MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 294.
UFC 294 takes place Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view at a special time of 2 p.m. ET following prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 104-77-5
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, in which I’ll give brief fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis, check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
Without further ado …
Said Nurmagomedov (-1230) vs. Muin Gafurov (+180)
Kicking off the main card is a potential bantamweight banger between Said Nurmagomedov and Muin Gafurov.
Despite wanting to pick Gafurov to turn this into a competitive dogfight, I can’t quite bring myself to the underdog side of this equation.
Gafurov likely will have a beat on a lot of Nurmagomedov’s big attacks given his own spinning sensibilities, but I suspect the Russian fighter’s knees will be particularly potent in this stylistic pairing.
I’ll officially side with Nurmagomedov to lock up another opportunistic guillotine choke after stunning Gafurov standing in the second round.
Ikram Aliskerov (-600) vs. Warlley Alves (+420)
Despite the prelims being filled with fantastic matchups like Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry, the powers that be decided to put an impromptu middleweight matchup between Ikram Aliskerov and Warlley Alves on the paid portion of the card.
Stepping in on short notice for Nassourdine Imavov, Alves, who normally competes at welterweight, will be moving up to 185 pounds for the first time since his stint on “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” almost a decade ago.
Even though Alves’ body kicks and heavy hooks will be live early, I’m not sure how much gas the Brazilian will have in his tank given the lack of prep time.
For that reason, I’ll take Aliskerov to survive the early storm in order to secure a second-round submission.
Magomed Ankalaev (-355) vs. Johnny Walker (+270)
Filling out the main card is a light-heavyweight encounter between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker.
Despite initially looking to get involved with the underdog side of the equation after remembering how sketchy Ankalaev fights can get, I was brought back down to earth after re-watching some footage on Walker.
Johnny Walker’s southpaw report:
Johnny Walker, who faces Magomed Ankalaev at #UFC294, is 2-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (W: Rountree, Cirkunov; L: Hill, Abreu, Prado)
Walker shows a lot of feints/flash in open-stance fights but seems uncomfortable/largely looks to play off rear leg attacks #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/d0p5rEAtmi
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 20, 2023
Although Walker’s ability to fight at range with kicks has improved since working with SBG Ireland, his defense and comfort when facing a southpaw stance still leaves a lot to be desired.
A Walker upset via knockout or submission is always on the table given his absurd athleticism and opportunistic sensibilities, but I can’t help but side with Ankalaev’s southpaw arsenal and superior wrestling.
I’ll pick Ankalaev to remind the masses about his ground-and-pound by scoring a somewhat surprising first-round stoppage via strikes.
Khamzat Chimaev (-290) vs. Kamaru Usman (+225)
The co-main event in Abu Dhabi features a short-notice showdown at middleweight between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman.
Like I said in my in-depth breakdown, if Usman was given a full fight camp to prepare for Chimaev, then I’d probably pick the former welterweight champion outright.
However, with only 11 days’ notice for travel and preparation, it becomes incredibly difficult to back Usman in this spot.
Even if Usman is healthy enough to thwart Chimaev’s submission grappling with his superior wrestling, I’m not sure how much shelter there will be for “The Nigerian Nightmare” on the feet.
Chimaev’s lack of head movement eventually will cost him if he doesn’t correct his defense soon, but “Borz” packs a devastating uppercut that has Usman’s name written all over it – especially when looking into the history he has with that punch.
For that reason, I’ll side with Chimaev to win by first-round knockout.
Islam Makhachev (-260) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+205)
Continuing with the theme of impromptu fights, UFC 294’s main event features a short-notice rematch between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski for the lightweight title.
In my in-depth breakdown, I said I was surprised the betting lines actually are shorter between these two despite the lack of preparation for the party who lost the first fight.
Even though I forecasted a competitive fight the first time around, that prediction was based on Volkanovski’s ability to keep pace under harsh conditions.
Alexander Volkanovski counter grappling:
During takedown scrambles off rear-waist cinch, Volk attempted to use grapevines or butterflies to disrupt/create the space needed in order to assist switch mechanics (similar mechanics that Sakuraba/Diaz bros use for kimura’s or these ex. attached of MMA wrestlers below) #UFC294 https://t.co/vj219iPgay pic.twitter.com/3vLsfMrMff
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 19, 2023
But without the proper time to get into fight shape, it would seem Volkanovski only has narrowed the margins for his win conditions, something the featherweight kingpin has admitted to himself by saying he has to “get it done early.”
Alexander Volkanovski’s southpaw report:
#TheSouthpawReport for #UFC294:
Alex Volkanovski, who is now 1-1 against UFC-level lefties, takes another crack at Makhachev…
Volk used his patent 2 (body)-3’s and step shifts to land 3-2’s down potent SP v. SP lanes before Mak picked up on SP counters, kicks and clinch knees: https://t.co/O7CsFuFJoG pic.twitter.com/c038SAf1A8
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 19, 2023
I hate picking against one of my favorite fighters in Volkanovski, but it’s hard not to see Makhachev surviving some early scares in order to pull away down the stretch.
The pick is for Makhachev to force a stoppage on the floor by the end of the fourth round.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 294.
