MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 229.
UFC Fight Night 229 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 98-73-5
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Bill Algeo (-105) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-115)
For as much crap as I give the UFC matchmakers for their card formatting in these columns, I have to also applaud them when they get it right.
This week, we get treated to another main-card opener at featherweight, which pits together Bill Algeo and Alexander Hernandez.
I expect Hernandez to have his usual strong start, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to get a durable fighter like Algeo out of there.
For that reason, I’ll side with the slow-burn swagger of Algeo to produce a stoppage win by round three.
Drew Dober (-500) vs. Ricky Glenn (+360)
Serving as a solid offering at lightweight is a showdown between veterans, Drew Dober and Ricky Glenn.
Although I initially came in leaning toward the obvious favorite, things became much less obvious after going back to watch the tape.
#UFCVegas80 has 1 southpaw vs. southpaw matchup between Ricky Glenn and Drew Dober
Glenn is 1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Tucker; L: Dunham), while Dober has an interesting history of 3-4 (W: Haqparast, McKinney, Gonzalez; L: Hein, Dariush, Islam, OAM) #TheSouthpawReport
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 6, 2023
Aside from Dober seeming to struggle slightly more with the stance pairing, Glenn continues to be an underrated violence machine who has made his career as an underdog.
Add in the fact that Glenn appears to be back at a high-level camp like Roufusport (where he’s had southpaw training partners that range from Anthony Pettis to Erik Koch), and I’m willing to ride with the deceptively younger man.
Both fighters’ legendary durability has recently been brought into question, but I’ll take a flier on Glenn to survive the first round and thrive in the violence that the small octagon encourages, forcing a stoppage on the floor by round three.
Alex Morono (+142) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-176)
Filling out the main card is a welterweight encounter between Alex Morono and Joaquin Buckley.
Despite my official pick, I’m a big fan of Morono and believe that he is a live underdog this Saturday.
The potential problem, however, is that I’m not so sure he matches up well with southpaws from a striking perspective.
Alex Morono, who faces Joaquin Buckley at #UFCVegas80, is 1-1 against UFC-level southpaws (W: Means; L: Nakamura)
Morono still showed some susceptibility to southpaw attacks (particularly to the body) years later against Means before snatching up a submission. #TheSouthpawReport https://t.co/s7k3UJIVlf
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 6, 2023
Unless he can make this fight ugly and catch his opponent with a submission in transition, then I suspect that Buckley will end up knocking him out.
I hope I’m wrong, but the pick is Buckley by first-round knockout.
Joe Pyfer (-470) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+340)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features potential fireworks between dangerous middleweights, Joe Pyfer and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
Despite the inflated odds and obvious promotional hype put on Pyfer, I can’t disagree with him being favored from a betting perspective.
Alhassan has made some solid efforts to control his pace and improve his cardio since moving shop to the Elevation Fight Team, but his game still appears limited enough for a fighter like Pyfer to work around him.
Aside from being a cleaner striker coming forward and off the counter, Pyfer is also an underrated wrestler and grappler who comes from a solid camp in Marquez MMA.
Although this fight looks like a one-round slugfest at first glance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pyfer smartly use the grappling that he’s clearly been sharpening up in between fights.
The pick is Pyfer by third-round submission.
Grant Dawson (-420) vs. Bobby Green (+310)
The main event at The Apex features a lightweight showcase between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, Green feels much livelier than what the betting spread above indicates.
Aside from being the more experienced fighter with the more proven gas tank, Green is also an underrated wrestler and scrambler in his own right.
Bobby Green loves looking for switches, as this exchange w/Koch shows how important hip position is when trying to leverage one..
Koch sees this as he tries to head him off at the pass, but Green smartly switches to a single and re-counters w/an Eduardo Telles-style turtle sweep pic.twitter.com/YVYtjEj695
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 24, 2022
That said, Green still has a bad habit of back exposure that will likely cost him rounds against a backpacker like Dawson – even if he’s able to extend him.
I also don’t like that Green’s durability and staying power doesn’t appear to be what it used to be, which has me leaning toward the potential improvements of Dawson.
Dawson may not have a lot to write home about on the feet, but he has shown improvements in all areas since moving shop to American Top Team.
If this fight were a couple of years ago, I’d probably take a flier on one of my favorite fighters as the underdog. However, given the potential crossroads and the conditions of the smaller octagon, I have to favor Dawson to get it done.
I’ll reluctantly pick Dawson to finish within three rounds, but don’t be shocked if Green is able to survive and make this a competitive contest down the stretch that has us arguing about effective striking versus effective grappling.
