MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 296.
UFC 296 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.
Alexandre Pantoja (26-5 MMA, 10-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 33 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Decision win over Brandon Moreno (July 8, 2023)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Counters well in combination
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Solid clinch fighter
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Slick submissions, good ground-and-pound
+/- 3-1 against UFC-level southpaw
+/- 2-0 in career rematches
Brandon Royval (15-6 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Matheus Nicolau (April 15, 2023)
- Camp: Factory-X Muay Thai (Denver)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ LFA flyweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 4 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Diverse shot selection
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Active and urgent scrambler
^ Good granby rolls
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Opportunistic submission threat
+/- 2-0 in career rematches
Point of interest: Striking the second time around
The co-main event for UFC 296 features a rematch between Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval for the flyweight title.
Although Pantoja and Royval’s first fight ended up being decided on the floor, there was an interesting dynamic that was playing out on the feet prior.
Royval, who is more of a free-flowing stylist, was taking the striking initiative through his dynamic southpaw offerings.
Akin to many Factory-X fighters, Royval utilizes some crafty feints and footwork that helps both setup and pull out offense. Once he gets a beat to his liking, Royval is quick to respond with solid combinations and dangerous kicks and knees in tow.
When he’s feeling in stride, Royval will incorporate slick spinning assaults either coming forward or off the counter. That said, the 31-year-old standout is not beyond being countered for his aggression – something that Pantoja was able to capitalize on last time out.
But considering the success that Pantoja found on the floor, I’ll be curious to see if he gets back to his pressuring ways for this bout.
As his nickname “The Cannibal” would suggest, Pantoja is an offensive marauder who isn’t afraid to shed blood in order to feed himself.
An inherent pressure fighter, Pantoja is typically at his best when coming forward and looking to corrall opposition toward the cage. Although Pantoja’s technique and defense can leave much to be desired, the Brazilian bruiser can flow through offensive phases like second nature.
Demonstrating excellent instincts in the clinch, Pantoja has a good feel for body knees and strikes off the break. And, as we saw in their first fight, Pantoja is also a deceptively savvy counterstriker who always keeps a walloping right hand at the ready.
Point of interest: Scrambles win fights
Considering where Pantoja has previously found success in this series, no one should be shocked if the Brazilian challenger elects to engage in grappling exchanges.
Forgot how good the legwork was between Pantoja and Royval throughout the initial minutes of the 1st round… the leg lock attempt/entanglement from Royval is fun, but man do I appreciate what Pantoja is trying to do prior with influential insteps and vines as he goes for the back pic.twitter.com/yNnwqvBPtc
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) January 13, 2022
Despite not officially working on his wrestling until teaming up with Henry Cejudo post-“TUF,” Pantoja has always been a dangerous threat from bodylock positions.
Parlaying off of his previously mentioned clinch striking, Pantoja is quick to lock his hand around his opposition and shuck them off to a side whenever possible.
Displaying good cage awareness, Pantoja wastes little time when it comes to wedging himself in between the fence and the back of his opposition. And once Pantoja is able to get the slightest bite on a position, the Shooto Brazil vet will jump at the opportunity to shift the fight’s dynamic.
Royval is far from a slouch on the floor, but I’ll be curious how he approaches the grappling this time around.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his own right, Royval is an opportunistic submission threat who isn’t afraid to play in the proverbial dirt.
Whether he’s operating off his back or seeking out fight-ending submissions in scrambles, Royval is constantly looking to capitalize in the chaos. That said, Royval does have the propensity to allow for back exposure in said scrambles given his love for tactics like granby rolls.
And as we saw in their first encounter, Pantoja doesn’t need much to get going in that department.
Even though the grappling exchanges in this series haven’t been prolonged, there’s no denying the distinct edge that Pantoja holds over most competitors in his class.
In victory or defeat, seldom will you see anyone get to Pantoja’s back or put him in precarious submission threats. In fact, the 15-year pro has a knack for turning negative positions around through his superb scrambling ability.
Pantoja is a demon of a scrambler, at his best he's up there with guys like Benavidez.
Always fighting grips, never allows himself to be flat on the floor, conscious of what openings his decision are creating and he addresses them proactively. pic.twitter.com/bv3Cktphfh— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) July 5, 2023
Pantoja, who has incredible transitional instincts and chair sits, should also have an edge when it comes to finding the back. And if Pantoja ends up on top, the American Top Team rep has some fantastic ground striking that’s not talked about enough.
Like a snake striking its prey on the nature channel, Pantoja possesses incredible accuracy and pop to the punches that slightly arc around his opponent’s guard.
Alexandre Pantoja ground-and-pound 🤌 pic.twitter.com/2zBacuyt9I
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 5, 2023
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Pantoja -194 and Royval +156 via FanDuel.
Considering the complete disrespect Pantoja has received from the betting public in the past, it’s nice to see the Brazilian warhorse getting some much-deserved love as the favorite.
Still, I don’t blame anyone for feeling like the underdog is lively in this spot.
Not only does Royval come from an excellent camp in Factory-X Muay Thai, but the 11-year pro also offers a pace that could be problematic down the stretch. Royval has also hinted at fighting smarter and extending the fight, so don’t be shocked if we see some changes in the challenger’s approach.
Nevertheless, I still find myself siding with the champion.
Aside from the fact that the stylistic dynamic has largely remained the same, I believe that Pantoja has proven that his durability and staying power are good for five rounds if need be. Whereas Royval, who is long and large for this division, appears to sacrifice some durability down at the flyweight limit (as we often see with long and lanky fighters who cut down to 125 or 135 pounds).
For that reason, I can’t help but suspect that Pantoja will be the more durable and dangerous threat throughout this contest. I’ll officially side with Pantoja to force a stoppage via strikes by round 3.
Prediction: Pantoja inside the distance
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.
