MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 228.
UFC Fight Night 228 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-1-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 96-70-5
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Charles Jourdain (-144) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+118)
Kicking off the main card is a featherweight fight between Charles Jourdain and Ricardo Ramos that has action written all over it.
Despite public money trickling in on Jourdain, I find myself being drawn to the underdog in Ramos.
Jourdain’s volume and propensity to mix in body shots will likely pay real dividends on a fighter like Ramos, but I believe that the Brazilian’s wrestling and grappling edge is a factor that’s hard to overlook considering that this fight will be contested inside of the smaller octagon.
For that reason, I’ll take a flier on Ramos and his potential improvements to edge out the scorecards via superior grappling.
Bryan Battle (-188) vs. A.J. Fletcher (+152)
Filling out the main card is a welterweight encounter between Bryan Battle and A.J. Fletcher.
Despite not disagreeing with Battle being the odds-on favorite, I believe that this will be an ugly fight that ends up competitive regardless of the result.
For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Fletcher to capitalize on the chaos of the small cage by scoring a surprising club-and-sub by the second round.
Marina Rodriguez (-325) vs. Michelle Waterson Gomez (+250)
Serving as strawweight filler is a rematch that nobody asked for between Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson Gomez.
I’m not sure if the UFC’s relentless slew of cards is finally taking a toll on their matchmakers’ memory, but it’s hard to see why these two are being pitted together despite getting a fairly definitive result not too long ago.
Considering that my prediction for Rodriguez to win in round three almost came to fruition last time around, I’ll roll with the Brazilian again here.
Unless Waterson Gomez can steal two rounds via successful takedowns and backpacking, then Rodriguez’s muay Thai maelstrom should produce a finish by Round 3.
Bryce Mitchell (-210) vs. Dan Ige (+168)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features fireworks between ranked featherweights Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige.
My admitted bias toward Ige and his team aside, I have a hard time justifying Mitchell as a 2-1 favorite in this spot.
Don’t get me wrong: Mitchell is the more known grappling product and this fight will be taking place in the smaller cage, so anyone backing him here is well within their right.
I just believe that Ige is the more proven and prepared fighter who is not getting enough credit for the counter-grappling improvements he’s shown in recent fights.
Not only does Ige possess the power to put Mitchell away on the feet, but I also believe he can produce enough damage to edge out the scorecards if this goes the distance.
It’ll likely be another sweaty affair where we’re arguing about grappling control vs. striking moments, but I’ll side with the Hawaiian to take the judge’s scores out of the equation by scoring a knockout in Round 2.
Rafael Fiziev (-162) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+132)
The main event at The Apex features a battle between ranked lightweights, Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I suspect that this matchup favors the underdog from a stylistic perspective.
Aside from the fact that the smaller octagon often favors the superior submission grappler, I can’t ignore the fact that – outside of an aging Rafael dos Anjos who is reliant on the same takedown against the cage – we haven’t seen Fiziev have to meaningfully answer the scenarios that Gamrot will be attempting to enforce.
Sure, Fiziev may have been able to finish dos Anjos in the fifth round, but the native of Azerbaijan was surrendering takedowns and showing signs of flaggings prior to that point (as Fiziev’s stamina has been a reoccurring question throughout his MMA career).
I don’t know if it’s the fact that Fiziev has a more attractive style or that Gamrot should arguably be 0-3 in the last few outings, but I believe that the wrong man is favored given the stylistic evidence.
Although a competitive decision is the most likely result, I’ll take Gamrot to score a sneaky submission by the fourth round.
