Closing post
Time for a recap:
Worries about this month’s budget, and the Middle East crisis, have hit confidence across UK manufacturing last month.
The oil price has jumped following a warning from a US official that Iran is “preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel”.
Inflation across the eurozone has fallen below the official 2% target for the first time in three years, sparking speculation that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again this month.
Some of the busiest ports in the US were braced for crippling disruption after about 45,000 port workers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) began walking off the job after their contracts expired at midnight.
The Horizon IT scandal inquiry has heard that there could be a repeat unless the so-called “untouchable” investigators and executives involved in the prosecution of subpostmasters not fired before the organisation rolls out its new IT system.
UK domestic energy costs have jumped 10% as the new price cap kicks in.
Prices in UK shops are falling at the fastest rate since 2021 despite an increase in fresh food inflation as wet weather hit UK production while the cost of olive oil and sugary snacks continues to be affected by the climate crisis.
Updated
If it goes ahead, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel could be as big or potentially bigger than the one in April, a US official has told Reuters.
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters earlier on Tuesday that Iran appeared to be preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel.
In April, Iran launched hundreds of drones as well as cruise missiles towards Israel, in the Islamic Republic’s first ever direct attack on the Jewish state. But the attack, mostly launched from inside Iran, caused only modest damage in Israel as most were shot down with the help of the US, Britain and Jordan.
European oil and gas stocks have jumped by more than 1%, following the warning that Iran is preparing to launch an “imminent” ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Financial shares are weaker, though, with the European bank stocks index down 2% and on track for its biggest daily drop in eight weeks.
Oil price jumps 3% after claim that "Iran preparing imminent missile attack on Israel"
The oil price has now firmly shaken off its earlier losses, and pushed higher, following reports that the US believes that Iran is “preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel”.
Associated Press has reported that a senior U.S. administration official has said Iran is preparing to “imminently” launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel, and warned Tuesday of “severe consequences” should it take place.
AP reports:
The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence, said the U.S. is actively supporting Israeli defensive preparations. This comes after the Israeli military on Tuesday warned people to evacuate nearly two dozen Lebanese border communities hours after announcing what it said were limited ground operations against Hezbollah.
White House officials did not immediately offer any evidence backing its intelligence finding. The official added that the administration was confident in the determination.
Iran’s state media has not suggested any attack is imminent. Iranian officials could not be immediately reached for comment.Iran already launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel in April, but few of the Iranian projectiles reached their targets. Many were shot down by a U.S.-led coalition, while others apparently failed at launch or crashed while in flight. Even those that reached Israel appeared to miss their marks, experts and an AP analysis in September showed.
Our liveblog has full coverage of the crisis:
Brent crude, which had been down over 1% earlier, briefly below $70/barrel, is now up over 2.6% at $73.61 per barrel.
The US dollar, a classic safe-haven asset, is also rallying, as are government bonds.
Airline shares are now falling, while shares in weapons maker BAE Systems are up 2.5%.
Updated
"Reeves to China"
Sky News are reporting that Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is drawing up plans for a visit to China early next year.
They say the trip would include resuming a key financial services trade summit for the first time since 2019.
As Sky point out, it would be Reeves’ first trip to China since Labour’s general election victory, at a time when Britain is weighing up whether it should follow the EU and US by also imposing tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China.
A government spokesperson said:
“Last week, the chancellor spoke with vice premier He Lifeng to discuss enhancing economic and financial cooperation and communication.
“They agreed to take forward discussions on timings and areas that could be covered in future engagement.”
Exclusive: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is lining up a visit to Beijing as early as January 2025 to spearhead the resumption of the Economic and Financial Dialogue between the British and Chinese governments after a hiatus lasting nearly six years. https://t.co/FbJDcjV6SL
— Mark Kleinman (@MarkKleinmanSky) October 1, 2024
UK-China relations have deteriorated in recent years, following Beijing’s crackdown on democratic freedoms in Hong Kong, concerns about human rights abuses against the Uyghur community in Xinjiang and national security worries about Chinese involvement in UK critical infrastructure.
Gunvor chair says MidEast conflict won't hit oil supply
The Middle East conflict won’t hit global oil market, one of the world’s biggest oil traders has claimed.
Torbjörn Törnqvist, the CEO of Gunvor Group, has said he was “very confident” that the escalating conflict would not have “any impact at all on oil supply”.
Törnqvist told the Gulf Intelligence Energy:
“I’m very confident that this will not have any impact at all on oil supply.
“We have a situation around the Red Sea, Yemen, but by and large it’s more like a nuisance, but not really disruptive in any way.
