MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 288.
UFC 288 takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN/ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-4
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 37-33-3
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, in which I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So without further ado …
Charles Jourdain (-175) vs. Kron Gracie (+145)
Despite initially leaning toward Charles Jourdain to survive the early storm and potentially finish the fight in round three, I ended up on the side of [autota]Kron Gracie[/autotag].
Gracie is obviously coming off of a three-plus-year layoff that can’t be ignored, I just believe that Jourdain’s aggression and propensity to expose his back could cost him here.
The pick is Gracie via a rear-naked choke in the first round.
Mosvar Evoloev (-1000) vs. Diego Lopes (+600)
Lopes is an incredibly fun action fighter with a solid submission game on the mat, but I suspect that Evloev is a tough matchup for the 28-year-old regardless of preparation.
I’m not sure that Evloev will be able to finish the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Lopes, so I’ll officially take the Russian version of Frankie Edgar to dominate his way to a clear decision win on the scorecards.
Jessica Andrade (-185) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+150)
Andrade may be coming off of a lackluster loss to Erin Blanchfeild, but it’s important to remember that she took that bout on short notice.
If Andrade makes a return to form, then Yan will have to mind the hard hooks and counters from the former champion. That said, Yan has made marked improvements to her counter-striking and grappling since settling in stateside at Team Alpha Male.
I have a hunch that we could get an uncharacteristically slow start, but I’ll ultimately side with Andrade to get back on track by landing the more impactful offerings in order to edge the scorecards her way.
Belal Muhammad (+110) vs. Gilbert Burns (-135)
Not only does the short-notice nature make this five-round affair incredibly difficult to call, but I deeply despise the UFC matchmaking trend of making deserved contenders (who don’t quite hit their marketing standards) kill each other off at the promotion’s convenience. They’re basically being asked to gamble away their current winning streak as well as what could potentially be their last shot at a UFC title.
Although I don’t disagree with Burns being favored to take this one, I find myself leaning toward Muhammad due to the fact that this is a five-round fight.
If Muhammad can avoid being put out by his common culprit of left-sided strikes, then I think that he should be able to defend Burns’ takedowns and pull away with volume down the stretch. The pick is Muhammad by decision.
Aljamain Sterling (+100) vs. Henry Cejudo (-120)
As I said in my in-depth breakdown, this is an incredibly tricky fight to call for multiple reasons.
Aside from the fact that Cejudo is returning from a three-year layoff, both men carry deceptively strange resumes that a critic could poke holes in.
Even though seeing Sterling stymie Cejudo with back controls won’t surprise me, I still find myself slightly siding with the former champion.
If Cejudo is able to dictate the wrestling engagements in this contest, then I suspect that his hard leg kicks and crosses will edge him out rounds in the judges’ eyes. I’ll semi-reluctantly pick Cejudo to win a close decision by securing late rounds.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 288.
