Closing post
Time to wrap up,…
Gold has hit a new record high of $2,954 per ounce, as investors flock to safe-haven assets as geopolitical tensions rise.
With relations between the US and Ukraine deteriorating, analysts suggest gold could soon hit the $3k/ounce mark.
Anxiety over the path of peace talks also hit the value of Ukranian government debt today.
From gold to Goldfinger…. James Bond is now in the hands of a billionaire’s business empire.
Amazon has struck a deal with Michael G Wilson, and Barbara Broccoli, the heirs to the legendary film producer Albert “Cubby” Broccoli, to take creative control of the spy franchise.
The agreement will give Amazon “creative control” of the franchise, potentially opening the door to production starting on a long-awaited new film and also to a variety of spin-off TV shows for the Amazon Prime streaming service.
Diamonds aren’t forever for mining giant Anglo American, though – it has slashed the value of its De Beers division by $2.9bn, as it struggles to spin off the unit.
UK bank Lloyds reported a 20% drop in profits this morning, due to an additional £700m provision for possible compensation payments in the motor finance scandal.
This didn’t scare the living daylights off investors, though – Lloyds shares are up over 5% this afternoon.
Major savings providers have pledged to fight any attempts to cut tax breaks on cash Isas, arguing that this is no time for them to die.
And Airbus has brought a quantum of solace to the aerospace sector, by saying it hopes to make 820 planes this year as the world’s biggest aerospace manufacturer attempts to overcome problems in its supply chain.
Amazon’s shares aren’t getting a James Bond bounce – they’re down 1.4% in early trading.
Here’s our news story on James Bond’s long-serving producers handing over control to Amazon:
Film fans are reacting to Amazon’s takeover of the James Bond franchise, with some concerned that the US firm could now launch various streaming TV spin-offs:
Huge news from EON!!!
— Chris Eeles (@BigRedTrousers) February 20, 2025
After a lifetime stewarding and protecting the #jamesbond film franchise Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson are stepping back from producing the films and Amazon/MGM will lead James Bond into the future.
As a result of a new joint venture pic.twitter.com/mwZpb1CId4
It’s kinda sad to see the last family-owned movie franchise handed over to the suits, and I’m sure Amazon MGM is salivating, BUT…
— Joe Russo (@joerussotweets) February 20, 2025
DON’T cinematic universe James Bond.
It is one of our last, great theatrical events. Don’t dilute that with a plethora of streaming spin-offs. pic.twitter.com/1OZ4lHWv1V
the end of the James Bond films is here as amazon takes over creative control. it was a good run for few decades.
— edward b (@eab1608) February 20, 2025
That Amazon MGM news about them having creative control over James Bond is terrible news. Can easily see them doing spin-offs and streaming shows based on other characters 😢 pic.twitter.com/rh5EGkTplB
— Imperator Ryan B+ 👻🎃 (@TheChewDefense) February 20, 2025
Here’s Associated Press’s take on the Bond news:
In a James Bond shakeup that stirred the film industry, Amazon MGM announced Thursday that the studio has taken the creative reins of the 007 franchise after decades of family control. Longtime Bond custodians Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli said they would be stepping back.
Amazon MGM Studios, Wilson and Broccoli formed a new joint venture in which they will co-own James Bond intellectual property rights — but Amazon MGM will have creative control.
Financial terms weren’t disclosed. The deal is expected to close sometime this year.
“With my 007 career spanning nearly 60 incredible years, I am stepping back from producing the James Bond films to focus on art and charitable projects,” Wilson said in a statement.“Therefore, Barbara and I agree, it is time for our trusted partner, Amazon MGM Studios, to lead James Bond into the future.”
NEW YORK (AP) — James Bond film producers cede creative control of franchise to Amazon MGM after decades of family stewardship. pic.twitter.com/7SHbGgP5bo
— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) February 20, 2025
Amazon takes creative control of James Bond
Big news in the movie world: Amazon has just announced it is taking creative control of the James Bond franchise.
Amazon has formed a new joint venture with Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson, whose Eon production company have produced the Bond films.
This new venture will house the James Bond intellectual property rights, and remain co-owners of the franchise, but Amazon MGM Studios – formed when Amazon bought Bond’s parent studio in 2022 – will gain creative control.
This could potentially end the ongoing saga over who will replace Daniel Craig as the next James Bond and when the next film will be announced. Craig’s successor has yet to be announced, more than three years on from his final appearance as 007.
