages

Last night’s debate – and exclamation points – are common themes on the front pages this morning, with the Guardian leading with PM and Starmer clash over betting scandal in tetchy final TV debate:

The Times: Sunak rams home tax message in final debate

The Independent: Starmer squares up to striking doctors: I won’t give a 35% rise

The Daily Mail: Rishi’s furious blast at Starmer… You are taking people for fools!

Scotsman: SNP closing gap on Labour despite contrast in seat count

Much like the scandal, the betting puns aren’t over yet: the Daily Record has Flutter Coward beside a picture of a downcast Sunak:

The award for counting – almost – to ten goes to the Daily Express, with: No idea! 9 times Starmer fails to give an answer on boats crisis:

Maybe ‘the next foreign secretary’ knows the answer, in this week’s New Statesman:

And distinguished guests, we have a tie for the Stuff of Nightmares Award, which goes to the cover artists for the New European and the Spectator:

The leaders of the BMA’s junior doctors committee (JDC) said today that they could call further strikes for this summer if the next government does not hold talks in a “timely manner”.

However, they have stressed in recent months that they would be happy for any significant progress towards their goal of “full pay restoration” to be phased in over a number of years. That has raised tentative hopes that the long-running and very disruptive dispute may soon be over.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, has said that increasing junior doctors’ pay would need to be a “journey not an event”. He has also said that he would not approve a 35% rise because if he did, “any trade union worth its salt” would then demand the same sum for its members.

Dr Robert Laurenson, the JDC co-chair, said: “He is talking about things like ‘journey not an event’. We’re happy to have a multiyear pay deal. He has seemingly heard that, and ‘journey not an event’ matches that.”

Dr Vivek Trivedi, the other co-chair, said: “The main thing I’ve taken away from discussions [with Labour] is that there is a willingness to try and at least engage in constructive and meaningful [talks]”.

He added: “If talks do not move in a timely manner, then of course our members would expect us to call for strike action.”

Updated

Junior doctors strike in England despite risk of scoring ‘own goal’

Junior doctors in England will strike today for the 11th time over pay, amid concern in their union that a stoppage so close to the general election is an “own goal”.

Senior figures in the British Medical Association (BMA) believe the strike is pointless and “naive” and risks irritating Labour, which looks likely to be in power by next Friday and asked the union to call it off.

About 25,000 junior doctors are expected to refuse to work during the five-day stoppage, which begins at 7am today and runs until the same time next Tuesday, 2 July.

By the end of it, junior doctors will have been on strike for 44 days since they first took industrial action in March 2023 in pursuit of a 35% pay rise.

The 10 previous strikes have forced the NHS to cancel 1.4m outpatient appointments and operations and spend £1.7bn to minimise disruption.

NHS England expects the “widespread disruption to care” over the next five days to be worse than before because heat-related health problems are adding to the strain on many services. “This new round of strike action will again hit the NHS very hard,” said Prof Stephen Powis, its national medical director.

YouGov poll split down the middle on who won debate

A snap poll by YouGov of 1716 people had voters evenly split on who won last night’s debate. Sunak and Starmer were also practically tied on who seemed more “prime ministerial”, earning 41% and 42% respectively (with 16% “don’t knows”).

Asked how well each individual performed, Starmer came out slightly ahead, with a score of 61% to Sunak’s 56%. Starmer was way ahead on being “in touch with ordinary people”, with 63% to Sunak’s 18%. Starmer was also more likeable (52-33) and trustworthy (50-39).

Sunak beat starmer on immigration (55-35) and tax (48-37), with Starmer coming out on top on the economy (47-53), welfare and benefits (51-39) and Britain’s relationship with the EU (52-32).

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have clashed over their responses to the Westminster gambling scandal, as it emerged the Metropolitan police is to widen its role in the investigation into bets placed on the general election.

In the last head-to-head debate before voters go to the polls, the Labour leader launched a fierce attack on the culture at the top of the Conservative party, saying it showed the “wrong instinct” to place bets on the future of the country – likening it to the cavalier attitude to Covid rules.

In the angry exchanges, Sunak repeatedly urged the country not to “surrender” to Labour’s plans on tax and migration and said the general election should not be decided purely based on frustration with the Conservatives.

Jessica Elgot and Pippa Crerar report:

Updated

Sunak was ‘bullied’ into taking action over betting scandal, says Starmer in last debate before voting day

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the run-up to the UK general election with me, Helen Sullivan.

This time next week polling stations will be preparing to open – voting starts at 7am on 4 July. In their final debate before polling day, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer traded barbs over their responses to the gambling scandal, the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot and Pippa Crerar report, as it emerged the Metropolitan police is to widen its role in the investigation into bets placed on the general election.

Starmer said he had suspended his candidate, Kevin Craig, “within minutes” of Craig admitting in a statement that he had placed a bet against himself winning the seat a few weeks ago.

Starmer was comparing his actions with Sunak, who took days to make the decision. “I think that in the last 14 years politics has become too much about self entitlement, and MPs thinking about what they could get for themselves,” he said.

“The instinct of these people to think the first thing they should do is try to make money, that was the wrong instinct, and we have to change that.”

He said Sunak had “delayed and delayed and delayed” and had been “bullied into” taking action. “My candidates know I have the highest standards. They have seen by my actions the consequences”.

Sunak meanwhile repeatedly urged voters not to “surrender” to a Labour government, using language Boris Johnson used when talking about Brexit.

“Do not surrender to the Labour party the control of our borders. If Labour wins, the people smugglers are going to need a bigger boat,” said Sunak.

More on the key developments from the debate soon.

Meanwhile here is what is coming up today:

9.30am Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate for Edinburgh West, Christine Jardine, is on the campaign trail in Edinburgh.

12pm: Nigel Farage in the north-east, before a Reform event with Richard Tice in the evening.

2.30pm Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar to visit a health charity in Kirkcaldy with local candidate Melanie Ward.

3:10pm SNP Leader John Swinney on campaign trail in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh with SNP candidate for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, Tommy Sheppard.

The Scottish Conservatives are on the campaign trail in East Lothian.

8.30pm: ITV interview with Keir Starmer

9pm: Northern Ireland leaders take part in a BBC debate

Updated

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