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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK car sales jumped 23.5% in November despite 2023 recession looming – as it happened

OPEC Recession Oil United Kingdom CBI United States Inflation Economy European Union
The forecourt of a Vauxhall car dealership in north London
The forecourt of a Vauxhall car dealership in north London Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

Time to wrap up, here’s today’s main stories:

Factory Orders across the US increased by 1% month-on-month in October, the Census Bureau reports.

That’s an acceleration on September’s 0.3% increase, suggesting demand held up pretty well.

US business activity contraction gains pace

The downturn at US companies has accelerated, with services firms reporting a sharper fall in new orders last month, due to weak demand from domestic and foreign clients.

The downturn in foreign client demand was the quickest in two-and-a half years, due to challenging economic conditions in key export markets. This fall in new business knocked service sector output in November, with firms also reporting a slowdown in rising costs.

That pushed the S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index down to 46.2 in November, from 47.8 in October, showing a sharper drop in activity.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says some companies were forced to cut prices to stimulate sales – which could help fix the US inflation squeeze:

“The survey data are providing a timely signal that the health of the US economy is deteriorating at a marked rate, with malaise spreading across the economy to encompass both manufacturing and services in November.

The survey data are broadly consistent with the US economy contracting in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of approximately 1%, with the decline gathering momentum as we head towards the end of the year.

There are some small pockets of resilience, notably in the tech and healthcare sectors, but other sectors are reporting falling output amid the rising cost of living, higher interest rates, weaker global demand and reduced confidence. Struggling most of all is the financial services sector, though consumer facing service providers are also seeing a steep fall in demand as households tighten their budgets.

A striking development is the extent to which companies are increasingly reporting a shift towards discounting in order to help stimulate sales, which augurs well for inflation to continue to retrench in the coming months, potentially quite significantly

Updated

Wall Street opens lower with Fed on investors' minds

The floor of the New York stock exchange.
The floor of the New York stock exchange. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Stocks have opened lower in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average shed 208 points, or 0.6%, to 34,221 points, with the broader S&P 500 index and the tech-focused Nasdaq both down 0.7%.

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, says investors are focused whether America’s central bank will slow its interest rate rises:

The key focus on investors minds is what kind of a message will the Fed deliver to the market at its highly anticipated rate decision next week.

The markets have concluded that the pace of tightening will slow down to 50 basis points. The Fed is then likely to continue hiking at a slower pace a few more times before pausing to give time for the higher rates to work their way through the economy to create a soft landing and in order to cool inflation.

Updated

Cold snap poses first test of Britain’s efforts to prevent winter power cuts

As the first big snowfall of winter threatens to drop this week, it’s not just the forecasters and road gritters who will be twitchy: Britain’s energy executives and policymakers are on tenterhooks, our energy correspondent Alex Lawson writes.

Many Britons who have held off putting on the heating, afraid of the bulging bills that could follow, may be forced to nudge the thermostat up, putting strain on the country’s power supplies. National Grid has warned that a confluence of scenarios including a cold snap and a cut off of Russian gas to Europe could lead to power cuts. Is this the first piece of that grim jigsaw?

An initial assessment appears far more positive than two months ago. European countries have filled their gas storage facilities more rapidly than expected, meaning UK competition for supplies has reduced.

In fact, Europe’s storage is so full, some tankers carrying liquified natural gas (LNG) have even been idling in European waters, waiting for prices to bounce back. Mother Nature has also played a part: the mild start to winter reduced demand with some bosses reporting consumption has fallen more than 10% on last year.

Here’s Alex’s full analysis:

Updated

Cryptocurrency operator Circle Internet Financial has abandoned plans to go public in a $9bn deal through a blank cheque company chaired by former Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond.

Circle has ended its $9 billion deal with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Concord Acquisition Corp, nearly ten months after an earlier agreement was amended.

Reuters has more details:

“We are disappointed the proposed transaction timed out, however, becoming a public company remains part of Circle’s core strategy to enhance trust and transparency, which has never been more important,” said Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Circle.