Mike Hopkins, head of Prime Video and Amazon MGM Studios, says:
“We are grateful to the late Albert R. Broccoli and Harry Saltzman for bringing James Bond to movie theatres around the world, and to Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli for their unyielding dedication and their role in continuing the legacy of the franchise that is cherished by legions of fans worldwide.
We are honoured to continue this treasured heritage, and look forward to ushering in the next phase of the legendary 007 for audiences around the world.”
The new joint venture comes after a Dubai-based property developer filed claims in the UK and Europe challenging the James Bond franchise.
As my colleague Mark Sweney reported last week, Austrian businessman Josef Kleindienst has filed a slew of “cancellation actions based on non-use” targeting the James Bond name.
Barbara Broccoli, whose father Albert produced many of the Bond films, says:
“My life has been dedicated to maintaining and building upon the extraordinary legacy that was handed to Michael and me by our father, producer Cubby Broccoli.
I have had the honour of working closely with four of the tremendously talented actors who have played 007 and thousands of wonderful artists within the industry. With the conclusion of No Time to Die and Michael retiring from the films, I feel it is time to focus on my other projects.”
The Bond films were launched by Broccoli in 1962, before his daughter, Barbara, and stepson Michael Wilson, took over.
Updated
In other gold news, exports of the precious metal from Switzerland to the United States hit a 13-year high in January.
Swiss customs data shows that Switzerland saw a surge in gold transfers to the US in recent months.
The move follows rrising concerns that Donald Trump could impose import tariffs on gold. That has helped to widen the price premium between US gold futures and London spot prices, leading to more deliveries into the US.
According to the Swiss data, gold exports to the US rose to 192.9 tons in January from 64.2 tons in December. That’s the highest monthly export total since at least 2012, Reuters reports.
Over in the US, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits has risen, but remains historically low.
There were 219,00 new initial claims for jobless support last week, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week.
US initial claims for the week of February 15: claims increase to 219K from 214K. Continuing claims for the week of February 8 advanced to 1.85 million from 1.845 million. There were 7,110 continued weeks claimed filed by former Federal civilian employees the week ending February…
— Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) February 20, 2025
In the previous week, the number of initial claims filed by former Federal civilian employees rose by 14 to 613. That’s notably higher than a year ago, when federal employees file 382 initial claims – perhaps a sign of the early impact of Elon Musk’s department of government efficiency” (Doge)….
Major savings providers have pledged to fight any attempts to cut tax breaks on cash Isas amid reports that the government is considering a plan to slash the maximum amount people can put into them from £20,000 a year to £4,000.
In recent weeks a row has broken out over whether ministers should scale back tax breaks on the popular savings accounts. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is being lobbied by some fund managers to put more focus on the riskier practice of investing in the stock market as a way of boosting economic growth.
Senior City executives have had meetings with Reeves, and at the most recent there were discussions about possibly limiting the cash Isa allowance to £4,000 a year, the Telegraph reported….
More here:
Analysts are attributing today’s rise in the gold price to the deterioration in relations between the US and Ukraine.
Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, explains:
Recent developments have contributed to a cautious return of risk appetite in global markets. Early attempts at peace talks in Eastern Europe have rekindled optimism, with the United States playing a crucial role in fast-tracking negotiations to resolve the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Initial concerns that the US might exclude Europe and Ukraine from discussions were allayed after a meeting in Riyadh, where it was confirmed that European participation would be integrated at a later stage.
Despite these positive signals, gold’s upward trend was briefly interrupted last week as broader market sentiment improved. However, ongoing uncertainty—exacerbated by unpredictable political figures and intermittent trade policy announcements—continues to bolster demand for safe-haven assets.
For instance, recent tariff announcements by Donald Trump, including a 25% tariff on auto imports and similar measures on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, have added to the market’s cautious tone.
And here’s David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation:
Gold rallied again overnight, pushing to a fresh record high and trading above $2,950 for the first time ever. It continues to trade in ‘overbought’ territory as measured by the daily MACD [a technical indicator]
But investors seem to be relatively unfazed by this, as the rally since the end of December has been steady and measured. In fact, this is the definition of a ‘stealth rally’, one which has brought a succession of record highs, yet has been largely ignored by investors. Perhaps the reason for this is that gold’s rally has been largely technical. Non-OECD central banks have been adding to their holdings for a while now, but this isn’t much of a story. Now, there’s the uncertainty surrounding the actions of the Trump administration, with the possibility that tariffs, deregulation and tax cuts add to inflationary pressures. Couple that with Trump’s hostile attitude to President Zelensky of Ukraine, and his cosying up to Russian President Putin, and suddenly gold looks attractive as a potential ‘safe haven’ away from ‘overvalued’ US equities.