Törnqvist also flagged that the market was more worried about weak demand.
Back in the markets, the oil price has now recovered from its earlier losses, with Brent crude now flat at $72.31 per barrel.
Columbia Threadneedle: Pound could hit $1.50 next year
Despite recent falls in UK business confidence, City firm Columbia Threadneedle has predicted the pound will recover to its highest level since the 2016 Brexit vote.
Bloomberg reports that Steven Bell, Columbia Threadneedle’s chief EMEA economist, has predicted that sterling will move toward $1.50 next year.
The forecast is based on the prospect that the UK will have comparatively high interest rates, as the Bank of England is more cautious about cutting borrowing costs due to inflation fears.
Bloomberg explain:
Bell’s prediction implies the pound stands to strengthen almost 13% from its current level around $1.33, already near the highest in two and a half years. The UK currency is the best-performer in the G-10 this year, advancing nearly 5% versus the greenback.
Bell shrugged off concerns that the tax hikes and austerity measures expected in the UK budget at the end of the month will derail the pound’s gains. With higher taxes likely centered around capital gains, their impact on demand will be limited and are unlikely to shake consumer confidence, he said.
On the night of the EU referendum eight years ago, the pond briefly touched $1.50, before plunging to $1.32, and then to $1.20 by January 2017.
After the mini-budget two years ago, it briefly hit an alltime low of $1.038.
Dangers of another IT scandal unless Post Office 'untouchables' rooted out, inquiry hears
The former chair of the Post Office has warned of another Horizon-style scandal if the s0-called “untouchable” investigators and executives involved in the prosecution of subpostmasters are not fired before the organisation rolls out its new IT system.
Henry Staunton, who was sacked by the former business secretary Kemi Badenoch in January, told the inquiry into the scandal on Tuesday that there remains millions of pounds still in dispute between what subpostmasters have recorded and what the Post Office has in their records.
Staunton said that before the replacement for the Horizon system is implemented in the future, which itself is full of bugs and has seen projected costs double to more than £800m, the Post Office must deal with staff involved in wrongful prosecution of more than 700 subpostmasters.
“This is not something that relates to the past, it is something that relates to the future,” he said:
“Before we implement [the new] Horizon we will be doing a path-clearing exercise. There are millions of pounds in dispute between postmasters and what is on their records and what is in the Post Office account.”
The inquiry has previously heard about the so-called “untouchables” within the organisation, a phrase attributed to outgoing chief executive Nick Read, referring to a group of Post Office investigators who would never face disciplinary action relating to the Horizon IT scandal.
Saf Ismail, one of two subpostmasters who sit on the current board of the Post Office, has also referred to a “red” list of 23 other employees deemed high-risk given their involvement in the scandal in one way or other, none of whom who have even been suspended.
“There are these people called the ‘Untouchables’ in the investigations team, or ‘reds’ or whatever,” said Staunton.
He explained:
“[They were] Involved with all the issues in the past of finding postmasters guilty. I am very afraid if [subpostmasters] are investigated [after the new IT system is implemented] by the so-called untouchables we could have another debacle - not to the same extent - but we could have hundreds of subpostmasters having to pay out monies. This is a big issue going forward, the involvement of the untouchables.”
Staunton said that Read, who is due to appear at the inquiry for three days next week, had used the phrase “Untouchables” to him in a private conversation.
He added that Read also used the phrase in a meeting with all of the Post Office’s non-executive directors.
Asked by counsel for the inquiry what exactly he understood an “Untouchable” employee was, Staunton said:
“They are people that were involved in prosecuting postmasters previously and are still in their roles,” he said.
“And therefore would be involved in any future investigations. [They were] classified under various colours, the same as so-called reds, and would be involved in future investigations. And that seems utterly wrong.”
There are 48 people employed in the investigations team, the inquiry heard, although how many of them are considered “Untouchables” is unknown.
Updated
Here’s a list of the 17 Dobbies garden centres that are to close (see earlier post):
Larger stores
Altrincham, Greater Manchester
Antrim, Northern Ireland
Gloucester, Gloucestershire
Gosforth, Newcastle-upon-Tyne
Harlestone Heath, Northamptonshire
Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire
Inverness, Scotland
King’s Lynn, Norfolk
Pennine, Huddersfield, West Yorkshire
Reading, Berkshire
Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire
Little Dobbies
Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
Chiswick, Greater London
Clifton , Bristol
Richmond, Greater London
Stockbridge, Edinburgh, Scotland
Westbourne Grove, Greater London
Dawn has broken at ports on the East Coast of the US, where around 45,000 workers began a strike at midnight last night.