The company did not elaborate on its plans to go public. Circle is the principal operator of stablecoin USDC and reported a net income of $43 million and nearly $400 million in cash in the third quarter.

The FT says the move ““shows how successive crises have sent a chill through the crypto sector”.

Europe will fall into a recession this winter and growth will not return before spring, European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Monday.

Gentolini told reporters before a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels that:

“We will have a recession this winter.”

Deliveries of new UK vans fell by a fifth last month.

The UK’s new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market dropped by -22.2% in November, with 24,352 of vans sold during the month, according to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The SMMT says:

Declines were seen across most of the sector, with deliveries of vans weighing 2.0 tonnes or under recording the largest decline of the month at -70.9%, followed by those of mid-weight vehicles weighing up to 2.5 tonnes, which fell -63.5%.

Sales of battery-powered vans were up almost 15%, though, with 1,974 units registered last month –taking the total EV vans delivered in 2022 to 15,039.

The Chinese fashion retailer Shein has vowed to invest $15m (£12.2m) in improving standards at its supplier factories as it admitted working hours at two sites breached local regulations.

The online brand said an independent investigation, launched after allegations over labour abuse made in a recent UK documentary, had uncovered that employees at two of its Chinese sites were working hours that were longer than allowed.

It found staff at one of the factories were working up to 13-and-a-half-hour days with two to three days off a month, while those at the second site were working up to 12-and-a-half hours a day, with no fixed structure for days off.

Full story: UK new car sales rise as industry leaders say recovery ‘within grasp’

Sales of new cars in the UK have grown for the fourth month running, with purely electric vehicles accounting for a fifth of the total.

In the best November for the industry since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, almost 143,000 new vehicles were registered.

Sales for the month were 23.5% higher than last year, and although the overall annual figures to date remain marginally below 2021 levels, industry leaders said it showed “recovery was within their grasp”.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said manufacturers were still having to battle an erratic supply of components from around the world, particularly the lack of semiconductor chips, which control vehicles’ electronics.

Moldova’s central bank cut its main interest rate to 20% from 21.5% today, the bank’s governor said via Reuters.

Governor Octavian Armasu announced the rate change at a briefing, where he explained:

“The (National Bank of Moldova) creates more attractive conditions for providing credit to the real economy and population.”

BIS warns of financial risks from FX swap loans

Global financial markets could suffer a widespread and destabilising collapse following a trend for businesses to reject bank borrowing in favour of loans based on multi-billion dollar foreign exchange deals.

As much as $80n of global debt is hidden from regulators and $2.2tn could be at risk at any one time, “potentially undermining financial stability”, according to the Bank of International Settlements, the Geneva-based organisation that acts as an adviser to the world’s central bankers.

In its 2022 Triennial central bank survey, the BIS said trades worth $2.2tn represents about a third of the sums traded each day, and “a volume 30 times greater than daily global GDP and 14% higher than in early 2019,” highlighting the potential impact of panic selling.

The move to high-value loans based on the value of foreign exchange deals reveals how financial services firms have circumvented the spotlight from regulatory rules brought in since the 2008 financial crash.

To keep tabs on borrowing levels, banks were forced to introduce greater transparency in their reporting of loans and to keep higher levels of capital in reserve to protect against a negative shock.

The BIS said a foreign exchange deal between two parties will have a value that can be used as the basis for a loan. But if one of the parties gets into financial trouble, they could default on the loan, creating a cascading loss of confidence throughout the global financial system.

Claudio Borio, head of the BIS’s economic department, said:

“BIS analysis of the Triennial Survey continues to shed light on some corners of global financial markets that would otherwise go unnoticed.

“There is a staggering volume of off-balance sheet dollar debt that is partly hidden, and foreign-exchange risk settlement risk remains stubbornly high.”

Regulators have recently become worried that major financial markets are at risk of panic-induced collapse as the number of traders willing to buy assets declines when prices tumble.

Without willing buyers when prices begin to fall, markets become caught in a “death spiral”, forcing central banks to act as the buyer of last resort.