Over in the US, shares in hypermarket giant Walmart have dropped 8% in pre-market trading as investors give its latest outlook the thumbs-down.
Walmart has predicted it will grow its net sales by between 3% and 4% in the current financial year, disappointing analysts who had pencilled in a 4% rise.
That would represent a slowdown compared with the last financial year, in which net sales rose by 5% to $674.5bn.
In the last quarter, revenues rose by 5.3%.
Doug McMillon, president and CEO at Walmart, says:
Our team finished the year with another quarter of strong results. We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an eCommerce business driven by faster delivery times.
We’re gaining market share, our top line is healthy, and we’re in great shape with inventory. We’ll stay focused on growth, improving operating margins, and strengthening ROI as we invest to serve our customers and members even better.”
Mercedes-Benz warns 2025 profits will be ‘significantly’ lower, and lays out cost-cutting plans
German carmaker Mercedez-Benz has announced a new cost-cutting plan as it tries to ride out the shift to electric cars, and warned that profits will fall this year.
Mercedez-Benz predicted today that earnings in 2025 will be “significantly below the previous year’s level”, due to the “challenging” market environment.
The company also laid out a “roadmap for profitable growth”, which will include cutting production costs by 10% until 2027.
It says:
Material costs will be tackled in close collaboration with suppliers and fixed-cost reductions will continue through to 2027, building on significant progress achieved over the past four years.
After another slump in output, UK factories are hopeful that the next three months may be better.
The CBI’s latest industrial trends report shows that manufacturing output volumes fell in the quarter to February.
Looking ahead, manufacturers are more optimistic, expecting a modest rise in volumes in the three months to May.
Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI, says:
The survey paints a downbeat picture of the manufacturing sector over the last three months, which can be attributed in part to low domestic business confidence following the Autumn Budget combined with a subdued international environment.
Manufacturers expect to raise output in the quarter ahead. But with firms having rapidly run down stocks of finished goods, it’s possible that the need to re-build inventories partly explains this rebound. Order books remain weak from a long-term perspective.
Updated
Gold hits record high
The gold price has hit a new all time high today, putting the $3,000 per ounce level within sight.
Spot gold has gained 0.7% today to $2,954 per ounce, meaning it has risen by over 12% so far this year.
Goldd is benefitting from rising trade tensions stirred up by Donald Trump, and by recent signs that inflationary pressures are rising.
✨ Gold Hits Record High Amid Uncertainty ✨
— Phillip Nova (@Phillip_Nova) February 20, 2025
Spot Gold surged to a new all-time high of $2,954.79, driven by uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Volatility may persist until there’s more clarity on these developments.
Meanwhile, Goldman… pic.twitter.com/OJBeZ1ds62
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, says gold is benefitting from being a safe haven as traders mull the inflationary risks of US tariffs and geo-political risks.
Streeter adds:
The precious metal is riding high at record levels amid concerns about Trump’s trade and foreign policy stances. Tensions remain high around talks over Ukraine after the US President referred to President Zelensky as a dictator. The US message that Europe should do more itself to counter military threats, is adding to concerns about a fracturing of solid defence relations.
Geopolitical tensions have also pushed up demand for gold.
Inki Cho, financial markets strategist consultant to Exness, says President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a new 25% tariff on key imports, including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, sparked a “risk-off” dash into safer assets, adding:
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine adds another layer of complexity. The US started negotiations with Russia, raising hopes for a resolution. Steady progress in negotiations could strengthen risk appetite, putting pressure on gold. Conversely, any setbacks may reinforce gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Updated
Pessimism over the deepening rift between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have also hit Ukranian iron ore pellet maker Ferrrexpo.
Ferrexpo’s share price has fallen 10% today to a one-week low.
Ukraine government bond prices fall
The value of Ukraine’s government bonds are falling again this morning, as relations between Washington DC and Kyiv deteriorate alarmingly.
Reuters has the details:
The country’s GDP warrant shed 2 cents, to be bid at 81.05 cents, while the 2035 maturity bond lost 2.4 cents to be bid at 63 cents.
