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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Amy Sedghi (now); Andrew Sparrow and Helen Sullivan (earlier)

PM says he will take full responsibility for result after minister predicts Labour landslide – as it happened

Boris Johnson ​​Rishi Sunak Sir Keir Starmer United Kingdom Vladimir Putin Chelsea (Geopolitical Entity) Britain SNP
Rishi Sunak during a visit to a primary school in Romsey, Hampshire.
Rishi Sunak during a visit to a primary school in Romsey, Hampshire. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

Closing summary

Thank you for following along with me (Amy) on the politics blog this evening. The blog will be closing shortly but you can stay up to date on the Guardian’s general election 2024 coverage here.

Before I go, here is a summary of the evening so far:

  • Keir Starmer said Labour is ready for government and plans on “hitting the ground running on day one”. The Labour leader told reporters on the flight to his final campaign stop that being in opposition has been “the least productive nine years of my life”. Starmer said: “I’ve been on there far too long so I’m really pleased to have the opportunity.” He added that Labour will be “unforgiven” if it is not prepared for government.

  • “This underdog will fight to the final whistle,” Rishi Sunak said during his last speech on the campaign trail. The prime minister, who was joined by his parents and his wife, Akshata Murty, on Wednesday evening, urged Tory activists to continue campaigning. Sunak said they had “urgent work to do” to “save the UK” from a Labour government. Earlier in the day, asked if he would take full responsibility for whatever the election result was, Sunak replied: “Yes”.

  • Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said the party has focused on taking Conservative seats in the general election rather than competing with Labour. She told the PA news agency that the Conservatives had “taken a wrecking ball to standards in public life” and that the Lib Dem’s target was to “remove as many Conservative MPs as possible”.

  • Nigel Farage has said that Reform UK’s ambitions stretch far beyond the results from Thursday’s general election. Farage addressed the crowd in Clacton on immigration, saying: “How are you getting on for dentists in Clacton? Well then you should have come by dinghy.” He added: “This is unfair, this is wrong and this needs to stop and stop now.” He then went on to start a chant: “We want our country back.”

  • Scotland’s first minister has urged “every single SNP voter” to turn out on Thursday in what he said will be an “incredibly close” contest throughout the country. Addressing supporters at a rally in Leith on Wednesday evening, John Swinney said the Conservatives were going to be “heavily defeated” by the Labour party in England, but that there were “narrow margins” between Labour and the SNP in Scotland.

  • Sinn Féin Leas-Uachtarán Michelle O’Neill has said Thursday’s election is an opportunity to endorse strong leadership, positive change and Sinn Féin’s commitment to work for all. O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s first minister, appealed to voters to return the strongest Sinn Féin team by voting for its party candidates in the 14 constituencies in which they are standing. She also appealed to voters to vote for progressive candidates in the four areas in which Sinn Féin are not standing.

  • The Times have published its view on a Labour government. It says that “Labour in power” was a “leap in the dark”. It hasn’t quite fully endorsed the Labour party, saying that “Labour has bored its way to power”. While Starmer’s “risk-averse strategy” was “successful” on the campaign trail, it has “left the British people with little clue as to his intentions in government”, according to the Times.

  • Ofcom will not investigate Channel 4 News after Nigel Farage’s Reform UK claimed the broadcaster used an actor as a “plant” in its undercover investigation into his campaign. The watchdog said it had received more than 270 complaints about Channel 4 News’s programme titled ‘Undercover inside Reform’s campaign’, which saw a man named Andrew Parker filmed using a racial slur to describe Rishi Sunak.

Updated

John Swinney urges voters to turn out in 'incredibly close' election contest

Scotland’s first minister has urged “every single SNP voter” to turn out on Thursday in what he said will be an “incredibly close” contest throughout the country.

Addressing supporters at a pre-election rally in Leith on Wednesday evening, John Swinney said the Conservatives were going to be “heavily defeated” by the Labour party in England, but that there were “narrow margins” between Labour and the SNP in Scotland.

According to the PA news agency, Swinney said “constituencies will be close contests the length and breadth of the country”, and told supporters it was necessary to motivate “every single SNP supporter” to come out Thursday, saying each vote could “genuinely could change outcomes”.

He explained this was a contest that “really matters” because Scots had a choice between a Labour party that would continue the Conservatives’ policies on Brexit, nuclear weapons and austerity, and an SNP that offered a vision of a “hopeful Scotland”.

His party, he said, would end austerity, eradicate child poverty, “reach out” to European neighbours and “do the right thing on the international questions of the day”.

To cheers, Swinney said:

To the people of Scotland weighing up voting tomorrow I say this.

If you want to live in a hopeful Scotland, a Scotland where we eradicate child poverty, where we reach out to our European neighbours, a Scotland where we do the right thing on the international questions of the day like Gaza, then vote for the Scottish National Party because our values are your values in this election campaign.

We have a chance tomorrow to shape the future of our country, to do what we believe is the right of the people of Scotland, to design a future that’s made in Scotland, for Scotland.

That’s what we’re about as a party, making sure that Scotland is able to make a future in Scotland, for Scotland, through independence.”

Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy said:

This election offers voters the best chance yet to end the SNP’s divisive independence obsession for good.

In key seats across Scotland, it’s a straight fight between the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP.”

Commenting, shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray said:

This election is an opportunity to boot the Tories out that we cannot afford to miss – but let’s not forget that Scots have been let down by two bad governments.

John Swinney was the architect of austerity in Scotland – but instead of apologising for decimating local services, he is standing by his dire record.

This is a first minister with no credibility on public finances and no new ideas for Scotland. After 17 years of SNP failure and 14 years of Tory chaos, Scotland has a chance to deliver a government that is on the side of the working people of Scotland with Scottish MPs at its heart.

Only Labour can end the Tory chaos, maximise Scotland’s influence, bring down bills, make work pay and deliver the change that Scotland needs.”

Ofcom will not investigate Channel 4 News after Nigel Farage’s Reform UK claimed the broadcaster used an actor as a “plant” in its undercover investigation into his campaign.

The watchdog said it had received more than 270 complaints about Channel 4 News’s programme titled ‘Undercover inside Reform’s campaign’, which saw a man named Andrew Parker filmed using a racial slur to describe Rishi Sunak.

The PA news agency reports that Ofcom said, after assessing the complaints against the due accuracy, due impartiality and offence rules under the broadcasting code, “we have concluded that they do not raise substantive issues warranting further investigation”.

A spokesperson for Channel 4 News said:

Since this report aired, Channel 4 News has strongly stood up for its accurate, rigorous and duly impartial reporting, which speaks for itself.

Ofcom’s decision underscores the integrity of Channel 4 News’s journalism and high editorial standards. The programme will continue to refute any claims that we – or the production company we worked with – knew or paid the Reform UK canvasser, Mr Andrew Parker.

We met Mr Parker for the first time at Reform UK’s campaign headquarters in Clacton, and he was filmed secretly via the undercover investigation.”

Times offers cautious support to Labour

The Times have published its view on a Labour government. It says that “Labour in power” was a “leap in the dark”.

It hasn’t quite fully endorsed the Labour party, saying that “Labour has bored its way to power”:

Labour’s “Ming vase” is about to be carried over the finishing line. There have been no disasters in Labour’s campaign, no fatal gaffes; simply the ­turgid restatement of a few quite trivial spending commitments overshadowed by promises not to raise the four biggest taxes. Labour has bored its way to power.

Saying that “democracy requires change”, the newspaper said Starmer was “clearly a sensible man, flexible and pragmatic, a patriot committed to his country’s defence at a time of increasing geopolitical ­instability”, and also had praise for the shadow health secretary, Wes Streeting.

But while Starmer’s “risk-averse strategy” was “successful” on the campaign trail, it has “left the British people with little clue as to his intentions in government”. It states that “questions abound”.

It concluded its leading article with:

This newspaper wants the next government to succeed, and it will not be ungenerous in praise if that is the case. But Labour has yet to earn the trust of the British people. It has been sparing with the truth about what it will do in office and cannot ­expect an endorsement. Sir Keir may have secured a huge majority by Friday. The day after he must begin the process of earning it.”

Updated

Keir Starmer said he was pleased with Labour’s campaign and his party was “ready for what comes next”.

On his flight from Scotland to his final campaign stop in Worcestershire, Starmer told reporters:

I’m really pleased that we have run such a positive campaign. I’m really pleased the four-and-a-half years of work is being vindicated. Because this hasn’t been an easy gig.

When I took over as leader of the Labour party, the optimists said it will take 10 years to fix this party and get it back. The pessimists said you are never going to be in government again.

We had a three-part strategy, we stuck to it and here we are, the day before the election, in a reasonably good position going into the opening of polls at 7 o’clock tomorrow morning.

So I’m pleased, I’m confident in the hard work that we have done and we are ready for what comes next if the country puts their trust and confidence in us.”

According to the PA news agency, Starmer said he had drawn inspiration from sitting in the same seat as Gareth Southgate on his flights to and from Scotland.

He said:

It’s fantastic to be sitting in his [Southgate’s] seat.

I didn’t realise until we were on it earlier that it was the England team plane, so it’s fantastic to sit in it. I do draw inspiration.

But just as every time – you may have noticed a football theme to the campaign – every time we have come out the tunnel on to the pitch, this is a boyhood dream.”

Keir Starmer says Labour is ready for government and plans on 'hitting the ground running on day one'

Labour is ready for government, Keir Starmer has said. The Labour leader told reporters on the flight to his final campaign stop:

I’m confident that we’ll be ready. I’m not going to pretend it’s not going to be difficult … ready for government, nothing is going to be easy, almost everything is in a pretty poor state, but we have to be ready for it and I’m confident we will be.

So while we have not been getting ahead of ourselves, genuinely, we have been preparing hard on the basis that this needs to be hitting the ground running on day one, which is what we intend to do.”

Starmer described being in opposition as “the least productive nine years of my life”.

Asked if he was nervous ahead of polling day, Starmer said:

I’m quite pleased to have this opportunity. I can’t tell you how frustrating opposition is, it’s been the least productive nine years of my life.

Being in opposition, voting and losing for nine years, is not doing what I came into politics to do.

I didn’t come into politics relatively late in life, when I did have other things I could have done, to be on the opposition benches. I’ve been on there far too long so I’m really pleased to have the opportunity.”

Labour will be “unforgiven” if it is not prepared for government, Starmer added. According to the PA news agency, he said:

What I’ve said to the team is nobody is to get complacent. This has been drilled into them for 18 months.