Dockworkers at 36 ports from Maine to Texas hit picket lines early this morning, in a dispute over wages and automation.
Here’s the scene:
The pre-market drop in Boeing’s shares today also follows news that more than 40 foreign operators of 737 airplanes may be using planes with rudder components that may pose safety risks.
The warning came from the US National Transportation Safety Board, which last week issued urgent safety recommendations about the potential for a jammed rudder control system on some Boeing 737 airplanes after a February incident involving a United flight.
The NTSB also disclosed on Monday that it had learned that two foreign operators suffered similar incidents in 2019 involving rollout guidance actuators.
“We are concerned of the possibility that other airlines are unaware of the presence of these actuators on their 737 airplanes,” NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy said Monday in a letter to Federal Aviation Administration chief Mike Whitaker.
Investment bank Peel Hunt has said finance deals activity has slowed in recent weeks, amid uncertainty around the upcoming autumn Budget and the US election.
In a trading statement this morning, Peel Hunt said:
Market activity has slowed again in recent weeks ahead of the upcoming Budget and US election.
Consequently, despite better first half revenues, we expect full year performance to be in line with market expectations and we remain well positioned across all parts of our business to take advantage of increased activity when market confidence returns.
Inflation is no longer of concern in the euro area.
So declares analysts at Nomura this morning, after consumer price inflation fell below the ECB’s 2% target.
They predict that euro area disinflation will continue in earnest during this and next year.
Nomura told clients:
Part of the rationale for expecting underlying momentum in inflationary pressures to continue abating is based on our expectation of weak domestic demand.
We believe the consumer-led recovery that many forecasters expect is increasingly unlikely to happen (the Bloomberg consensus expects consumer spending growth of 1.4% y-o-y by the end of 2025, we expect half that).
Consumers have less available cash than prior to the pandemic, real wage growth is slowing more sharply than expected, and consumption confidence remains notably weak.
Garden centre group Dobbies to shut 17 stores
Garden centre group Dobbies is to shut 17 stores, in a move which will hit 465 jobs, PA Media reports.
Dobbies Garden Centres said the proposed closures are part of a restructuring plan to help return the business to profit and reduce its rent bill.
The plan, which will need approval by creditors, will see the firm shut 11 larger Dobbies sites and six little Dobbies by the end of the year.
Sites will continue to operate as normal until the restructuring process is given the green light.
Mothercare has suspended trading in its shares as the maternity and babywear brand has been forced to delay publication of its annual accounts while it attempts to finalise a refinancing package.
The group, which no longer has its own stores in the UK – only outlets in Boots stores – but trades from more than 500 stores and 50 websites run by franchise partners across 32 countries, said it was unable to publish its annual results by a deadline of 30 September but expected to do so “in the next few weeks”.
The company said it was looking to raise funds from the sale of “certain IP assets”, likely to include some brand names, as well as talking to its lender.
Mothercare, which is listed on London’s Aim junior stock market, has been attempting to renegotiate the terms of a lending facility to reduce costs for at least a year. The group, which was once a stalwart of UK high streets before it shut all stores in the country in 2019, has seen its share price has slump more than 50% in the past year to just 3.4p, valuing it at just £20m.
In a previous statement issued in May, the company said the loan had reached £19.7m, up from £19.5m last September, on which it was paying 19.2% interest and which would require waivers on lending terms given poor sales in its key middle east market which now accounts for nearly half the group’s sales.
The company said in May it was also looking at financing alternatives to including offering lenders a stake in the business.
On Tuesday it added: “the challenges facing our Middle Eastern operations” remained “broadly unchanged”.
Horizon IT inquiry hears government “dragged their feet” over compensation
Over at the Horizon IT Inquiry, the former chair of the Post Office has said that there was no interest at all in the exoneration of postmasters, and that the organisation and the government “dragged their feet” making compensation payments.
Henry Staunton, who was sacked by the former business secretary Kemi Badenoch in January, said that his first impression upon taking up the role in late 2022 was that there wasn’t an acceptance among management of the conclusions of damning High Court judgements that the Post Office had been wrong to pursue prosecutions.
“They didn’t fully accept it, that was my impression, that somehow the case hadn’t been put well or whatever,” said Staunton, giving testimony at the public inquiry into the Horizon IT scandal on Tuesday.
“There wasn’t a feeling that this was absolutely wrong, [what] had happened. It was a feeling across the piece with the team.”
He also said that from his first meeting it was obvious that the Horizon IT system was “completely and utterly unreliable”.
