Who’s old enough to remember the WTA’s Big Three (Iga Świątek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina) distancing themselves from the field? Who’s old enough to remember Coco Gauff’s janky forehand and stagnating career? Who’s old enough to remember when the WTA pulled out of autocratic countries citing ethical concerns? The plots change fast in tennis. Within the next week, the WTA is likely to announce that, having left China, it is heading to … Saudi Arabia to stage its year-end soiree. The Big Three come swaddled with question marks, not limping into the fourth major but not thundering, either. And Coco Gauff is back to being the toast of the WTA. She has two new coaches since Wimbledon. She has two new titles since Wimbledon. And—swollen with confidence, comfortable on the big stage—she arrives as a contender to win her first major.
The top 16
1. Iga Świątek
Last year proved she didn’t need to be at her best to win it all, a real breakthrough occasion for generational athletes in all sports. A disappointment at Wimbledon but is now off the grass—her worst surface—and comes in off a loss to Gauff for the first time. The defending champ is beatable. But who will beat her?
2. Aryna Sabalenka
Such a strange year. Played with great courage and precision to win her first major in Australia. Stayed at the top since. But has also lost a welter of close matches she should have won, including at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. But on a fast hard court, the hardest hitter in tennis should be tough to beat. Can she avoid beating herself?
3. Jessica Pegula
The highest-ranked American, male or female, is worthy of so much admiration. She—not unlike Taylor Fritz—is too pragmatic to delude herself into thinking otherwise. You make your reputation, and hers would benefit from moving beyond the quarterfinals. Having won Canada and increasingly comfortable with her role as a towering figure, look for her late in the tournament.
4. Elena Rybakina
Last year’s Wimbledon champion has thoroughly proven her bona fides in 2023. Such a fine player, but some fatigue concerns here. She pulled out of her round-of-16 match in Cincy, and one wonders whether she has the durability for seven matches in the climate and chaos of New York.
5. Ons Jabeur
A finalist last year. Leaving aside questions about her disobedient knee that caused her to play only five full sets since that Wimbledon final, the fundamental question: Does reaching three finals over the past 14 months fire her with confidence? Or does failing to close lead to an accumulation of scar tissue?
6. Coco Gauff
If she’s a hot pick, it’s not just homerism or the recency effect or the USTA’s wishful thinking. There are some serious data points here. Since the disappointing exit at Wimbledon, she’s gone 11–1, winning in D.C. and Cincy. And that forehand is suddenly no longer such a liability. We can debate whether it’s causation or correlation, but after three tournaments, Brad Gilbert is in the running for coach of the year.
7. Caroline Garcia
Mrs. October. A lovely player to watch. Has a fluid game that should translate to the hard court. Sadly, there are enough data points to suggest that she is simply a different (and better) player at conventional tour events than she is at majors. She’s entered 45 majors. She has lost before the quarterfinals 43 times.
8. Maria Sakkari
Beware Greeks bearing gifts. One career title for a player who’s spent so long in the top 10 and made $10 million in prize money. A fine, fun, athletic, versatile player. But her struggles to close matches and crises of confidence have limited her success.
9. Markéta Vondroušová
Her career record at the U.S. Open is only 5–4. Then again, she was 1–4 entering Wimbledon … and did a convincing Martina Navratilova impersonation to win the whole damn tournament. The Czech comes in riding a seven-match winning streak at majors and a raft of confidence. Hard to imagine she’s winning another major in 2023, but credit her not just for a top-10 ranking but also for winning five hard-court matches coming in.
10. Karolína Muchová
Welcome to the top 10. After her run to the Roland Garros finals, the immediate consensus was this: “She can do this on other surfaces.” Her run to the Cincy finals last week supports that. Still durability concerns, but, man, can she play.
11. Petra Kvitová
Her first major as a married woman. Her Miami title bodes well, suggesting she can still win big events. But she’s openly admitted that the chaos of New York doesn’t particularly suit her. Never been to a U.S. Open semis (but has been to the fourth round seven times).
12. Barbora Krejčíková
Czechs keep coming. This one has been slumping over the past six months or so. But her versatility and net skills ought to translate well. And she is back with Kateřina Siniaková after a tournament off and they are the faves to win doubles.
13. Daria Kasatkina
As a tennis player, few others have more gears and options. Few players generate less power on their serve. Hard, therefore, to see her getting through seven opponents with that punchless serve.
14. Liudmila Samsonova
Perhaps the best player you’ve never seen. Certainly the best player born above the Arctic Circle. A fine athlete whose ascent includes a run to the Montreal final, which entailed wins over Sabalenka and Rybakina. If you’re in the market for a dark horse, you could do a lot worse.
15. Belinda Bencic
Rublevian near-beer vibes. A fine player week to week, but a less credible player at majors.
16. Veronika Kudermetova
Lost to a 43-year-old woman in her previous match. O.K., it was Venus Williams. But still, not exactly presaging success in New York.
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
Assorted seeds 17–32
17. Madison Keys
Former finalist (over)due for a smashing major.
18. Victoria Azarenka
Two-time major champ—and three-time finalist in New York—is still at it. Three years ago, she came within a set of winning the title.
19. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Brazilienne cracked the top 10 after a swell run in Paris, the first time she went beyond the second round of a major. (Trivia: the last player to beat Naomi Osaka.) Big game, big personality and if she’s winning on the biggest stages, there’s big potential here.
20.Jeļena Ostapenko
Yes, we come for the handshakes—or random palms, while looking away. But it can be preceded by brilliant tennis. (Digression: Could we all agree that there’s something weirdly compelling about players who don’t care if you—fans, opponents, Earth, the other seven planets—like them?)
21. Donna Vekić
A mature, big-slugging player who knows how to win matches.
23. Qinwen Zheng
Jump on the bandwagon now while seats are still available.
26. Elina Svitolina
A Week 2 player at two straight majors. (And a former U.S. Open semifinalist.)
Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
Dark-horse pasture
Danielle Collins: Quick, name the last American to reach the finals of a hard-court major. A strong summer surge put her only one spot from seeding.
Sloane Stephens: You know the rules … all former winners get mentioned.
Alycia Parks: A top-five server.
Paula Badosa: If her top-five ranking was excessive, her sub-40 ranking is not indicative of how good she is.
Leylah Fernandez: Caught lightning in a bottle two years ago and nearly won the title. Hasn’t come close to replicating that result, but still a dangerous player.
Mirra Andreeva: A middle weekend player at two straight majors—the only two she’s played since reaching the 2023 junior *girls* final. Can she keep it going in New York?
Alizé Cornet: A consummate professional in what is likely her final major.
Venus Williams: Multiple U.S. Open champ gets mention—even when said titles occurred (and this is nuts)—more than 20 years ago.
First-round matches to watch
Venus vs. Badosa: A rough first outing for both
Pegula vs. Camila Giorgi: Steady vs. erratic
Fernandez vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova: Big upset possibility for 2021 finalist
Upset special
Sloane Stephens d. Haddad Maia
Doubles winners
Taylor Townsend and anyone!
Semis
Gauff d. Rybakina
Sabalenka d. Svitolina
Finals
Gauff d. Sabalenka