The selloff comes after Donald Trump called Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator”, after the Ukrainian president said Trump lives in a ‘disinformation bubble’.
Ukraine’s bonds have been weakening this week, after US and Russian officials began talks in Saudi Arabia without Kyiv, or Europe, at the table.
European markets also weakened yesterday, as hopes for a resolution of the conflict weakened.
Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says:
That followed a social media post from President Trump that was highly critical of Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, referring to him as “a dictator without elections”.
This followed President Zelenskyy’s comments earlier in the day that US proposals on Ukrainian minerals were “not a serious conversation”. So that backdrop led to a renewed underperformance for regional assets, including Ukraine dollar bonds and CEE currencies.
Updated
In another worrying economic signal, a third of UK small businesses are planning to axe jobs amid worries over soaring staff costs.
A poll of nearly 1,400 firms by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) in the final quarter of last year revealed that 33% expect to reduce their workforces, up from 17% in the previous three months.
Centrica profits slump
The owner of British Gas has reported a slump in its annual profits after the supplier was ousted as Britain’s largest provider of gas and electricity for the first time last year.
The supplier’s parent company, Centrica, reported adjusted earnings of £2.3bn for last year, down by a third from 2023 when its profits reached £3.5bn after a £500m windfall from the energy regulator.
Ofgem allowed all suppliers to recover the unexpected costs of the energy crisis in the first half of 2023 by adjusting the energy price cap, which helped British Gas to a profit of £751m.
The household supplier’s operating profit slumped to £297m last year, but Centrica said that excluding the impact of the one-off Ofgem allowance meant its performance was “relatively comparable” to the year before.
Centrica also announced a new £500m share buyback programme, news which has helped push its shares up by 10% iin early trading.
Britain’s economic woes mean busy times for those who handle failing businesses.
Begbies Traynor, the UK’s largest insolvency practitioner, reported this morning it has a “strong pipeline” of business.
Ric Traynor, executive chairman of Begbies Traynor, says:
We have maintained the strong performance reported at the half year, and continue to see encouraging activity levels and positive momentum across the group.
With recent reports of rising insolvencies and business financial distress, market conditions remain supportive. We therefore continue to invest in and develop our teams to take advantage of opportunities for growth.
Updated
Here’s our news story on Lloyds’s rising potential compensation bill from the motor finance scandal:
Anglo American takes $2.9bn De Beers writedown
Mining giant Anglo American has written down the value of its struggling De Beers diamond unit by $2.9bn, as it continues to seek a buyer for the division.
Anglo blamed “prevailing diamond market conditions” for its decision to cut the carrying value of De Beers again, on top of a $1.6bn writedown a year ago.
Last year, when it was rebuffing a takever approach from rival BHP, Anglo announced it would spin off De Beers.
That sale, though, has been hampered by poor conditions in the diamond market, due to weak demand from China, cautious consumers, and the rise of lab-grown diamonds.
Today, Anglo says:
The work to separate De Beers is well under way, with action taken to strengthen cash flow in the near term and position De Beers for long-term success and value realisation.
The De Beers impairment helped to pull Anglo into the red last year – this morning it reported a loss attributable to equity shareholders of $3.1bn.
After writing down the value of its diamond subsidiary De Beers by $1.6 billion in 2024, now mining giant Anglo American is taking a further $2.9 billion impairment. Difficult to see how Anglo can monetise its diamond business — as it has promised to shareholders. 💎⛏️
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) February 20, 2025
Updated
Shares in Lloyds have jumped over 2% in early trading, despite this morning’s profits miss.
Investors may be cheered that Lloyds has announced a new £1.7bn share buyback programme, to return excess capital to shareholders.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says LLoyd’s £700m motor finance charge has ‘tarnished’ a strong final quarter:
“Lloyds has capped off a strong year with a clouded fourth-quarter result, setting aside a hefty £700m provision for potential charges related to the ongoing motor finance saga. While you could argue the provision is overly cautious, Lloyds holds the largest exposure of any major UK bank, and the outcome remains uncertain. Despite this, the stock is up over 40% in the past year, reflecting a solid banking outlook and robust performance.
Beneath the surface, Lloyds is delivering strong results. Excluding the motor finance charge, fourth-quarter figures exceeded expectations, thanks to borrowers performing better than anticipated. Remarkably, Lloyds has managed to improve its loan quality over the course of the year, defying fears that borrowers would buckle under the pressure of persistent inflation.