We started the serious preparations during the Liz Truss period – I said we need to be ready for an election at any time.

I’ve also said to all of the shadow cabinet and all of the teams, ‘you are going to have to hit the ground running’. You cannot get ahead of yourself, but we will be unforgiven if we are not prepared and therefore we have been doing a lot of preparation for government.

We’re not going to get a period of time of grace, we’ve got to start this work straight away.”

Updated

Rishi Sunak’s parents and his wife, Akshata Murty, joined him for the final stump speech of the election campaign, reports the PA news agency.

The prime minister stood for a photo with his family after giving a speech at Romsey Rugby Club, north of Southampton where he grew up.

“This underdog will fight to the final whistle,” Sunak said during his last speech on the campaign trail.

The prime minister urged Tory activists to continue campaigning, claiming they had “urgent work to do” to “save the UK” from a Labour government.

Updated

Keir Starmer has given his last speech of the election campaign at a community centre in Redditch.

Speaking to cheering activists for the final time before polls open on Thursday, the Labour leader said:

Imagine a Britain moving forward together with a Labour government. That’s what we are fighting for, let’s continue that fight.

If you want change, you have to vote for it.”

Updated

Nigel Farage has said that Reform UK’s ambitions stretch far beyond the results from Thursday’s general election.

Farage told crowds at his party’s rally at Clacton pier in Essex on Wednesday evening:

This is the first step of a new political movement, but this is not just about winning seats in parliament, which we will, it’s about forming an opposition to a Starmer led government with a big majority.

The Conservatives can’t do that. They say split, they’re so divided and frankly, I think pretty devoid of talent.”

He added:

I’m determined, I’m not frightened of anybody, I stand up for what I believe in, I always say what I think, I will not be bullied by anybody, whether it’s the European Commission, national Westminster bank, or a Keir Starmer government.

But here’s the important thing. Everybody talks about who’s going to be sitting in parliament. But for us that is the tip of the iceberg. My aim and ambition over the next few years is to turn this into a massive grassroots movement of millions of people.”

He continued: “I believe, I really believe that tomorrow marks the first step of what is going to be a truly historic political change in the direction of our country.”

Updated

The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, promised in an interview with Sky News last month, that a Labour government “will properly fund our public services. I believe in our public services.”

But to what extent do public sector workers believe in him? The Guardian has spoken to health workers, teachers, social workers and local government officials who mostly expressed muted support for Starmer. Many said they wanted a bolder and more radical vision from Labour after years of austerity.

Others said they were planning not to vote for the party for the first time, because they believe Starmer has moved Labour too far from its traditional leftwing values.

Polling companies are publishing their final figures ahead of the general election on Thursday, all of which show Labour holding on to the large lead it has enjoyed since the campaign began six weeks ago.

The PA news agency has calculated the averages, based on polls published by BMG, Deltapoll, Find Out Now, Focaldata, Ipsos, JL Partners, More In Common, Norstat, Opinium, People Polling, Redfield Wilton, Savanta, Survation, TechneUK, Verian, WeThink, Whitestone and YouGov.

According to the PA news agency’s calculations, an average of all polls with fieldwork completed during the seven days to 3 July, puts Labour on 39%, the party’s lowest rating since the campaign began, 18 points ahead of the Conservatives on 21%, followed by Reform on 16%, the Lib Dems on 11% and the Greens on 6%.

The Tories are up slightly on the figures for the previous week while Labour are down, with the averages for the seven days to 26 June being Labour 41%, Conservatives 20%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 11% and Greens 6%.

On 22 May, the day Rishi Sunak called the general election, the seven-day averages stood at Labour 45%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 9% and Greens 6%.

Updated

The Guardian’s Today in Focus podcast is an Election Extra. Presented and produced by Lucy Hough with Archie Bland, it asks: is it over?

Labour deputy leader, Angela Rayner, has written a piece for the Guardian. In it, she asks for the Labour party to be given a “chance to prove that politicians aren’t ‘all the same’”.

Rayner writes:

Travelling the length and breadth of Britain these past few weeks, I’ve seen potential in every conversation with voters. There is no doubt it’s a tall order to reverse Tory decline and restore optimism. But if you vote Labour tomorrow, change will begin immediately. We’ll start work on day one to enact our first steps – downpayments, if you like – for a better, brighter future. These will be fully funded and fully costed, as you would expect, to deliver the groundwork of a mission-driven Labour government.

I know first-hand the transformative difference Labour in power can make. It was a secure home, decent work and a strong community under the last Labour government that changed my life when I was a young mum struggling to make ends meet.

For too many people in Britain, those foundations of a good life feel as if they’re crumbling today. A generation looks to the future with worry rather than in hope. The dream of a safe, secure and affordable home is further out of reach. More people find themselves in insecure work and dragged into a race to the bottom. Families in every corner of the country are feeling worse off and forgotten.

You can read Rayner’s full piece here:

Don’t get caught out like Boris Johnson did in May’s local elections. For the first time in a UK general election people will need to produce photo ID at polling stations on Thursday to be able to vote in person.

What photo ID do you need to vote?

There are 20 acceptable forms of valid ID for you to be able to cast your vote, of which the principal ones are a passport or driving licence.

Passports can be issued by the UK or any EU country, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein. Passports from any of the 56 Commonwealth countries are also accepted.

A driving licence is acceptable if it is a UK or Northern Ireland photocard or issued by an EU country. Licences from Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, the Isle of Man or any of the Channel Islands are also accepted.

A Northern Ireland electoral identity card is also valid, as are national identity cards issued by EU countries, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein.

Also accepted are a Pass card, a blue badge, a biometric residence permit, a defence identity card (MoD form 90), a voter authority certificate and an anonymous elector’s document.

Photo ID from university or college enrolment is not considered valid. But several types of concessionary travel documents are accepted.

Here is what else you need to know:

Close election results ‘could be challenged over delayed postal votes’

Close results in constituencies at the election could be challenged in the high court because of delayed postal votes, experts have said.

Caroline Morris, a barrister and reader in public law at Queen Mary University of London, said people could get a hearing if four constituents petition the high court arguing their vote could have had a material impact on the result.

The prospect of legal challenges comes as thousands of voters have complained of not receiving their postal votes on time. In Scotland several councils have opened special units to provide duplicate ballot papers.

Jane Golding, co-chair of the campaign group British in Europe, said members had complained about delays in proxy votes arriving.

Pete Jones, a British citizen who lives in Switzerland with his partner and daughter, condemned the “utter incompetence from those involved in the organisation of postal votes”.

Two of his family received their ballot pack on different days but he has yet to receive his, leaving him with no possibility of voting unless he flies back to the UK on Thursday.

Morris said the system appeared to be under “a great deal of strain”, partly because of the compressed timetable for the election.

A judge could open a fact-finding inquiry to assess whether a re-run of a vote should be called. In an egregious case a judge has powers under the Representation of the People Act 1983, part III to call for a new ballot straight away.

While the bar is high and courts will not order re-runs in general, it is not without precedent, said Morris.

In 1997, there was a re-run in Winchester when the Liberal Democrat Mark Oaten won with a majority of just two votes. After a legal challenge over an administrative bungle that left 54 ballot papers not stamped correctly, the high court ordered a fresh ballot and Oaten was elected with a majority of more than 21,000 seats.

Rishi Sunak has told the PA news agency that he is “campaigning hard for every vote”.

Speaking to the news agency, the prime minister said:

This election is ongoing. I am campaigning hard for every vote.

In terms of how I do this job, I work as hard as I can, I do what I believe is right for the country. That ‘clear conscience is the softest pillow’, as my father-in-law says.

As long as I can look myself in the mirror and know that I am working as hard as I can, doing what I believe is right for the country, that is how I get through, and that is what I believe I am doing.”

Sunak added: “I am someone who has the courage of my convictions, I’m not someone who changes their opinion with the weather, which is what Keir Starmer does.”

He shared a message for would-be Reform voters, saying that they would put Labour in power if they backed Farage’s party:

You have had a very clear message from me to those people about what I think they should be thinking about, because they will get the precise opposite of what they want if they vote Reform.

I know that might strike them as unfair, but that is the system that we have.”

On the last day of campaigning, it’s time to reflect back on the most notable moments of the last six weeks, for a special awards newsletter which we are calling the Election Editionies. I’m sure it will become a thing.

A small note on our election day plans – there’ll be no Election Edition at 5pm as normal, and instead you’ll get a super, special exit poll edition as soon after 10pm as is humanly possible, with reaction to the likely results and a handy companion guide for how to follow the rest of the night.

If you’re planning to go to bed, sign up for First Edition here, where Nimo Omer and I will be rounding up what’s just happened at 7am. And on Friday, you’ll receive your last Election Edition of this cycle (don’t cry) at 5pm. And then we can all get some sleep.

Updated

'Conservatives have taken a wrecking ball to standards in public life', says Lib Dem's Daisy Cooper

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said the party has focused on taking Conservative seats in the general election rather than competing with Labour.

She told the PA news agency that the Conservatives have “taken a wrecking ball to standards in public life”.

She said: “We’ve always said that our target is to remove as many Conservative MPs as possible. We are in second place to the Conservatives in around 80 seats around the country, and we’ve had to target our resources in those areas.”

According to the PA news agency, she would not be drawn on what number of new seats would be considered a success, saying that “every single extra Liberal Democrat MP” will be a voice to campaign for the NHS, social services and the raw sewage crisis.

An MRP poll today has forecast the Lib Dems could get 52 seats and 13.5% of the vote share. Only 11 Lib Dems were elected in 2019.

Speaking about the party’s series of stunts during the general election campaign, Cooper said:

The fact is that every single stunt we do comes with a very serious message. So when Ed was falling off the paddle board, he was highlighting our pledge to put an end to the raw sewage dumping scandal.

When he was at a water park in half-term, he was talking about our pledge to put a mental health expert into every primary and secondary school.

So every time there’s a stunt, there’s also a very serious message. And whilst we don’t take ourselves very seriously, we do take our politics very seriously.”

She said stunts knocking down blue dominoes and blue bricks were an effort to “hammer home” the message that the Lib Dems are seeking to oust Tories.

Cooper told the PA news agency:

There were some really difficult decisions that the Liberal Democrats had to take during coalition, and we were punished, and that’s democracy.