Central bankers fear that private financial markets have increasingly allowed risky trading to develop with an effective subsidy from taxpayers, who provide an unofficial financial backstop via government-supported central banks.

The move to use foreign exchange deals as the basis for loans creates a more complex financial system with a higher risk of loans agreements being broken and a freeze on new loans by market participants, the BIS said.

Authors Mathias Drehmann and Vladyslav Sushko, said results obtained from the triennial survey were worrying as they show an increasing amount of foreign exchange (FX) trading was hidden from view.

They said:

“FX trading continues to shift away from multilateral platforms, where price information is available to all participants, towards “less visible” venues.

Less visibility hinders policymakers from appropriately monitoring FX markets.”

The cost of a two-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen below 6% for the first time in almost nine weeks, as the UK’s home loans crunch eases off.

Bloomberg has the details:

The average two-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.99% Monday, according to Moneyfacts Group Plc. That’s the first time it has dropped below the threshold since Oct. 4 when key home loan rates were spiraling in the aftermath of then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

The average five-year fixed-rate deal also fell to 5.78%, after dropping below 6% almost a fortnight ago.

Thames Water profits near £400m despite summer of leaks

Workers from Thames Water delivering a temporary water supply from a tanker.
Workers from Thames Water delivering a temporary water supply from a tanker. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

Thames Water has posted an almost £400m profit for the past six months despite a jump in leaks amid hot summer weather.

The utilities giant said it showed “good progress” in its recent turnaround programme following a series of operational changes, PA Media report.

The firm revealed on Monday that pre-tax profits leapt to £398m for the six months to September 30, swinging from a pre-tax loss of £581m over the same period last year.

It said gains on financial instruments help to boost profitability, offsetting the impact of high inflation.

Thames Water said it witnessed an “exceptionally high level of operational incidents resulting from drought” over the period, after hot summer weather which resulted in hosepipe bans.

It revealed that it saw “deterioration” in water metrics, such as leakage and supply interruption, as a result of the drought conditions across parts of the UK.

Nevertheless, the company reported a 43% reduction in complaints and 29% fall in backlogs for the period.

The pound has risen to its highest in over three months, points out Reuters’ Andy Bruce:

Updated

The UK government is set to announce a package aimed at boosting growth in financial services and the City of London on Friday, Bloomberg reports, citing ‘people familiar with the plan’.

They say:

The Treasury is in the process of finalizing the package and has penciled in the end of the week for the announcement, pending sign-off from the Cabinet, one of the people said.

City minister Andrew Griffith had been expected to unveil the reforms, which the government will pitch as securing new opportunities from Brexit by sweeping away unnecessary regulations, before Christmas. Key to that has been a plan to replicate the “Big Bang”, the wave of deregulation in the City in 1986.

It’s unclear how radical any changes to the rules might be, or how much of a difference they will make to London’s competitiveness.

Russia has claimed that the G7 price cap on its oil will not affect its ability to sustain its invasion of Ukraine, but will destabilise global energy markets.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was preparing its response to Friday’s move by the G7 and allies, which was aimed at squeezing Moscow’s energy revenues and reducing its ability to wage war.

Peskov told reporters that:

“Russia and the Russian economy have the required capacity to fully meet the needs and requirements of the special military operation.

Peskov added that it was “obvious and indisputable that the adoption of these decisions is a step towards destabilising world energy markets”.

Sainsbury's pledges £50m more to price-cutting push

Supermarket chain Sainsbury’s is pledging another £50m of price cuts this winter to help customers with the cost of living crisis.

Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury’s says:

“We really understand that millions of households are having to make really tough decisions this Christmas and our job is to do everything we can to help with the rising costs of living.

We are accelerating our commitment to being the best value, investing a further £50 million in lowering prices and doing everything we can to fight inflation and help our customers enjoy celebrating this year.

We know everyone wants to enjoy a special Christmas meal together which is why we’re keeping inflation at bay and offering Christmas roast dinner for less than £4 per head - cheaper than it was last year.

