MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 292.
UFC 292 takes place Saturday at TD Garden in Boston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Aljamain Sterling (23-3 MMA, 15-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 34 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Decision win over Henry Cejudo (May 6, 2023)
- Camp: Serra-Longo Fight Team (New York)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 2x All-American wrestler
+ 3 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Tricky feints and footwork
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Improved boxing
+ Dynamic kicking attacks
^ Functional from both sides
+ Diverse takedown ability
^ Chains trips, singles and double-legs
+ Crafty transitional grappler
^ Superb back-taking ability
Sean O'Malley (16-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 28 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Petr Yan (Oct. 22, 2022)
- Camp: MMA LAB (Arizona)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ Amateur boxing and kickboxing experience
+ 11 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Creative striking flow and feints
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Shows improved offensive wrestling
+ Serviceable scrambling and grappling
+ Active and attacking guard
Point of interest: Striking with 'The Sugar Show'
The main event in Boston features a fun bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley.
Despite not being a traditionally trained striker, Sterling has made some undeniable strides in his striking game throughout his UFC tenure.
With his funk style of wrestling initially following him into his striking endeavors, Sterling busted out of the gates as an awkward stick-and-move stylist. But after a few years of valuable lessons and experiences, the Serra-Longo product is much more comfortable expressing himself standing.
Continually switching his stances while moving laterally, Sterling makes himself hard to read or get a beat on. Incorporating his fair share of feints, the 34-year-old traditionally has worked his way into the fight behind a wall of dynamic kicking variety.
From his snapping front kicks and traditional teeps to his Thai kicks that he parlays into sidekicks, Sterling can execute attacks soundly from either stance. Addressing the criticisms of his game at boxing range, the Long Islander has also shown upgrades to his pocket presence.
Attaching more purpose (as well as punches) to his trunk movements, Sterling will now offer everything from checking jabs and hooks to cheeky elbows over the top. Although Sterling’s head can be hard to find at times, his legs and body arguably present more tangible targets that a well schooled striker could pick up on.
Enter O’Malley.
Despite looking like the second coming of Ziggy Sobotka from “The Wire,” there’s a lot more to O’Malley than meets the eye.
Although O’Malley initially struck me as a karate-boxing Conor McGregor clone when he first came off Dana White’s Contender Series, the native of Montana has appeared to use his chameleon-like abilities to piece together a solid striking game.
Competent from both stances, O’Malley flows and counters from the rear side like second nature. Whether he’s slipping on the inside to come over the top from orthodox or taking an angle to counter from southpaw, O’Malley’s ability to put opposition at the end of his punches is impeccable.
I’m also a big fan of O’Malley’s underrated bodywork, which could serve him well in this contest.
Whether he’s throwing crosses or front teeps, O’Malley does a good job of getting his opponent’s defenses to lower in order to open the door for change-ups high. Bodywork could also be useful in dissuading the level-changing threats that Sterling will surely be throwing his way.
That said, I suspect that O’Malley shelves a large part of his leg kicks considering Sterling’s propensity to counter those kinds of attacks.
Point of interest: Protect your neck
Given the champion’s noted ability to become a human backpack, winning wrestling exchanges should be paramount for both fighters.
A two-time All-American wrestler, Sterling has demonstrated a diverse array of takedowns in his arsenal since arriving in the UFC. From reactive shots in the open to chaining to and from single-legs in the clinch, the 34-year-old challenger has shown that he can hit crafty finishes on the feet when he needs to.
But between Sterling not being beyond getting stuffed to O’Malley’s potential improvements, I’ll be curious to see how the wrestling shakes out this Saturday.
Despite surrendering takedowns to lesser wrestlers in past fights, O’Malley has shown to make some improvements in the grappling department.
Aside from seeming to have a better understanding when it comes to utilizing underhooks and whizzers, O’Malley really seems to be applying his athleticism in the scrambling department. Whether O’Malley is attempting switches that parlay into Granby rolls or just simply looking to control a wrist and stand, the 28-year-old clearly has been putting work into that part of his game.
I suspect that O’Malley can also get off some serious ground-and-pound given his long frame and striking prowess, but I doubt that he’ll want to engage with someone like Sterling for long.
A wrestler who’s not afraid to fight out of bad positions, Sterling shows no problems when having to attack or create scrambles off of his back. And once touching down on the mat, Sterling’s funky flow comes even further to life.
Melding his wrestling base into his innovative jiu-jitsu, Sterling will combine things like chair-sits into leg weaves and rides, seamlessly climbing the walls of his opponent’s defenses. Not afraid to jump on a back, Sterling also has shown to be content in punishing opponents positionally, landing solid ground strikes when submissions are not available.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Sterling -265 and O’Malley +200 via FanDuel.
Considering the stylistic matchup and the experience differential between these two, I’d say that the odds listed above are more than fair for this fight.
Although an O’Malley knockout on the feet is certainly possible, I still believe that Sterling will need to be careful when committing his neck in case the challenger tries to get cheeky by utilizing a front choke in the chaos. But unless Sterling is severely compromised first, then I have a hard time seeing O’Malley winning by any avenue other than strikes.
That said, I will be curious to see if O’Malley and his team look to change their scrambling and getup tactics for this fight.
Akin to other MMA LAB-trained fighters like Bryan Barberena or Scott Holtzman, O’Malley appears to be hardwired to look for some sort of cross-wrist control as he turns away from his opponent and looks to stand back up.
Despite being a fan of this getup style, there’s no denying the back exposure involved with making it work. And when stacking that up against the back-taking ability of Sterling (who doesn’t even need to complete a takedown to take someone’s back and strangle them), prognosticating success becomes extra difficult.
For that reason, I’ll side with Sterling to survive an early scare or two in order to get this done by second-round submission.
