MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 298.
UFC 298 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif.
Last event’s results: 2-4
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 9-11-1
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Anthony Hernandez (-250) vs. Roman Kopylov (+198)
Kicking off the paid portion of the card is a middleweight matchup between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Kopylov.
Despite not disagreeing with Hernadez being installed as the betting favorite, I have a sneaky suspicion that the southpaw Kopylov is a live dog in this spot.
Aside from the fact that Hernandez officially stands at 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties, the California native has shown a propensity to be stung by body shots in both victory and defeat.
Add in the fact that he’s arguably facing the best bodyworker at 185 pounds, and I can’t help but take a flier on Kopylov and his recent wrestling improvements to get it done for him here.
The pick is Kopylov by knockout in round 2.
Merab Dvalishvili (-235) vs. Henry Cejudo (+186)
Filling out the main card is an important fight at bantamweight between Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Cejudo.
Even though Cejudo initially opened as the betting favorite, money has come pouring in on the rightful no. 1 contender, Davalishvili.
Cejudo may be the superior fighter on paper, but I don’t disagree with the line movement stated above.
Until they allow you to bring firearms into the octagon, I’m not sure I can bet on anyone stopping or out-working Dvalishvili for the time being.
The pick is Dvalishvili by unanimous decision.
Geoff Neal (+194) vs. Ian Garry (-245)
In a fight that should be more competitive than the odds let on, Geoff Neal will finally do battle with Ian Garry.
Although I can understand the temptation to take a shot at Neal in this spot, I still find myself leaning toward the favorite.
Say what you will about Garry, but the 26-year-old appears to be a very skilled and well-prepared fighter. And despite Neal being his most dangerous test to date, the Fortis MMA product hasn’t exactly been the hardest to gameplan for given both his headhunting and left-sided sensibilities.
I definitely wouldn’t mind being wrong here, but the pick is Garry by unanimous decision.
Robert Whittaker (-250) vs. Paulo Costa (+198)
The co-main event for UFC 298 features a middleweight showdown between Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, these two have been on a collision course for quite some time now.
Although I can understand anyone who is questioning Whittaker’s staying power at this point in his career, I believe that his shot selections of straight punches and checking hooks will serve him well considering Costa’s history with those punches.
I’ll pick Whittaker to finally get back to his finishing ways but finding a stoppage late in round 3.
Alexander Volkanovski (-122) vs. Ilia Topuria (+100)
The main event in Anaheim features a fantastic featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this fight gives me the same vibes that UFC 231’s main attraction between Max Holloway and Brian Ortega did.
Holloway, who was at the peak of his reign, was being doubted by the public due to health struggles that stemmed in and out of the cage. However, come fight night, the then-Hawaiian champion would go on to have the performance of a lifetime.
Now, I’m not sure if Volkanovski can replicate anything to that level, but I do suspect that the Macedonian champion reminds us of his wrestling abilities this Saturday.
I also suspect that Volkanovski’s educated lead hand and kicking game will also be crucial given Topuria’s wrestle-boxing propensities, but trading with the Georgian is no joke.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Topuria stun the champion early for an upset, but I’ll take the better adjuster in Volkanovski to retain via unanimous decision.