But I think people will now be looking at the Conservative party, and they will see what the Conservatives do when they are in power on their own, and when people go to the polls tomorrow, they will be very acutely conscious that our NHS is on its knees, that families have been abandoned and left to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and our local environment simply isn’t safe in Conservative hands.

I think the Conservatives have taken a wrecking ball to standards in public life, and people are just sick to the back teeth of sleaze and scandals. And when people go to vote tomorrow, I think that’s what they’ll have at the forefront of their minds.”

Updated

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has entered his party’s rally at Clacton pier on an army vehicle to the tune of ‘Without Me’ by Eminem.

The PA news agency reports that the vehicle drove through the crowds before reversing, narrowly avoiding contact with a woman in a mobility scooter.

According to the news agency, Farage addressed the crowd in Clacton on immigration, saying: “How are you getting on for dentists in Clacton? Well then you should have come by dinghy.”

He added: “This is unfair, this is wrong and this needs to stop and stop now.” He then went on to start a chant: “We want our country back.”

Updated

In Essex, where Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is making an eighth attempt to enter parliament, the Tory candidate standing in his way made a last ditch appeal to stop what he described as “the populist juggernaut”.

Giles Watling, who is defending his Clacton seat, said that the atmosphere in the constituency had changed since the arrival en masse of Farage supporters.

He described the Reform leader’s rallies as “chilling” and alleged that people had been intimidated by canvassers for the populist party, including a shop owner who he said had been told that “it wouldn’t be a good idea” if she put up a Tory placard in her window.

“We have had a pandemic and now we have an ongoing war in Ukraine. With that there are people who say what they think people want to hear,” Watling told the Guardian.

“I get we have had a slightly dislocated leadership in Westminster over the last few years but I want to stand on my local record here and say we in Clacton are better than that and we have a chance to stop this populist juggernaut in its tracks I think this is one of the most important elections in the country at the moment.”

Ahead of a rally on Clacton’s seafront on the final day of campaigning, Farage said during a visit to a boxing gym that “British politics will break up in the next five years.”

Farage was in a bullish mood as he appeared alongside the former boxer, Derek Chisora, predicting that Labour would win as much as 37% of the vote and that his party would be “challenging for government” at the next election.

“Twenty five years ago, I became an MEP and I used that to build up into quite a considerable political force. We’ll do the same again.”

Updated

Nigel Farage says he is part of 'a similar phenomenon' to the misogynist influencer Andrew Tate

Nigel Farage has said he is part of “a similar phenomenon” to the misogynist influencer Andrew Tate as he claimed that forces in society such as the Football Association were trying to “stop young men from being young men.”

The Reform UK leader used the last day of campaigning before election day to appear alongside Derek Chisora, the controversial boxer and Reform UK supporter, in a boxing gym in Clacton, where he is making his eighth bid to get elected as an MP.

Farage used the visit to speak about what he described as the feelings of “emasculation” among young men, with whom Tate has built up a huge following despite what the politician described as his imperfections.

“Look at the football. You know, they’re told: Go to Germany. Please don’t drink more than two pints of beer. You what? Don’t charge at the football matches. You what? Oh, and don’t tell jokes that might offend the Germans. I mean, come on. We are trying to stop young men being young men,” he said.

“That’s why Tate got the following he got. So maybe I’m part of a similar phenomenon,” he said, when asked if he believed he shared similar ground with Tate. Since December 2022, Tate has been facing charges in Romania of human trafficking, rape, and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women, which he denies.

The Reform UK leader’s comments come against the backdrop of concerns about the rise of role models and influencers associated with a model of ‘toxic masculinity’.

A poll of 200 people by JLP found earlier this week that Reform UK was the top choice of policial party among 23% of those aged 16 to 17. However, among young men it was on level pegging with Labour, on 35%.

Farage defended his appearance alongside Chisora – who was given a 12-week suspended prison sentence in 2010 after being found guilty of assaulting his then girlfriend and who was mobbed by young boxers at a gym in Clacton.

Asked if Chisora was a good role mode, he replied: “You show me someone [who] has lived a perfect life and never been in trouble. For these young kids he’s a fantastic role model. He’s got a huge following in the country. And yeah, he is a good role model. Imperfect as we all are.”

After taking part in a mock sparring with Farage for the cameras, Chisora reluctantly answered questions about his own past, but insisted he was “born again.”

Young men who spoke to the Guardian at the gym – which was run by a supporter of Farage and had Reform UK banners hung up on the walls – cited his social media presence as one of the factors for why he had prominent following.

“Everything is not the same in the country and you feel there has been a massive decline, so maybe he’s the changed we need,” said one who cited Farages position on immigration and supposed idea of a “woke” culture.

“I think the world is way too woke and it’s past the point of repair. You have to be careful about anything you say. Even supporting him can cause you to be labelled a racist.”

But in a sign that other policies had cut through, another approvingly cited – with some detail – Reform UK’s proposals to lift the income tax personal allowance to £20,000.

Updated

Sinn Féin Leas-Uachtarán Michelle O’Neill has said Thursday’s election is an opportunity to endorse strong leadership, positive change and Sinn Féin’s commitment to work for all.

O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s first minister, appealed to voters to return the strongest Sinn Féin team by voting for its party candidates in the 14 constituencies in which they are standing. She also appealed to voters to vote for progressive candidates in the four areas in which Sinn Féin are not standing.

O’Neill said:

Thursday’s Westminster election is your chance to vote for strong leadership.

It is an opportunity to endorse Sinn Féin’s vision for positive change and our commitment to work for all.

No matter what background or community people come from, Sinn Féin MPs will work hard and deliver on the things that matter to workers, families and businesses.

You can support better funding for our public services, and reject years of Tory cuts which have targeted workers and families.

Change will only be delivered in the north by working together in the executive and assembly, but this election is our chance to send a clear message about the future we want.

I am asking voters to join us in our journey towards a better future, to endorse our vision by returning the strongest Sinn Féin team.

It is clear that people want positive change, and I would urge people to support progressive candidates in areas where Sinn Féin are not standing, to maximise the number of progressive MPs.

Let’s work together. Let’s move forward together to a new and better future. On Thursday, I am asking you to vote for Sinn Féin.”

Updated

More than 70 businesses, including Virgin, Paramount, the Rugby Players’ Association and Patagonia, have pledged to give their staff the time they need to participate in tomorrow’s UK general election, in order to encourage democratic engagement.

Called ‘Time to vote’, the pledge is described as “a non-partisan, business-led initiative to ensure no one in the UK has to choose between working and voting”.

According to its statement, the initiative follows a successful US rollout at the 2020 US election.

'It's a huge chance to take our country forward' says Keir Starmer in last national interview of the campaign

Keir Starmer said he hopes Thursday’s general election will see the UK start to rise to the challenge of populism, adding the contest offered a “huge chance to take our country forward”.

Speaking to the PA news agency in his last national interview of the campaign, the Labour leader stressed his desire to address the “shared challenge” presented by populism “across Europe and across the world”.

In recent days, after electoral successes for the populist National Rally party in France and polls suggesting Donald Trump could return to the White House, Starmer has spoken of the need to offer a “progressive” alternative to populism.

Asked by the PA news agency whether he felt pressure to prove that Labour’s programme could provide an alternative, he said: “Yes, I do think it’s really important that we make that case.”

On a campaign visit to East Kilbride, he said:

There are many challenges, probably more challenges now than there were over recent years, both here in the UK, here in Scotland and across the world, and we have to rise to those challenges and it has to be a progressive answer to those challenges.

Now obviously that starts tomorrow, I hope, in the UK, and here in Scotland as well, but it is then a shared challenge across Europe and across the world to meet the challenges of today with the answers of progressives.”

Asked how he felt about the prospect of entering Downing Street on Friday, he added:

While I recognise the responsibility, if we are elected to form a government tomorrow, I’ll see it all as an opportunity.

An opportunity to deliver 40,000 more NHS appointments a week, 6,500 more teachers, to grow our economy and get more money into people’s pockets. So yes, it’s huge, but it’s a huge chance to take our country forward.”

He made his comments after a campaign rally where he delivered his final message of encouragement to Scottish activists ahead of polling day.

Reflecting on the campaign on its last day, he told PA he had been “surprised by the negativity of the Tory campaign” with its focus on warning about a Labour “supermajority”.

He said:

They have literally nothing positive to say to the country and retreated into negativity.

I’m pleased that we have started positively and maintained that through the campaign and end positively, because we’ve got a strong case for change, and the message has been consistent from us because this is a change election.”

Updated

Lib Dem leader, Ed Davey, has written an opinion piece for the Guardian discussing his adventure-filled general election antics.

“The ‘stunts’ hopefully show that I do not take myself too seriously. But what I do treat with the utmost importance are the issues that people have raised with me and the stakes at this election, which could not be higher,” writes Davey.

You can read Davey’s full piece here:

Updated

As the final day of campaigning drew to a close, Rishi Sunak joined a Tory candidate doorknocking in the Hamble Valley constituency in Hampshire.

The prime minister and Paul Holmes knocked on doors in a street of prosperous-looking homes with neatly kept gardens, just minutes’ walk away from the Southern Parishes Conservative Club in the town of Hedge End.

Sunak had a largely warm welcome on the doors from the men and women he met, apart from one man who appeared to express concerns about austerity and his predecessors as prime minister, reports the PA news agency

Ahead of doorknocking, the prime minister helped members at the local Conservative club sorting campaign leaflets.

The PA news agency report that when Sunak left the room, a large number of those present were told they could stand down their efforts and were asked to return the rosettes they were wearing as the blue ribbons were in short supply.

Updated

The YouGov MRP polls (today’s is the third the firm has produced during this campaign) have tended to show the Tories doing better than some of the MRPs from other polling companies, and other firms have also tended to show Labour getting more seats.

But the YouGov model does show the Liberal Democrats doing better than they do under other MRPs. Today’s YouGov MRP has the Lib Dems projected to win 72 seats, a record for the party. YouGov says:

Our final model has the Liberal Democrats winning a record high 72 seats – more than six times their 2019 tally and surpassing their 2005 record of 62 seats.

Based on 2019 nominal results, Ed Davey’s party are set to take 62 seats from the Conservatives while two are gains from the SNP.

Our model suggests that the party will perform best in the South, taking 23 seats in the South West and 25 seats in the South East.

Outside of the South the party is set to win 18 seats. Some of the closest races are in Scotland – one to watch is Edinburgh West.

