MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 284.
UFC 284 takes place Saturday at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 0-4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 6-8-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Jimmy Crute (-190) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+160)
Death, taxes, and the UFC matchmakers’ commitment to flooding main cards with light heavyweight and heavyweight affairs.
In their defense, this bout between Alonzo Menifield and Jimmy Crute should be intense for as long as it lasts.
Although Crute is coming off of a long layoff due to injury, I believe that he’s more well-rounded and has a higher ceiling than Meinfield at this point in their careers.
Menifiled has momentum, power, and underrated wrestling to boot, but I suspect that a slightly-more conservative Crute is able to wear down the American en route to a third-round submission win.
Justin Tafa (-130) vs. Parker Porter (+110)
Despite this bout between Justin Tafa and Parker Porter being the exact type of matchup that Joe Silva would’ve relegated to the prelims as a dark match, the UFC matchmakers of today’s machine find it fitting for the paid portion of the card.
But putting aside the fact that pay-per-views are getting pricier while the promotion could seemingly care less about quality or card format, this battle will likely be a car accident you don’t want to miss.
Unless Tafa is able to clean Porter’s clock with a check-hook counter early, then I suspect that the American looks to make it ugly and show off his new Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt on the ground. The pick is for Porter to secure a keylock in the second round.
Jack Della Maddalena (-330) vs. Randy Brown (+260)
Filling out the main card is an exciting welterweight encounter between Jack Della Maddalena and Randy Brown.
Even though the odds are a bit inflated, I don’t disagree with Della Maddalena being installed as the designated favorite.
Brown may have more UFC-level experience and a length advantage to boot, but he also has a tendency to fight with low hands and find himself in close affairs.
For that reason, I’ll side with the vicious counters and bodywork of Maddalena to score a knockout in the second round.
Yair Rodriguez (-190) vs. Josh Emmett (+160)
Despite featherweight kingpin, Alexander Volkanovski, fighting on the very same card, the UFC saw fit to set up an interim title fight between Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett.
Even though Rodriguez has only officially won three fights in the last half-decade and Emmett is coming off of a somewhat-disputed winning streak, these are two entertaining fighters who deserve your respect.
As stated in my co-main event breakdown, Emmett has show somewhat suspect defense to kicks (particularly to the legs and body) and spinning attacks.
I actually believe that Rodriguez’s defensive holes are much more glaring, but suspect that the 30-year-old’s durability gets him out of Dodge this weekend. The official pick is for Rodriguez to spark a knockout off of a liver kick in the second round.
Islam Makhachev (-380) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+300)
The main event in Australia features a superfight for the lightweight title between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski.
Although the UFC president couldn’t remember the lightweight champion’s name during his (lack of) promotion for this fight, both Makhachev and Volkanovski are fighters that deserve your respect and attention.
Makhachev’s wrist control:
As I always say, WRIST CONTROL is the unsung hero in all martial arts and Islam Makhachev is a great example to look to in MMA
Post disruptions, wrist-feeds to trips, defensive grip separations that opens up knees, cross-wrist rides for strikes & wrist pins for submission setups pic.twitter.com/LQ1nE4981q
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
Volkanovski’s defensive grappling:
Alex Volkanovski’s counter-grappling notes—love that he uses my favorite MMA getup: half guard to single-leg getups
Doesn’t reap the leg for extra leverage but nails the crucial detail of LOW underhooks BELOW the ass, as this helps thwart front-choke counters/allows re-wrestling pic.twitter.com/emQOSraVXw
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
In fact, I ended up putting some incredibly informational and digestible analysis (like you see above) in my in-depth breakdown of this fight – – which I strongly urge you to check out.
But as far as a pick goes, I ended up siding with the odds-on favorite in Makhachev to win by decision. That said, I believe this battle will be much more competitive than what the betting lines are indicating, as no one should be shocked if Volkanovski is able to pull off the upset.
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