Sainsbury’s had previously committed £500m on price cuts, as it faced rising pressure from discount rivals Aldi and Lidl, who have gained market share as customers have sought out cheaper food.

November’s PMI surveys suggest UK companies face a gloomy outlook at home and abroad, warns economic forecasters EY ITEM Club.

They say:

  1. November’s UK S&P Global/CIPS services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained unchanged at 48.8. Activity fell, with a third successive fall in new orders reflecting weak demand at home and abroad. It appears increasingly evident that the UK economy is in recession.

  2. The weakness in demand is increasingly affecting businesses’ pricing power, with output price inflation cooling despite stronger cost pressures. Overall, it would seem the survey is consistent with the EY ITEM Club prediction that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will shift down to a 50bps rate hike at its December meeting.

FTSE 100 higher despite recession worries

The London stock market has gained round this morning, despite the CBI’s warning that the UK faces recession and a lost decade unless the government comes up with a solid growth plan.

The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares is up 21 points at 7577, up 0.3%, approaching last week’s five-month highs. Mining companies are among the main risers, as the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions in some Chinese cities could spur demand for commodities.

The domestically-focused FTSE 250 index has gained 0.5%.

Garry White, chief investment commentator at wealth manager Charles Stanley, predicts we could see a Santa rally in the next couple of weeks, if America’s central bank slows the pace of its interest rate increases this month.

“The global economy faces a difficult 2023, but markets are still likely to rally towards the end of this year. The US has clearly passed its peak of inflation, with price rises expected to moderate worldwide during 2023. This will allow central banks to be more measured in its assessment of economic and it should be able to pause their interest-rate increases early next year, although some increases are still likely.

Indeed, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) at its December meeting, compared with the 75bp that has been seen following the previous four meetings.

“This means the Santa rally has great potential to take off after its decision is revealed on 14 December, a move that should reassure markets. The US electorate has effectively turned Joe Biden into a lame-duck president after the Republican Party took back control of the House of Representatives at the mid-term elections. This means that it will be difficult for the Government to provide any relief in the world’s largest economy – with markets preferring times when politicians have difficulty implementing new policy.”

Updated

PwC 'to close offices at Christmas to save energy'

One of the UK’s largest accountancy firms will close most of its offices over Christmas and New Year for the first time to save on energy bills.

The BBC reports that PwC, which employs about 24,000 people, will shut its main London office from 23 December to 3 January, as well as some smaller sites.

PwC chairman Kevin Ellis said having all offices open over the festive period “doesn’t make sense at a time of energy scarcity”.

PwC has 19 offices across the UK.

Most staff will be taking annual leave over Christmas, but the Covid pandemic has meant that working remotely from home is now common practice.

Mr Ellis said that staff wanted the company to “do our bit to reduce energy consumption”.

“Office life is hugely important to our culture and business,” he said. “But having all our offices open over the holiday period doesn’t make sense at a time of energy scarcity.”

Retail sales across the eurozone fell by more than expected in October, as consumer demand weakened.

Retail sales across the single currency bloc fell by 1.8% month-on-month, and were 2.7% lowe than a year ago.

The largest monthly falls were recorded in Austria (-4.6%), Croatia (-4.0%) and Belgium (-3.3%).

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall of 1.7% on the month and 2.6% on the year.

Sales of non-food products fell by 2.1% month-on-month, as households cut back, while food, drinks and tobacco sales were down 1.5% compared with September.

UK service sector stuck in downturn as recession approaches

Activity at UK service sector companies continue to contract last month, as the economy fell into a likely recession.

The latest survey of purchasing managers at services firms found that activity fell again in November. Levels of incoming new work continued to fall amid ongoing economic uncertainty, as cost of living challenges hit discretionary spending.

This left the S&P Global / CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index at 48.8 in November, matching October’s reading – a level that shows the sector contracted.

The services PMI found:

  • Fastest fall in new business volumes since January 2021

  • Discretionary spending hit by cost of living crisis

  • Higher pay ensures that cost inflation remains elevated

Last week, the UK manufacturing PMI came in at 46.5 (below the 50-point mark that shows stagnation).