There are similar scenes in London, where we expect the Lib Dems to collect a total of six seats in the capital. This includes Wimbledon – a seat dating back to 1885 where the Liberal Democrats have never won before.

On top of the 72 seats they’re expected to win, our model suggests that the Liberal Democrats are a close second in five further constituencies, in each case challenging the Tories.

That’s all from me for today. Amy Sedghi is taking over now.

Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer

Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, Kiran Stacey reports. Starmer is 61.

If Keir Starmer becomes PM on Friday, Keir Starmer will be plunged straight into an international agenda with French elections on Sunday projected to deliver the first far-right government in Europe.

Speaking to reporters in Scotland, Starmer said he was “concerned” about the rise of the far right in Europe and it was “important” they were met with countervailing force in from a progressive UK.

I’m very concerned about the rise of populism and nationalism across Europe and elsewhere. There are many challenges in the world. And it is very important that we meet those with a progressive government.

He also said he would work with his counterparts, even those on the far right.

If we’re elected into government, we will work with whoever is elected into government by the American people, as we will work with any European leader who is elected in by the people of their country.

On Scottish matters he mocked the SNP, saying he wanted Sctoland “send a government” to Westminster and not an opposition party. But he ducked questions from about Scotland’s place in the union, saying “tomorrow is a straight choice between more of the Tories or Labour government”.

YouGov has published its final MRP poll of the campaign, and it suggests Labour is on course for a majority of 212.

Sky News says this would be the biggest majority for a party since the 1832 election, held after the Great Reform Act.

Nigel Farage has defended his decision to appear alongside the former champion boxer Derek Chisora at a campaign event in Clacton, Essex.

As PA Media reports, asked about Chisora’s conviction for assaulting a woman in 2010 and whether the boxer was a good role model for young men, the Reform UK leader said:

You know what? You show me someone who’s lived a perfect life and never been in trouble.With these young kids here, he’s a fantastic role model.

He’s got a huge following in the country and yeah, he is a good role model – imperfect as we all are.

Whitestone Insight has published an end-of-campaign poll with Labour on 38%, and the Tories on 21%.

Starmer says Sun endorsing Labour 'shows just how much this is changed party'

Keir Starmer has welcomed the news that the Sun has endorsed Labour. (See 3.24pm.) He said:

I am delighted to have the support of the Sun. It shows just how much this is a changed party, back in the service of working people, and that is the change on offer tomorrow in this election.

Opinium has published its final opinion poll of the campaign. It has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 21%.

According to the new More in Common MRP poll, Jeremy Corbyn is set to win in Islington North as an independent, beating the official Labour candidate by 43% to 37%.

It also says the former Labour MP Keith Vaz may be returned in Leicester East because the result there is too close to call.

Keir Starmer has been speaking at an event in East Kilbride where, using a line he has used successfully in speeches before, he attacked the SNP for wanting to use the election to send a message to London. “I don’t want Scotland to send a message,” he said. “I want Scotland to send a government.”

Lisa O’Carroll has the clip.

According to PA Media, Starmer arrived in Scotland after flying from Wales on the same jet that took England to the Euros in Germany. He sat in the same seat as England boss Gareth Southgate for the journey, part of a whirlwind tour of mainland Britain on the final day of the campaign, PA says.

Rishi Sunak fearful of losing his seat, sources say

Rishi Sunak has confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election, Anna Isaac reports.

If the More in Common MRP poll is right, Sunak has no need to worry. It has Sunak beating Labour in Richmond and Northallerton by 41% to 24%.

Key event

In Wales earlier today Keir Starmer posed for a picture with Stephen Kinnock, the shadow immigration minister, and Kinnock’s wife, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. Thorning-Schmidt is a former prime minister of Denmark. And it is probably safe to assume by now (see 4.04pm) that Starmer is a future PM of the UK.

More in Common has published its final MRP poll of the campaign. The poll, which has been organised in conjunction with the News Agents podcast, suggests Labour is on course to win 430 seats, a majority of 210, and that the Conservatives will hold just 126.

Of all the MRP polls produced during the campaign, the More in Common ones have been most favourable to the Tories. Peter Inglesby, a data scientist at Oxford University, has produced an excellent guide to what all the various MRPs and other election models are saying.

In its summary More in Common says:

The overall seat totals for the parties are projected to be:

Labour: 430 seats

Conservatives: 126 seats

Liberal Democrats: 52 seats

Scottish National Party: 16 seats

Reform UK: 2 seats

Plaid Cymru: 2 seats

Green Party: 1 seat

Other: 2 seats

The implied national vote share has Labour on 39%, Conservatives on 23%, Liberal Democrats on 14%, Reform on 13%, Green Party on 6%, SNP on 2% and other parties on 3%.

The model predicts that Labour will return to the Commons with 430 MPs and a majority of 210 - more seats than they won in 1997 - including a major recovery in Scotland, across the “Red wall” and in seats right across the country …

Overall, there are 113 seats with a majority less than 5%, where a last minute swing could change the results. There are 52 seats in a statistical tie with the projected winner less than 2 percentage points ahead of their closest rival – these seats are too close to call. These include seven seats where members of the cabinet, including potential Leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, are defending their seats and also seats such as Bristol Central where shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire faces a tight battle against Greens’ co-leader Carla Denyer …

The model also finds 99 marginal Conservative seats where control of the seat is decided by less than 5 percentage points. If the Tories were to win all of these marginal seats, the seat totals would sit at 177 for the Conservatives, 393 for Labour and 41 for the Liberal Democrats. If undecided voters don’t break for the Conservatives in the last day of the campaign, they could be left with as few as 78 seats.

Commenting on the results, Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common UK, said:

With hours to go before polls opening, our latest MRP suggests the Conservative party are heading for the worst result in their history, while Labour look set to achieve a record breaking majority of their own.

But it would be a mistake to assume that tomorrow doesn’t matter. With over a hundred seats still in the balance, the size of Labour’s victory, the extent to which the Conservatives are able to form a viable opposition, as well as the challenge they face from the Liberal Democrats, along with how many Green and Reform UK MPs join the House of Commons will all be determined by where those still undecided voters ultimately cast their ballot.

Sunak says he will take full responsibility for election result in final campaign Q&A with journalists

Rishi Sunak has done what might be his last question-and-answer session with journalists as prime minister, at a primary school in Hampshire, adopting a tone that was both rigorously on-message and at times almost elegiac as he assessed his time in office.

On the more everyday electoral message, Sunak refused to engage with slightly apocalyptic assessments of the Conservatives’ chances from Mel Stride and Suella Braverman. Asked if he was the only Tory not resigned to defeat he replied: “No, that’s definitely not right.”

He claimed that large numbers of people had yet to decide:

There are lots of people who have not made up their minds – millions and millions. When they go to the ballots tomorrow I would just ask everyone to separate the frustrations which they understandably have about me, the party and the past from what a Labour government would mean for their families specifically.

He also claimed that the lack of recent questions to him about the cost of living meant things were improving – others might argue that it is mainly because most people don’t expect him to win. He said:

All those questions you used to ask me about the cost of living, in this campaign they have dissipated. I think that is a reflection of the fact that the economy is doing better.

Before the Q&A, Sunak toured the village primary school, based in the seat of Tory MP Caroline Nokes, who would normally expect to win again at a canter. He helped year three and four children with a maths lesson before going to a reception class, where he and Nokes made plasticine pizza slices with two girls – one of which would be topped with “ketchup and worms”.

Sitting on a blue plastic chair after, Sunak was asked what his highlight as prime minister had been. He somewhat dodged the question, but did accept that his time in office had often been a struggle with outside events.

There are lots of things that you’d like to do, but the reality is that you’re dealing with the situation in front of you. That’s very much been the story of my political career in the last few years. That’s just reality. You’ve got to play the cards that you’ve been dealt.

Asked if he would take full responsibility for whatever the election result was, he replied: “Yes”.

He has two more stops in what would normally be seen as safe Tory areas, now under threat from the Lib Dems, and then that’s it – back to his Yorkshire constituency. And then, most likely, not back to living at Downing Street at all.

Updated

Sun backs Labour, saying Starmer 'has won the right to take charge'

The Sun has backed Keir Starmer to win the election.

It has just published a leader that describes the Tories as “a divided rabble, more interested in fighting themselves than running the country”. It is relatively lukewarm about Labour, but it says Starmer deserves the chance to try running the country. It says:

There are still plenty of concerns about Labour.

They do not have a clear plan for getting a grip on immigration, legal or illegal.

They have ruled out increases to VAT, income tax and national insurance – but, as independent thinktanks agree, under Labour taxes are going up. They just haven’t admitted which ones yet.

Sir Keir, an ex-Remainer, now talks of wanting closer ties with Brussels - which could mean sacrificing some of our newly won Brexit freedoms.

He has a mountain to climb, with a disillusioned electorate and low approval ratings.

But, by dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in No10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge.

There was reportedly much agonising within Sun HQ before it finally came off the fence and took a side. Althought it always likes to back the winner in general elections, some key figures at the paper are strongly opposed to Labour and News UK, the Rupert Murdoch company that publishes the Sun and the Times, is run by Rebekah Brooks, who was charged with phone-hacking offences when Keir Starmer was head of the Crown Prosecution Service. After a trial, she was cleared of all charges.

Updated

Carla Denyer, the Greens’ co-leader, has claimed that her party is the only one offering hope.

Speaking to the BBC this afternoon, she said:

The Green party is offering real hope in this campaign, hope that a small group of Green MPs can bring by pulling the incoming Labour government in the right direction, whether that’s on climate, whether that’s on tackling the cost of living crisis or the housing crisis.

Fairness has always been at the absolute core of Green party policy. Our approach is that the inequalities in our society, and climate change and environmental degradation, are two sides of the same coin. Some of the causes are the same and many of the solutions are the same.

So viewers will have seen me many times talking about one of our flagship policies, a nationwide home insulation programme, because that helps to bring down people’s bills, it brings down their carbon emissions, and it gives them warmer, more comfortable homes where they can be healthier. And then that in turn reduces costs on the NHS. So policies like this, Green policies, are a win, win, win.

Updated

And Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, provides a particularly good example of Tory in-fighting this afternoon; she’s almost turned on herself.

She wrote an article published in the Daily Telegraph this morning saying “it’s over” for her party and “we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition”.

But after Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, said more or less exactly the same thing on the Today programme (see 8.43am.), she posted this on X accusing him of being defeatist.

Cabinet Ministers conceding defeat before election day is saddening.

