MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 294.
UFC 294 takes place Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view at a special time of 2 p.m. ET following prelims on ESPN+.
Islam Makhachev (24-1 MMA, 13-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Alexander Volkanovski (Feb. 11, 2023)
- Camp: Eagles MMA/American Kickboxing Academy (Dubai)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/Kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC lightweight champion
+ Combat sambo world champion
+ 4x Russian sambo champion
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ 4 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking
^ Solid variance in shot selection
+ Hard kicks from the left side
+ Underrated knees
+ Good takedown ability
^ Favors chaining off singles
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Excellent trips, knees and tosses
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Wrist control, rides, passes
+/- 0-0 in career rematches
Alexander Volkanovksi (26-2 MMA, 13-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Yair Rodriguez (July 8, 2023)
- Camp: Freestyle MMA (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent feints and footwork
+ Accurate shot selection and counters
^ Hard hooks and leg kicks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Good top game
+/- 5-1 at lightweight
+/- 1-1 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- Fighting on 11 days notice
Point of interest: Striking the second time around
The main event for UFC 284 features an impromptu rematch between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski.
Makhachev, who was initially slated for a rematch with Charles Oliveira, will instead run things back with Volkanovski after “Do Bronx” was forced to withdraw after sustaining a nasty cut in sparring.
Not only does Volkanovski differ from Oliveira in both style and stature, but the current featherweight kingpin also offers some interesting looks in regard to his approach against southpaws.
#TheSouthpawReport for #UFC294:
Alex Volkanovski, who is now 1-1 against UFC-level lefties, takes another crack at Makhachev…
Volk used his patent 2 (body)-3’s and step shifts to land 3-2’s down potent SP v. SP lanes before Mak picked up on SP counters, kicks and clinch knees: https://t.co/O7CsFuFJoG pic.twitter.com/c038SAf1A8
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 19, 2023
In their first encounter back at UFC 284, Volkanovski utilized crosses to the body followed by hooks to the head in the open stance (which is a combo that’s served him well against taller opposition like Brian Ortega and Max Holloway).
Although Volkanovski was not able to get a bite on Makhachev’s lead hand due to the Dagestani’s active counters and awareness of wrist controls, the Australian fighter was able to find success early on by shifting to southpaw in order to open up potent lanes for his left hand.
As I always point out in my analysis of southpaw vs. southpaw pairings, striking lanes for left crosses and right hooks tend to become particularly potent given that most southpaws predicate their games and range sensibilities to orthodox opponents.
That said, Makhachev was able to steadily get a beat on Volkanovksi’s entries and began to tax the challenger with classic southpaw kicks and counters. Makhachev also did a good job of smothering Volkanovksi’s advances via clinch knees – something that Volkanovski and his team will need to address this time around.
There’s not much Volkanovski can do about his shorter stature, but his last fight with Yair Rodriguez displayed an option inside of the pocket that I suggested to watch out for in their first meeting.
In his next fight against a stance-switching Yair Rodriguez, Volkanovski looked to match Rodriguez anytime he went southpaw by almost drop/jump shifting TKD style to shut down body kick lanes and land lead hooks. Volk finished by shifting to southpaw to land a check hook #UFC290 pic.twitter.com/udCs9fvKAo
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 19, 2023
Aside from the fact that a similar shot is responsible for Makhachev’s lone knockout loss, the check right hook can be just as effective against a southpaw as it is for one.
And if Volkanovski can clinch on his own terms, then he’s shown that he can make hay with some slick, stance-de-basing leg play.
Alexander Volkanovski keeps the theme of attacking off of base disruptions alive inside of the clinch, which allows him to get some solid shots off opposite Islam Makhachev at #UFC284 https://t.co/0q3XBGXode pic.twitter.com/MNLEEZvTBI
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 19, 2023
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering where their first fight was arguably won and lost, winning the wrestling will, once again, be a crucial crossroads for both parties this weekend.
Makhachev, who scores a large part of his takedowns by chaining attacks in clinch space, was able to hit some well-timed shots against Volkanovski back at UFC 284. And whenever Makhachev could get Volkanovski against the cage and break up one of his points of contact along the fence, the lightweight champion was able to secure some crucial riding positions.
During takedown scrambles off rear-waist cinch, Volk attempted to use grapevines or butterflies to disrupt/create the space needed in order to assist switch mechanics (similar mechanics that Sakuraba/Diaz bros use for kimura’s or these ex. attached of MMA wrestlers below) #UFC294 https://t.co/vj219iPgay pic.twitter.com/3vLsfMrMff
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 19, 2023
However, Volkanovski (as he tends to) was able to find tactical adjustments to Makhachev’s takedowns as the rounds wore on.
Whenever attacked from a rear-waist cinch variation, Volkanovski attempted to disrupt the takedown action by either grape-vining or butterflying Makhachev’s near-side leg for scrambling leverage. This allowed Volkanovski to float through some precarious positions which, in turn, gave the featherweight champion a fighting chance against the bigger wrestler.
Nevertheless, Volkanovski still officially clocked in at 0-4 in takedown attempts, scoring his lone stretch of top-time from a knockdown that came late in Round 5.
I’m not sure how eager Volkanovski is to grapple given the short-notice nature of this rematch, so expect the challenger to avoid Makhachev’s grasps at all costs.
As I always say, WRIST CONTROL is the unsung hero in all martial arts and Islam Makhachev is a great example to look to in MMA
Post disruptions, wrist-feeds to trips, defensive grip separations that opens up knees, cross-wrist rides for strikes & wrist pins for submission setups pic.twitter.com/LQ1nE4981q
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are once again favoring the sitting champion, listing Makhachev -280 and Volkanovski +210 via FanDuel.
Considering that Volkanovski is taking this fight on 11 days’ notice, I’m honestly surprised that the betting lines are technically shorter this time around.
I know that their first fight was more competitive than many expected, but Makhachev still fairly clearly won the decision. Perhaps the promotional hype of this matchup has poisoned the prognostication abilities of the Gen Pop to the pundits alike, but I just can’t ignore the elephant in the room, which is the short-notice nature of this fight.
Aside from the fact that “fight shape” is different from “being in shape,” Volkanovski is coming off of a surgical operation on his left arm and looks to have been nursing some stitches above his left eye in recent weeks.
With that in mind, I’m not exactly certain how much Volkanovski has been able to train. Add in all the extra travel and media that the Australian native has had to jump into, and it becomes even harder for me to back Volkanovski in this spot.
As I stated in my breakdown ahead of their first fight, Volkanovksi should be able to stay competitive with Makhachev in grappling scenarios due to his ability to scramble and fight at a high pace. But without the proper stamina preparations of a full fight camp, Volkanovksi knows that he’ll have to try and get it done early this Saturday.
Between being a big fan of Volkanovski and finding Makhachev’s fanbase insufferable, part of me will be definitely hoping for the featherweight king to pull off an incredible upset. That said, as an analyst who is being real about the situation at hand, I have to pick Makhachev to survive early scares in order to pull away down the stretch and force a stoppage in the later rounds.