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says November’s PMI surveys suggest “a growing recession risk for the UK”.

A change of government and its new economic policies may have helped arrested some of the financial market volatility after September’s ‘mini-budget’ but the economic picture remains stubbornly unchanged. The overall rate of economic contraction has held steady compared to October, indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 0.4%.

As such, this is the toughest spell the UK economy has faced since the global financial crisis excluding only the height of the pandemic.

Inflows of new work fell at an increased rate, indicating slumping demand for goods and services, which forced companies to pare back their hiring, resulting in only very modest employment growth, Williamson explains, adding:

Although business confidence in the outlook has lifted from October’s recent low, largely reflecting signs of improved political stability at home, an overall gloomy mood prevails to restrain business optimism at one of the lowest levels seen over the past decade. Clearly, risks to the near-term outlook remain tilted to the downside.

While an easing of price pressures brought some tentative goods news to suggest inflation has peaked, rates of increase remain historically elevated both in terms of firms’ costs and their selling prices to hint at worryingly sticky price pressures.”

Updated

James Fairclough, CEO at AA Cars points out that car sales are still down so far this year compared with 2021:

“Four straight months of rising new vehicle registrations would be an achievement at any time, but with Britain sliding into recession it feels all the more impressive.

“After a painfully slow start to the year - when the sector was hamstrung by supply shortages - sales are ending the year strongly, with drivers’ surging demand for Electric Vehicles leading the way. Pure EVs now account for well over one in four new cars sold in the UK.

“But the progress is all relative. Total sales so far this year are still 3.4% down on the Covid-impacted numbers recorded at this point in 2021, and well adrift from their pre-pandemic levels.

“The supply of new vehicles is finally improving, with the SMMT recently confirming that UK car manufacturing output jumped by 7.4% in October. But questions still remain about the durability of customer demand.

Updated

UK car registrations jump 23.5%

Britain’s new car market grew for fourth month running in November, with registrations of new vehicles rising by almost a quarter.

Registrations jumped by 23.5% in November year-on-year to 142,889 units, trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reports.

It’s the highest November sales total since 2019, as manufacturers continued to churn out vehicles despite “erratic” supplies of global components.

Plug-in electric vehicles made up more than one in four (27.7%) new registrations, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) taking their largest monthly share of the new car market in 2022.

Sales of petrol-fuelled cars were up 15% year-on-year, while diesel fell over 5%.

UK car sales to November 2022

The SMMT is urging the government to do more to deliver a charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, says:

Recovery for Britain’s new car market is back within our grasp, energised by electrified vehicles and the sector’s resilience in the face of supply and economic challenges.

As the sector looks to ensure that growth is sustainable for the long term, urgent measures are required – not least a fair approach to driving EV adoption that recognises these vehicles remain more expensive, and measures to compel investment in a charging network that is built ahead of need. By doing so we can encourage consumer appetite across the country and accelerate the UK’s journey to net zero.

Eurozone 'sliding into recession' after private sector output falls again

Economic output across the eurozone has contracted for the fifth month running, according to the latest survey of purchasing managers at European companies.

The decline at eurozone’s services companies accelerated last month, warns data provider S&P Global.

It foud that demand for eurozone goods and services fell last month, with job creation the weakest in almost two years.

It’s eurozone Services Business Activity Index fell to 48.5, a 21-month low, down from October’s 48.6 (any reading below 50 shows a contraction).

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence says the data suggests the eurozone is falling into recession.

“A fifth consecutive monthly falling output signalled by the PMI adds to the likelihood that the eurozone is sliding into recession. However, at present the downturn remains only modest, with an easing in the overall rate of contraction in November means so far the region looks set to see GDP contract by a mere 0.2%.

Manufacturers are seeing some benefits of improved supply chains and the service sector, while still in decline amid the cost-of-living squeeze, has so far not suffered to the degree that many were expecting.