Lloyds sets aside another £700m for motor finance scandal
Lloyds profits were hit by rising costs from the motor finance scandal.
The bank has put aside another £700m to cover possible compensation from customers caught up in the car loans commission scandal, in which lenders paid a “secret” commission to the car dealers who had arranged a loan for a buyer.
LLoyds CEO Charlie Nunn says:
In the fourth quarter we took an additional £700 million provision for the potential remediation costs relating to motor finance commission arrangements.
This is in light of the Court of Appeal judgment on Wrench, Johnson and Hopcraft that goes beyond the scope of the original FCA motor finance commissions review.
Wrench, Johnson and Hopcraft are the three consumers who won a Court of Appeal hearing over motor dealers acting as credit brokers in arranging hire-purchase agreements for car buyers, and whether lenders are liable in cases of undisclosed or “partially disclosed” commission.
LLoyds has now set aside £1.15bn in provisions for motor finance compensation, but warns today there is “a significant level of uncertainty in terms of the final outcome”.
LLoyds profits fall 20%
Lloyds Banking Group, which is something of a bellwether for the UK economy, has missed City expectations this morning by reporting a 20% drop in profits last year.
Lloyds reported a pre-tax profit of £5.97bn for 2024, a fifth lower than the £7.5bn it made in 2023.
Analysts had expected profits of around £6.4bn.
Income was hit by a lower “lower banking net interest margin”, as interest rate cuts ate into lending margins at the UK’s largest high street lender.
It has also run up higher remediation and impairment charges (of which more in a moment…)
Lloyds reports that its loans and advances to customers rose by £10.2bn to £459.9bn last year, including £6.1bn growth in UK mortgages.
Customer deposits “significantly increased” in the year by £11.3bn, to £482.7bn.
And encouragingly, Lloyds has improved its economic outlook, following recent house price growth and after assessing the risks from inflation and interest rates.
Updated
UK consumer confidence sinks to new low
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
Confidence among UK consumers has dropped off a cliff since last summer, as people – particularly women – grow more worried about the state of the economy, and their own finances.
A new survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Opinium has found that the public’s expectations for the economy worsened for a fifth month running in February,
Households are also gloomier about their own personal finances, as they anticipate further price rises in the shops – as retailers pass on higher taxes.
February’s drop in confidence continues a decline that started last July, when the Labour party won the general election – and swiftly began warning about ‘tough choices’ and ‘painful decisions’ to fix the country’s finances.
Last October’s budget, with its increase in the national insurance contributions (NICs) paid by businesses, appears to have also hit confidence.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, explains:
People’s expectations of the economy reached a new low, having fallen almost 40pts since July 2024.
Even Gen Z (18-27), the most upbeat generation on the economy and their own finances, saw a drop off in optimism. There was also a widening gender divide in confidence this month, with women more pessimistic than men about both the economy and their own finances by 13 and 17pts respectively.
With many businesses warning of the impact that April’s employer NIC’s increase will have on hiring, and the rising energy price cap pushing up the cost of domestic bills, it is little surprise that many households are worried. And while there was a positive increase in expectations of personal retail spending, this may be largely driven by the expectations of higher prices in the future.
Here’s the details of the survey:
The state of the economy worsened to -37 in February, down from -34 in January. This is the fifth consecutive month in which expectations have worsened.
Their personal financial situation dropped to -11 in February, down from -4 in January.
Their personal spending on retail rose to -5 in February, up from -9 in January.
Their personal spending overall remained at +4 in February, the same as in January.
Their personal saving remained at -3 in February, the same as in January.
Dickinson suggests consumers are correct to anticipate higher prices:
Expectations of higher prices are not unfounded, with two-thirds of retailers saying prices will have to rise as a result of the £7bn in additional costs, including higher employer NICs and a new packaging levy. Almost half of retailers also warned of hiring freezes, with entry-level jobs often among the first to go as they seek any cost efficiencies to help them protect customers from the worst of the rising costs.
As the Government bill on the future of business rates progresses through Parliament, it is essential that no shop ends up paying more in rates as a result of these reforms, otherwise retailers will face a triple whammy of Budget costs, business rates rises, and new packaging and recycling levies, all of which will filter through to consumer prices.
The agenda
11am CBI industrial trends report
1.30pm US initial jobless claims data
3pm Eurozone consumer confidence report for February
Updated
