MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 291.
UFC 291 takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 68-55-4
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.com.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Kevin Holland (-148) vs. Michael Chiesa (+120)
Kicking off the main card in Salt Lake City is a potential welterweight war between Kevin Holland and Michael Chiesa.
Although I don’t disagree with Holland being favored in this spot, I find myself siding with the underdog in Chiesa.
Holland may produce some solid moments on the feet in open-stance affairs, but he tends to crowd his work and allow for grappling scenarios – even when his opponent is hurt.
Although Holland’s losses and controversial fights from the sample above in ole heavy grappling, he tends to have some standout striking moments in open-stance affairs by using variating body and leg kicks and a lead hand to line up his patent right. #TheSouthpawReport #UFC291 pic.twitter.com/ES6psYpeL9
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 28, 2023
Add in Holland’s habit of turtling to his base in scrambles and exposing his back standing, and I’ll pick Chiesa to eventually produce a submission by Round 3.
Tony Ferguson (+310) vs. Bobby Green (-420)
Filling out the main card is a battle between two of my favorite lightweight fighters, Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green.
Neither fighter has received their full bouquets of flowers in my view, so seeing them get some love on the main card in a veteran versus veteran affair heartens me a bit. That said, both men are undoubtedly in the advanced stages of their careers, making this an extra tricky affair to forecast.
I suspect that Ferguson can still make this much more competitive than what the odds are indicating, but I’ll pick Green to edge out a decision by landing the more impactful strikes in the form of counters.
Derrick Lewis (+180) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-225)
Serving as an impromptu main-card offering is a heavyweight encounter between Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Limaa.
Considering that competent strikers have quietly done the best against Lewis, I initially came into this contest leaning toward de Lima by first-round knockout.
However, between Lewis showing up svelt on the scales to de Lima’s untrustworthy history of spontaneously combusting, I find it hard to trust the Brazilian as north of a 2-1 favorite in a heavyweight fight.
Give me “The Black Beast” Lewis to get back on track with a comeback knockout in the second round.
Jan Blachowicz (-115) vs. Alex Pereira (-105)
The co-main event in Utah features a battle between former champions, Jan Blachowicz and Alex Pereira.
Although I initially didn’t like his matchup for Pereira, I believe it’s a much more winnable fight for him after watching the tape.
Blachowicz definitely has the edge in experience and on the ground, but he’s not typically one to enforce grappling fights given that most of his takedowns come in the form of counters by nature. Add in the fact that the former light heavyweight champion also tends to struggle with his stamina when forced to grapple, and I suspect that Blachowicz will have to fight against type if he means to exercise his on-paper advantages in this spot.
Otherwise, on the feet – Blachowicz will be left to deal with a dangerous striker who also knows how to use his jab.
Already submitted my #UFC287 breakdown for this week, but couldn’t help throw this video together after hearing @TeddyAtlasReal talk about the jabbing dynamic between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.
Tacked on George Foreman-Gullick to help illustrate his Pereira comparisons: pic.twitter.com/Clws9Re94N
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 4, 2023
Blachowicz’s kick defense should serve him well in his standing efforts, but I ultimately believe that his cage positioning and propensity to blitz in response to pressure will cost him this Saturday.
I’ll take a flier on Pereira to survive the best of Blachowicz in Round 1 in order to knock him out in Round 2.
Dustin Poirier (-152) vs. Justin Gaethje (+124)
The main event for UFC 291 features a fantastic rematch between two fan-favorite elites, Dustin Poirier and [autotag]Justin Gaethje/autotag].
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I believe that bodywork and directionality will be a big theme for the winner this Saturday.
Gaethje has some brutal bodywork to go along with his crushing leg kicks and has gotten a lot better at sharpening his countering sensibilities under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman. However, counters, bodywork and timing change-ups remain a common culprit for him from a defensive standpoint.
That said, Gaethje is not beyond being taxed via counters for his aggressive leg kicks…
In fact, regardless of the stance pairing, counter striking, bodywork and timing change-ups have been a common culprit for Gaethje throughout his career. #TheSouthpawReport #UFC291 pic.twitter.com/l3Uma98U1G
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 27, 2023
If Gaethje tries to fight more technically off of his backfoot, then he runs the risk of inviting one of Poirier’s most dangerous versions to come out at play: a shifting puncher who does some of his best work whenever his opponent is in between the fence and inner-black octagon lines.
I see Gaethje being particularly live in Round 2, but I’ll take Poirier to score a knockout in Round 3.
