MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 224.
UFC Fight Night 224 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 65-52-4
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.com.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Lerone Murphy (-155) vs. Joshua Culibao (+122)
Kicking off the main card in London is a featherweight fight between Lerone Murphy and Joshua Culibao that has fireworks written all over it.
Despite Murphy impressing me and many others during his rise, I can’t help but notice that he seems to find himself in close contests when fighters are able to take his power. For that reason, I believe that Culibao’s blitzes and volume could make this a much closer affair than Murphy backers are comfortable with.
Even though part of me will be cheering for Culibao to score the upset, I’ll stick with the favorite in Murphy to squeeze out another decision via superior kicks and counters.
Fares Ziam (-164) vs. Jai Herbert (+134)
Filling out the main card is a lightweight mirror match between Fares Ziam and Jai Herbert.
Both men are tall, rangy kickboxers who have quietly been working on their wrestling game.
Ziam seems to prefer more traditional attacks like singles and doubles, while Herbert sticks to a mixture of slick trips and strikes from clinch space.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Ziam’s process and recent improvements are enough to allow him to roll here, but I’ll take a flier on the home-soil underdog in Herbert to sway the judges’ scorecards with the more impactful strikes and bigger moments in rounds.
Andre Muniz (-230) vs. Paul Craig (+184)
Filling the UFC’s main-card middleweight quota is a showdown between submission specialists, Andre Muniz and Paul Craig.
Despite my hopes to see a high-paced ground war, I suspect that a tepid striking affair is firmly in the cards for this Saturday.
Both men are better strikers than they give themselves credit for, but I believe that Muniz’s southpaw stylings could give him a slight edge standing.
🧵 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFCLondon:
• Paul Craig, who faces southpaw Andre Muniz, is officially 3-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Ankalaev, Nzechukwu, Hill; L: Rountree)
That said, Craig’s wins were largely submission comebacks as left-sided strikes were the common culprit. pic.twitter.com/hVj0ZQM7kd
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 21, 2023
Add in the potential unknowns of this being Craig’s first fight down at 185 pounds, and I find myself semi-reluctantly siding with Muniz to win by decision.
Andre Fili (+160) vs. Nathaniel Wood (-200)
Serving as a likely candidate for Fight of the Night is a featherweight meeting between Andre Fili and Nathaniel Wood.
Even though I initially came in with some optimism for Fili, I ended up going the other way after reviewing the tape.
Fili may be the bigger and more experienced featherweight, but I suspect that Wood’s well-rounded striking and underrated wrestling will provide some problems for the Team Alpha Male product.
I also see Wood’s speed being a big differentiator in exchanges early, so don’t be shocked to see the smaller man score a stoppage in this spot.
The fan in me will be rooting for Fili, but the analyst in me can’t help but see Wood fulfilling his own prophecy by scoring a second-round knockout with his patent left hook.
Molly McCann (-245) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+186)
The co-main event in The O2 arena features a women’s flyweight fight between Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko.
Although Stoliarenko successfully made the flyweight limit for the first time, I’m still not sold on what appears to be a limited game with narrow win conditions in tow.
Unless Stoliarenko can use her size to create an opportunity to hit her patent armbar early, then I suspect that McCann can put it on the Lithuanian with her high output and pace.
I’ll take McCann to survive some early submission scares en route to forcing a third-round stoppage due to strikes.
Tom Aspinall (-500) vs. Marcin Tybura (+340)
The main event in London features the return of Tom Aspinall, who takes on heavyweight staple, Marcin Tybura.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I’m always suspicious of heavyweight betting odds with north of 3-1 spreads.
That said, I can’t disagree with Aspinall being favored to roll.
Aside from the fact that Tybura traditionally struggles with athletic fighters who can counter-strike and wrestle, the Polish fighter also tends to give away first rounds (or, at the very least, fights his opponent’s fights).
If Aspinall has made a full recovery from his knee injury from last year, then he should be able to get the jump on Tybura in both the grappling and the striking department.
The pick is Aspinall by first-round kimura.
