(This story was updated to add new information.)
Take a look at the 2025 betting upsets in the UFC.
For an underdog to be included on this list, the favorite had to be a consensus minimum of -150 across major sportsbooks. That will keep the list from being populated with truly minor upsets from betting lines that easily could have swung the opposite way.
Fighters are listed alphabetically, followed by an event-by-event upset tracker.
(Updated through UFC 311)
Raoni Barcelos vs. Payton Talbott
Event: UFC 311 | Jan. 18, 2025
Location: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, Calif.
Result: Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Odds: Talbott -1200, Barcelos +750
Felipe Bunes def. Jose Johnson
Event: UFC Fight Night 249 | Jan. 11, 2025
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Result: Felipe Bunes def. Jose Johnson via submission (armbar) – Round 1, 2:04
Odds: Johnson -180, Bunes +150
Mackenzie Dern def. Amanda Ribas
Event: UFC Fight Night 249 | Jan. 11, 2025
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Result: Mackenzie Dern def. Amanda Ribas via submission (armbar) – Round 3, 4:56
Odds: Ribas -190, Dern +160
Merab Dvalishvili def. Umar Nurmagomedov
Event: UFC 311 | Jan. 18, 2025
Location: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, Calif.
Result: Merab Dvalishvili def. Umar Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Odds: Nurmagomedov -280, Dvalishvili +225
Muin Gafurov def. Rinya Nakamura
Event: UFC 311 | Jan. 18, 2025
Location: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, Calif.
Result: Muin Gafurov def. Rinya Nakamura via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Odds: Nakamura -675, Gafurov +490
Bruno Lopes def. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
Event: UFC Fight Night 249 | Jan. 11, 2025
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Result: Bruno Lopes def. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Odds: Gadzhiyasulov -275, Lopes +215
Ailin Perez def. Karol Rosa
Event: UFC 311 | Jan. 18, 2025
Location: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, Calif.
Result: Ailin Perez def. Karol Rosa via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Odds: Rosa -250, Perez +205
Christian Rodriguez def. Austin Bashi
Event: UFC Fight Night 249 | Jan. 11, 2025
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Result: Christian Rodriguez def. Austin Bashi via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Odds: Bashi -270 Rodriguez +215
Punahele Soriano def. Uros Medic
Event: UFC Fight Night 249 | Jan. 11, 2025
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Result: Punahele Soriano def. Uros Medic via knockout (punches) – Round 1, 0:31
Odds: Medic -225, Soriano +180
UFC 311 upsets
- Merab Dvalishvili def. Umar Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
- Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
- Ailin Perez def. Karol Rosa via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
- Muin Gafurov def. Rinya Nakamura via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
UFC Fight Night 249 upsets
- Mackenzie Dern def. Amanda Ribas via submission (armbar) – Round 3, 4:56
- Christian Rodriguez def. Austin Bashi via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
- Punahele Soriano def. Uros Medic via knockout (punches) – Round 1, 0:31
- Felipe Bunes def. Jose Johnson via submission (armbar) – Round 1, 2:04
- Bruno Lopes def. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
