MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 222.
UFC Fight Night 222 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Sergei Pavlovich (17-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 30 Weight: 255 lbs. Reach: 84″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Tai Tuivasa (Dec. 3, 2022)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Greco-Roman wrestling base
+ 14 KO victories
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Excellent boxing instincts
^ Works well off of jabs
+ Devastating right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Shows serviceable wrestling ability
– Struggles when put on his back
Curtis Blaydes (17-3 MMA, 12-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 260 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: TKO win over Tom Aspinall (July 23, 2022)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Colorado)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ NJCAA national heavyweight wrestling title
+ IKF national champ
+ 11 KO victories
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Improved striking and footwork
^ Shifts stances/moves well off strikes
+ Solid jab from both sides
^ Variates to body/follows up well
+ Explosive power-double takedown
^ Changes level well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Bodylocks, trips, suplexes
+ Solid top game
^ Floats, wrist-rides, strikes
Point of interest: Heavyweight hands
The main event in Las Vegas features a heavy-handed showdown between Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes.
Despite coming from a wrestling base, Blaydes is no stranger to kickboxing, showing solid fight-to-fight improvements each time out.
Blaydes moves well for a big man, demonstrating the ability to shift his stance to take angles that encourage corralling scenarios. Not losing sight of his fundamentals, Blaydes does a decent job of keeping his feet beneath him and moving his head off of strikes, smartly sprinkling in feints and hip fakes along the way.
Whether Blaydes is working behind his jab or rolling his head off of his crosses, his time spent training at the Elevation Fight Team has really come through in recent years. However, as we have seen in all of his losses, Blaydes is not beyond being countered for his engagements and will need to be on his best behavior here.
Enter Pavlovich.
Looking like a refrigerator with big fists attached, Pavlovich is certainly an imposing character who comes off bigger than his listed dimensions would lead you to believe.
Despite coming from a wrestling background, Pavlovich makes his money in the striking department.
Carrying solid boxing fundamentals that are often underutilized by big men, Pavlovich does a good job of keeping his feet beneath him while looking to come forward and punch.
Seldom out of position, Pavlovich keeps potent punching power at his disposal, even if he’s just throwing a jab. The 30-year-old Russian also does decently at feinting before getting his offense going, which will be a crucial key for his striking in this match.
I also wouldn’t mind seeing more kicks out of Pavlovich, but doubt he employs those techniques given that Blaydes has a knack for taking opponents down off of kicks.
Point of interest: Wrestler's wrath
Given Blaydes’ on-paper edge in the wrestling realm, I’ll be curious to see if the American looks to get back to his hallmark attacks.
A junior college wrestling champion, Blaydes carries a potent wrestling style that translates well to MMA – particularly at heavyweight.
Showing all the signs of an aggressive grappler since his days on the collegiate wrestling mat, Blaydes has always appeared to have a direct approach toward closed-quarter combat. Whether he is re-wrestling for underhooks, looking for mat returns, or implementing his patented blast-double takedown, Blaydes can execute offense like second nature (even when under heavy fire).
That said, I’ll be curious to see what kind of resistance the American encounters.
Coming from a Greco-Roman wrestling base, Pavlovich should at least be a decent force to reckon with in the clinch. There’s not a ton of wrestling in Pavlovich’s sample sizes, but I did go back to watch more of the Russian on the regional scene.
Despite his Greco background, Pavlovich seems to prefer level-changing shots when he does decide to go for takedowns. He displays decent defense for the few shots out in the open he’s had to defend, and shows a solid awareness for grips inside of the clinch.
However, if Pavlovich does end up underneath a fighter like Blaydes, then he’ll need to be more urgent to improve his position than he did against Alistair Overeem (who made him like a turtle turned upside down).
Blaydes, like many wrestlers, does not play for your typical jiu-jitsu positions in hopes of finding a submission, as he’d seemingly rather dismantle opposition through punishing rides that see the Chicago native unleash strikes off smart wrist-feeds and controls. And whenever Blaydes gets his opponent’s back flat, hellacious, skull-splitting elbows aren’t usually far behind.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American, listing Blaydes -165 and Pavlovich +140.
Given the volatility of heavyweight fights in MMA, I’m glad to see this line getting tighter as opposed to wider.
Pavlovich is an incredibly dangerous puncher, both coming forward and off the counter, as the latter has been a troublesome common thread in Blaydes’ defeats. If Blaydes stands for too long or makes his takedown attempts too deliberate, then don’t be surprised to see the American on the wrong side of another uppercut.
That said, I have a hard time backing the underdog in this spot given the lack of wrestling samples on the Pavlovich side.
There aren’t many legit wrestling tests in this division, but Blaydes is sure as hell one of them. So, in the spirit of sticking with proven products, I’ll stick with the same logic I had with my Overeem prediction by picking Blaydes to press his advantages in order to find a finish on the floor by round three.