Staunton, who has accused the last government of wanting to delay payments to postmasters until after the general election, said that his second takeaway when he started was that there was “No appetite at all for exoneration.Those were the two things that came through strongly to me”.
He described the Post Office’s investigations department as “powerful” and “quite brutal” in the way they dealt with subpostmasters.
Staunton said that he was shocked at the attitude of the remediation process designed to evaluate and compensate postmasters.
He cited examples including a reluctance to “pause” subpostmasters having to repay money while they were being evaluated in the scheme as that might result in more subpostmasters coming forward to join the scheme.
“What surprised me was we shouldn’t not be doing something because it would generate claims,” he said. “That is not the basis the remediation committee should be working. I formed a view over a period of months regarding bureaucracy and an unsympathetic and adversarial approach.”
This same attitude was taken when a discussion about expanding the scheme relating to a death in the family of a postmaster.
He said:
“The view was if we widened the principles we open ourselves up to more claims.
That seemed pretty unsympathetic to me.
With respect to remediation the government and Post Office were dragging their heels.”
Staunton added that one Post Office executive said that the organisation did not owe the same duty of care to subpostmasters as it did to the organisation’s own employees.
After all they have been through “we owed them a greater duty of care compared to our own employees,” Staunton said.
Shares in aerospace manufacturer Boeing are down around 0.7% in pre-market trading, following a report that it plans to issue new stock.
Bloomberg is reporting that Boeing is considering raising at least $10bn by selling new stock, as the planemaker seeks to replenish cash reserves depleted further by the ongoing strike which began last month.
They add:
The company is working with advisers to explore its options, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing confidential matters. Raising equity isn’t likely to happen for at least a month, assuming the planemaker can resolve the strike, because Boeing wants a firm grasp of the financial toll from the walkout by 33,000 workers, the people said.
Boeing is considering raising at least $10 billion by selling new stock, seeking to replenish cash reserves, sources say https://t.co/GtTpOscaMi
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) October 1, 2024
Late last week the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) said its pay deal talks with Boeing had broken off and that there were no further dates scheduled for negotiations at this time.
Over in the US, the White House has said consumers will only feel a limited impact from the port strikes which began at midnight on the East Coast.
In a statement, they say:
“The President has directed his team to convey his message directly to both sides that they need to be at the table and negotiating in good faith - fairly and quickly.”
⚠️ WHITE HOUSE - PRESIDENT BIDEN AND VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS ARE CLOSELY MONITORING STRIKE AT EAST COAST AND GULF COAST PORTS
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) October 1, 2024
The president has also directed his Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force to meet every day and prepare to address potential disruptions, the statement added.
Updated
Recent falls in energy prices could keep eurozone inflation lower than the European Central Bank has forecast, suggests GianLuigi Mandruzzato, senior economist at EFG Asset Management.
Following this morning’s drop in eurozone inflation to 1.8%, Mandruzzato says:
The fall of inflation below 2% year on year (yoy) for the first time in more than three years opens room for the ECB to cut rates again on October 17.
The September flash estimates of 1.8% yoy for the headline and 2.7% yoy for core inflation mean that both of them were lower for the quarter than the ECB projected three weeks ago.
Furthermore, the lower starting point for the fourth quarter and developments in energy prices point to a much lower inflation in the next few months than the ECB expected, further supporting the case for cutting rates sooner rather than later.
Yet, services inflation at 4% yoy remains too high for comfort and warrants a gradual recalibration of monetary policy in the euro area.
Updated
The drop in inflation last month could help to shift the European Central Bank’s focus onto the lacklustre growth environment in the eurozone, rather than price pressures.
ING economist Bert Colijn says:
The ECB knew that this inflation print would come in weak as President Christine Lagarde mentioned at the September press conference but it still came in a tad weaker than most analysts had expected. While a bounce back in the fourth quarter has been expected, the question is to what extent this can materialise as petrol prices have been dropping quickly on the back of falling oil prices.
With core inflation slowly dropping at this point, it looks like the 2% target in the medium term is achievable. Recent survey data has confirmed slowing selling price expectations from businesses. This is mainly because of weak demand as the same surveys indicate that growth is slowing from an already modest pace in the second quarter. Since the summer, concerns about inflation have made way for concerns about economic growth.
As the ECB seems quite convinced that inflation is on track towards 2%, the question is now how fast it wants to move interest rates back to neutral. If it keeps interest rates restrictive for too long with the economy already slowing, it risks pushing inflation below its 2% target. With growth under pressure now, it seems that the door is open for the ECB to move faster. While it does not seem like a done deal, it does bring the October meeting into play for a possible step up in easing.
