MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 242’s main event: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
UFC Fight Night 242 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Gilbert Burns UFC Fight Night 242 preview
Staple info:
- Record: (22-7 MMA, 15-7 UFC)
- Height: 5’10” Age: 38 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: KO loss to Jack Della Maddalena (March 9, 2024)
- Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (2nd degree)
+ 4x Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion
+ Multiple grappling accolades (in and out of the gi)
+ 6 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking flow
^ Dangerous counter right hand
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Works well from top or bottom
Sean Brady UFC Fight Night 242 preview
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Submission win over Kelvin Gastelum (Dec. 2, 2023)
- Camp: Renzo Gracie Philly/Marquez MMA (Philadelphia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 3 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Improved overall striking
^ Good countering sensibilities
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong in side the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Excellent positional grappling
^ Superb from topside or when riding cageside
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady point of interest: The cost of counters
The main event this Saturday features two fighters who are familiar with the cost of counters.
Aside from the looming takedown threat that Sean Brady brings to the table, the Philadelphia native has developed a taste for countering while striking on the feet.
Traditionally taking more of a backfoot approach, Brady appears to be okay with allowing his opponents to come to him.
Although Brady can work into the pocket behind his lead hand when he needs to, the Marquez MMA product prefers counter in combination (taking takedowns when available). Brady also has a solid left hook that’s effective both coming forward and off the counter, but can sometimes be countered himself when overthrowing his favored weapon.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady pressure a bit more in this fight given that it’s in the smaller octagon, he’ll just have to be on his best behavior against a potent pocket presence like Gilbert Burns.
An accomplished grappler who immersed himself in all facets of martial arts, Burns has steadily become a formidable threat on the feet.
Another fighter under the care of coach Hooft, we have seen “Durinho” build upon his pressuring sensibilities in the striking department. Whether he’s working off of his jab or his opponent’s, Burns always seems to have a heavy right hook chambered in the rear, as he typically looks to inch his way forward with offense that’s wired on a hair-trigger.
Against Demian Maia, Burns demonstrated improved defense with his head movement en route to slipping a punch and landing a slick left hook over the lead shoulder of his southpaw counterpart. Burns, who is a solid leg kicker in his own right, has also shown signs of improving his defensive awareness in regards to both checking and countering leg kicks thrown his way.
Nevertheless, checking jabs and counter-crosses have traditionally been the common culprit for Burns standing, so he, too, will need to respect the striking skills of his counterpart this Saturday.
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Considering where both Burns and Brady have traditionally been most dangerous from, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.
Although it should be obvious with his brick house build, Brady has made a reputation for himself as an insanely strong positional grappler who feels like a gorilla in closed quarters.
Wielding some serviceable takedown chops, Brady demonstrates a solid attack process, particularly when working from a bodylock. Whether Brady is manipulating a standing leg or is looking to hit shuck-bys toward the back, the Renzo Gracie representative chains his moves well when working along the fence, flowing from takedowns to positional rides like clockwork.
And once Brady establishes one of his favored positions, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is both patient and methodical when it comes to bottlenecking opposition into his preferred submissions. However, I’ll be curious to see how deep Brady is looking to take grappling exchanges given the skills of his current counterpart.
Burns, who is the more accoladed submission grappler on paper, will be one of the few fighters in the division who should be able to compete with Brady irrespective of any size or strength differences.
I say this all the time, but not all black belts are created equal, and Burns is a prime example of that. An IBJJF world champion both in and out of the gi, Burns was able to translate his brand of grappling quickly into the MMA space.
More importantly, Burns was not afraid to work with wrestling influences from standouts like Greg Jones to catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson. Integrating these crucial styles into his repertoire, there are now little-to-no positions that Burns is not comfortable or capable of working from.
Whether he is defending takedowns along the fence and striking off the breaks or hitting sweet trips and chaining takedowns of his own, Burns’ wrestling improvements remain to be one the things that quietly impresses me most. However, as underrated as that part of his game may be, taking down Brady could be difficult given his stout stature and solid scrambling abilities.
Even though I’m hoping to see some prolonged grappling exchanges between these two, I suspect that the interactions could be short and sweet (especially through the first half of the fight).
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening this fight as a pick’em, public money has come in on the American, listing Brady -186 and Burns +146 via FanDuel.
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady prediction, pick
Although I lined this fight closer to the opening odds, I’m not shocked to see MMA gamblers, once again, looking to fade the older fighter.
Burns has certainly accrued a lot of combat sports miles if you include his grappling experience and I wouldn’t push back on anyone who considers the former title challenger to be in the post-primes stages of his career. That said, I don’t think that the bottom has shown signs of dropping out just yet from this battle-tested Brazilian.
Aside from the fact that Burns has only lost to the best names in this division, the 38-year-old veteran has shown steady progress in everything from his fighting skills to his strength and conditioning in this latter stretch at 170 pounds.
If Brady is unable to neutralize Burns’ submission and scrambling prowess with his blanketing rides and wrestling, then I suspect we’ll be in for a tit-for-tat striking match between two grapplers. And if that’s the sort of fight get this weekend, then I have to slightly favor Burns.
Not only is Burns the more potent striker and proven product, but I see his counter right hand being particularly effective in this fight considering Brady’s past propensities of having his left hook countered. Add in the fact that Brady still seems hardwired to strike off the backfoot, and I suspect that the smaller octagon will be kinder to the Burns side of the equation given the kind of chaos it encourages.
I’m excited to see what kind of fight this brings out of Brady, but I can’t help but see Burns’ counters having a ton of play in this fight. The pick is Burns by knockout in Round 2.
Prediction: Burns inside the distance
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady start time, where to watch
As the main event, Burns and Brady are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:30 p.m. ET. The entire card streams live on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 242.
