MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 233.
UFC Fight Night 233 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-4
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 119-83-6
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Junyong Park (-180) vs. Andre Muniz (+146)
Kicking off the main card in Las Vegas is a middleweight matchup between Junyong Park and Andre Muniz.
Although I’m a huge fan of Park, I can’t help but get the feeling that this is a classic “trap fight.”
The Iron Turtle dance pic.twitter.com/aME1brcfjW
— Wesley Colvin (@TruUKFan) July 16, 2023
Even though “The Iron Turtle” has all the momentum on his side, I suspect that the card shift to Las Vegas’ Apex favors Muniz.
Aside from travel being much easier on the Brazilian’s side of things, the smaller octagon of the Apex will also favor his submission stylings.
Park is favored for a reason and is definitely live late, but I’ll take a flier on the underdog in Muniz to upset the applecart with a first-round submission win.
Jamie Mullarkey (+160) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (-200)
Filling out the main card on ESPN+ is a lightweight fight between Jamie Mullarkey and Nasrat Haqparast.
Despite this fight looking like a shrunken version of Kelvin Gastelum vs. a young Ted Danson at first glance, I warn anyone overlooking this potential banger at 155 pounds.
Mullarkey may have a spotty record against UFC-level southpaws (currently standing at 1-1 if you don’t include his knockout loss to a stance-switching Muhammadjon Naimov), but the common culprit in those fights was the check right hook.
Although Haqparast is a hard-hitting southpaw who could certainly get the job done early, he seems to lack that particular punch from his arsenal. For that reason, I’ll take a flier on Mullarkey to bust up some parlays by scoring a surprising first-round stoppage.
Tim Elliott (-134) vs. Su Mudaerji (+110)
Originally slated to face Alan Nascimento at flyweight, Su Mudaerji will now meet short-notice replacement Tim Elliott in an impromptu bantamweight bout.
Although I tend to steer away from last-minute stand-ins who are installed as favorites, the stylistic dynamic of this matchup – as well as the reminders of recent results – has me siding with Elliott.
Despite Elliott quietly sitting at 2-5 opposite UFC-level southpaws, most of those losses came earlier in his career to superior wrestlers and submission artists.
I imagine Mudaerji is improving in those areas of his game, but his strengths clearly lie within the striking realm. Couple that with the chaos of the smaller cage, and I’ll side with the veteran in Elliott to snatch up a submission by the second round.
Anthony Smith (+168) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (-210)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features an impromptu light heavyweight affair between Anthony Smith and Khalil Rountree Jr..
Although Smith is taking this fight on short notice, it should be noted that Rountree was preparing for a completely different fighter in Azamat Murzakanov (who is a stout, southpaw counterstriker).
That said, I can see why Rountree is still favored this Saturday.
Aside from the fact that Smith is 1-2 opposite UFC-level lefties, check right hooks and leg kicks appear to be the common culprit for him against southpaws and stance-switchers alike.
However, if Rountree fails to find a finish early, he risks tying up with a dangerous submission threat in Smith.
It’s an incredibly tricky fight to call, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Rountree to force a stoppage by strikes in round 1.
Song Yadong (-385) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+290)
The main event on ESPN+ is a potential bantamweight banger between Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, Gutierrez is a fighter who doesn’t get enough credit for how good he is.
That said, I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to conduct exchanges in the smaller cage against an explosive counterpuncher like Yadong.
Unless Gutierrez can parlay his circling footwork with some crippling offense (like calf kicks), then I suspect that Yadong will have ample opportunities to track him down and force exchanges early.
Although I wouldn’t mind being wrong given my love for Gutierrez and his team, I’ll officially side with Yadong to score a second-round knockout.