With the surveys also bringing signs of inflation having peaked, the headwind on demand from rising prices should also start to ease in coming months, barring severe weather over the winter, hinting that any recession may be both brief and relatively mild. That said, energy prices could spike higher amid adverse weather in the coming months, which would not only hit spending power but could threaten production capacity at energy-intensive industries, under which scenario the risks to economic growth would shift clearly to the downside.”

Russia’s rouble has weakened to a seven-week low against the dollar as the price cap on Russian oil comes into force today.

The rouble dropped to almost 62.5 against the US dollar, the lowest exchange rate since 14 October, and also dipped againt the euro and the yuan.

The price cap of $60 per barrel could eat into Russia’s foreign currency export revenues.

RBC Capital Markets point out that Moscow has said it won’t supply countries who back the cap:

Leading Russian energy officials, including Deputy PM Novak on Sunday, continue to maintain that they will withhold supply from any customer that participates in the cap plan.

Biden administration officials dismiss such threats as bluster, though to date, the Kremlin has made good on many of its disruptive threats; for example, cutting off gas importers that refused to pay in RUB

BCS World of Investments say:

“Today, the EU ban on Russian oil and the price ceiling kick in, though there is still no clarity how this is enforced.”

The rouble tumbled after the Ukraine invasion, hitting 120 to the dollar, but then recovered as Moscow introduced capital controls in March to support the currency.

The rouble-dollar exchange rate
The rouble-dollar exchange rate Photograph: Refinitiv

The cost of the items that make up a traditional Christmas dinner has risen three times faster than wages this year, according to research from the Trades Union Congress (TUC).

Shares in Vodafone have jumped almost 2% in early trading, following news that CEO Nick Read is leaving.

Marc Kimsey, equity trader at stockbrokers Frederick & Oliver, comments:

With shares trading at a 20-year low, news of Nick Read’s impending departure is the buying signal investors have been waiting for.

Many pubs and breweries will close without more energy help

Many pubs and breweries across the UK will be forced to shut their doors for good as they face rocketing losses without further energy support, industry bosses have warned.

Calculations in a report by the consultancy Frontier Economics, produced for the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), showed that energy bills returning to their regular rate from April would put pubs and brewers at a loss of 20% on average.

Businesses have benefited from the energy bill relief scheme but face uncertainty when the scheme finishes at the end of March. The report showed that energy costs were the biggest threat to their viability and “would be even more lethal” when the relief scheme ends.

More than 600 workers at the housing and homelessness charity Shelter are beginning an “unprecedented” fortnight of strike action today in a dispute over pay – coinciding with one of its busiest times of the year.

The Unite union said a 3% pay increase this year had left some of Shelter’s staff unable to pay their rent and very worried about the possibility of becoming homeless themselves.

Shelter said some of its services would be “temporarily impacted” during the strike, but added: “We are making every effort to continue to serve those in need of our help.”

The two weeks of strike action will see its staff join postal and rail employees and workers across a number of other sectors who are taking part in industrial action over pay in what has been called “the December of discontent”.

Updated

The CBI are also forecasting a year-long fall in consumer spending, as UK household incomes are squeezed through 2023 by the inflation shock and the recession.

Here are their latest forecasts:

  • The CBI expect UK GDP growth of 4.5% this year, -0.4% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. Their expectation for growth over 2023 marks a significant downgrade from the last forecast in June (of +1.0%)

  • Their forecast suggests that the economy has effectively entered a recession, which will last until Q4 2023. But they expect this recession to be a relatively mild one, with a peak-to-trough fall in output of 0.7%

  • GDP is expected to return to its pre-COVID level (i.e., in Q4 2019) only in Q2 2024

  • However, both household spending and business investment do not recover this shortfall – remaining below their pre-COVID level at the end of the forecast (by 2% and 9% respectively)

Copper hits three-week high as Chinese cities relax Covid curbs

The copper price has touched a three-week high this morning, after some Chinese cities relaxed their tough Covid-19 restrictions.

The three-month London copper price gained 0.6% to $8,504 per tonne, the highest since mid-November.

