MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 228.
UFC Fight Night 228 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Rafael Fiziev (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Justin Gaethje (March 18, 2023)
- Camp: Tiger Muay Thai/Kill Cliff FC (Thailand/Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple muay Thai accolades
+ National champion in combat sambo
+ National champion in hand-to-hand combat
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid footwork
+ Good head movement
^ Slips and rips/counters in combination
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid strikes and takedown defense
+ Serviceable submission grappling ability
Mateusz Gamrot (22-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jailin Turner (March 4, 2023)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ KSW lightweight and featherweight titles
+ Multiple grappling accolades
^ Polish and European ADCC champion
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Gets better as the fight wears on
+ Jabs well from both stances
^ Attaches accurate crosses when appropriate
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Favors chaining off of low singles
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Good scrambles and submissions
Point of interest: Striking in the small cage
The main event in Las Vegas features a lightweight showdown between Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot.
A stick-and-move stylist who likes to switch stances, Gamrot brings a lot of looks to the table.
Whether Gamrot’s operating out of southpaw or orthodox, the former KSW champion predicates a decent amount of his offense off of his jab. Typically utilizing it in a prodding nature, Gamrot will attach everything from pinpoint crosses to crushing calf kicks when appropriate.
In fact, Gamrot arguably does his best work when it comes to building off of his straight punches, particularly when disguising his southpaw crosses as cover fire for his patent low-single attacks. The Pole also has a solid sense for hand fighting that assists his efforts, but he’ll need to be mindful when reaching on a fighter like Fiziev.
Demonstrating superb countering instincts from multiple ranges, Fiziev has a knack for turning defense into offense. Whether he is slipping to the left or right, “Ataman” is good about returning hard hooks and kicks in combination.
Like many Russian and Eastern European kickboxers, Fiziev is very fluent off of his lead side, often punctuating the exchanges with either left hooks to the head or hard Thai kicks to the body. The 30-year-old will also sneak in quick inside leg kicks off of parries to further disrupt his opposition but is more than happy to sit back and hack at any limb that becomes available.
Like many muay Thai stylists, Fiziev shows solid sensibilities inside of the clinch, particularly when it comes to finding knees and elbows. Still, I’m not sure how offensively-minded Fiziev will be in these spaces given the takedowns that will likely be on Gamrot’s mind.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Given the stylistic crux of Gamrot’s game, winning the wrestling should be paramount for both fighters this Saturday.
A consistent takedown threat in the cage, Gamrot loves to work off of low-single shots. Usually shooting out of a southpaw stance, Gamrot is lightning fast when it comes to changing his level.
Needing just a shallow bite on his shot, Gamrot is good about quickly working up the leg to chain off to other attacks.
Whether he’s hiking up to a high crotch or changing off to double, “Gamer” earns his nickname with the amount of hustle he puts into his finishes. And if Gamrot is able to secure his foe on the floor, then the 32-year-old ADCC champion has some solid tricks up his sleeve.
An aggressive submission grappler, Gamrot is not afraid to get after it from any angle. Whether he’s randomly dropping for leg locks or aggressively trying to pass from topside, Gamrot is always looking for fight-ending positions.
Luckily for Fiziev, he also has a background in combat sambo that helps him in transitional wrestling phases.
Already strong from the clinch, Fiziev shows solid counter-grappling instincts in close. From competent whizzers and underhooks to a good sense for his hips, the eight-year pro has proven difficult to take down thus far in his UFC career.
Although Fiziev shows little interest in pursuing ground fights for prolonged periods of time, he doesn’t seem afraid to shake things up with a trip or takedown of his own. Fiziev is also good about scoring opportunistic strikes in transit, particularly when it comes to elbows off of the breaks.
Should Fiziev successfully stuff the takedown attempts of dos Anjos, then expect to see the native of Azerbaijan punish his Polish counterpart with strikes off the break. But if Gamrot is able to ground Fiziev and meaningfully make him work, then things could get interesting as the fight wears on.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the younger man, listing Fiziev -166 and Gamrot +130 via FanDuel.
Considering the deceptive nature of each fighter’s recent resume, I’m not surprised to see a close betting line with no meaningful movement to speak of. That said, I suspect that this matchup may favor the underdog from a stylistic perspective.
Fiziev presents the competent takedown defense and body kicks that have traditionally troubled Gamrot, but I’m not sure how Ataman will hold up under the pace that Gamer fights at.
Sure, Fiziev may have been able to stay afloat and finish Rafael dos Anjos in the fifth frame of his last five-round test, but Fiziev was looking to tire before cashing in on an opportunistic burst to start the final round.
Moreover, dos Anjos is a fighter who is clearly past his prime and works with a smaller takedown arsenal that is largely reliant on the fence.
Gamrot, on the other hand, will be chaining off of his attempts and taking advantage of any time Fiziev bites on his fakes. The Pole’s style is definitely not as criteria-friendly in spite of the scorecards he’s been gifted opposite Arman Tsarukyan and Jailin Turner, but Gamrot’s game can be a stylistic nightmare over five rounds if you can’t match him in the grappling department.
I suspect that Fiziev’s first-layer defense will hold up in the early going, but he could quickly find himself fighting an uphill battle if he’s not able to finish or significantly hurt Gamrot early.
Add in the fact that this fight will be taking place in the smaller octagon of The Apex, and I’ll side with the superior grappler in Gamrot to eventually break down Fiziev with his pace, pressure and chain wrestling down the stretch. Though winning on the cards is probably the most plausible path for the Pole, I have a sneaking suspicion that Gamrot scores a submission by the fourth round.
Prediction: Gamrot inside the distance
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 228.
