Three years after Ugandan troops crossed into eastern Democratic Republic of Congo to fight rebels linked to the Islamic State, their mission has yielded mixed results, with accusations that Kampala is secretly supporting another Congolese rebel group raising questions about its motives.
Launched alongside Congolese forces, Operation Shujaa – meaning "bravery" in Swahili – has pushed back the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels from some strongholds near the Ugandan border.
The ADF, which has ties to the Islamic State, is eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) deadliest armed group – United Nations figures show its fighters killed some 1,000 people in 2023.
Security gains
For residents in some parts of eastern DRC, life has become less fraught. The curfew in the city of Beni has been lifted, and the route from Beni to Kasindi no longer requires armed escorts. “In this area, progress has been made, even though the massacres have not stopped,” said one member of local civil society.
The ADF has been forced out of several key locations, including Rwenzori and the so-called “triangle of death” region encompassing Oicha, Kamango and Eringeti.
Schools there have reopened, and some rebel commanders have been killed or captured. "Their ability to cause harm has been degraded," Brigadier General Felix Kulayigye, spokesman for the Ugandan military, told RFI.
Many ADF fighters are now on the move to avoid capture. “It has become harder for them to establish camps because they know they are being pursued. They operate in small groups, conducting most of their attacks as they move,” explained Reagan Mirivi, a researcher at the Congolese think tank Ebuteli.
This has weakened the group's ability to resupply, and to raid local harvests. Some fighters who have left the group said they could no longer feed themselves, often going days without eating.
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ADF's geographical expansion
But despite military efforts, the ADF remains a deadly force. The group has extended its geographical reach, moving inland and striking areas that were previously untouched. The epicentre of its attacks has shifted westward from Beni towards Irumu and Mambasa in Ituri province.
The ADF threat has also moved south – their first strike in Tshopo province killed five people according to SITE Intelligence Group, an American NGO which monitors jihadist groups.
“A lot of this stems from the fact that when Ugandan forces struck at the ADF, they didn’t position troops to contain the threat,” said a diplomatic source. This allowed the rebels to scatter and carry out attacks in previously unaffected areas.
While the group’s dispersion has weakened its logistical capabilities, its brutality persists. A UN report highlighted how the ADF has increasingly targeted civilians as part of a strategy to retaliate against military operations.
Regional tensions
Uganda’s role in the region has raised eyebrows, with critics questioning whether it is fully committed to dismantling the ADF, or is instead pursuing its own interests.
UN experts have accused Uganda of secretly supporting M23, a Rwandan-backed rebel group that controls swathes of eastern DRC. A June 2024 UN report said rebels had been permitted to move freely across borders and to host meetings.
While Uganda denies these claims, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi is demanding public proof of its good faith.
Observers say military operations have mainly secured areas close to the Ugandan border. "It’s almost as if their only priority was to push the threat further away from their zone of interest,” said Mirivi.
When asked about potential clashes between Ugandan forces and M23 rebels advancing north, Brigadier General Kulayigye said: "We will advise in due course; we are not there yet."
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Trade routes
For Uganda, Operation Shujaa is not just about security, it is also about economics.
“Beyond fighting the ADF, the operation helps Uganda monitor road construction and safeguard its oil projects,” Belgian researcher Kristof Titeca told RFI.
But Uganda’s influence there is under pressure from Rwanda, whose backing of M23 has enabled the group to gain control of strategic territories. “To protect its economic interests, Uganda must maintain good ties with Kinshasa while ensuring Rwanda doesn’t dominate the region,” Titeca explained.
Eastern DRC is also a crucial export market for Uganda, notably in the gold trade. "For both Rwanda and Uganda, gold has been the main export product since 2016. And it's an open secret that much of this 'Ugandan' gold comes from Congo," Titeca added.
Uganda has also renewed plans to build infrastructure connecting the two countries. In October, President Yoweri Museveni pledged to construct a road between Kasindi and Butembo and another between Goma and Bunagana.
However, these projects have drawn criticism, with the Goma-Bunagana road dubbed the “road of discord” for its potential to spark tensions with Rwanda.
Uganda’s strategy appears to be one of balancing competing interests: maintaining access to Congo’s lucrative trade routes, countering Rwanda’s growing influence and addressing domestic economic challenges.
In Titeca's view: “Kampala adjusts its strategy depending on the context, but the constant is the preservation of its own interests."
This story has been adapted from the original version in French by Florence Morice
