MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 298.
UFC 298 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif.
Robert Whittaker (24-7 MMA, 15-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: ’06” Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: “73.5”
- Last fight: TKO loss to Dricus Du Plessis (July 8, 2023)
- Camp: Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Smeaton Grange (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Hapkido and karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Australian National Wrestling Championships gold medal
+ 10 knockout victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and distance management
^ Quick blitzes and deceptive tempo changes
+ Accurate jabs and hooks
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Improved overall grappling
Paulo Costa (14-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Luke Rockhold (Aug. 20, 2022)
- Camp: Team Borrachinha (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ “TUF: Brazil 3” alum
+ Jungle Fight middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Imposing pressure
^ Feints, stalks, corrals
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Variates rhythm, looks and levels
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Shows wrestling fundamentals
+ Works well from topside
^ Rides, transitions, strikes
Point of interest: Collision course
The co-main event for UFC 298 futures a matchup between two top-ranked middleweights who have quietly been on a collision course for some time now.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Robert Whittaker has developed into one of the most unique striking stylists at 185 pounds.
Using a combination of speed, accuracy and a fluid economy of movement, the Australian will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many karate-based strikers, Whittaker will feint or show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1382169527027261440
As we’ve seen in multiple fights, Whittaker often will assert himself through rear-legged front kicks that he uses to launch himself into variations of left hooks and shifting overhand shots. The champ also has no issue when it comes to sticking to his fundamentals, building offense off of deceptive jabs and feints.
https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1397627348489424896
That said, Whittaker is not beyond being taxed for his sometimes low-handed approach and will need to be on his best behavior opposite a fighter like Paulo Costa.
An imposing competitor by nature, Costa traditionally likes to pressure his prey toward the fence.
Whether Costa is baiting opponents with feints into crushing hooks and body kicks, or crashing the distance to intercept his opposition with a devastating cross, the Brazilian seems to be genuinely comfortable inside of exchanges.
Even when caught clean, Costa will no-sell his opponent’s shots as he returns fire right back in their face, but with an adjusted and varied rhythm. For me, it is an impressive feat to see a young fighter who otherwise seems like a bully using subtle tactics like rhythm and level changes to avoid predictability with strikes.
Paulo Costa’s kick technique is underrated pic.twitter.com/vGoaDsDkVW
— Top MMA Content (@TopMMAContent) February 15, 2024
Costa’s shot selection is also useful when it comes to corralling his opposition in between the cage and inner-black octagon lines – a place where his power comes to life.
Paulo 'Borrachinha' Costa is the real deal. He just walked through Johny Hendricks. Great performance and a prospect to watch. #UFC217 pic.twitter.com/qBWFDb66ds
— Ahmar Khan (@AhmarSKhan) November 5, 2017
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering that “Borrachinha” initially came from a base in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, I will be curious to see if he looks to surprise the former champion by revisiting his roots.
During his brief stint on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3,” we saw a very green version of Costa using cage pressure and takedowns to seal the deal on fighters before running out of gas and losing a split-decision (exhibition bout) to Marcio Alexandre on the show. Although the latest iteration of Costa has moved heavily toward the striking realm, I have to imagine that the Mineiro champion of jiu-jitsu’s ground game is still firmly intact.
When competing under the Jungle Fight banner, Costa demonstrated an ability to transition and ride while striking, appearing to maintain a good sense of positional IQ and awareness. But if the Brazilian does intend on taking Whittaker down, then Costa will need to come correct with his setups and executions.
Aside from the fact that Whittaker’s footwork makes it difficult for his opponents to set up their shots, the Australian also shows the small technical intricacies that make him hard to ground or hold down when grasped.
For example, while most fighters are reliant on more traditional defenses such as sprawls or battles for under-hooks, they typically end up losing out to superior grapplers since these defensive tactics involve a commitment to contact (which in turn begets more grappling).
Whereas Whittaker, though capable of using those defenses, does not rely on them. Instead, “The Reaper” prefers to head off takedown attempts at the pass.
Already possessing a strong base and balance, Whittaker’s hip and grip awareness also have improved through the years.
Not only does Whittaker utilize grip breaks and wrist controls, but the 33-year-old is also disciplined about consistently circling out to his opponent’s weak side, which helps dissuade re-shots and takedown chain adjustments from his foes. Even Romero had difficulty grasping or chaining off his initial attempts due to Whittaker’s persistence to fight hands.
What is even more impressive is Whittaker’s ability to go from thwarting takedown attempts to striking off the breaks, something that will also likely keep Costa honest in exchanges with him.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the former champ, listing Whittaker -265 and Costa +200 via FanDuel.
Although I’m not shocked to see Whittaker favored in this spot, I warn anyone who is discounting Costa as an underdog.
Sure, Costa’s fight weeks tend to come with a circus of circumstances, but that doesn’t change the fact that “Borrachinha” is a dangerous fighter with solid finishing instincts. Despite Whittaker being a top-shelf talent who I’ve yet to officially pick against, he’s demonstrated that he, too, is not beyond being taxed by checking punches and counters.
In fact, akin to the main event, both men here essentially share similar stylistic weaknesses – except one man has a more educated lead hand. And in this case, that man is, of course, Whittaker.
As we’ve seen in Costa’s last three fights, straight shots – regardless of stance – have been incredibly effective against the Brazilian fighter.
I can understand why Whittaker’s staying power is being brought into question, but I believe that this matchup – win or lose – will bring out the best in the former champion from a stylistic perspective. Even though a decision is the most probable way Whittaker gets it done on paper, I’ll side with “The Reaper” to get back to his finishing ways by finding either a left hook or head kick by Round 3.