In F&W, we don’t give up. We keep fighting, with honesty, humility & determination, for every last vote.

Labour will be a disaster for our community and our country.

F&W is Fareham and Waterlooville, her constituency.

Braverman’s argument seems to be that it is OK for a former cabinet minister to admit the party has lost, but not a serving cabinet minister.

George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, has said it was a mistake for Mel Stride to say this morning that Labour is set to win with a huge majority. (See 8.43am.) Speaking on his Political Currency podcast, Osborne said:

That is the first time the incumbent government has basically conceded the election before polling day. And I guess it’s designed to say to Tory voters ‘Clip the wings of Labour, don’t give them such a majority’.

But I can’t see how it doesn’t just completely disincentivise Tories to vote.

I’ve been speaking to various Conservative candidates in the last 24-48 hours, and they are utterly despondent about the Conservative campaign. One just said to me this morning, as a government minister, ‘There’s not one redeeming feature to the Conservative campaign’.

Osborne said that, given how much Rishi Sunak has done to distance himself from Boris Johnson, it was odd to have Johnson introduce Sunak at an event last night. “What was the point of changing in the first place?”

And Osborne said tomorrow night, after polls close, he expected Tory discipline to “completely collapse”, with senior figures turning on each other.

People planning to vote Labour at this election are noticeably less enthusiastic about them than the people who voted Labour in 2015, 2017 or 2019, according to the Financial Times’ chief data reporter, John Burn-Murdoch.

The lack of enthusiasm for Labour at this election really is striking.

Among those who plan to vote Labour tomorrow, the party is much less well-liked than in 2019, 2017 or 2015 (no data before that).

Quite a flimsy voter coalition that could unravel in the absence of results.

Burn-Murdoch says this is partly a consequence Labour now getting support from a much wider pool of voters (including people who previously weren’te party supporters).

The Conservatives weren’t especially popular with their backers in 2019 (mainly a vote for Brexit and against Corbyn), and this was a big part of why they fell so far since then, but Lab voters this time are even less enthusiastic about their party than Tory voters were in 2019.

Of course, all that matters tomorrow is winning more seats than the opponents, and Starmer’s Labour will manage that very easily.

But if they don’t start delivering tangible results, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Labour start bleeding votes in all directions.

NB some of this is a compositional effect.

One of the reasons Starmer is succeeding where Corbyn didn’t is that his support spans a much broader range of voter types. This is much more electorally efficient than Corbyn’s coalition, but means fewer die-hards.

Corbyn’s Labour was more popular among its backers, but they were a narrower section of the electorate, clustered more inefficiently in safe seats, so there is a sense in which Starmer has traded off popularity with the base for greater electoral success.

Increased vote efficiency? I think so yep.

It’s one reason I find “Labour’s vote efficiency has improved” analysis a bit dull.

Most of the increase in efficiency is just what happens when swing voters all decide they hate the incumbent, rather than due to strategic genius.

Andrew Griffith, the science minister, was speaking on behalf of the Tories on Radio 4’s World at One. Asked if he agreed with Suella Braverman that it was all over for his party (see 7.48am), he replied:

No, not at all. Nobody should be taking the British people for granted.

No criminal offences were committed by Reform UK activists campaigning for Nigel Farage who were filmed by an undercover journalist for Channel 4, Essex police said. The force said in a statement:

Having assessed the comments made during a Channel 4 news programme, and all other information available to us, we have concluded that no criminal offences have taken place.

How Sunak, Starmer and Davey have all been campaigning largely in what were safe Tory seats

Since day one of the election campaign, Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and Ed Davey have focused almost exclusively on visiting constituencies that are being defended by the Conservatives, PA Media reports. PA says:

This is perhaps not a surprise, given the Tories won a near-landslide of seats at the last election in 2019, many of which Labour and the Lib Dems are hoping to gain on 4 July.

But what is striking is the size of some of the Tory majorities in the places all three leaders have visited.

Rishi Sunak has so far held events in 54 different constituencies since the first full day of the campaign on 23 May, according to data compiled by PA.

Some 45 of these 54 seats are Conservative defences, based on notional results for the 2019 election that take into account the boundary changes that are in place this year.

The 45 Tory constituencies visited by Sunak include nine where his party is defending enormous notional majorities of more than 20,000, such as Hinckley & Bosworth in Leicestershire (22,851), Thirsk & Malton in North Yorkshire (23,337) and Honiton & Sidmouth in Devon (26,229).

Some 29 of the 45 seats have sizeable Tory majorities of over 10,000 and include places like Macclesfield in Cheshire, which has been won by the Conservatives at every general election since 1918; Banbury in Oxfordshire, won by the Tories at every election since 1922; and Stratford-on-Avon in Warwickshire, won by the Conservatives at every election since 1950.

Meanwhile Keir Starmer and Ed Davey have campaigned in Tory-held constituencies that need huge swings in the share of the vote to change hands, such as Cannock Chase in Staffordshire, where the notional Conservative majority is 19,879 and which Labour needs a 21.5-percentage point swing to gain; and Chichester in West Sussex, where the Tory majority is 19,622 and the Lib Dems need a swing of 19.3 percentage points.

By the end of Wednesday, Starmer is due to have visited 57 different seats during the campaign, including 43 being defended by the Conservatives; while Davey will have clocked up 49 different constituencies, of which 41 are Tory defences.

If, as expected, Keir Starmer becomes prime minister on Friday, he will quickly be pitched in to international summitry. He will go to Washington next week for a Nato summit, and a week later he will host the European Political Community conference of European leaders at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire.

But one person who may not be at the EPC meeting is the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.

The EPC, previously held in Prague, Moldova and Granada, is the brainchild of Emmanuel Macron and designed to create an informal summit to help bind and align EU and non-EU countries including the UK.

But the date, 18 July, clashes with the first sitting of the new European parliament and draft schedules show Von der Leyen will be presenting her political programme and consulting with political parties.

UK will be mostly dry for polling day – but strong gusts forecast for Scotland

Polling day tomorrow is likely to be dry for most of the UK with only occasional showers in the north of England, some heavier in Scotland, Jamie Grearson reports.

Farage claims return of Boris Johnson won't have helped Tories

It is assumed that Boris Johnson might appeal to former Tory voters who are inclined to vote for Reform UK. But, as the Telegraph reports, Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has claimed that Johnson’s appearance at a campaign event last night (see 10.48am) won’t help the Tories. Farage told TalkTV:

[Johnson] is the man with the big majority. He is the man that opened the door to mass migration. He is the guy that brought in loopy net zero policies.

He is the man that couldn’t tell the truth to the House of Commons. He won’t have done them any good at all.

New government will need emergency measures to avert crisis in prisons, says thinktank

One of the Sun’s leading articles today says, if Labour does win, the first crisis it will face could be caused by jail overcrowding. Labour should start building new prisons immediately, it says.

The Institute for Goverment has published a report on just this topic today. Like the Sun, it says the crisis will hit Labour immediately, because jails in England and Wales are just days away from being full. But, unlike the Sun, it says the new government will have to create space by ensuring fewer people get locked up. Here are some of the options it recommends.

-Lowering the point of automatic release for most offenders (not serious violent or sexual offenders) from 50% through their sentence to 40-45% - this option is likely to be necessary to deliver the sufficient space in the available time even if other options are also used.

-Introducing a queuing system for immediate custodial sentences, so that lower-risk offenders do not go to prison straightaway but begin their sentence under house arrest until a prison space becomes available.

-Allowing sentences up to three years – up from two – to be suspended, meaning the offender does not have to go to prison as long as they do not commit any further offences and abide by any conditions attached.

-Reducing or removing supervision post-release for offenders serving sentences under 12 months would substantially cut the number of recalls.

Evening Standard backs Labour - but the Sun and the Times still on the fence

The Evening Standard has endorsed Labour.

But two other London-based newspapers have conspicuously failed to endorse any party (yet?). There has been considerable interest in what the Sun and the Times, which are both owned by Rupert Murdoch, might do. In the past the Sun in particular sought to make its endorsement a big political story, and under Murdoch it has always backed the winner.

But it has not come down on one side or the other during the campaign, and today its leader articles barely mention the election. The Times has published a long leader which does not endorse the Tories, but which does largely praise Rishi Sunak. It says Labour will win because “the Herculean task of restoring [the Conservative party’s] reputation for competence and probity was beyond him.”

Laurence Fox, the former actor and leader of the Reclaim party, has urged its supporters to vote for Reform UK in order the maximise the loss suffered by the Conservative party.

While Reclaim’s support is negligible, it has been the recipient of a large amount of funding by the former Tory donor Jeremy Hosking, who gave to £1,153,300 in donations to the party in 2021. For a period, the former Tory Andrew Bridgen was a Reclaim MP.

Fox, who joined the far-right activist Tommy Robinson on stage during a St George’s Day event in central London in April, used an email to supporters to praise Nigel Farage for “energising” the campaign and showing up the other political leaders as “dull or cringeworthy”. He went on:

I was keen to write to you and say that I believe Reclaim’s interests are being unequivocally furthered by Nigel in this election. As a result, I am delighted to tell you I am an enthusiastic voter for Reform on Thursday.

Sunak claims Labour might lose majority if 'just 130,000 people' were to vote differently

Rishi Sunak has dismissed claims that the election is all over, arguing that the votes of just 130,000 people could be enough to deprive Labour of a majority.

Speaking on ITV’s This Morning, where it was put to him that Mel Stride has already, in effect, conceded the election is over (see 8.43am), Sunak replied:

He wasn’t quite saying that. Actually, you know, what Mel was doing was warning of what a very large Labour majority, unchecked, would mean for people.”

I’m fighting hard for every vote. Here’s what I’d say … We just saw some analysis which showed that just 130,000 people can make the difference in this election. So, everyone watching who thinks, ‘oh, this is all a foregone conclusion’, it’s not.

The Tories have repeatedly claimed that just 130,000 votes could change the results in more than 100 constituencies. They say this would mark the “difference between a supermajority and no majority.”.

They justify this claim by citing an analysis published by the Times last month. Using figures from a YouGov MRP poll, the Times said:

Sir Keir Starmer is on course for a landslide victory, but Labour’s vote is so narrowly distributed that even a small swing could have dramatic consequences in terms of the number of seats the party wins, with one shadow cabinet minister warning that the election was “not a done deal”.

Just 34,000 swing voters in key seats could halve Labour’s projected 200 majority, according to analysis of polling data. Labour would lose its notional majority entirely if only 132,000 voters in the tightest races opted for the next-placed party.

