MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ABC 5.
UFC on ABC 5 takes place Saturday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The main card airs on ABC following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-4
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 56-46-3
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, in which I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.com.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado …
Brendan Allen (-190) vs. Bruno Silva (+150)
Opening up the main card on ABC is a volatile middleweight matchup between Brendan Allen and Bruno Silva.
Although Allen winning by submission is a real possibility, I can’t help but think that this is a potential trap spot for the American favorite.
Aside from the fact that Allen was originally scheduled to face an entirely different stylistic challenge in Jack Hermansson, Silva poses certain threats that have traditionally troubled his counterpart on the feet.
This has all the feels of a gunfight, but I’ll take a flier on the underdog in Silva to land a flush check hook from southpaw for a first-round knockout.
David Onama (+195) vs. Gabriel Santos (-245)
Serving as a solid offering at 145 pounds is a bout between David Onama and [autotatg]Gabriel Santos[/autotag].
It’s hard not to root for a fighter like Onama given his situation, but I suspect that Santos might be a bad matchup for him.
Aside from Santos’ body attacks being live in this fight, I can’t help but notice Onama’s propensity to turtle out and give his back in scrambles.
Against a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt like Santos (whose specialty is rear-naked chokes), it could be a short night for the action-fighting Onama.
I’ll side with Santos to use his superior wrestling to cook Onama into submission by the second round.
Justin Tafa (-190) vs. Austen Lane (+150)
Death, taxes and the UFC matchmakers force-feeding us lower-level heavyweight affairs on Fight Night main cards.
Even though there are more than adequate offerings like Tatsuro Taira versus Kleydson Rodrigues that get relegated to the prelims, the UFC still can’t help but fetishize ‘big guys who used to play football’ despite Brendan Schaub still being the best example of a cross-over athlete in that department.
But I digress.
I’m sure that Austen Lane has continued to improve since his win on Dana White’s Contender Series, but I still haven’t seen much evidence of him having to strike with southpaws.
For that reason, I’ll side with the seasoned striker in Justin Tafa to eventually track Lane down and knock him out with a right hook by the second round.
Amanda Ribas (-210) vs. Maycee Barber (+170)
The co-main event in Jacksonville is a women’s flyweight fight between Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber.
Despite being a big fan of Ribas, I find myself siding with the underdog in Barber.
Although Barber still shows some troubling signs off of her back that could cost her here, it’s hard to ignore the stupid power that she packs in her strikes.
Couple Barber’s potential improvements with Ribas’ suspect chin, and I’ll take a shot on “The Future” to get back to her finishing ways with a second-round knockout.
Josh Emmett (+270) vs. Ilia Topuria (-355)
The main event on ABC features a fantastic pairing at featherweight between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, both fighters share similar weaknesses when it comes to dipping into left-sided strikes.
Each combatant also has a penchant for throwing hooks – which will likely lead to potent pocket exchanges.
Topuria has more ways to win this fight when you factor in his superior submission prowess, but I surprisingly find myself siding against one of my favorite fighters in this spot.
Even though Topuria has a higher ceiling, I’ll take a flier on the more powerful fighter in Emmett to come out on top of early striking stanzas with a shocking first-round knockout.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ABC 5.