Oil price falls to three-week low despite rising Middle East tensions
The oil price is falling today, which could keep European inflation pegged lower.
Brent crude has dropped by 1.75% so far today to $70.44 per barrel, the lowest in almost three weeks, despite rising tensions in the Middle East today.
Oil appears to be being pulled lower by the prospect of increased supplies, with the Opec+ group set to increase output in December.
Fears that slowing economic growth would hit demand for energy have also pushed the oil price lower.
This has helped oil traders overlook the news that Israel has launched a ground offensive against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon.
Joshua Mahony, analyst at Scope Markets, says:
With OPEC reconvening once again this week, there is a fear that we are set for a fresh reminder of the worsening supply situation in the event that the group raise production in December as planned.
Recent rumours have been circulating that Saudi Arabia want to reestablish their position by taking back market share from the US, and thus markets will be watching closely for any indication of future output. For markets, the continued weakness seen in energy markets does help depress inflation expectations, although traders will also be wary of the reflection this has on global economic activity.
Updated
Core inflation is running above the ECB’s 2% inflation target, though.
The core CPI rate, which strips out energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, dropped to 2.7% in September from 2.8% in August, Eurostat reports today.
Michael Field, European market strategist at Morningstar, says:
“Core inflation, the measure that strips out volatile components such as fuel and food, also fell by 0.1% to 2.7%. Granted, this number remains materially higher than the 2% targeted inflation level, however, it is at least moving in the right direction.
“With inflation seemingly settling at or around where we need it to be and unemployment stable, the ECB should be reaffirmed in its course of action. Expectations of one more cut before the end of 2024 are very achievable, given the data.”
Eurozone inflation falls below target, paving way for rate cut
Inflation across the eurozone has fallen below the official 2% target for the first time in three years, which may prompt further cuts to eurozone interest rates later this month.
Statistics body Eurostat estimates that annual inflation across the euro area was 1.8% in September 2024, down from 2.2% in August.
That’s the lowest reading for eurozone inflation since spring 2021, and the first time since June 2021 that CPI inflation has been below the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Price rises eased thanks to a drop in energy costs. Energy inflation was -6% in the year to September (meaning costs were lower than a year ago).
Services inflation slowed to 4% from 4.1% in August, while food, alcohol & tobacco inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.3%. Goods price inflation was unchanged at 0.4%.
Euro area #inflation expected to be 1.8% in September 2024, down from 2.2% in August. Components: services +4.0%, food, alcohol & tobacco +2.4%, other goods +0.4%, energy -6.0% - flash estimate https://t.co/46bCOvZNMl pic.twitter.com/5q6vurCV9G
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) October 1, 2024
Natasha May, global market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says today’s data “paves the way” for another ECB rate cut this month.
While a decline in headline inflation was widely expected, the fall was accompanied by early signs of easing price pressures in services. Alongside recently weaker activity data – which implies weaker longer-term inflation – this makes the case for speedier policy normalisation.
“More broadly, the eurozone rebound anticipated in early 2024 has turned out to be quite tepid. Consumers were expected to gain confidence from real income gains, driving a pick-up in spending. But confidence remains somewhat depressed and the manufacturing sector still looks very weak, raising the risk of inflation undershooting the ECB’s 2% target in the medium term. Today’s release should give the ECB more confidence that shorter-term price pressures are normalising, and therefore that interest rates should be normalised faster too.”
The ECB has cut interest rates twice this year, in June and September; it’s next monetary policy meeting is 17 October.
UK manufacturers also reported that their new export orders fell last month.
Subdued market conditions in Europe were the main factor weighing on overseas demand, with France and Germany the principal concerns.
Lower demand from US clients was also cited.
Biggest drop in UK manufacturing confidence since March 2020
Newsflash: Worries about this month’s budget, and the Middle East crisis, have hit confidence across UK manufacturing last month.
Data provider S&P Global has reported that business confidence among factory bosses fell to a nine-month low last month, and at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic hit the UK four and a half years ago.
They say that the autumn budget led to a “wait-and-see approach” to decision making, with production and new business slowing last month.
[That fits with this morning’s warning from the Institute of Directors that bosses are gloomier, following the warnings that Rachel Reeves’s first budget will be tough].
Although output and new order growth eased, S&P’s UK manufacturing PMI has remained in growth territory at 51.5, down from August’s 26-month high of 52.5.
That suggests there was a “solid expansion” in the UK manufacturing sector last month.
Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence says:
“The UK manufacturing sector is still expanding at a solid, albeit slightly slower, pace. Output rose for the fifth successive month in September, underpinned by a resilient domestic market.
However, manufacturers have become more nervous about the outlook, suggesting that the current spell of impressive growth is fading, with business optimism about the year-ahead slumping to a nine-month low.
The extent of the drop in confidence was striking, beaten only by that seen in March 2020 prior to COVID lockdowns. Uncertainty about the direction of government policy ahead of the coming Autumn Budget was a clear cause of the loss of confidence, especially given recent gloomy messaging, though firms are also worried about wider global geopolitical issues and economic growth risks.
The PMI survey has also showed that input cost inflation accelerated to a 20-month high last month, which led manufacturers to further push up their selling prices.
Dobson explains:
Freight cost rises are a big factor underlying the resurgence in the price measures, as supply chains continue to feel the strain of the Red Sea crisis and global conflicts.”
Updated
Mulberry rejects £83m takeover bid from Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group
More takeover drama, this time in the UK, where handbag maker Mulberry has rejected an £83m takeover proposal from Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group.
Mulberry has slapped down Ashley’s offer, insisting instead that it would push on with a planned fundraising to support a turnaround.
The luxury brand said it had considered the approach carefully and consulted its 56.1% majority shareholder Challice, controlled by the Singaporean entrepreneur Christina Ong, who had “no interest” in pursuing the possible offer.
Frasers, which owns Sports Direct, Evans Cycles, the House of Fraser department stores and multiple other retail brands from Slazenger to Jack Wills, has a 36.8% stake in Mulberry. On Monday, it said it was making an offer for the rest of the company worth 130p a share, pitting itself against its rival large shareholder.
The Mulberry board said on Tuesday it believed the recent appointment of Andrea Baldo as chief executive, along with the emergency £10.75m share placing announced late on Friday, “provides the company with a solid platform to execute a turnaround”.
“In light of this, the board has concluded that the possible offer does not recognise the company’s substantial future potential value. In addition, the board has been informed that Challice is supportive of the company’s strategy.”
Frasers has been given a “put up or shut up” deadline of 5pm on 28 October to announce a firm intention to make an offer for Mulberry, or walk away.
Euro area manufacturing production falls at steepest pace in 2024 to date
Factory production across the eurozone has shrunk at the fastest pace so far this year, according to the latest poll of purchasing managers.
Production, new orders, employment and procurement activity all fell at a faster rate last month, data firm S&P Global had reported.
This pulled its eurozone manufacturing PMI index down to 45.0 in September, from August’s 45.8, but slightly higher than the ‘flash’ reading last week.
That’s a nine-month low, and further below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.
The eurozone was dragged down by its two largest members; Germany recorded the worst decline in factory conditions for 12 months, while France’s manufacturing also contracted.
Spain, though, recorded its fastest growth in four months.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, says:
“It is a real shame that Spain is only the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone.
While handling the global manufacturing downturn surprisingly well, Spain just does not have enough weight to lift the rest of the eurozone with it. The worsening industrial slump in Germany, for example, is too big for Spain’s momentum in September to make much of a difference.
According to our nowcast model, eurozone industrial production will likely drop by around 1% in the third quarter compared to the last one. With incoming orders plummeting fast, we can expect another dip in production by year-end.
Updated
UK business leaders' confidence slides in September
UK business leaders are growing more pessimistic about the prospects for the economy, the Institute of Directors (IoD) has warned.
The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index, released this morning, has fallen to -38 points for September, down from -12 in August.
That’s the lowest reading since December 2022, when the UK economy was recovering from the shock of the mini-budget.
Business leader confidence in their own organisations also fell from to +23 in August to +15 in September, having already dropped from +36 in July.
Bosses are reining in their investment plans, the IoD reports, and trimming their recruitment plans.
Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said:
“Business confidence and investment expectations both took a further and larger dive in September. IoD members cite ongoing concerns over likely tax increases, the cost of workers’ rights, international competitiveness, broader cost pressures and the general outlook for UK economic growth.
“There are a number of policy announcements forthcoming which could help foster a more supportive environment for growth and investment, and underpin an improvement in business confidence. In the next few weeks we expect to see more detail on industrial strategy, the business tax roadmap and a likely update to the fiscal rules to better recognise the contribution of public sector investment to the UK’s asset base. These all have the potential to create a more steady environment for business decision-makers in the UK.”
The IoD’s survey follows similar recent polls which have shown a drop in both consumer and business confidence, following warnings that the budget later this month will include tax rises.
