The Georgia Bulldogs are not likely to make the College Football Playoff with a loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC championship.
The Michigan Wolverines, Washington Huskies, and Florida State Seminoles are all undefeated entering their respective conference championship games, which means if any of these teams win, then they are in (along with Georgia).
The Texas Longhorns are 11-1 and hold a win over Alabama, so Texas could block the Crimson Tide from making the College Football Playoff. If Georgia fell to Alabama, then the Crimson Tide would be ranked over Georgia. The selection committee really values conference championships, which means that Texas (assuming the Longhorns beat Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship) would make the playoff over Georgia and Alabama if Alabama wins.
Georgia’s only realistic option to make the College Football Playoff is to defeat Alabama in the SEC championship. The Bulldogs’ only other potential path would involve two major upsets in conference championship games. Two of the three would have to happen: Louisville beating Florida State in the ACC championship, Oklahoma State upsetting Texas, and Iowa shocking Michigan in the Big Ten championship. In this scenario, Alabama, Georgia, the winner of the Pac-12 championship (Oregon vs. Washington), and one other team would make up the College Football Playoff.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Georgia a 52.3% chance of beating Alabama. The Dawgs have a 56.2% of making to College Football Playoff, so (as previously mentioned) there are scenarios where Georgia could make the playoff with a SEC championship loss, but they are highly unlikely.
Georgia’s situation is simple. Win and you’re in. The Bulldogs can’t afford to lose against Alabama in the SEC title game like they did in 2021.