Other industrial metals prices also rose, after several cities including the financial hub of Shanghai relaxed some of their pandemic restrictions.

An expert on China’s state media has claimed that coronavirus is weakening and management protocols could be downgraded, days after mass protests broke out in several cities against the zero-Covid policies.

The CBI’s economic forecasts for the UK are ‘bleak reading’, says Bill Blain, strategist at Shard Capital.

Blain explains:

The CBI think the next decade could be lost as the UK is swamped by stagflation, zero growth and disinvestment, and wonder what the government’s plan is?

There isn’t one except to ignore the brutal truth of acknowledging the greatest mistake the UK ever made.

He points out that the CBI expect business investment will be down 9% from 2019 pre-Covid levels, as businesses are reluctant to invest in the UK.

Vodafone CEO stepping down

Telecommunications company Vodafone has announced the departure of its CEO, Nick Read.

Read has “agreed with the Board” that he will step down as CEO on 31st December, with CFO Margherita Della Valle stepping up to become interim CEO on top of her current job.

Vodafone told shareholders:

She will accelerate the execution of the Company’s strategy to improve operational performance and deliver shareholder value.

Read’s departure comes three weeks after Vodafone cut its earnings guidance and announced a €1bn-plus (£879m) cost-cutting plan to cope with soaring energy bills and inflation.

The company’s share price has languished on Read’s watch. It was around 150p when he was appointed CEO on 1 October 2018, but ended last week around 91p.

Vodafone’s share price over the last 20 years
Vodafone’s share price over the last 20 years Photograph: Refinitiv

Our financial editor Nils Pratley wrote about Vodafone’s failure to rescue its share price last month, here’s a flavour:

The company seems perpetually to fail to meet its potential, while simultaneously claiming a breakthrough lies just around the next corner. Read’s contribution to the overpromising agenda was a bullish presentation a year ago that declared that Vodafone was “structured for value creation” and that “portfolio actions” – dealmaking, in other words – would “improve returns at pace”.

One can’t quite say nothing has happened since then. The Hungarian operation has been sold, a bolt-on acquisition has been made in Portugal and last week Vodafone unveiled a sell-down of its majority stake in Vantage Towers, its German-listed mast business, that may yield the thick end of €6bn. It’s just that none of those actions has been enough to shift the dial at a group carrying net debt of a remarkable €45bn.

The Vantage transaction, which will create a joint venture with private equity, is immensely complicated and the glaring omissions from the deal-doing have been transactions in Spain and Italy, seen as the priorities given their sub-par competitive positions. In Spain, Vodafone was outflanked in the last round of market consolidation; in Italy, it looked at a deal and rejected it. Hopes are now pinned on the UK, where combination talks are happening with Three; UK competition regulators, though, represent a hard-to-read obstacle.

Meanwhile, the one thing investors thought they knew about Vodafone was that its German operation, 30% of the group’s revenues and home of an €18bn cable acquisition in 2018, could be relied upon in all weathers. The company, after all, enjoys the biggest market share in Europe’s biggest telecoms market.

The half-year numbers, though, showed German profits down 7% with “operational challenges” taking the blame….

Oil prices are trading higher after OPEC+ agreed to stick to its current output targets as the cartel waits to make a judgement on the strength of Chinese oil demand before making any changes to its production strategy, says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor:

Meanwhile the G7 $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil came into effect today as the West tries to limit Russia’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine. However Ukrainian president Zelenskyy condemned the price cap as a weak half-measure that isn’t low enough.

There are a lot of moving parts in the oil market at the moment with uncertainty around the outlook for Chinese demand as well as global demand as the extent of the economic slowdown is yet to be seen. Meanwhile the cartel is waiting to see whether the new Russian cap goes anyway to impacting market prices.

As a result, OPEC+ has made the call to hold steady for now, despite the recent downtrend. Over the last six-months brent crude has shed nearly 25%. However, given the spike in the first quarter following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is still up by nearly 14% so far this year.”