Updated
There’s takeover drama in Germany this morning.
Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has agreed to buy German chemicals producer Covestro in a €14.7bn deal.
It’s one of the biggest foreign takeovers by a Gulf state, as ADNOC tries to transform itself into a fully integrated energy company.
ADNOC International announced today that it has entered into an investment agreement with Germany-headquartered chemicals giant @covestro.
— ADNOC Group (@ADNOCGroup) October 1, 2024
This marks a step change for ADNOC, supporting our international growth strategy focused on chemicals, gas and low-carbon energies. pic.twitter.com/2ihcQ1VpG1
About 45,000 workers begin strike at US ports
Over in the US, dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast have begun a strike that will disrupt about half the country’s ocean shipping.
The port workers’ first large-scale stoppage in nearly 50 years began after negotiations for a new work contract broke down over the issue of wages.
The strike blocks everything from food to automobile shipments across dozens of ports from Maine to Texas, in a disruption analysts warned will cost the economy billions of dollars a day, threaten jobs, and stoke inflation.
Workers began picketing at the port of Philadelphia shortly after midnight, the Associated Press reported, walking in a circle at a rail crossing outside the port and chanting, “No work without a fair contract.”
The port of Virginia also confirmed the work stoppage.
Some 45,000 US dockworkers are now on strike, shutting east and gulf coast ports. Some notes:
— shane boyle (@brechtfast) October 1, 2024
-Each week of a strike will wipe off .1% of GDP ($7.5 billion)
-these ports handle 3/5’s of US commercial traffic
-100k ancillary workers are affected
-fruit shortages will come first
Updated
Greggs: Cost inflation lower than we thought
Bakery chain Greggs has revealed that its costs are rising more slowly than it expected.
In a trading update today, Greggs says that it now expects the overall level of cost inflation for 2024 to be towards the lower end of the 4-5% range which it had previously expected.
Greggs adds that:
Whilst acknowledging ongoing economic uncertainty, the Board expects the full year outcome to be in line with its previous expectations.
Greggs has reported that total sales rose by 10.6% in the last quarter, to the end of September, a slowdown on the 12.7% sales growth during 2024 so far.
#GRG Greggs Trading Update
— entrustTMF (@entrustTMF) October 1, 2024
"Further good progress, full year outlook unchanged"https://t.co/735klMZEci pic.twitter.com/Z9kgHD9fZl
Greggs also reports that its autumn menu is now available, including an All-Day Breakfast Baguette and Mexican Bean & Spicy Cheese Flatbread.
It adds:
We’ve also introduced a Pumpkin Spice Doughnut to our sweet range, complementing the return of our seasonal drinks range including the Pumpkin Spice Latte and Salted Caramel Latte which are both also available as part of our over ice range.
UK shop prices move further into deflation
There is some relief for households, though – shop prices are falling at the fastest rate in three years.
Despite an increase in food inflation, overall prices in the shops fell by 0.6% in the year to September, twice as fast as the 0.3% deflation recorded in August, according to the British Retail Consortium.
Non-food prices were 2.1% cheaper than a year ago, while food inflation rose to 2.3% in September, up from 2.0% in August.
Helen Dickinson OBE, chief executive of the BRC, says:
“September was a good month for bargain hunters as big discounts and fierce competition pushed shop prices further into deflation. Shop Price inflation is now at its lowest level in over three years, with monthly prices dropping in seven of the last nine months.
This was driven by non-food, with Furniture and Clothing showing the biggest drops in inflation as retailers tried to entice shoppers back. Food inflation edged up slightly as poor harvests in key producing regions led to higher prices for cooking oils and sugary products.
“Easing price inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate change, and government-imposed regulatory costs could all reverse this trend
Deflation means prices are lower than they were a year ago. But, of course, while the rate of price changes is negative, the level of prices is still much higher than before the surge of inflation began in 2021.
National Energy System Operator launches today
Today’s energy price cap rise comes as the company responsible for keeping Great Britain’s lights on has returned to public ownership for the first time in over thirty years as it prepares to make the electricity system 95% carbon-free by 2030.
Ownership of the electricity system operator has transferred from National Grid to the government to form a new National Energy System Operator (Neso) from today.
The new publicly owned organisation, which will be responsible for Great Britain’s electricity and gas systems, is expected to map a route towards the government’s green energy goals. The government hopes that by bringing together gas and electricity under one publicly owned company, the new system operator can adopt a more strategic approach to achieving a clean power system by 2030.
