MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 44.
UFC on ESPN 44 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.
Max Holloway (23-7 MMA, 19-7 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Alexander Volkanosvki (July 2, 2022)
- Camp: Gracie Technics/Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Deceptively counters clinches
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition
+/- 0-3 against UFC-level southpaws
Arnold Allen (19-1 MMA, 10-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: TKO win over Calvin Kattar (Oct. 29, 2022)
- Camp: BKK Fighters (England)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Amateur boxing accolades
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Good footwork, educated guard
+ Heavy left hand
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defense and overall fundamentals
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid submissions and scrambles
Point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event on ESPN features a fantastic featherweight pairing between a volume-heavy Hawaiian and a savvy southpaw striker.
Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Max Holloway, who was already improving from fight to fight, turned a big corner in his career after his encounter with Cub Swanson.
Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attacks. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the former featherweight kingpin makes for a hard read on the feet.
When feeling in stride, the 31-year-old looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.
That all said, it is the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable.
Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway will not only build on his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game.
For example, against Ricardo Lamas, Holloway ate a healthy dose of leg kicks throughout their battle. However, in looking closer at the exchanges, you will see Holloway steadily get a read on the attacks – evading, checking and countering the kicks by the end of the contest.
Even in an early-career loss to Conor McGregor, Holloway still showed signs of his building nature, eventually mimicking the counters and the double-attack themes of his southpaw foe (something that the Hawaiian revisited later whenever the stance-switching Yair Rodriguez went southpaw on him).
#TheSouthpawReport for #UFCKansasCity:
• Max Holloway is 0-3 opposite UFC-level lefties (McGregor, Poirier x2)
Had issues with SP counters as well as a SP double attack from McGregor. Max tried to return the favor against Conor and brought back double attack dynamics vs. Yair: pic.twitter.com/FcIRLKt13Z
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 13, 2023
Nevertheless, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price.
Enter Arnold Allen.
Stepping onto the scene as a bit of a sporadic action fighter, Allen has steadily been composing his game and building on to his boxing base.
Allen has always had potent hooks and crosses off of the counter, but now it is not uncommon to see the Englishman control range and set up his offense with sharp jabs and active feet. When feeling in stride, Allen will target the body with impunity, as well as attack the legs on occasion.
In fact, Allen has been incorporating kicks a lot more in the latest stretch of his career. Whether Allen is counter-balancing his kicks with quick punches off the same side or using his punches to set up blind-siding head kicks (a la his training partner, Leon Edwards), the 29-year-old has really begun to blossom as a fully-fledged southpaw threat.
• Holloway faces dedicated southpaw Arnold Allen at #UFCKansasCity
Allen comes with a lot of classic southpaw counters in tow, and has been known to flash a southpaw double attack from time to time. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/WLPAA5lWrl
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 13, 2023
Allen also utilizes excellent lateral movement and footwork to stage his shots, but he’ll need to be mindful of playing too much on the outside considering that his Hawaiian foe comes to life anytime he can corral opposition in between the fence and inner-black octagon lines.
Point of interest: Potential adjustments
If this fight ends up as competitive as many of us imagine it will be, then do not be surprised to see either party attempt to get the jump on the other within the grappling realm in an effort to score points or secure rounds.
Holloway, who earned his Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt in recent years, has implemented more clinch offense that ranges from slicing elbows to opportunistic takedowns. And if Holloway ends up on top, the Hawaiian has almost a swarming style to his grappling game, as he primarily focuses on floating positions and landing punishing strikes.
Allen, however, has made measured improvements within the grappling realm since his promotional debut and is far from a pushover in this space.
Already strong in the clinch by nature, Allen has added some solid fundamentals to help strengthen his game over the years.
Urgent in the underhook department, seldom will you see Allen settle for negative positions without swimming for underhooks of his own as he attempts to shuck and spin his opposition around. Even when someone tries to attack his neck or back in transition, Allen has proven to be a solid scrambler who can safely find his way back to his feet.
In fact, both men do well with getting back to their feet, making me think that ground exchanges may be short and sweet no matter who is initiating the takedowns.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the former champion, listing Holloway -185 and Allen +150 as of this writing.
Despite not disagreeing with who the designated favorite is, I don’t blame anyone for taking a flier on the underdog in this spot.
Aside from the fact that Hollway has no-so-quietly accrued some hard miles in his 13-year career, the Hawaiian has traditionally struggled against dedicated southpaws (officially going 0-3 opposite UFC-level lefties).
Not only is Allen a talented southpaw striker, but the Englishman also carries a lot of the tools – from footwork to counters – that have troubled Holloway in the past.
That said, I still find myself siding with the veteran in this spot.
Allen’s southpaw stylings will likely be a handful to deal with early, but the Ipswich native has yet to fight five rounds in his career and, more importantly, has shown signs of flagging in the third round in past performances. Couple that with his propensity to play along the outskirts of the octagon, and Allen could find himself falling downhill fast if he’s not able to consistently keep control of both the exchanges and his pace.
Even though Holloway is approaching the point of his career where physical drop-offs can really start to rear their heads, I’ll side with the more proven product to survive the early storms and extend exchanges en route to pulling away down the stretch.