But the problem with analysis like this is that you cannot shift votes in key seats without also shifting votes nationally, and so in practice far more people need to change their minds. After the 2017 election Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters argued that he was just 2,227 votes away from being able to form a government. Experts dismissed the claim; nationally, the Tories were ahead of Labour by around 700,000 votes.

The Times analysis said “it would have taken 206,000 voters to have changed their ballot in 2019 for Boris Johnson to have lost 100 seats”. But nationally, in that election, Johnson was ahead of Labour by about 3.7m votes.

Updated

In his appearance on ITV’s This Morning, Rishi Sunak was also asked if he had a favourite meal that he would choose if he has to have a final meal at No 10 later this week. Rather surprisingly, he replied:

Well, my favourite meal generally is sandwiches. You know, I’m a big sandwich person.

But, actually, I always have on election night – we have a bit of a tradition, my local butcher, one of my local butchers called Kitson’s in Northallerton High Street, always do a special election pie.

Sunak has never been seen as a great lover of food. He used to fast on Mondays, although he recently admitted that he has had to give that up because the election campaign is too exhausting.

Sunak rejects claim Tory attack on Starmer over wanting to spend Friday night with family disrespectful to Jewish people

Rishi Sunak was on ITV’s This Morning earlier, where he was talking about reports that the Conservative party has offended some Jewish figures by attacking Keir Starmer for saying that, if he becomes PM, he will trying to continue his habit of keeping Friday evenings free for family meals.

Starmer has suggested this is primarily about ensuring that he is able to spend time with his children. But his wife is of Jewish heritage and he has also said that part of the reason Fridays are special for the family is because it is a time they often set aside for family prayer, in accordance with Shabbat.

Sunak dismissed the notion Tory criticism of this was disrespectful to people of Jewish faith. Asked about the row, he said:

I think what Keir was saying he was with his kids on a Friday night out watching cheerleading or kickboxing rather than doing that. But the point is this, everyone’s going to do this job in a different way …

One of the things I’ve spoken about a lot is that doing this job means I’m not as good as dad, I’m not as good a husband, as I would love to be, and that comes with the territory of being in public service and having the responsibility to be prime minister, to do a great job for everyone who’s watching.

Updated

Several polling companies will be releasing their final polls today. This is from Techne UK.

John Swinney claims Labour does not need any Scottish MPs to win election

John Swinney, the Scottish first minister and SNP leader, has said that a Labour victory at the election is inevitable and that Keir Starmer won’t need any extra MPs from Scotland to win. Speaking to the BBC, he said that was why Scottish people should vote SNP.

Labour doesn’t need any Scottish MPs to win this election. For Scotland, do we want to have Labour MPs going from Scotland who will just do what they’re told by Keir Starmer? Or do they want SNP MPs who will stand up for Scotland, protect the Scottish interest and campaign against the austerity that the Labour party is going to impose on Scotland?

Starmer says having Boris Johnson campaigning for Tories just reminds voters how 'chaotic and divided' they have been

Keir Starmer has also said he was not worried by Boris Johnson’s surprise appearance at a Tory campaign event last night, saying the former PM just illustrated how “chaotic and divided” his party had been.

Speaking to reporters in Wales, and asked if he was worried that Johnson might encourage a late surge in Tory votes, Starmer replied:

No, I’m not worried in the slightest, having argued for six weeks that they’re chaotic and divided, to bring out exhibit A, with 24 hours to go, just vindicated the argument I’ve been making.

I think Rishi [Sunak] started campaigning with [David] Cameron at his side, I don’t think that worked so very well. Then he borrowed Liz Truss’ playbook and put unfunded commitments in his manifesto, and then he wheeled out Boris Johnson last night, it makes my case for me.

I’m only assuming that some time about lunchtime today there’ll be a joint press conference with Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak on economic stability for the country going forward, I suspect that’s what’s coming next.

This is what John Crace wrote about Johnson’’s speech in his Guardian sketch.

There was a helicopter hanging from the ceiling above where a crowd of 400 people were gathered. Half of them security guards. The Saigon jokes wrote themselves. Sometimes I think the Tories are running the campaign for my benefit …

Eventually the Govester fell over, to be replaced by … Johnson. It’s almost as if the Tories want to lose this election by even more than predicted. Who to bring out but the man the Tories themselves had concluded was unfit to govern? The man most of the country are happy to forget. The audience went wild. “Boris, Boris”, they cheered. Louder than for Rish!. Natch.

What followed was classic Boris. He really doesn’t care. He appears to hate Rish! and so the only reason he would bother to appear was because he wanted to dance on Sunak’s grave.

He said he had been working tirelessly throughout the election. By going on holiday. He looked terrible. Wherever he’s been, it’s done him the world of harm. He rambled on about his own achievements for about 10 minutes. Not a word of praise for Rish!. The two did not appear to even return a glance with one another. Let alone shake hands. He ended by saying that Starmer would not stand up to Putin. It would have been laughable if it hadn’t been so tragic.

Starmer claims Tories talking up chances of Labour landslide as 'voter suppression' tactic

Keir Starmer has accused the Tories of talking up the chances of a Labour majority as a “voter suppression” tactic.

Asked to respond to what Mel Stride said this morning about Labour being on course for a record majority (see 8.43am), Starmer replied:

It is more of the same. It’s really voter suppression. It’s trying to get people to stay at home rather than go out and vote.

I say, if you want change, you have to vote for it. I want people to be part of the change.

I know there are very close constituencies across the country. I don’t take anything for granted. I respect the voters and I know that we have to earn every vote until 10 o’clock tomorrow night and we will do that.

Voter suppression is a term used to describe tactics designed to stop supporters of rival parties turning out to vote. It can cover legal and relatively normal activities, like claiming the result is a foregone conclusion, although in some countries, like the US, far more sinister versions of this approach have been used.

Keir Starmer is visiting Wales, Scotland and England today. At his first stop in Camarthenshire he stressed that many voters were still undecided. This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby.

Starmer in Wales: “There are a lot of undecided voters, still lots of constituencies that will come down to a few 100 votes that’ll make the difference & people need convincing… to vote for change” > told by one figure there at least 60-70 seats that could still go either way

Is there such a thing as a supermajority?

A reader asks:

In UK election (sorry I’m from Australia) what is meant by a supermajority and why does it matter?

When Conservative politicians talk about a “supermajority”, they are just using the word to mean a very big majority (anything over 150 would reasonably count). In the British political system, a supermajority is not a real constitutional benchmark.

But in some countries a supermajority (such as two-thirds) is required for some types of constitutional change and the Tories (and the pro-Tory papers, which have adopted the phrase with enthusiasm) seem to be using the phrase repeatedly because, in the minds of some voters, it conveys the impression that a Keir Starmer government would have some special power to rig the system in its favour.

It wouldn’t, but it would not need such a power anyway; in the UK, a government with a decent majority can introduce sweeping changes relatively easily.

There are some minor exceptions. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a government needed two thirds of MPs to vote for an early election. But that law has now been abolished. And, as James Ball from the New European explains here, if Labour wanted to change the royal charter for press regulation, passed under the coalition but ignored by most big newspapers, it would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons.

Munira Wilson has defended Ed Davey’s decision to run an election campaign dominated by outdoor adventure photo opportunities, telling LBC the Lib Dem leader had struck a balance between “really serious issues” and “not taking himself too seriously, which I think politicians too often do.”

Asked if stunts like paddleboarding and bungee jumping had worked, Wilson, the party’s education spokersperson, said :

Well, we’re all talking about it and we are talking about the issues. I think he’s really taken himself not very seriously to shine a spotlight on serious issues.

She said Davey had highlighted issues like health, social care, sewage in rivers and seas, and the cost of living crisis.

Labour condemns harassment of its candidates and in pro-Palestinian areas

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, has condemned the harassment of Labour candidates and canvassers, amid reports of intimidation in pro-Palestinian areas across the country, Kiran Stacey reports.

Braverman attacks Sunak over Tories continuing to take cash from Frank Hester after racist comments row

There is more evidence of the fact that the Tories have, in practice, conceded the general election in the Daily Telegraph, where Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, has kicked off the inquest into what went wrong. As Helen reported in an earlier post (see 7.48am), Braverman’s main argument is voters have abandoned the Tories because they failed to “to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years”.

But, in a passage that slightly undermines her “woke” argument, Braverman also criticises the Conservatives for continuing to accept money from Frank Hester after the Guardian revealed that he had made comments about Diane Abbott, at a private meeting with staff, that were widely condemned as racist.

Braverman says:

Reform demonstrably failed to vet its candidates properly and these people should be nowhere near public life. I’ve been on the receiving end of racism myself and it’s right that the PM called it out. But cries of hurt and anger look less powerful when the Conservative Party was perfectly happy to take the money from Frank Hester. Remarks about hating black women were glossed over in the name of filling our party coffers. I don’t follow the logic. Nor do the voters. Whatever “the smartest men in the room” might privately think, the public are not in fact mugs.

Most Tories condemned what Hester said, but hardly any of them said the party should stop taking money from him. (They justified accepting his donations on the grounds that Hester apologised, even though he just apologised for being offensive, not accepting that his words were racist.) Braverman is probably the first senior figure in the party to make this point. It is intended as a direct criticism of Sunak, whose allies regularly describe him as “the smartest man in the room”.

Labour likely to win with 'largest majority this country has ever seen', Tory cabinet minister Mel Stride claims

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Helen Sullivan.

Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, has been the lead voice for the Conservative party on the morning broadast round during the election, but no one would claim that he is the most exciting politician in Britain. Today, though, he said something very striking. Election concessions normally come at around 4am on Friday morning, but on the Today programme Stride delivered what sounded very much like a formal concession of defeat. He told the programme:

I totally accept that, where the polls are at the moment, means that tomorrow is likely to see the largest Labour landslide majority, the largest majority that this country has ever seen. Much bigger than 1997, bigger even than the National government in 1931.

What, therefore, matters now is what kind of opposition do we have, what kind of ability to scrutinise government is there within parliament.

This is a huge claim. And it is an exaggerated one; the National government in 1931 had a majority of 492, which not even the wildest MRP poll is predicting this time round. But the mainstream expectation from pollsters is that Labour will have a bigger majority on Friday than Tony Blair did in 1997 (179). Last night the polling firm Survation said Labour was “99% certain to win more seat than in 1997”.