Neso’s chief executive, Fintan Slye, told the Observer that its roadmap would stop short of the Labour party’s pre-election pledge to create a “zero carbon electricity system” by 2030 in favour of a clean power target which is 95% free of carbon emissions.
He said:
“That means that by 2030 95% of the generation in Great Britain over the period of a year will be from clean power sources. And that means that the remaining 5% will come from unabated gas.”.
Slye said the “hugely ambitious” target to create a clean power system by 2030 would require Britain “to do everything that we can do quicker - but also very, very differently as well”. Its roadmap towards 2030 is expected to include advice on reforming the regulation around planning and consenting and speeding up the grid connections process.
Neso is also expected to work alongside GB Energy, a public company set up by the Labour government to invest in low-carbon energy, to help connect new generation projects with the electricity grid.
The decision to remove the ESO from National Grid’s ownership was made under the previous Conservative government because of concerns over a conflict of interest relating to the operator’s role providing strategic advice to government officials.
Here’s our profile of Slye, from last weekend’s Observer:
Ovo boss says Labour should launch energy social tariff
The boss of Ovo Energy has called for sweeping changes to the UK’s energy bills system so they are subsidised for poorer households, as consumers face another rise in fuel costs this winter.
Chief executive David Buttress told the PA news agency the Government should introduce a social tariff, something which is already used in the telecoms industry to help people who receive benefits like Universal Credit pay their broadband bills.
The measure, which campaign groups have proposed for several years, would likely take the form of a targeted discount energy deal for poorer customers, and could be below the price of the cheapest available standard energy tariff.
Buttress said:
“A social tariff would allow us to address the cost of energy for the poorest in our communities in a way that means, collectively, we could give them the protection they need to get through the winter months.”
Resolution Foundation: 7.7 million households are suffering from fuel stress
The Resolution Foundation is warning today that 7.7 million households in England – including the majority of families with children – are at risk of “fuel stress” this winter.
Their analysis of government data found that 37% of all households faced “fuel stress”, defined as families needing to spend more than 10% of their income on heating their homes excluding housing costs.
It found that 77% of single-parent households are likely to experience “fuel stress” this winter, highlighting the impact of today’s increase in the energy price cap.
Alex Clegg, economist at the Resolution Foundation, says this shows how poorly targeted Winter Fuel Payments are, and why alternative support will be needed this winter.
Clegg adds:
“Couples with children are more than twice as likely to experience fuel stress as pensioner households, so any new support should not be limited to pensioners. Reforming and expanding Cold Weather Payments offers a viable quick-fix solution to help keep households warm when the mercury drops this winter.
“Looking beyond this winter, the Government should prioritise developing a social tariff and investing in energy efficiency for our homes. This would help to ensure that vulnerable families are insulated from future energy shocks, whatever their age or circumstances.”
More here:
Introduction: Energy price cap rises today
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s October, which means the nights are drawing in, the temperature is dropping, and arguments can begin about when to turn the heating on.
But flicking the boiler on has just become more expensive, adding to the burden on millions of households as winter approaches.
Average energy bills across Great Britain have just risen by £149 a year today, as the latest energy price cap kicks in.
The cap, set each quarter by regulator Ofgem based on the wholesale price of energy, has just risen by 10% to £1,717 a year for an average dual-fuel household in Great Britain paying by direct debit.
That’s an increase of almost £150 per year compared with the cap in April-June, based on the energy use for a typical household.
And while the cap is lower than the £2,500 at which the last government froze maximum bills at the height of the energy crisis, it’s still sharply higher than in autumn 2021, when average bills were capped at £1,277 a year.
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation is warning today that poorer families are already struggling to cope.
JRF research has found that, back in May, 2.9 million low-income households had been unable to keep their home warm in the previous six months, while 4.3 million had fallen behind with their household bills.
Katie Schmuecker, principal policy adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, says:
“Today’s energy price cap rise looms over families who are forced to heat their homes less than they should. It is more than three years since energy prices started to rise, creating an unacceptable level of prolonged hardship for millions of families who are still paying well above what they were before the cost-of-living crisis started. This looks like another winter of sleeping in a coat, not showering, and only cooking once a week, to try to keep the bills down.
“Families who already can’t pay their energy bills can no longer count on cost-of-living payments to provide any relief. We need to see an urgent plan for hardship at the upcoming Budget to stop those with the least going hungry and cold this winter.”
Yesterday, a seperate survey warned that almost half of British adults will ration their energy use this winter.
The agenda
9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI report for September
9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI report for September
10am BST: Eurozone inflation report for September
2.45pm BST: US manufacturing PMI report for September