Updated

The upcoming recession will probably be shallow, but will still be tough for households and businesses, predicts Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist:

“Another recession in the space of two years is tough going. A second year of high – albeit falling – inflation will hit households hard, especially those lower down the income distribution. With cost pressures remaining high, many businesses will also be operating in a tough trading environment.”

“While it’s some consolation that the upcoming recession will be shallow, it’s concerning that longer-term weakness in productivity and business investment appears to be bedding in. It does not bode well for living standards and the economy’s capacity to grow over the longer-term.”

“The time for action is now. The Government should leverage more business investment to drive growth. Our analysis shows a permanent full allowances regime would unlock an extra £50bn in capital investment per year by the end of the decade”

Updated

CBI: UK in stagflation as 2023 recession looms

Britain’s economy has fallen into a recession that will last until the end of next year, the CBI business group fears.

In its latest economic forecast, the CBI warns that the Prime Minister and Chancellor must do more to boost long-term growth, having stabilized financial markets by ripping up their predecessors’ mini-budget.

With inflation mounting, the CBI has slashed its forecast for growth in 2023, and predicts that UK GDP will shrink by 0.4% next year, down from 1% growth expected before.

The economy is likely to have fallen into a recession in Q3 2022, when GDP shrank by 0.2%, the CBI points out. They expect the recession to last until the end of 2023.

High inflation is at the heart of weaker economic activity – the CBI expect CPI inflation to have peaked in October (when it reached at a 40-year high of 11.1%), and to fall gradually over the coming year.

But they warn that inflation will “remain significantly” above the Bank of England’s 2% target next year, likely to end 2023 at 3.9%.

Tony Danker, CBI director-general, warns that the UK is suffering ‘stagflation’”:

“Britain is in stagflation – with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment. Firms see potential growth opportunities but a lack of “reasons to believe” in the face of headwinds are causing them to pause investing in 2023. Government can change this. Their action or inaction to support growth and investment will be a key determinant of whether recession is shallow or deep.”

“We will see a lost decade of growth if action isn’t taken. GDP is a simple multiplier of two factors: people and their productivity. But we don’t have people we need, nor the productivity”

“There is no time to waste. The Prime Minister and Chancellor must use levers of growth to ensure this downturn is as short and shallow as possible, but also to address the persistent weakness in investment and productivity. We cannot afford to have another decade where both are stagnant”

Updated

Introduction: Oil higher after Opec+ sticks with output cuts

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Oil is a big story today, as the EU sanctions on importing Russian crude come into effect hours after the Opec cartel resisted pressure to boost crude output.

Opec and its allies agreed on Sunday to stick to their plan to cut output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November through 2023. They also pledged to take “immediate” action to stabilise global oil markets if needed.

Brent crude has pushed higher this morning, up 2% at one point to $87.60 per barrel.

Srijan Katyal, Global Head of Strategy & Trading Services at brokerage ADSS, says Opec+ took a “measured approach”, with fears of a global recession (which would hit energy demand) rising:

“By keeping production flat, OPEC+ have signalled a measured approach, not guided by speculation related to a demand slump in China, a weakened dollar, or even the relatively low prices for oil seen in recent weeks.”

“Prices will likely remain fairly stable, though with fears of a global recession looming, and inflation rates continuing to increase, any long-term upside will be muted. A short-term dip to the lower $60’s is also possible.”

The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne oil came into force on Monday as the West tries to restrict Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. The new $60 per barrel price cap will apply to Russian seaborne crude oil, and was agreed after Poland dropped its opposition to the deal.

The price cap also aims to avert a surge in global oil prices as the EU’s embargo on Russian crude begins today.

Also coming up

We find out how UK, eurozone and US service sector companies fared last month, and how many new cars were sold in the UK during November.

European stock markets are set for a flat start:

The agenda

  • 9am GMT: Eurozone service sector PMIs for November

  • 9am GMT: UK new car registrations for November

  • 9.30am GMT: UK service sector PMIs for November

  • 10am GMT: Eurozone retail sales for November

  • 3pm GMT: US service sector PMIs for November

  • 3pm GMT: US factory orders for October

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