MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 286.
UFC 286 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 21-17-2
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief breakdowns for UFC main cards.
I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado …
Marvin Vettori (-275) vs. Roman Dolidze (+210)
Despite former matchmaker Joe Silva’s bulletproof approach of booking lightweight or featherweight fights to kick off pay-per-views, the current UFC matchmakers are once again looking toward the middleweights to get this party started.
Marvin Vettori, who is looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Robert Whittaker, will take on the Georgian wildman, Roman Dolidze.
Dolidze is a dangerous submission fighter with knockout power in tow, but Vettori is about as unkillable as Blagoy Ivanov.
I’ll take Vettori to take a grinding decision after surviving a weird first round.
Casey O'Neill (-185) vs. Jenifer Maia (+150)
Filling out the main card is an interesting flyweight matchup between Casey O'Neill and Jenifer Maia.
O’Neill will be making her return off of a one-year layoff due to injury, while Maia will be looking to protect her top-10 ranking and perhaps make another run toward to top of the division.
Although my admitted Xtreme Couture bias has me leaning toward Casey, Maia’s counter boxing and clinch game make her a live dog in this spot. That said, I’ll still side with O’Neill’s output and aggression to win the day in what I imagine will be a competitive fight from start to finish.
Gunnar Nelson (-375) vs. Bryan Barberena (+280)
Quietly serving as one of the better offerings on the card is an impromptu welterweight encounter between Gunnar Nelson and Bryan Barberena.
Despite Barberena’s last loss leaving a bad taste in mouths while simultaneously providing a potential blueprint for Nelson, I think this fight could be deceptively closer than the odds are indicating.
Barberena usually is much better about using the cage in conjunction with wrist controls to stand, and the American also offers punishing elbows that have historically wreaked havoc on Nelson.
Don’t get me wrong: Nelson is the deserved favorite and no one should be surprised if he’s able to get to his game early on in this fight. That said, if Nelson fails to finish by the middle of the second round, then that probably means something went wrong for the 34-year-old.
It’s a risky pick, but I’ll ride with the underdog in Barberena to come up big with an upset stoppage in the third round.
Justin Gaethje (+190) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-240)
The co-main event for UFC 286 is a fantastic lightweight showdown between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.
Even though seeing Gaethje as an underdog in a striking matchup may surprise some, most people in the know won’t be shocked to see Fiziev as the favorite in this spot.
Gaethje has made some marked improvements under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman, but I think his body-shot vulnerabilities and propensity to dip hard to his right side will hurt him in this matchup.
Not only does Fiziev punctuate combinations with brutal switch kicks to the body, but the Tiger Muay Thai product also has been fighting more out of southpaw of late.
The pick is for Fiziev to knock Gaethje out with either a head kick or liver kick in the first round.
Leon Edwards (+200) vs. Kamaru Usman (-250)
The main event in London features a rubber match for the welterweight title between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman.
As I said in my in-depth breakdown, the last meeting between these two was a lot more competitive than many seem to remember.
🪡🧵#TheSouthpawReport for #UFC286: (will add to this thread as the week goes on)
• Kamaru Usman is 6-1 against UFC-level southpaws (wins: Yakovlev, Edwards, Maia, RDA, Covington X2; loss: Edwards rematch)
Edwards built on classic SP attacks en route to finding a late finish: pic.twitter.com/nbo1S0LYpi
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 15, 2023
Not only did Edwards build off of classic southpaw attacks en route to finding a late finish, but the English fighter also quietly won all the clinch scenarios that took place from an over-under position.
If Edwards can make some needed corrections to his cage positioning, then no one should be surprised if he’s able to make things even more competitive this time around.
Usman is a great fighter who deserves distinction as the favorite, I just have a hard time knowing where he’s at after sustaining a potentially life-changing knockout at this stage of his career.
Even though a dominant Usman win wouldn’t surprise me, I’m picking Edwards to retain his title by another semi-controversial decision for the record books.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 286.
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