Of course, Stride is not saying this because he wants to provide Today listeners with impartial analysis. It is an escalated version of the Tory plan to talk up the prospect of a Labour “supermajority” and it has two aims: first, to encourage people worried about the prospect of a Labour majority to vote Tory; and, second (and perhaps more importantly – there are more people in this group), to encourage people who are not passionately anti-Labour to think they can safely stay at home tomorrow.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on X (Twitter). I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use X; I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

The Today programme’s Mishal Husain asks Pat McFadden, Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator, how Labour would work with a far right government in France on small boats, if Le Pen is elected.

“It’s for other countries to elect their leaders, I’m focussed on our own election” he says.

“It’s an international problem and we have to work with whoever gets elected”, he says.

Asked if he accepts it will be a “serious challenge”, he says there will be “many serious challenges”.

Updated

The Today programme’s Mishal Husain asks McFadden, Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator, when people can expect to feel their circumstances have changed.

McFadden talks about the six first steps, but despite Husain’s prompting, doesn’t give a timeframe.

He believes in “under promise and over deliver”, but he doesn’t commit to a time frame.

Pat McFadden: I’ve had boiled eggs that have lasted longer than the Tory 'show of unity'

Pat McFadden, Labour’s National Campaign Coordinator, criticised the “show of unity” said to be displayed within the Conservative Party when former prime minister Boris Johnson appeared at a rally on Tuesday night –and commented on Suella Braverman’s article in the Telegraph.

McFadden told Times Radio: “The show of unity, I’ve had boiled eggs that have lasted longer than this show of unity.

“Almost before he (Mr Johnson) was finished speaking, we had Suella Braverman in The Telegraph saying that it had all been a terrible mess. I think maybe that is the Conservatives’ problem, is that it is all quite late for Boris to now be throwing his weight behind a prime minister, when, I think - to borrow a phrase from Northern Ireland - even the dogs in the street know there’s not a lot of love lost there.”

Asked if he would “fear” going up against Mr Johnson as a campaigner or prime minister more than Sunak, he told the programme:

“I think Boris destroyed his credibility through the whole ‘partygate’ and destruction of standards in public life.”

He claimed that “people saw through the act a little bit” and realised in elected government “they want to know what the sense of direction is going to be”.

Labour slips behind SNP in new poll

Labour has slipped behind the SNP days before election day, a new poll suggests.

PA reports that a survey by Savanta for The Scotsman suggests 31% of Scots could vote Labour on Thursday, three points down on the last poll, while support for the SNP is unchanged at 34%.

According to analysis from Professor John Curtice, Labour, which won just one seat north of the border in the 2019 election, is on course for 22 Scottish MPs while the SNP would keep 24 seats.

The poll, carried out between 28 June and 2 July, suggests the Conservatives are on 15%, up one point, while the Liberal Democrats are at 9%, up two points on the last poll earlier in June.

The latest poll of 1,083 Scottish adults found 6% said they would back Reform UK, no change since the last poll, while the Greens were up one point at 3%, and 2% said they would vote for other parties.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said:

Our final Scottish voting intention before 4 July suggests the SNP is ahead of Labour, showing a modest improvement and potentially blunting their losses on election night.

If our results were reflected on polling day, John Swinney’s election as SNP leader looks like it will have come just in the nick of time.

That being said, Labour’s efficient vote, in particular around the central belt, will still mean it’s likely going to be a very good evening for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer.

Their majority is no longer dependent on Scotland, but they’ll want to squeeze the SNP as much as they can.”

On BBC Radio Four, Mel Stride was asked whether he thinks public services are better than they were in 2010.

“Yes, I think many of them absolutely are, despite Covid and the pressures that we faced with inflation, because of the war in Ukraine, etc,” he said.

Asked whether he had accepted that the Tories had lost the election, the Work and Pensions Secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I have accepted that where the polls are at the moment - and it seems highly unlikely that they are very, very wrong, because they’ve been consistently in the same place for some time - that we are therefore tomorrow highly likely to be in a situation where we have the largest majority that any party has ever achieved.”

Updated

We're on the brink of a Labour landslide, says Tory minister

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride has just told Times Radio, “there will be plenty of time” for “post-mortems” of the Conservatives’ performance after polling day, as well as “where the party goes in the future”.

He suggested his party was the only one that could “hold this (Labour) government to account” as he repeated Tory warnings of a “supermajority”.

He said “we are right on the brink of a very perilous situation” with a “very weak and marginalised opposition”.

Asked if he thought there was anything the Conservatives could have done during the campaign to increase support, Mr Stride told Times Radio:

Tempted though I am to come up with all sorts of speculations on this, I think we need to get through and out the other side of the General Election tomorrow, and then there will be plenty of time for us to do post-mortems and dissect what should or shouldn’t have been done in the past, or importantly where the party goes in the future.

…

We’re on the brink, probably, of the largest landslide we’ve ever seen in this country ... what we have to have is some balance within our parliament.

…

I think we’re right on the brink of a very perilous situation.

Updated

Survation poll 99% certain of Labour landslide

A forecast by polling company Survation shows Labour winning 484 of the 650 seats in parliament, far more than the 418 won by the party’s former leader Tony Blair in his famous 1997 landslide win and the most in its history.

The poll of 34,559 people predicts Conservatives will win just 64 seats, which would be the fewest since the party was founded in 1834.

Labour is on course to win around 484 seats, according to the poll, more than it did when Tony Blair took office in 1997.

The polling company says a Labour landslide is “99% certain”.

Suella Braverman: 'It's over'

Former home secretary Suella Braverman has urged the Conservative Party to “read the writing on the wall” and “prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition”.

Writing in The Telegraph, Braverman says victory should no longer be the goal for the Tories.

“Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition,” she writes.

“One needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over, and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.”

Braverman blames the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

It is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right.

The critics will cite Boris [Johnson], Liz [Truss], Rwanda, and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our ‘centrist’ vote.

The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform. Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years.

We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us.”

Braverman says the Tories need “a searingly honest post-match analysis”, “because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good or having a chance to redeem it in due course.

“Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.”

Updated

Thursday’s general election looks likely to be a historic pivot: one of those long-remembered moments when the established order at Westminster is swept away by what Jim Callaghan, the victim of one such shift in 1979, called a “sea change in politics”.

Yet as Guardian reporters fanned out across the UK during the campaign to spend time talking to voters and non-voters in 15 varied constituencies for the Path to power series, they found precious little hope that things will be different come 5 July.

Every constituency had its own particular concerns that bubbled up repeatedly in conversation: in Waveney Valley it was unwanted pylons, in Burnley it was the Gaza conflict and in Clacton it was immigration.

But several common threads run through much of the reporting, forming a dark narrative about the state of Britain and its people as Labour prepares to take power.

Everywhere reporters went, the infrastructure that makes up everyday life, from GP surgeries to libraries to roads, has been eroded by more than a decade of underinvestment:

Can Starmer keep his family out of the spotlight?

Victoria Starmer joined Starmer on stage at the launch of Labour’s campaign, but has otherwise rarely been seen on the trail. Keir Starmer has said that if he’s elected, “she’s absolutely going to carry on working, she wants to and she loves it. It’s also good for me because it gives me an insight into the NHS.”

The Guardian’s Gaby Hinsliff, interviewed by Rupert Neate in today’s First Edition, says:

It’s 2024, I do not care who the PM is married to it shouldn’t matter,” she says. “We shouldn’t be talking about it; it only matters if there is a conflict of interest. I don’t take my husband to work, and I can’t think why anyone else should have to.”

“Grazia readers have moved on…They expect to see female politicians interviewed in their own right and in their professional capacity. If a leader can’t find a way to make themselves relatable without a spouse, perhaps they shouldn’t be a leader. It was also sad that Theresa May felt she had to explain why she didn’t have children, and disappointing that Andrea Leadsom [who challenged May for the leadership in 2016] suggested that having children made her a better choice to be prime minister. We should have moved beyond all this.”

The Starmers are fiercely protective of their children’s privacy.

“The degree to which they have kept their children out of [the spotlight] so far is impressive, and not something a PM has tried before,” Hinsliff says. “I really respect them for it, and wish them the best of luck trying to preserve it. But it is going to be difficult.”

Rishi Sunak has mostly kept his children out of the public eye, but they have been seen at some events including a street party on Downing Street to celebrate the King’s coronation, and he posted a photo of them on Instagram during his bid for the Tory party leadership in 2022. He also described them as “the experts of [the climate crisis] in my household”.

Updated

Welsh government commits to making lying in politics illegal

The Labour-led Welsh government has committed to introduce “globally pioneering” legislation that would in effect make lying in politics there illegal.

Members of the Senedd described it as a historic moment that would combat the “existential threat” that lying in politics poses to democracy.

After a passionate and dramatic debate in the Welsh parliament on Tuesday evening, the government’s counsel general, Mick Antoniw, said the legislation would be introduced before the next Welsh elections in two years’ time.

He said: “The Welsh government will bring forward legislation before 2026 for the disqualification of members and candidates found guilty of deliberate deception through an independent judicial process.”

Antoniw said the practical details of how a law to tackle lying would work would need to be worked out and he called for cross-party cooperation.

Updated

Parties pitch for votes on final day of the campaign

With just one sleep to go, here is how party leaders are spending their last day before voting day – and the messages they’ll be trying to drive home:

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will end his campaign trail in the South East. He has used th the word ‘supermajority’ in three tweets in the last hour. As in stop the Labour / tax-raising supermajority.

He has shared his fears of a Labour “supermajority” and said in an overnight statement: “If you are worried about an unchecked, unaccountable Labour government you can stop that by offering us your support so we can stand up for you and be your voice in the next Parliament.”

In a marathon final leg of his tour, Labour leader Keir Starmer will speak to voters in England, Scotland and Wales.

“We’re out in constituencies where we haven’t necessarily won before, because we think that many people are disillusioned with what they’ve seen in the last 14 years,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

“We’re a changed Labour Party and we’re constantly putting our case forward, still smiling, still with a spring in our step that we’re probably the only positive campaign left now.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey will hit the road again to round off his stunt-packed campaign.

There is no time to slip into a Dryrobe and warm up after surf lessons on the Cornish coast, because party chiefs have several stops lined up on Sir Ed’s final pre-vote tour of southern England.

