MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 234.
UFC Fight Night 234 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1 MMA, 9-1-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: No contest with Johnny Walker (Oct. 21, 2023)
- Camp: Fight Club Akhmat (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ Grego-Roman wrestling champion of Dagestan
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate crosses and hooks
+ Hard left kicks
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Serviceable trips and takedowns
+ Good positional grappler
^ Heavy ground-and-pound
+/- 2-0 in the UFC APEX
Johnny Walker (21-7 MMA, 7-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 82″
- Last fight: No contest with Magomed Ankalaev (Oct. 21, 2023)
- Camp: SBG Ireland (Dublin, Ire.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 16 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 17 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile for size
+ Creative feints and footwork
+ Sporadic shot selection
^ Flying knees to spinning assaults
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Dangerous strikes, improved defense
+ Serviceable grappling ability
^ Solid strikes from topside
+/- 2-3-1 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- 1-2 in the UFC APEX
Point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event in Las Vegas features a rematch between two light heavyweights who are familiar with the southpaw stance.
Carrying a knack for countering, Magomed Ankalaev wields a lot of the offense that southpaws should never leave home without. Whether Ankalaev lands counter crosses to deceptive check-right hooks, the 30-year-old is decent at keeping his eyes open in exchanges.
Ankalaev also does well at using uppercuts and front kicks to check dips and level changes, which, in turn, score to the body.
Although Ankalaev seems to have a good beat on spinning attacks (likely to do the strong Wushu Sanda presence in Makhachkala), he’s shown susceptibility to leg kicks and kick counters in recent fights. Although Ankalaev has also shown instances of improved checks and kick defense throughout this same stretch, his legs will likely still be the target for Johnny Walker this time around.
An offensive marauder who towers over the majority of his peers, Walker brings a lot to the table if you’re a fan of explosive freakshows. Whether he’s parlaying spinning kicks into backfists or launching flying knees up the middle, Walker hits as hard as the liquor that his name is associated with.
Between the Brazilian wildman’s aggressive nature to the nomadic history of his training camps, there’s not a lot of process in Walker’s game to speak of. However, with the help of the John Kavanagh and the SBG Ireland crew, Walker has shown to embrace a more thoughtful and feint-heavy approach.
In Walker’s defense, he has been able to show more measured and process-based striking than before, but those improvements appear much more prevalent against orthodox-stance opposition.
Johnny Walker, who faces Magomed Ankalaev at #UFC294, is 2-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (W: Rountree, Cirkunov; L: Hill, Abreu, Prado)
Walker shows a lot of feints/flash in open-stance fights but seems uncomfortable/largely looks to play off rear leg attacks #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/d0p5rEAtmi
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 20, 2023
Even though Walker can comfortably attack from southpaw when facing orthodox opponents, he has traditionally shown discomfort when facing southpaws, heavily relying on rear-side attacks.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering the chaos that both of these two are prone to on the feet, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor this Saturday.
A Greco-Roman champion wrestler of Dagestan, Ankalaev appears to apply himself naturally in clinch space, which could come in handy this weekend. Whether Ankalaev is accompanying his underhooks with foot play for potential takedowns or striking with hard shots off the break, he doesn’t seem to be short on ideas in said space.
That said, Ankalaev can’t afford to get lackadaisical or underestimate Walker in closed quarters.
Although Walker is not beyond being taken down, he has worked hard on his counter-wrestling in order to complement his already dangerous clinch work.
Embracing the double-collar tie with a long and strong frame to boot, Walker effortlessly doles out knees and elbows from this position that can end a fight in an instant. And despite not seeing Walker as the one who will be hitting takedowns, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt can offer some serious strikes from topside.
Nevertheless, it’s still hard not to give an edge to Ankalaev in grappling exchanges.
Say what you will about Greco-Roman wrestling, but Ankalaev has some real strength and a genuine ability to stymie clinch action that can quietly wear on his counterparts. Ankalaev also seems to have some sambo and freestyle influence in his wrestling, subtly interplaying the legwork that is not allowed in the Greco style.
Even when put on his back, Ankalaev appears incredibly calm and comfortable while problem-solving, smartly favoring re-wrestling into single-leg variations in order to reverse fortunes. And once on top, Ankalaev is not afraid to go to pound town, as he clearly prefers position over submission.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are favoring the Russian fighter, listing Ankalaev -520 and Walker +350 as of this writing.
Although there isn’t a ton to take away from their first encounter last October, the betting market still seems bullish on Ankalaev as the favorite.
Despite not disagreeing with the Russian being favored to win, I warn anyone who is as confident in the betting spread listed above.
Aside from the fact that this is a fist fight between two huge athletes, Ankalaev quietly has offered questionable moments throughout his UFC tenure.
Whether we’re talking about Ankalaev’s last-minute lapses in focus opposite Paul Craig or waiting until Jan Blachowicz kicked out both of his legs before pressing his takedown advantage, the Dagestani doppelganger of Stipe Miocic has delivered some frustrating results for his fans.
Still, I can’t help but pick him to win here.
Aside from Walker’s traditional southpaw struggles that I highlighted in a previous section, I suspect that the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex will only encourage more grappling situations – which strongly favor Ankalaev on paper.
I won’t be rushing to the betting window for this fight, but I’ll pick Ankalaev to fight somewhat conservatively and look to cook Walker on the floor en route to a second-round stoppage via strikes.
Prediction: Ankalaev inside the distance
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 234.