Wrapping up his party’s thread on care, which he has spoken about several times on the campaign trail, Davey said: “Throughout this campaign, I’ve been so moved by all the people I’ve spoken to or who have got in touch to discuss their experiences caring for loved ones.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will take another trip to the Essex seaside constituency which he is contesting. Survation pollsters have said Clacton is the only constituency where Reform UK has a confident lead, but they could take 16 seats at an “upper end” estimate.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney has told voters some seats will be won or lost “by only a handful of votes”.

In his final pitch, he said: “Be certain about one thing - your vote will matter. It could make all the difference.”

Updated

This morning's front pages

It has just gone 7am: let’s look at today’s stop stories. With 24 hours to go until polls open, the Guardian leads with Keir Starmer accusing the Conservatives of desperate tactics amid claims that Tory criticism of his defence of family time was insensitive and had antisemitic undertones.

The Times has Boris Johnson saying a Labour landslide would be “pregnant with horrors”:

The i: Prisons crisis for new government on day one

The Financial Times leads with water groups facing lawsuits, but also carries the interesting headline, “Rich offload assets as concerns mount over Labour’s capital gains tax agenda”.

The Independent: The final poll - Tories brace for wipeout

The Daily Mirror: Is it coming home? 14 years of hurt never stopped us dreaming

The Daily Express: Rishi: Your vote counts, your voice counts… please use it wisely

The Daily Mail: Boris and Rishi unite to stop Starmergeddon

The Daily Record carries a letter from Starmer saying “Let’s send a Labour government to Westminster with Scotland at its beating heart”:

The Yorkshire Post: ‘Part-time’ attacks on Starmer ‘must stop’

Finally, the Daily Star with an endorsement from Kim Wilde for Count Binface:

Jewish figures criticise ‘stigmatising’ Tory attack on Starmer family time

Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of desperate tactics amid claims that Tory criticism of his defence of family time was insensitive and had antisemitic undertones.

Ben Quinn, Peter Walker and Kiran Stacey report:

With Rishi Sunak embarking on a marathon day of campaigning, beginning with a pre-dawn visit to a distribution centre and closing with a late-night rally, Tory ministers and aides sought to contrast these efforts with what they termed Starmer’s “part-time” approach.

As an increasingly personal election campaign neared its end, the Conservatives pushed out “final warnings” about what they said a massive Labour majority would mean for taxes, migration and other policy areas.

Downing Street chiefs believe the criticism of Starmer for saying he would maintain his current habit of trying to spend time with his wife and children after 6pm on Fridays “pretty well come what may” has resonated with voters.

However, it has sparked an angry backlash, with senior Jewish figures saying the decision to target such a culturally significant time of the week – Starmer’s wife, Victoria, comes from a Jewish family – was ill-judged and deeply unfair.

“I would have thought to anybody it’s blindingly obvious that a Friday night is quite important in some religions and faiths,” Starmer told reporters during a campaign stopover in Derbyshire.

Calling the attacks “laughably pathetic”, the Labour leader said his comments in a radio interview the day before had simply been to set out how he tried to keep Friday evenings aside for his family and would if elected prime minister, adding: “But I know very well it’s going to be really difficult to do it.”

Starmer said the aim was to create “protected time” for his children, his wife and her father. “Obviously her dad’s side of the family is Jewish, as people will appreciate, and we use that for family prayers – not every Friday, but not infrequently.

“That doesn’t mean I’ve never had to work on a Friday, of course it doesn’t. Plenty of times I haven’t been able to do it, but I try to protect that time, I’d like to try and protect it in the future.”

Updated

Zadie Smith on hope after 14 years of the Tories

Zadie Smith has written a long piece for the Guardian this morning on the hope for real change –and a return to the sort of free, functional healthcare and education she once boasted about to Americans – after 14 years of Tory rule:

You should think of yourself (I said to myself) as something like the Ancient Mariner, just repeating over and over your tale of woe, in the hope that the next time the big bright bird of potential equity flies past the ship of state, we might remember what it looks like, and what it can do, and not let any Tories or neoliberals rush up on to the deck to shoot it down.

This Ancient Mariner metaphor stood me in pretty good stead until I settled in the US, around 2010, returning 10 years later to a Britain I barely recognised. At this point, I became Rip Van Winkle. The list of things that have boggled my mind in the past four years is too long to recount here, but the final straw came just a few weeks ago, while I was washing up. The radio was on. A government spokesperson was extolling the virtues of conscription. Where else (asked the spokesperson) can people of different classes and races and genders meet each other on a more or less equal footing and pursue a common goal? Where else in modern-day Britain can community be fostered and encouraged, and people allowed a space in which their human capacities, whatever they may be, can flourish? Where else, I ask you, where else?

I couldn’t work out if this spokesperson was so dense that he truly couldn’t think of an alternative answer to his own query, or if this was one of those very unfunny comedy skits you sometimes find yourself listening to when your hands are otherwise occupied with soap suds. But no: he was 100% serious. The thought that a well-funded state school would provide all of the above had truly never occurred to him. And then I realised: oh Jesus, if things carry on as they are, one day he’ll be right.

Gordon Brown: Use this election to reject the Farage version of Britain

Former PM and Labour leader Gordon Brown, in an opinion piece for the Guardian, has urged voters to, “reject the Farage version of Britain and to get our real country back, and to show that greatness comes from standing tall in defence of our principles. To show that greatness comes from standing tall and moving together in defence of your culture, your history and your values.”

Even a small number of votes for Reform UK will see the SNP handed seats in Scotland, according to the Conservatives.

The party has continued its warnings against its traditional voters defecting to Nigel Farage’s party on the eve of polling day.

Opinion polls indicate the SNP and Labour are engaged in a two-way race north of the border, with seat projections suggesting the Tories may hold on to the same number of seats they won in the previous election.

In recent days, the party has urged Scottish voters not to shift to Reform.

Party chairman Craig Hoy said:

Many seats in Scotland are a straight contest between the SNP and Scottish Conservatives. In those key seats, no other party can win. Reform, Labour and the Lib Dems are simply too far behind. Even a small number of votes for Reform could lead to big wins for the SNP.”

Despite polling suggesting a Labour surge, Hoy appeared to suggest it is his party that can inflict a defeat on the SNP.

“The opportunity is within our grasp to hand the SNP their worst election defeat in more than a decade, but just a few people choosing to vote Reform could put all that at risk,” he added.

“In key seats up and down Scotland, only a vote for the Scottish Conservatives can beat the SNP and get the focus on to the issues that really matter to you.”

Updated

Across the market towns of Britain the battle for the soul of the right is fierce

As the traders pack up under the striped awnings of the market stalls in the centre of Alford, east Lincolnshire, Matthew Warner is loading balls of wool from his family shop into the back of his car.

Warner, a father of two, is feeling a serious strain on the family finances from fuel prices and childcare, and his wife cannot work full-time hours as a nurse because of the costs. A longtime Tory voter, the 33-year-old is still undecided on who he will vote for on Thursday, but he says he is now attracted by Nigel Farage’s Reform party, who are making significant inroads in seats like this.

Alford is in the heart of one of the safest Tory constituencies, Louth and Horncastle, but the race is a near-perfect encapsulation of the battle for the soul of the Conservative party.

Its MP is Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, a key figure in the party’s moderate wing and a champion of Rishi Sunak. Her Reform opponent, Sean Matthews, is a retired police officer and was previously a local Tory branch chair who quit the party in protest over its removal of Liz Truss and installation of Sunak.

Like many voters in the market towns of this constituency, Warner says he believes it is time for a change after 14 years, having voted Tory at every election. “Nigel is standing out to us more than any other,” he said, though he is dismissive of all the other main parties. However, he says ultimately that he does not trust Reform – or any other party – to make a difference to the struggles of ordinary people.

Tuesday's best campaign photos

Boris, burgers and Basingstoke: here are the best pictures from T-2 days on the campaign trail:

Labour landslide may boost investment and confidence in UK, say City analysts

A landslide victory for Keir Starmer in the general election on Thursday could hand Britain a stability premium in global markets, boosting the pound, shares and investment in the UK at a time of mounting political turmoil elsewhere, City investors have said.

In sharp contrast with Conservative party warnings over the dangers of a large Labour majority, analysts in the City of London said the prospect of a resounding mandate for Starmer’s party could secure Britain’s “safe haven” status among investors in an increasingly volatile world.

After failing to close the gap in opinion polls during the election campaign, Rishi Sunak made a last-ditch warning that a Starmer “supermajority” would “bankrupt people in every generation”.

However, City analysts said a Labour landslide could pave the way for global investment in Britain after years of political and economic uncertainty since the 2016 Brexit referendum under the Tories, which had clouded the prospects for international investors.

Boris Johnson made his only appearance on the general election campaign on Tuesday night, less than 48 hours before voters head to the polls, and did not appear with or praise Rishi Sunak.

The former prime minister made a surprise appearance at a Tory rally in Chelsea, accusing Keir Starmer of trying to “usher in the most leftwing Labour government since the war” and claiming he would increase taxes and fail to stand up to Vladimir Putin.

Johnson thanked those at the National Army Museum for attending the late event, claiming that it was “way past Keir Starmer’s bedtime”. He thanked the prime minister for asking him to come, but that was the only mention of Sunak in his speech.

Boris Johnson does not appear with or praise Rishi Sunak as he returns to campaign trail

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the general election. With less than 48 hours to go until voting stations open, former PM Boris Johnson has made a surprise first appearance on the campaign. Johnson appeared on Tuesday night at a Tory rally in Chelsea and did not share a stage with or praise Rishi Sunak, the Guardian’s Aletha Adu reports.

Instead, he said Starmer would try to “usher in the most left-wing Labour government since the war”. Making a reference to “other parties” allegedly “full of Kremlin crawlers”, Johnson said: “Don’t let the Putinistas deliver the Corbynistas. Don’t let Putin’s pet parrots give this entire country psittacosis - which is a disease you get by the way from cosying up to pet parrots.”

With just over 24 hours to go now until voting opens, here is what is coming up today:

  • Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey is also campaigning in south-east England

  • Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is campaigning in Wales, Lanarkshire and Dudley.

  • Tory leader Rishi Sunak is campaigning in south-east England today.

  • Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is campaigning in Clacton.

  • SNP leader John Swinney is campaigning in Cumbernauld, Glasgow and Livingston.

  • Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie will join the candidate for Mid Dunbartonshire, Carolynn Scrimegour in Milngavie.

  • Scotland’s deputy first minister Kate Forbes is on the campaign trail with the SNP candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, Seamus Logan.

Updated

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